Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production

[James Regan + 1,776]

JUST THROW THIS OUT THERE FOR ALL THOSE WHO HAVE A SHORT PARADOXIAL MEMORY..... "Just this in itself is a definition of irony" - Daily MeMe lol.....

Edited August 21, 2019 by James Regan

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

On 8/15/2019 at 5:26 PM, SKEP said:

Answer me this. We're Saudis lying when they say they did not flood market with oil to crush US production in '74, '84-'85, '98 -99, 2014-2015 ?

Remember as Senator Graham said, "Saudi Arabia wouldn't last 2 weeks without our (U.S.) support."

You say Saudi is U.S. friend.  No they are opportunist. 

Saudis did not flood market in 1974, They actually cut production. In 1985, Saudis flooded the market to crush USSR with which Saudis were waging war in alliance with USA. In 2014-15, Saudis raised production because of political settlement with newly elected Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, against whom Saudi Arabia had run vicious campaign. I don't remember any major oil spike in 1998-99. So, Saudis were telling the truth

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

On 8/15/2019 at 7:09 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6567664717312163840?commentUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A(activity%3A6567664717312163840%2C6567676464974663680)&replyUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A(activity%3A6567664717312163840%2C6567689436124020736)

"Randall, good observations, as usual.
The only way that I can see for global oil prices to recover to my preferred magical Goldilocks price of $70 is for U.S. LTO (Light Tight Oil aka Shale Oil) OVERPRODUCTION to scale back.

LTO *overproduction* is killing global oil prices.  It is totally out of the hands of OPEC, and squarely the responsibility of the IRRESPONSIBLE SHALE OIL OVERPRODUCERS to scale back their overproduction.

OPEC is *helpless* in the seemingly neverending onslaught of TOO MUCH U.S. SHALE OIL saturating the markets.

Stubborn LTO nitwits apparently won't learn until large numbers of LTO producers go bankrupt after they singlehandedly force the global price of oil below $50 and it stays there.

Yes, I'm yelling.

When a ship springs a leak, you don't grab a bucket and dump more water *into* the ship.

LTO herd of wild cats feasting on catnip.  Going to be a heckuva hangover for them.

Bring back the Texas Railroad Commission, please, to put some order and restraint back into the global oil markets."

USA is net importer of oil and hence can't flood global markets. USA is compelled to have energy independence and hence has to get net energy import as 0, at least by including Canadian imports.

 

Secondly, the oil price is fixed by geopolitical deals considering various factors like sanctions etc. That is why Europe is now cuting oil consumption despite oil prices going low. This is not at all free market but an adjustment on political levels

On 8/15/2019 at 7:53 PM, SKEP said:

You're saying US should cutback so OPEC can sell $2.00 oil for your $70 magical number.  More lollipops and unicorns.  That's not real world. Adam Smith, "Wealth of Nations".

Amazing how many are drinking the Khalid al-Fahlid cool-aid.

Let free markets do their job.  

Take away the (1) foolish over leverage balance sheets and (2) ridiculous give-away whatever you want royalty payments negotiated by stary eyed shale producers and they all would be profitable at current prices.  

I guarantee Trump will lose 2020 if he goes along with Perry, Hamm, Sheffield, MBS, MBZ, al-Falih.  

Let nature take its course. 

SOCIALIST price fixing to bail out OPEC is irresponsible.

OPEC HAS TRIED TO CRUSH U.S. PRODUCTION 5 TIMES SINCE 1970's.

NOW OPEC AND RICK PERRY WANT TO HELP U.S. SAVE OUR POOR MISUNDERSTOOD SHALE INDUSTRY.

Shale will thrive. Just need to cull the weak sisters.

I understand those that are small producers, small drillers, investors in shale bubble, employed in shale or worked for large multinational that retirement savings have holdings in company stock may hurt a bit . But dumping free market principles for the benefit if a few is wrong. Ludites who damn technology advancements for higher prices for a few priorities are misplaced.

Free Markets are self regulating. Smart management, efficient operations and fiscal responsibility are rewarded.  

Electrification and renewables will soon reach critical mass. The oil industry knows this.  Oil industry will not go away, it will just be smaller at lower prices.  There will be a point in the not to distant future when producers will understand the economics and sell while the going is good. 

Tom , I respect your knowledge and opinions , but you are wrong on this one .

 

There is no free market. Oil is a strategic commodity. Talk of free market when Venezuela, Iran etc are sanctioned is a joke! One can't just exist like barbarians on day to day basis and call it freedom. Oil price was always fixed and so is various technology goods of USA. All of this is linked to politics. Even companies like Intel, Google, SpaceX, Boeing are all political in nature. None of them run on free principles. Whenever government does not like some company, the government will simply find some loophole and impose heavy fines while if the government likes some company, it will only be given a warning for the same mistake. The discretion power, taxation laws are all used to maintain political hold on economy. There never was free economy and will never be free economy.

