.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,223]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I was thinks more towards what is presently owed and still on the books.

As you suggested, I'll find out on my own.

Well, owed is owed, and interest alone from ww2 would stager the mind. Time for bed, niterzzzzzzzzzz

[ronwagn + 6,290]

14 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I'm not missing a thing!

Tell me, at the end of the day, does supplying more of a commodity, on an already flooded market, increase or decrease the price of the commodity. Regardless of free market economics.

Demand for oil is 'soft' at the moment, pumping more oil into the system will tend to drive the price DOWN. This is not rocket science!

As far as the shale oil industry is concerned, driving the price down would narrow any 'margins' they were operating on.

Tell me I'm wrong...

It depends on the Big Picture. You are looking at what is good for oil corporations, and smaller service companies etc. That is important in Texas and Oklahoma. I am looking at how it lessens the influence of Russia and the Middle Eastern  countries that are overly dependent on oil profits. It helps China and India, and all other oil importing countries. It is also a big help to middle class and poorer Americans that buy gasoline at the pump and people in all oil importing countries. Profits for corporations will be more difficult but there is no guarantee that any capitalist will make a profit, except most farmers who are caught in the middle of a trade war. They cannot be ignored because they supply our most vital needs. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

6 hours ago, James Regan said:

 

Lets drive the price of oil into the ground then sell it for peanuts, there are some smart folks on this forum...

..... Depends if you are in the oil industry or not for perspective eh?  I think half the posters on this forum sell no products to oil industry or work in the industry itself.  I sell a tiny amount of product to the oil service industry side of things and why I went in search of websites like this to understand my possibilities better.  Was wonderful for a while, now it is just... meh

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

44 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

It depends on the Big Picture. You are looking at what is good for oil corporations, and smaller service companies etc. That is important in Texas and Oklahoma. I am looking at how it lessens the influence of Russia and the Middle Eastern  countries that are overly dependent on oil profits. It helps China and India, and all other oil importing countries. It is also a big help to middle class and poorer Americans that buy gasoline at the pump and people in all oil importing countries. Profits for corporations will be more difficult but there is no guarantee that any capitalist will make a profit, except most farmers who are caught in the middle of a trade war. They cannot be ignored because they supply our most vital needs. 

I am not looking at the big picture or the small picture Ron, all your points are valid. All I am saying is that if you pump more oil into an already over-supplied market with no appreciable increase in demand....the price of oil will fall.

Whoever that benefits or hamstrings, I'll leave that to others.

There has got to be a price for WTI below which the shale oil players cannot operate at either a profit or at a level to attract further investment. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

5 hours ago, Wastral said:

..... Depends if you are in the oil industry or not for perspective eh?  I think half the posters on this forum sell no products to oil industry or work in the industry itself.  I sell a tiny amount of product to the oil service industry side of things and why I went in search of websites like this to understand my possibilities better.  Was wonderful for a while, now it is just... meh

Your in the right place then, only you can make the call if it’s worth while or not. Go back through your posts your obviously intelligent but also are not afraid to give your heart felt opinion when required.

People come and go, forgive me but what does “meh” mean?

Plenty to learn here mixed with a sprinkling of banter, no different from all forums.

Respectfully James 

[James Regan + 1,776]

10 hours ago, SKEP said:

Dualie 

I learned a new word today

So what is your take on US mentality.

 

My take after working my whole life with American oil companies and Americans in the oil business also racing motorcycles with American in America and in Europe. Americans are very patriotic especially in the Oil Business, depends if your from the oil producing areas or not.

Some of my greatest friends are Americans real brothers.

The best companies I have worked for are American hands down excellent.

Spent my whole life working around the globe (not America) in oil exploration, drilling other countries oil for the gain of the USA.

Now we see this secular drive to exploit the reserves of US regional oil with a veracity that seems to give the finger to the rest of the planet and institutions such as OPEC who were fundamental in the US being in the position they are today.

