Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

7 hours ago, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

I think US should focus on reducing petroleum consumption.
I'm not talking about higher engine efficiency rules, but some kind of "market" mechanism to discourage petroleum consumption.
It seems like, the price of oil has little effect on how much oil is consumed in the US.
Perhaps the US should go to a rationing system, to limit selling of petroleum products.
Something to encourage very frugal use of petroleum.
Or ban buying/selling some inefficient engines/vehicles, unless the person has a permit.
I think the US has potential to make a huge reduction in petroleum consumption,
if Americans could be "persuaded" to waste less petroleum, especially on transportation.

 

Can each country force their citizens to use less oxygen? eat less food? drink less water? lower their standard of living? using less of anything?

[D Coyne + 305]

On 8/20/2019 at 1:43 AM, Boat said:

Did you know in 2013 Permian wells averaged less than 100 barrels per day? Today that average is around 775. There are charts showing how every year the average is growing. Then the decline curve disinformation campaign. Lol Ultimate production blows away older wells. Don’t let those percentage clowns fool you. A lot more oil is produced initially and way more over the life of a well. I recommend the Drilling productivity report put out by the EIA. They show historical up to current data as a total and by play in cute little charts.

Better info from shaleprofile.com. 

 

When permian well productivity is considered by eur per foot of lateral the productivity is the same from 2016 to 2018.

Peak is likely for US tight oil from 2023 to 2025 under reasonable economic assumptions. 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 8/22/2019 at 2:35 AM, James Regan said:

 

But it will all work out as the USA will soon be buddies with the Taliban - That’s going to be a “Great Deal- Fantastic Deal No one does deals with the Taliban like me”

 

"The media has been spreading terrible lies about them.  Terrible lies. They are great, great people."

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Can each country force their citizens to use less oxygen? eat less food? drink less water? lower their standard of living? using less of anything?

Technically yes.

Rations; you eat less, you drink less, you do less and therefore use less oxygen and life sucks!

It's been done.

Edited August 23, 2019 by Enthalpic

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

2 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Technically yes.

Rations; you eat less, you drink less, you do less and therefore use less oxygen and life sucks!

It's been done.

Yes, called some form of "prison" or "forced camps", eat less, drink less, do less, thrive less, achieve less, live less

Well population control.... less people, more resources for smaller population.

Was the planet designed to be able to sustain billions and billions of people without problems, scarcities and resource competition?

Fossil fuels made it possible for the population to explode and grow and thrive .

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I recommend reading the research made by Art Berman - he recently calculated that the breakeven price for the Permian deposit is around $ 60 while a similar price for shale gas is around at least $ 2.5 per mbbt and $ 3 for future production.

Permian =59,48 

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1156912461632671744

Bakken 62

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1156984538922463237

Shale gas

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1162315672363372544

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1162085834507673600

Its serious calculation and  you can see also  methodology.

In my opinion, these calculations sound sensible but at the same time undermine  thesis about a significant decrease in costs on the Permian field and are at the same time higher than other calculations in recent months and years.

 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Tomasz

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

The only way Uncle Sam cuts production is if any of these people get to become President

1) Any single one of the 2020 Democratic candidates in the flock of 2020 hopefuls.

Any one of those wins, all the shale naysayers will be loving it , so will OPEC, Russia and Venezuela.

I would expect all new drilling permits onshore will be under moratoriums of some kind or the other, offshore leasing will be a distant memory, there will be blanket bans for offshore production, Alaska will be a shut in for new and future production, existing leases both onshore and offshore will be scrapped and more than likely we will be paying

1) A green energy growth and incentivizing tax

2) A Greed New D(st)eal tax

3) Carbon Responsibility of America Penalty (CRAP) Tax

These folks will make sure we end up paying 5-7$/gal for gasoline and probably 50-60% more for home heating and cooling for natgas. ICE vehicles will be taxed and penalized to make them out of reach for most , ultimately leading to a ban of ICE vehicles.

 

Food will skyrocket and these people will force the prices of meat into orbit by

1) Extreme taxation of dairy and cattle and livestock farmers, poultry farmers

2) Commercial agri costs will sky rocket by taxation on fossil fuels and phaseout of fossil fuels and shoving Greed New D(st)eal and the shortage and costs of fertilizers and related agri chems

3) Laws banning and restricting poultry, dairy and livestock farming

 

 

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

40 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

 

Any one of those wins, all the shale naysayers will be loving it , so will OPEC, Russia and Venezuela.

Só basically we would go back to business as normal and everyone is a winner and US Shale doesn’t crater the oil industry, happy days again.