There will never be renewable energy based society either. Everything in the world does not have substitute. Just because the river runs dry does not mean you can drink sea water

On 8/17/2019 at 3:41 AM, James Regan said:

Oil is a loose term when talking about the US as a net importer its a a broad term that includes crude oil and refined products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuels, and other products; “petroleum” and “oil” are easily confused.

No agenda here other than the fact that the US is flooding the market with LTO and would like the rest of the world to step up and cut production, the problem is the US tight oil industry has no valve installed it will pump until its dead. The fall off from shale play is prolific and unsustainable and in general an unhealthy business model.

Drill baby Drill

USA is net importer and it is only seeking to gain energy independence so that the oil suppliers can't use it as leverage to arm twist USA. USA can't flood market when it is importing oil. USA consumes 21 million barrels of liquid fuels a day. 1 MBPD ethanol, 12 MBPD oil, 6 MBPD NGL (natural gas liquids) and 1MBPD of refinery gains are produced in USA. This amounts to about 20MBPD. So, USA still imports 1MBPD net. It does shuffle oil by importing certain grades while exporting certain other grades, but overall, USA is importing and hence it is not flooding.

13 hours ago, John Foote said:

Saudi leaders are most definitely not beholden to any Iranian mullah. However the radicalized Islam that wants to end the west is not Shia, it's Sunni. Both want to claim leadership of Islam. You can go to church in Iran, you can't do that in KSA. The original oil embargo was KSA, Iran bailed us out, then Iran, KSA bailed us out, and now who cares, we got shale. Not quite so simple, but you get the picture. Neither are allies, but one has always had the political sense/cents to keep folks in the USA making money off them. But they are also far more indirectly responsible for dead Americans and our soldiers over there. We protect them from themselves.

USA is the one taking maximum advantage of Sunnis fanaticism by getting petrodollar deal to help fight the "atheist" USSR. USA supports Sunnis because they are stupid and give freebies to USA in the name of Islam whereas Iranians are shrewd and refuse to pay anything to USA. Iran under Shah was illegitimate regime and hence was subservient to USA. But after revolution, Iran is not allowing USA to take advantage. The amount of resources, mainly free oil in terms of petrodollar given to USA far outweighs the dead soldiers

10 hours ago, Tomasz said:

I will gladly read this forum in about 5 years when small reserves of shale oil with constantly growing production will eventually prove insufficient. I would like to point out to some fanatics of shale oil that its resources are much smaller than in the Middle East countries and OPEC must simply wait out the shale madness which will end or at least stop growing in a maximum of 5 years and then reach an increasing market share at satisfactory prices.

In the US there was a time of gold rush, currently there is a shale oil rush and in a few years time there will be a sober discussion why the last oil reserves were exported below real production costs only in order to become even more dependent on foreign oil imports in the future.

USA does not export oil, but shuffles it by exchanging one oil grade for another. Read my above calculation to see how USA still imports oil. USA has to have energy self sufficiency as otherwise, Arabs have threatened to withdraw from petrodollar citing excessive current account deficit of USA and that USA is taking advantage of petrodollar by simply printing dollars and buying all goods for these printed papers.

Your concern of depleting oil is valid but USA is not doing anything stupid. It is simply out of choice. With current calculation, USA has 60 billion barrel of oil as reserves. This will last about 13 years (2032).

[SKEP + 229]

2 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Saudis did not flood market in 1974, They actually cut production. In 1985, Saudis flooded the market to crush USSR with which Saudis were waging war in alliance with USA. In 2014-15, Saudis raised production because of political settlement with newly elected Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, against whom Saudi Arabia had run vicious campaign. I don't remember any major oil spike in 1998-99. So, Saudis were telling the truth

Revisionist history

I guess 911 never happened ?

[SKEP + 229]

2 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

USA is net importer of oil and hence can't flood global markets. USA is compelled to have energy independence and hence has to get net energy import as 0, at least by including Canadian imports.

 

Secondly, the oil price is fixed by geopolitical deals considering various factors like sanctions etc. That is why Europe is now cuting oil consumption despite oil prices going low. This is not at all free market but an adjustment on political levels

There is no free market. Oil is a strategic commodity. Talk of free market when Venezuela, Iran etc are sanctioned is a joke! One can't just exist like barbarians on day to day basis and call it freedom. Oil price was always fixed and so is various technology goods of USA. All of this is linked to politics. Even companies like Intel, Google, SpaceX, Boeing are all political in nature. None of them run on free principles. Whenever government does not like some company, the government will simply find some loophole and impose heavy fines while if the government likes some company, it will only be given a warning for the same mistake. The discretion power, taxation laws are all used to maintain political hold on economy. There never was free economy and will never be free economy.