So my take away is not to put yourselves in a position possibly in the future by alienation, we don’t know what will happen and the oil industry should not be battling ie USA against OPEC, it won’t have a good ending.

[SKEP + 229]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

My take after working my whole life with American oil companies and Americans in the oil business also racing motorcycles with American in America and in Europe. Americans are very patriotic especially in the Oil Business, depends if your from the oil producing areas or not.

Some of my greatest friends are Americans real brothers.

The best companies I have worked for are American hands down excellent.

Spent my whole life working around the globe (not America) in oil exploration, drilling other countries oil for the gain of the USA.

Now we see this secular drive to exploit the reserves of US regional oil with a veracity that seems to give the finger to the rest of the planet and institutions such as OPEC who were fundamental in the US being in the position they are today.

So my take away is not to put yourselves in a position possibly in the future by alienation, we don’t know what will happen and the oil industry should not be battling ie USA against OPEC, it won’t have a good ending.

First I have no sympathy for OPEC.  MOST OPEC members have always looked out for themselves.  If you think Saudis help US out of the goodness of their heart you are wrong. They don't do us any favors.

I remember interviews when Saudi oil minister said, "We need $100 bbl oil so we can fund our social programs.  That's a fair price".  

Or an OPEC Official saying oil will go to $200 barrel, with a big grin on his face. This when it costs them $2.00 to get the oil out of the ground. 

OPEC has flooded oil market 5 times since 1970s to squash US production. That's abuse of a Cartel. Who needs friends like that. It worked the first 4 times . Not the 5th. 

Then they flaunt extravagant expenditures. They need it for social programs ? ? ?  . the 18000 princes that drive new European $500,000 sports cars, never work is not a social program . THE FINANCING OF THE 911 slaughter of 3000 innocent American is a social program ?

Some social program ? Please spare me

Saudis need $85 oil so there is not another coup attempt from within. Next time might be successful. 

I don't understand how people fail to understand basic economics.  I guess they may have a business that was involved, was invested in shale or might be a land owner leasing mineral rights. Things change.

Party is over.  Not just shale but oil at large.  Oil industry will be around for long time, but the days where Saudis can sell $2.00 oil for $120.00 will never return. 

Electric Vehicles are real, they're coming.  They will hit an inflection point when next generation batteries hit market in 4 or 5 years.

Much of oil goes to fuel.  The oil majors know this.  OPEC knows this. 

Shale shake out next year 2020.  

OPEC can make money down to $10 bbl.  But those 18000 princes might have to get a job to by gas for their $500,000 sports cars. .  US has spent trillions trying to keep peace in Mideast.  Why ? 

Russia goes around the world being an antagonist siding with anybody to frustrate US efforts. Without oil and gas Russia is a third world country with nukes.

China benefits from lower oil prices.

The US economy benefits from low oil prices.  The economic benefits from low oil prices far outweigh the benefits of high oil prices unless you live in Texas.  

Don't understand your empathy for OPEC.  Are you of mideastern heritage ?

 

 

Edited August 12, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 minute ago, SKEP said:

First I have no sympathy for OPEC.  MOST OPEC members have always looked out for themselves first and good.  

I remember interviews when oil minister said," We need $100 bbl oil so we can fund our social programs.  That's a fair price".  

Or an OPEC Official saying oil will go to $200 barrel, with a big grin on his face. This when it costs them $2.00 to get out of the ground. 

OPEC has flooded oil market 5 times since 1970s to squash US production. That's abuse of a Cartel.  

Then the flaunt extravagant ecpenditures. They need it for social programs . . then 18000 princes drive new European $500,000 sports cars, never work AND use it finance 911.  

Soome social program ? Please spare me

I don't understand how people fail to understand basic economics.  I guess they may have a business that was involved, was invested in shale or might be a land owner leasing mineral rights. 

Party is over.  Not just shale but oil at large.  Oil industry will be around for long time, but the days where Saudis can sell $2.00 oil for $120.00 will never return. 