[Boat + 1,323]

‘Tis twisted logic to say no to more production when a country imports and yes to production from a foreign country who is producing in excess. In fairness to China for example they should hire American farmers to teach them how to grow food and import less. If China then grew more food but still imported food. I would not tell them they are flooding the world market. Comprahenda?

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

2 hours ago, James Regan said:

Só basically we would go back to business as normal and everyone is a winner and US Shale doesn’t crater the oil industry, happy days again.

Those would not be happy days!!!!! if you are paying 5-7$ /gal for gasoline and costs of everything goes up.

Maybe where you come from , it maybe  but not here not for us here in the US .

[James Regan + 1,776]

4 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Those would not be happy days!!!!! if you are paying 5-7$ /gal for gasoline and costs of everything goes up.

Maybe where you come from , it maybe  but not here not for us here in the US .

+/- $4.10USD a Gal here in Brasil but we have many other types of fuel available, GNV, alcohol Bio Diesels, etc. but we don't drive massive trucks with huge consumption requirements, for this reason Brasil has been free from Petroleum shackles for some years.

With all the respect possible I don't think the USA should be flooding the market with oil and its plans for world domination using this medium is going to end up in tears, for whom I'm not sure but something will give.

"After years of waiting for huge profits, investors are growing weary. Shale production has never been higher, and continues to break new records. At the same time, the financial performances are uninspiring."- I don't get it, why bet all on Black on a roulette wheel with a wonky spindle.....

Edited August 24, 2019 by James Regan

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

10 hours ago, James Regan said:

+/- $4.10USD a Gal here in Brasil but we have many other types of fuel available, GNV, alcohol Bio Diesels, etc. but we don't drive massive trucks with huge consumption requirements, for this reason Brasil has been free from Petroleum shackles for some years.

With all the respect possible I don't think the USA should be flooding the market with oil and its plans for world domination using this medium is going to end up in tears, for whom I'm not sure but something will give.

"After years of waiting for huge profits, investors are growing weary. Shale production has never been higher, and continues to break new records. At the same time, the financial performances are uninspiring."- I don't get it, why bet all on Black on a roulette wheel with a wonky spindle.....

Yes and the Amazon is burning , years of biodiesel sham!!! worst  scam brought upon the people for green solutions but worst for the environment.

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

On 8/23/2019 at 4:09 PM, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

I think US should focus on reducing petroleum consumption.
I'm not talking about higher engine efficiency rules, but some kind of "market" mechanism to discourage petroleum consumption.
It seems like, the price of oil has little effect on how much oil is consumed in the US.
Perhaps the US should go to a rationing system, to limit selling of petroleum products.
Something to encourage very frugal use of petroleum.
Or ban buying/selling some inefficient engines/vehicles, unless the person has a permit.
I think the US has potential to make a huge reduction in petroleum consumption,
if Americans could be "persuaded" to waste less petroleum, especially on transportation.

 

In principle, I agree with you. But the change has to be tapered. One can't outright ban Petroleum consumption as that van have unwarranted problems with USA financial system. USA Economy has been designed around huge oil consumption. Even in 1980, USA consumed close to 18MBPD oil. USA cities and towns have low population due to them being built wiyh assumption of oil based transportation. USA also has massive debt and these rely on assumption of future profits and sustained consumption. Any reduction in oil consumption will have spiralling effect on transportation and consumption. USA can stabilise finances by printing dollars and causing inflation in order to set the balance sheet right by devaluing all credits and loans. But USA dollar acting as global reserve currency doesn't allow USA to print dollars massively to stabilise the finances after cutting consumption.

Since USA dollar is also the reserve currency of the world due to petrodollar, USA also stands to lose significantly in global trade if its financial system becomes unstable. The petrodollar requires USA to maintain fiscal discipline. Changing the structure of USA financial system by printing dollars can lead to other countries refusing to accept dollars as the reserve currency. Currently, USA is a net importer with current account deficit upto $500 billion a year. This is a massive deficit, amounting to 0.65% of world GDP and hence prevents USA from being able to barter its goods in case dollar is withdrawn from petrodollar. Without USA first substituting its import dependence, any attempt to reduce consumption will lead to collapse of financial system.