There will never be renewable energy based society either. Everything in the world does not have substitute. Just because the river runs dry does not mean you can drink sea water

USA is net importer and it is only seeking to gain energy independence so that the oil suppliers can't use it as leverage to arm twist USA. USA can't flood market when it is importing oil. USA consumes 21 million barrels of liquid fuels a day. 1 MBPD ethanol, 12 MBPD oil, 6 MBPD NGL (natural gas liquids) and 1MBPD of refinery gains are produced in USA. This amounts to about 20MBPD. So, USA still imports 1MBPD net. It does shuffle oil by importing certain grades while exporting certain other grades, but overall, USA is importing and hence it is not flooding.

USA is the one taking maximum advantage of Sunnis fanaticism by getting petrodollar deal to help fight the "atheist" USSR. USA supports Sunnis because they are stupid and give freebies to USA in the name of Islam whereas Iranians are shrewd and refuse to pay anything to USA. Iran under Shah was illegitimate regime and hence was subservient to USA. But after revolution, Iran is not allowing USA to take advantage. The amount of resources, mainly free oil in terms of petrodollar given to USA far outweighs the dead soldiers

USA does not export oil, but shuffles it by exchanging one oil grade for another. Read my above calculation to see how USA still imports oil. USA has to have energy self sufficiency as otherwise, Arabs have threatened to withdraw from petrodollar citing excessive current account deficit of USA and that USA is taking advantage of petrodollar by simply printing dollars and buying all goods for these printed papers.

Your concern of depleting oil is valid but USA is not doing anything stupid. It is simply out of choice. With current calculation, USA has 60 billion barrel of oil as reserves. This will last about 13 years (2032).

I see

1. US uses Sunni to fight atheist Russians 

2. US does not export just exchanges types of oil

3. Free oil from petrodollars out weight dead soldiers.

4. If the river runs dry you can't drink seawater

OK,  let me think about it and I'll get back to you.

Thanks

[Boat + 1,323]

Not to confuse your discussion but 30% of what we call US oil might be foreign oil imported to foreign refineries in the US. It’s hard to find numbers. Then of course the 2.4 mbpd of Canadian oil that has to be refined, mixed or resold by someone. US oil can be confusing.

[JHM + 30]

Drill, baby, drill!

[SKEP + 229]

16 hours ago, James Regan said:

Trump wanted to strangle China on oil ? What are you talking about ?  I guess your right it’s a bit ambiguous I was referring to sanctions against Chinese companies being sanctioned for buying Iranian crude.

A Ducati never, only Honda buddy can’t beat a Jap Pocket Rocket.

Not my House but KSA will survive, time will show us.

Do you really think we only have 8-10 years left? Honestly I just don’t see it ( Shale Patch- No Doubts- Deepwater coming back with vengeance, currently signing rigs for 5 years contracts in Brasil)!

Jamie,

According to Pompeo Iran only exported avg 100K bbls/day in July.  U.S. has no problem producers selling oil to China.  Just not Iran selling to China.

Last week China cancelled August purchase of 5 mm bbls oil from Venezuela. They're listening. Trump and Maduro have announced there are "secret" talks going on. Supposedly, to arrange for Maduro and his henchmen to get immunity from prosecution if they leave the government.  If an agreement is reached it would put 600k to 800k bbls/day back on market in short order. . . .   millions more in the future.  How does OPEC deal with that ? 

As for,u our question,  do I think we only have 8 to 10 years left ?  I said 8 to 10 years of "good" markets.(the truth be knownI thinks it's less)

That's a reference to prices producer receive. Today's closing price is a VERY GOOD PRICE in my opinion.   Plenty of supply, that's the problem. I agree with Morgan Stanley and BNP Parabas that demand plateaus by 2025 and EV's sales take off greatly reducing demand.

Understand, it's not just US Shale that will increase production , thus supply..  Take a survey of your OPEC members, all have made plans to increase production by millions of bbls/day. Many have already signed contracts with service companies.

They see and understand where the market is going.  They understand OPEC had lost its Mojo. 

They all know they will get more dollars per barrel today then they will  if they sell their oil tomorrow. 

Think STRANDED RESOURCES .  . .  . 

.  .  .  .  and in the nearterm lower prices for their oil.  

 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2019 by SKEP

[John Foote + 1,135]

21 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I was referring to the Saudi equivalent of a mullah. 

Sunnis are like protestants in the respect their is no pope or single leader. Shias have the mullah. 

And in both branches, quite a bit of difference in how folks practice.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

USA is net importer of oil and hence can't flood global markets. USA is compelled to have energy independence and hence has to get net energy import as 0, at least by including Canadian imports.