I don’t disagree with the points you are raising but do you understand how the US is in the position it is today, it’s almost hypocrisy. To sight an example The USA plundered Angola’s Huge Kizomba field 3 2 Million Bbls FPSOs being round tripped to Galveston, never went near Angola, all tanker to tanker transfers in international waters, and so on...

The USA is in the position it is today because of deals done with OPEC, we shouldn’t be so naive to expect push back from OPEC.

The USA is certainly benefiting from Sanctions against China and the isolationist actions against Venezuela and Iran. Do you really believe citizen of the USA care about Venezuela or if Iran May make enough Iranium to make a bomb, give me a break.

Its not sustainable to base your regional program and believe it to be robust based on isolation and a weak regional land oil patch, if you were talking about the US GOM Industry it would be more easily digested.

The power of OPEC is not to be underestimated US supplies +/- 1/10 of the worlds Oil and by products and consumes most of it, not a strong position in the world market, USA cannot do this on its own.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,223]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

The power of OPEC is not to be underestimated US supplies +/- 1/10 of the worlds Oil and by products and consumes most of it, not a strong position in the world market, USA cannot do this on its own.

And this is why we are in South America and Africa, Guyana etc. We need friendly nations to help flood the Middle Eastern countries to irrelevancy. The Saudies screwed us and and keep on. Same with Venezuela. Starve em out!!

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/12/2019 at 8:09 AM, James Regan said:

.

Edited August 15, 2019 by SKEP

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

The magic number to keep the shale boom going is $55: Morningstar

 

The assumption that U.S. oil production will continue to rise, undeterred by anything other than some sort of severe disruption, gets questioned in a new report by Morningstar, which lists $55/barrel as the key number to keep the shale boom alive. 

“If prices stay above $55/barrel, production will continue to grow in sweet spots like the Permian Basin,” according to the August 5 report, written by Morningstar oil and products research director Sandy Fielden. There are other basins that aren’t “sweet spots,” Fielden writes, citing the Oklahoma Cana Woodford play and to some degree North Dakota’s Bakken because of the long distance to export ports. “So if prices drop below $55 for a sustained period, then the current production stall could turn into a bust. As soon as production starts to fall, exports will follow suit.”

West Texas Intermediate on the CME on Monday dropped almost $1/b to settle at $54.69. While prices settled below $55 on August 1 after a big trade war-created selloff, the fact is that WTI prices have not been consistently less than $55 since late June. 

In a telephone conversation, Fielden was asked about the report’s lack of a mention of another fact that some analysts are forecasting could result in a reversal in U.S. production growth – a tightening of the credit lines of the shale drillers. The continuation of that drilling, Fielden said, “boils down to the break-even point,” which is $55. And while many banks are tightening their financing to the independent drilling sector, Fielden noted that “Chevron and ExxonMobil are loosening their purse strings. Somebody is going to go in and get the oil if it’s above $55,” he said.

The biggest issue will be whether demand justifies growing supplies and prices adequate to keep the drilling boom alive. “If demand is growing and supplies tighten – helped by sanctions and the OPEC curbs –  then the resulting higher prices will support the shale production/export cycle,” the report said. 

 

Geopolitics holds two possibilities, according to the report, one in which OPEC and Russian-led non-OPEC restraints fall by the wayside and “new demand doesn’t absorb surplus production,” leading to a weakening of prices. If that happens, “we can expect another price crash along the lines of that seen in 2015,” though the lowest part of that crash actually came in 2016 when WTI bottomed at less than $30/b. But “that is not a scenario OPEC or its partner Russia relish, and they have shown strong discipline over the past three years.” 

The biggest risk then comes from weaker demand, according to the report, with the U.S.-China trade dispute the most likely force that would cause it to crater. 

Whether U.S. output is declining is a subject of some debate. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) puts out a weekly number. In its most recent weekly report, after U.S. production got hammered by Tropical Storm Barry in July and output was knocked down to an estimated 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d), the EIA reported last week that it was back up to 12.2 million b/d.