There have been several instances in past where countries have survived after drastically altering financial systems. For example, in Germany of 1930s, the Germans were fully supportive of Hitler's promise of restoring German pride and were willing to sacrifice the financial system, lives and their Economy for glory of Germany. Several assets were nationalised, value of money altered to reduce the importance of previous backlogs to focus on defence and manufacturing. Germans were, however, very supportive of it and even cheered Hitler for taking bold steps. But, whether such solidarity can be achieved in the USA is the question. If USA can achieve such solidarity for government to nationalise everything and get people to give up their material assets for American Pride, USA can take bold moves of cutting consumption. Else, it is dangerous and can lead to unforeseen circumstances

Edited August 24, 2019 by kshithij Sharma

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

53 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

In principle, I agree with you. But the change has to be tapered. One can't outright ban Petroleum consumption as that van have unwarranted problems with USA financial system. USA Economy has been designed around huge oil consumption. Even in 1980, USA consumed close to 18MBPD oil. USA cities and towns have low population due to them being built wiyh assumption of oil based transportation. USA also has massive debt and these rely on assumption of future profits and sustained consumption. Any reduction in oil consumption will have spiralling effect on transportation and consumption. USA can stabilise finances by printing dollars and causing inflation in order to set the balance sheet right by devaluing all credits and loans. But USA dollar acting as global reserve currency doesn't allow USA to print dollars massively to stabilise the finances after cutting consumption.

Since USA dollar is also the reserve currency of the world due to petrodollar, USA also stands to lose significantly in global trade if its financial system becomes unstable. The petrodollar requires USA to maintain fiscal discipline. Changing the structure of USA financial system by printing dollars can lead to other countries refusing to accept dollars as the reserve currency. Currently, USA is a net importer with current account deficit upto $500 billion a year. This is a massive deficit, amounting to 0.65% of world GDP and hence prevents USA from being able to barter its goods in case dollar is withdrawn from petrodollar. Without USA first substituting its import dependence, any attempt to reduce consumption will lead to collapse of financial system.

There have been several instances in past where countries have survived after drastically altering financial systems. For example, in Germany of 1930s, the Germans were fully supportive of Hitler's promise of restoring German pride and were willing to sacrifice the financial system, lives and their Economy for glory of Germany. Several assets were nationalised, value of money altered to reduce the importance of previous backlogs to focus on defence and manufacturing. Germans were, however, very supportive of it and even cheered Hitler for taking bold steps. But, whether such solidarity can be achieved in the USA is the question. If USA can achieve such solidarity for government to nationalise everything and get people to give up their material assets for American Pride, USA can take bold moves of cutting consumption. Else, it is dangerous and can lead to unforeseen circumstances

Oh Mr. Sharma, Sharma, Pundit Ji,

I see you have been drinking a lot of Anti-USA Kool-Aid

The US under the current President is not going to nationalize anything, it will be the other way around , the other party politicians keep talking about nationalizing.

I see you dont talk about Uncle Modi's Indian Pride in everything while the Indian economy is going into the tank....

India's petroleum consumption is going up ... will India stop its growth based on petroleum?

So many holes in your anti USA paneer cheese LOL

[shadowkin + 584]

On 8/23/2019 at 2:18 AM, James Regan said:

"If US oil companies were to cooperate to reduce output they would be in danger of cartel like behavior which is illegal in the US."- Correct while in the USA....

Your comment maybe based on transparency and correct ethical practices while in the USA, however your statement is leaning toward being naive ie lets play fair in our back yard, but while in Africa big US oil has been involved in malpractice for decades involving not only illegal transfers of oil resources offshore- like Iran Transfer to from Tanker to Tanker (Angola-Kizomba), organising and funding attempts to overthrow governments (EG).

 Exxon and Chevron in Equatorial Guinea - Riggs Bank ( Washington DC) found guilty of high level corruption in the attempted overthrow of the president https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Equatorial_Guinea_coup_d'état_attempt. Wonga Coup.

Before the Wonga Coup US government operatives were in country on recon as Chevron and Exxon employees, Margaret Thatchers son took the heat for the US where he went underground ( in the USA) after the coup was stopped in Harare. Simon Mann still in Jail in EG

Anyone who has been in this business at the coal face in West Africa knows whats going on.

Cabinda in Angola (loose term) an area annexed from the DRC for what its oil reserves Chevron own a military style base there, in fact its called little America, Chevron assisted the MPLA and UNITA to fight the local power that being FLEK who actually own the mineral rights by birthright.

We could go on and on but don't be eluded that the US IOCs are clean and transparent. The USAs hands have been very dirtied over the years but they just wash them to be able to be seen to be doing the right thing at home, away from home all bets are off.

"Crude Oil is dirty by nature, try cleaning your hands after after being covered in it, the odour takes a long time to leave, thats if any of you have actually seen or smelt it, same goes for the IOC lounge lizards who don't see it"- JR

 

Respectfully

James

I originally quoted your statement about shale companies so that is what I was referencing as far as US oil companies and cartel behavior. You suggested the shale patch "play our part". No one was discussing what US or European companies did outside of their countries but you decided to get a dig in at the US. I never claimed US companies have clean hands nor was this the topic of this thread.