 

Secondly, the oil price is fixed by geopolitical deals considering various factors like sanctions etc. That is why Europe is now cuting oil consumption despite oil prices going low. This is not at all free market but an adjustment on political levels

There is no free market. Oil is a strategic commodity. Talk of free market when Venezuela, Iran etc are sanctioned is a joke! One can't just exist like barbarians on day to day basis and call it freedom. Oil price was always fixed and so is various technology goods of USA. All of this is linked to politics. Even companies like Intel, Google, SpaceX, Boeing are all political in nature. None of them run on free principles. Whenever government does not like some company, the government will simply find some loophole and impose heavy fines while if the government likes some company, it will only be given a warning for the same mistake. The discretion power, taxation laws are all used to maintain political hold on economy. There never was free economy and will never be free economy.

There will never be renewable energy based society either. Everything in the world does not have substitute. Just because the river runs dry does not mean you can drink sea water

USA is net importer and it is only seeking to gain energy independence so that the oil suppliers can't use it as leverage to arm twist USA. USA can't flood market when it is importing oil. USA consumes 21 million barrels of liquid fuels a day. 1 MBPD ethanol, 12 MBPD oil, 6 MBPD NGL (natural gas liquids) and 1MBPD of refinery gains are produced in USA. This amounts to about 20MBPD. So, USA still imports 1MBPD net. It does shuffle oil by importing certain grades while exporting certain other grades, but overall, USA is importing and hence it is not flooding.

USA is the one taking maximum advantage of Sunnis fanaticism by getting petrodollar deal to help fight the "atheist" USSR. USA supports Sunnis because they are stupid and give freebies to USA in the name of Islam whereas Iranians are shrewd and refuse to pay anything to USA. Iran under Shah was illegitimate regime and hence was subservient to USA. But after revolution, Iran is not allowing USA to take advantage. The amount of resources, mainly free oil in terms of petrodollar given to USA far outweighs the dead soldiers

USA does not export oil, but shuffles it by exchanging one oil grade for another. Read my above calculation to see how USA still imports oil. USA has to have energy self sufficiency as otherwise, Arabs have threatened to withdraw from petrodollar citing excessive current account deficit of USA and that USA is taking advantage of petrodollar by simply printing dollars and buying all goods for these printed papers.

Your concern of depleting oil is valid but USA is not doing anything stupid. It is simply out of choice. With current calculation, USA has 60 billion barrel of oil as reserves. This will last about 13 years (2032).

You, like most others on this forum think that petroleum is the only fuel out there. When the petroleum runs out we will be able to run on natural gas. Our entire fleet of ICE vehicles can be converted. We also have the choice of making gasoline out of natural gas. We don't need much diesel, because it is mainly a helper in heavy duty natural gas trucks. We can also use soybean based diesel.Natural gas is much more abundant than petroleum. It is also cleaner and less expensive. I look forward to the changeover. There is probably enough oil to outlive me though. Liquid fuel is more convenient, and it has become an addiction. 

See http://www.ngvglobal.com/

Natural Gas Vehicles https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kM7_6rwI5iG7s1EF1RNuVmFHEGFbteRsPjjzzxx5UTA/edit

[James Regan + 1,776]

6 hours ago, SKEP said:

Jamie,

According to Pompeo Iran only exported avg 100K bbls/day in July.  U.S. has no problem producers selling oil to China.  Just not Iran selling to China.

Last week China cancelled August purchase of 5 mm bbls oil from Venezuela. They're listening. Trump and Maduro have announced there are "secret" talks going on. Supposedly, to arrange for Maduro and his henchmen to get immunity from prosecution if they leave the government.  If an agreement is reached it would put 600k to 800k bbls/day back on market in short order. . . .   millions more in the future.  How does OPEC deal with that ? 

As for,u our question,  do I think we only have 8 to 10 years left ?  I said 8 to 10 years of "good" markets.(the truth be knownI thinks it's less)

That's a reference to prices producer receive. Today's closing price is a VERY GOOD PRICE in my opinion.   Plenty of supply, that's the problem. I agree with Morgan Stanley and BNP Parabas that demand plateaus by 2025 and EV's sales take off greatly reducing demand.

Understand, it's not just US Shale that will increase production , thus supply..  Take a survey of your OPEC members, all have made plans to increase production by millions of bbls/day. Many have already signed contracts with service companies.

They see and understand where the market is going.  They understand OPEC had lost its Mojo. 

They all know they will get more dollars per barrel today then they will  if they sell their oil tomorrow. 

Think STRANDED RESOURCES .  . .  . 

.  .  .  .  and in the nearterm lower prices for their oil.  