But in the most recent monthly EIA report, released last week for May data and considered to be more accurate, output was listed at just over 12.1 million b/d, down slightly from April. More notably, that full month figure was under the weekly numbers produced that month – two weeks when it was reported at 12.2 million b/d, one week at 12.1 million b/d, one week at 12.3 and one week at 12.4. (The report is released Wednesdays and there were five Wednesdays in May.) The final numbers, therefore, were significantly less than what the weekly numbers were projecting.

Whether the oil supply boom is at an inflection point is discussed in the Morningstar report. “The implication of weaker prices since the end of last year might be that the production boom of 2017 and 2018 is coming to an end and that output and exports will stall in the balance of the year,” the report said. But Fielden cautions that there is new pipeline capacity coming on in the Permian later this year, which will end the producers’ problem of having severely discounted oil in that region because of a lack of takeaway capacity. “And although the drilling rig count is down, rig productivity and total output continue to grow,” the report added.

The report noted that while the traditional Brent/WTI spread is one factor in determining the level of U.S. exports (which can help keep the shale boom going if they are healthy). But a more important number might be the spread between Brent and WTI at the Magellan East (MEH) terminal in Houston, as that is a number that better reflects the value of U.S. domestic crude relative to other global crudes. While the Brent to WTI Cushing spread has been holding near $6.50 to $7.50 per barrel in recent weeks, the spread to WTI at MEH has been far more narrow. It has held at or above $2/b since January 2017, the report said, “a wide enough margin to cover freight costs to Europe and Asia, keeping exports competitive.” 

 

Additionally, the spread didn’t narrow when crude prices collapsed at the end of last year, “indicating that surplus U.S. production still needed to be cleared into overseas markets with an attractive discount.”

 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

So looks like the magic number is 55$/bbl

.

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

And this is why we are in South America and Africa, Guyana etc. We need friendly nations to help flood the Middle Eastern countries to irrelevancy. The Saudies screwed us and and keep on. Same with Venezuela. Starve em out!!

Really? And how about the Billions of Barrels that the USA pillaged from OPEC and non opec countries, do any of you guys understand how big the US footprint is worldwide. I do but it seems as if some people on this forum were drilling sink holes in busted shovel Mississipi there whole lives.

Drill baby Drill LMAO

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, SKEP said:

USA plundered Angola . Come on.

"US in position today . . . "

Thanks OPEC for saving the United States. You're too good to US .  .  .  .   What a joke.

The power of OPEC IS WAY OVER ESTIMATED.  Those days are past. A wounded animal is very dangerous.  Saudis begging Trump to attack Iran.  Not going to happen. al-Khalid said, "OPEC will do whatever it takes" I don't doubt it.  That's scary.

You say " .  .  .  US can not do this on their own"

Can't do what on their own ? 

About time Saudis put up for the $100 Billion year US spends protecting shipping lanes so Mideast can ship oil to China. 

Can Saudi Royal Family survive $50 Brent ?

Senator Graham said "Saudi Arabia wouldn't last two weeks without our (U.S.) support" 

And where does your misguided experience come from?

What do you do in our industry?

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/12/2019 at 11:32 AM, James Regan said:

.

Edited August 15, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, SKEP said:

I can not say

EToro oil trader?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

8 hours ago, James Regan said:

Your in the right place then, only you can make the call if it’s worth while or not. Go back through your posts your obviously intelligent but also are not afraid to give your heart felt opinion when required.

People come and go, forgive me but what does “meh” mean?

Plenty to learn here mixed with a sprinkling of banter, no different from all forums.

Respectfully James 

AH, I just read my post and yours and the typo bug bit again.  Or in this case, the change the subject bug, but forgot to tell the reader I changed the subject.  =)  In this case the "meh" was about the possibility of making even more money selling to the oil service sector. 

"meh" is a sound you make out of your throat.  ~do not care.  Not great, not horrible, just ~meh, in between. 

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/12/2019 at 3:00 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

.

Edited August 15, 2019 by SKEP

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/12/2019 at 3:00 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

.

 

Edited August 15, 2019 by SKEP