But if you want to look at the history of crimes in Africa I suggest you start with where it all began - Europe.

[James Regan + 1,776]

7 hours ago, shadowkin said:

I originally quoted your statement about shale companies so that is what I was referencing as far as US oil companies and cartel behavior. You suggested the shale patch "play our part". No one was discussing what US or European companies did outside of their countries but you decided to get a dig in at the US. I never claimed US companies have clean hands nor was this the topic of this thread.

But if you want to look at the history of crimes in Africa I suggest you start with where it all began - Europe.

My apologies for getting off topic, not intended to offend.

Will get back to this when I have time.

Respectfully James

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/22/2019 at 1:36 AM, kshithij Sharma said:

Natural gas is mostly monopoly of Russia, Iran, Qatar and USA. USA gas is depleting fast as it is being pumped out at 35 TCF a year. So, USA gas will not last beyond 2035 as total USA gas reserves is 400-500 TCF extractable (out of total 750 TCF Resources).

Secondly, 1 barrel of oil = 6000 cubic feet of natural gas. 1 billion barrel of oil = 6 TCF gas. There is total of 7000 TCF gas reserves of which 50% is in Russia, Iran & Qatar. The total oil reserves excluding Venezuelan and Canadian oil sands is 65 billion barrels. We are consuming 36 billion barrel of liquid fuel a year and extracting 180 TCF gas every year. If we convert all this in terms of gas, we get 400TCF gas per year. The conversion factor for gas to liquid fuel in Fischer Tropsche method is 50%.

There is oil for 20 years usage while the gas is enough for 35 years. The only major reserves of oil after 2035 will be Russia and Muslim states (Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, KSA, Iran, Kuwait, UAE). The only major reserves of gas that will remain after 2035 will be Iranian, Qatari and Russian.

Now, the problem with gas is that its storage is quite difficult, especially for trucks, train, ships and planes which need to travel long distance in a go. These vehicles consume over 50% of fuel currently and only some variety of trucks and few heavy ships can be substituted by gas. So, some amount of liquid fuel will always be needed, at least upto 40-50% of current level. Biodiesel can never make up this much quantity and hence requirement will be for Gas to liquid conversion.

Overall, if we take the current scenario, we will find that the gas reserves & oil reserves will be concentrated in only few hands after 2035 and even if these countries give away gas and oil generously to others without overcharging or arm twisting, the combined use of limited oil and maximum substitution of gas for oil and conversion to liquid fuel, the longevity of fluid energy supply will increase from 20 years to 25 years, which is insignificant. Even natural gas reserves is limited and will run out soon after oil reserves exhaust

My studies have shown me that we have more than a hundred years of natural gas available and that is not including methane hydrates which have far more than that. Biogas is another source. 

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

11 hours ago, ronwagn said:

My studies have shown me that we have more than a hundred years of natural gas available and that is not including methane hydrates which have far more than that. Biogas is another source. 

Biogas is not something in plenty. So, excluding biogas, can you give me some details of Natural gas reserves?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Biogas is only limited by the amount of waste that mankind creates with all of its industries including agriculture and ranching.That is PLENTY! Then you have all the cellulose that could be gathered from roadsides and fallow land, thinning overgrown woodlands, peat bogs, etc. 

Wood gas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_gas

Biogas https://docs.google.com/document/d/1N-TLMeHsKYBCirxS0vbqMGHpU2SmyLuCc7bqp8eYXVM/edit

Largest natural gas fields. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_gas_fields This does not mention many other fields and areas that have not even been explored. Many are offshore. 

There are large finds off of Eastern Africa, Australia, Israel, Cyprus, The Gulf of Mexico, Brazil etc. Great Britain has land sites. 

Coal bed methane is another huge source that can be tapped.

Methane hydrates (clathrates). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate About three times as much natural gas as that which exists on land masses. 

There are also land and ocean vents of natural gas that could be tapped. 

5 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Biogas is not something in plenty. So, excluding biogas, can you give me some details of Natural gas reserves?

A 100 year supply is assured, and probably more like 500 years. 

Biogas in India http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/pydipati2/

 

 

 

 

Edited August 29, 2019 by ronwagn
added reference

[James Regan + 1,776]

May want to consider backing of the throttle a little, no more backing down from the Dark Lord (although he is showing some restraint) but the rest are up for it....

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Abandons-Whatever-It-Takes-Strategy-Boosts-Production.html