 

 

 

You may be right Skippy.... I think before this massive statement occurs we can expect wars to start, serious wars.

The U.S. is set to account for 61 percent of all new oil and gas production over the next decade. A recent report from this organization says that to avoid the worst effects of climate change, “we can’t afford to drill up any oil and gas from new fields anywhere in the world.” This, of course, would quickly cause a global deficit, as the world continues to consume around 100 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil.

Global Witness notes that the industry is not slowing down in the United States, notwithstanding recent spending cuts by independent and financially-strapped oil and gas firms. If anything, the consolidation in the Permian and other shale basins, increasingly led by the oil majors, ensures that drilling will continue at a steady pace for years to come.

It isn’t as if the rest of the world is slowing down either. The global oil industry is set to greenlight $123 billion worth of new offshore oil projects this year, nearly double the $69 billion that moved forward last year, according to Rystad Energy. In fact, while shale drilling has slowed a bit over the past year amid investor skepticism and poor financial returns, offshore projects have begun to pick up pace.

But that trend might turn out to be just a blip. The U.S. is still expected to account of the bulk of new drilling and the vast majority of new production, with much of that coming from shale. Already, the U.S. is the world’s largest producer of both oil and natural gas. And the pace has accelerated in recent years. In 2018, U.S. oil and gas production increased by 16 and 12 percent, respectively. According to the EIA, the U.S. surpassed Russia in terms of gas production in 2011, claiming the top spot, and it surpassed Saudi Arabia in oil production last year.

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

You, like most others on this forum think that petroleum is the only fuel out there. When the petroleum runs out we will be able to run on natural gas. Our entire fleet of ICE vehicles can be converted. We also have the choice of making gasoline out of natural gas. We don't need much diesel, because it is mainly a helper in heavy duty natural gas trucks. We can also use soybean based diesel.Natural gas is much more abundant than petroleum. It is also cleaner and less expensive. I look forward to the changeover. There is probably enough oil to outlive me though. Liquid fuel is more convenient, and it has become an addiction. 

See http://www.ngvglobal.com/

Natural Gas Vehicles https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kM7_6rwI5iG7s1EF1RNuVmFHEGFbteRsPjjzzxx5UTA/edit

Natural gas is mostly monopoly of Russia, Iran, Qatar and USA. USA gas is depleting fast as it is being pumped out at 35 TCF a year. So, USA gas will not last beyond 2035 as total USA gas reserves is 400-500 TCF extractable (out of total 750 TCF Resources).

Secondly, 1 barrel of oil = 6000 cubic feet of natural gas. 1 billion barrel of oil = 6 TCF gas. There is total of 7000 TCF gas reserves of which 50% is in Russia, Iran & Qatar. The total oil reserves excluding Venezuelan and Canadian oil sands is 65 billion barrels. We are consuming 36 billion barrel of liquid fuel a year and extracting 180 TCF gas every year. If we convert all this in terms of gas, we get 400TCF gas per year. The conversion factor for gas to liquid fuel in Fischer Tropsche method is 50%.

There is oil for 20 years usage while the gas is enough for 35 years. The only major reserves of oil after 2035 will be Russia and Muslim states (Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, KSA, Iran, Kuwait, UAE). The only major reserves of gas that will remain after 2035 will be Iranian, Qatari and Russian.

Now, the problem with gas is that its storage is quite difficult, especially for trucks, train, ships and planes which need to travel long distance in a go. These vehicles consume over 50% of fuel currently and only some variety of trucks and few heavy ships can be substituted by gas. So, some amount of liquid fuel will always be needed, at least upto 40-50% of current level. Biodiesel can never make up this much quantity and hence requirement will be for Gas to liquid conversion.

Overall, if we take the current scenario, we will find that the gas reserves & oil reserves will be concentrated in only few hands after 2035 and even if these countries give away gas and oil generously to others without overcharging or arm twisting, the combined use of limited oil and maximum substitution of gas for oil and conversion to liquid fuel, the longevity of fluid energy supply will increase from 20 years to 25 years, which is insignificant. Even natural gas reserves is limited and will run out soon after oil reserves exhaust

Edited August 22, 2019 by kshithij Sharma

[SKEP + 229]

6 hours ago, James Regan said:

You may be right Skippy... I think before this massive statement occurs we can expect wars to start, serious wars.

Maybe, that's why I say U.S. should get out of Mideast

Mideast has been at war for centuries. Doesn't seem they want to change, even for wealth and prosperity. 

Nobody, willing to contribute to U.S. efforts.  Watch them all cry when US pulls out of Mideast.

 

Edited August 22, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

27 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Maybe, that's why I say U.S. should get out of Mideast

Mideast has been at war for centuries. Doesn't seem they want to change, even for wealth and prosperity. 

Nobody, willing to contribute to U.S. efforts.  Watch them all cry when US pulls out of Mideast.

 

“Nobody, willing to contribute to U.S. efforts.  Watch them all cry when US pulls out of Mideast.”

Not 100% correct your “special relationship” Friend the UK is with you, always has been, Australia is also heading that way and Israel’s USS - Golan Heights is anchored ready and willing.

The Middle East has been invaded for millennia all based on financial reasons from the Templar’s to Big Oil under the guise of religion, fighting terrorism or seeking things that didn’t exist. 

Iraq was a farce as was Afghanistan and Syria an excuse to fight the Islamic State in a Country where they should been fighting the Government, what a mess Syria.

Caliphate destroyed? But ISIS currently regrouping, in fact they backed out of Mosul and Raqqa a long time before 2017 , the main players left with huge sums of cash and weapons and went to ground, current rize in attacks show this.

But it will all work out as the USA will soon be buddies with the Taliban - That’s going to be a “Great Deal- Fantastic Deal No one does deals with the Taliban like me”

Cannon Ball Coming 

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

Maybe, that's why I say U.S. should get out of Mideast

Mideast has been at war for centuries. Doesn't seem they want to change, even for wealth and prosperity. 

Nobody, willing to contribute to U.S. efforts.  Watch them all cry when US pulls out of Mideast.

 

Skippy,

"Maybe, that's why I say U.S. should get out of Mideast" - With the current situation regarding the US PRC Trade war it may come to pass, The Middle East is slowly heading East which is not very good news for anyone, we are seeing a serious change in the Geopolitical arena driven by the US sanctions on China and Iran. 

Do you really think its a good idea to lose the middle east to the PRC, which is on the table not a pipe dream.?

The dramatic PRC success can be attributed to the confluence of two major trends:

(1) The quality and relevance of what Beijing can offer to both Iran and the Saudi-Gulf States camp; and

(2) The decision of key Arab leaders — most notably Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud (aka MBS) and his close ally, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (aka MBZ) — to downgrade their traditional close ties with the US, and reach out to Beijing to provide a substitute strategic umbrella.

Hence, the PRC offer to oversee and guarantee the establishment of a regional collective security regime — itself based on the Russian proposals and ideas first raised in late July 2019 — is now getting considerable positive attention from both shores of the Persian Gulf. Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Oman appear to be becoming convinced that the PRC could be the key to the long-term stability and prosperity in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula.

Iran is also considering the expansion of security cooperation with Russia as an added umbrella against potential US retaliation.

If Iran and the Gulf states get in line with each other ie OPEC and then add China into the mix we have have just created a monster that will be hard to defeat, and like it or not the best deal is that China and the US sort out a trade deal. Im no China fan but I don't think anyone sees the current environment as healthy, too many knock on affects becoming apparent daily.

I agree that China needed reeling in but have they been underestimated, it may take someone with Trumps drive but with a serious think tank with their feet well on the ground around him, not DT doing as he pleases based on how he wakes up after a bashing from the Lemon and co in the LameStream news.

Its a complicated time and the scatter affect is now becoming evident.

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Chinas-Ultimate-Play-For-Global-Oil-Market-Control.html

Lets see what pans out......

Edited August 22, 2019 by James Regan

[SKEP + 229]

5 hours ago, James Regan said:

“Nobody, willing to contribute to U.S. efforts.  Watch them all cry when US pulls out of Mideast.”

Not 100% correct your “special relationship” Friend the UK is with you, always has been, Australia is also heading that way and Israel’s USS - Golan Heights is anchored ready and willing.

The Middle East has been invaded for millennia all based on financial reasons from the Templar’s to Big Oil under the guise of religion, fighting terrorism or seeking things that didn’t exist. 

Iraq was a farce as was Afghanistan and Syria an excuse to fight the Islamic State in a Country where they should been fighting the Government, what a mess Syria.

Caliphate destroyed? But ISIS currently regrouping, in fact they backed out of Mosul and Raqqa a long time before 2017 , the main players left with huge sums of cash and weapons and went to ground, current rize in attacks show this.

But it will all work out as the USA will soon be buddies with the Taliban - That’s going to be a “Great Deal- Fantastic Deal No one does deals with the Taliban like me”

Cannon Ball Coming 

What ?  

[SKEP + 229]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

Skippy,

"Maybe, that's why I say U.S. should get out of Mideast" - With the current situation regarding the US PRC Trade war it may come to pass, The Middle East is slowly heading East which is not very good news for anyone, we are seeing a serious change in the Geopolitical arena driven by the US sanctions on China and Iran. 

Do you really think its a good idea to lose the middle east to the PRC, which is on the table not a pipe dream.?

The dramatic PRC success can be attributed to the confluence of two major trends:

(1) The quality and relevance of what Beijing can offer to both Iran and the Saudi-Gulf States camp; and

(2) The decision of key Arab leaders — most notably Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud (aka MBS) and his close ally, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (aka MBZ) — to downgrade their traditional close ties with the US, and reach out to Beijing to provide a substitute strategic umbrella.

Hence, the PRC offer to oversee and guarantee the establishment of a regional collective security regime — itself based on the Russian proposals and ideas first raised in late July 2019 — is now getting considerable positive attention from both shores of the Persian Gulf. Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Oman appear to be becoming convinced that the PRC could be the key to the long-term stability and prosperity in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula.

Iran is also considering the expansion of security cooperation with Russia as an added umbrella against potential US retaliation.

If Iran and the Gulf states get in line with each other ie OPEC and then add China into the mix we have have just created a monster that will be hard to defeat, and like it or not the best deal is that China and the US sort out a trade deal. Im no China fan but I don't think anyone sees the current environment as healthy, too many knock on affects becoming apparent daily.

I agree that China needed reeling in but have they been underestimated, it may take someone with Trumps drive but with a serious think tank with their feet well on the ground around him, not DT doing as he pleases based on how he wakes up after a bashing from the Lemon and co in the LameStream news.

Its a complicated time and the scatter affect is now becoming evident.

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Chinas-Ultimate-Play-For-Global-Oil-Market-Control.html

Lets see what pans out......

What ?

Relax. Go for a ride on your, what do you call it, Jap rocket ?

Edited August 22, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

What ?

Relax. Go for a ride on your, what do you call it, Jap rocket ?

@Rodent how can I block someone, trying hard to be a decent person...... Its becoming like like Chinese SPAM

Edited August 22, 2019 by James Regan

[wrs + 893]

Easy as pie.

Hover your mouse over his icon and then select ignore user and you will select update preferences and he will be gone for you.  Let us know how it works out.

Edited August 22, 2019 by wrs

[SKEP + 229]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

@Rodent how can I block someone, trying hard to be a decent person...... Its becoming like like Chinese SPAM

Sock puppet 

You have been trolling me for a month. I ignore you and you continue to taunt me.  

Do they pay you enough for this work. 

Just leave me alone. 

Your not fooling anyone.

Send ya (again)

[ronwagn + 6,290]

11 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Natural gas is mostly monopoly of Russia, Iran, Qatar and USA. USA gas is depleting fast as it is being pumped out at 35 TCF a year. So, USA gas will not last beyond 2035 as total USA gas reserves is 400-500 TCF extractable (out of total 750 TCF Resources).

Secondly, 1 barrel of oil = 6000 cubic feet of natural gas. 1 billion barrel of oil = 6 TCF gas. There is total of 7000 TCF gas reserves of which 50% is in Russia, Iran & Qatar. The total oil reserves excluding Venezuelan and Canadian oil sands is 65 billion barrels. We are consuming 36 billion barrel of liquid fuel a year and extracting 180 TCF gas every year. If we convert all this in terms of gas, we get 400TCF gas per year. The conversion factor for gas to liquid fuel in Fischer Tropsche method is 50%.

There is oil for 20 years usage while the gas is enough for 35 years. The only major reserves of oil after 2035 will be Russia and Muslim states (Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, KSA, Iran, Kuwait, UAE). The only major reserves of gas that will remain after 2035 will be Iranian, Qatari and Russian.

Now, the problem with gas is that its storage is quite difficult, especially for trucks, train, ships and planes which need to travel long distance in a go. These vehicles consume over 50% of fuel currently and only some variety of trucks and few heavy ships can be substituted by gas. So, some amount of liquid fuel will always be needed, at least upto 40-50% of current level. Biodiesel can never make up this much quantity and hence requirement will be for Gas to liquid conversion.

Overall, if we take the current scenario, we will find that the gas reserves & oil reserves will be concentrated in only few hands after 2035 and even if these countries give away gas and oil generously to others without overcharging or arm twisting, the combined use of limited oil and maximum substitution of gas for oil and conversion to liquid fuel, the longevity of fluid energy supply will increase from 20 years to 25 years, which is insignificant. Even natural gas reserves is limited and will run out soon after oil reserves exhaust

It is hard to answer you except to say that I think all of your data is way off. Natural gas deposits lie in untapped areas all over the world. New finds are enormous. Much is off shore.  My best guess is 100 years, which is a rough estimate by some in the field. You are obviously not considering biogas or methane hydrates either. There is more natural gas in methane hydrate deposits than on all land masses. Just like petroleum, the whole world must be explored before we know how much natural gas is there. 

[shadowkin + 584]

On 8/14/2019 at 2:03 PM, James Regan said:

it’s time to shut in some of that Shale patch guys and play your part.

If US oil companies were to cooperate to reduce output they would be in danger of cartel like behavior which is illegal in the US. 

Overall I think it's in the US best interest to flood the world with oil. Many people rightly criticize KSA, Qatar, Iran, etc in these forums. Do you really want these countries to have more cash to export terrorism?

The quicker we bankrupt this region the better the world will be.

OPEC and Russia didn't cut to 'do their part' they did it because they are oil dependent economies who were losing a lot of cash and they felt it would prop up prices.

[James Regan + 1,776]

14 hours ago, shadowkin said:

If US oil companies were to cooperate to reduce output they would be in danger of cartel like behavior which is illegal in the US. 

Overall I think it's in the US best interest to flood the world with oil. Many people rightly criticize KSA, Qatar, Iran, etc in these forums. Do you really want these countries to have more cash to export terrorism?

The quicker we bankrupt this region the better the world will be.

OPEC and Russia didn't cut to 'do their part' they did it because they are oil dependent economies who were losing a lot of cash and they felt it would prop up prices.

"If US oil companies were to cooperate to reduce output they would be in danger of cartel like behavior which is illegal in the US."- Correct while in the USA....

Your comment maybe based on transparency and correct ethical practices while in the USA, however your statement is leaning toward being naive ie lets play fair in our back yard, but while in Africa big US oil has been involved in malpractice for decades involving not only illegal transfers of oil resources offshore- like Iran Transfer to from Tanker to Tanker (Angola-Kizomba), organising and funding attempts to overthrow governments (EG).

 Exxon and Chevron in Equatorial Guinea - Riggs Bank ( Washington DC) found guilty of high level corruption in the attempted overthrow of the president https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Equatorial_Guinea_coup_d'état_attempt. Wonga Coup.

Before the Wonga Coup US government operatives were in country on recon as Chevron and Exxon employees, Margaret Thatchers son took the heat for the US where he went underground ( in the USA) after the coup was stopped in Harare. Simon Mann still in Jail in EG

Anyone who has been in this business at the coal face in West Africa knows whats going on.

Cabinda in Angola (loose term) an area annexed from the DRC for what its oil reserves Chevron own a military style base there, in fact its called little America, Chevron assisted the MPLA and UNITA to fight the local power that being FLEK who actually own the mineral rights by birthright.

We could go on and on but don't be eluded that the US IOCs are clean and transparent. The USAs hands have been very dirtied over the years but they just wash them to be able to be seen to be doing the right thing at home, away from home all bets are off.

"Crude Oil is dirty by nature, try cleaning your hands after after being covered in it, the odour takes a long time to leave, thats if any of you have actually seen or smelt it, same goes for the IOC lounge lizards who don't see it"- JR

 

Respectfully

James

Edited August 23, 2019 by James Regan

[Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas + 96]

On 8/22/2019 at 9:36 AM, kshithij Sharma said:

Natural gas is mostly monopoly of Russia, Iran, Qatar and USA. USA gas is depleting fast as it is being pumped out at 35 TCF a year. So, USA gas will not last beyond 2035 as total USA gas reserves is 400-500 TCF extractable (out of total 750 TCF Resources).

Secondly, 1 barrel of oil = 6000 cubic feet of natural gas. 1 billion barrel of oil = 6 TCF gas. There is total of 7000 TCF gas reserves of which 50% is in Russia, Iran & Qatar. The total oil reserves excluding Venezuelan and Canadian oil sands is 65 billion barrels. We are consuming 36 billion barrel of liquid fuel a year and extracting 180 TCF gas every year. If we convert all this in terms of gas, we get 400TCF gas per year. The conversion factor for gas to liquid fuel in Fischer Tropsche method is 50%

I think US should focus on reducing petroleum consumption.
I'm not talking about higher engine efficiency rules, but some kind of "market" mechanism to discourage petroleum consumption.
It seems like, the price of oil has little effect on how much oil is consumed in the US.
Perhaps the US should go to a rationing system, to limit selling of petroleum products.
Something to encourage very frugal use of petroleum.
Or ban buying/selling some inefficient engines/vehicles, unless the person has a permit.
I think the US has potential to make a huge reduction in petroleum consumption,
if Americans could be "persuaded" to waste less petroleum, especially on transportation.

 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas

[James Regan + 1,776]

32 minutes ago, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

Something to encourage very frugal use of petroleum.
Or ban buying/selling some inefficient engines/vehicles, unless the person has a permit.

In a word NO....

https://youtu.be/LU-ynRoqDEs

You are very close to igniting the Blue Touch Paper.

Happy Friday folks

Edited August 23, 2019 by James Regan