Long Range Attack On Saudi Oil Field Ends War On Yemen

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Hoo boy, this is a scattershot opinion article, overflowing with political rhetoric.  

*But*  - - - it nails home several stinging points that most media are choosing to ignore.

The Saudi Arabia vs Iran proxy war is significantly altered, now that Houthi / Iranian drones can strike at will deep inside Saudi territory and surrounding states, at high value oil and economic targets.

 

Long Range Attack On Saudi Oil Field Ends War On Yemen

Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen. It has no defenses against new weapons the Houthis in Yemen acquired. These weapons threaten the Saudis economic lifelines. This today was the decisive attack:

Drones launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked a massive oil and gas field deep inside Saudi Arabia’s sprawling desert on Saturday, causing what the kingdom described as a “limited fire” in the second such recent attack on its crucial energy industry. 
…
The Saudi acknowledgement of the attack came hours after Yahia Sarie, a military spokesman for the Houthis, issued a video statement claiming the rebels launched 10 bomb-laden drones targeting the field in their “biggest-ever” operation. He threatened more attacks would be coming.

Today’s attack is a check mate move against the Saudis. Shaybah is some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) from Houthi-controlled territory. There are many more important economic targets within that range:

The field’s distance from rebel-held territory in Yemen demonstrates the range of the Houthis’ drones. U.N. investigators say the Houthis’ new UAV-X drone, found in recent months during the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen, likely has a range of up to 1,500 kilometers (930 miles). That puts Saudi oil fields, an under-construction Emirati nuclear power plant and Dubai’s busy international airport within their range. Unlike sophisticated drones that use satellites to allow pilots to remotely fly them, analysts believe Houthi drones are likely programmed to strike a specific latitude and longitude and cannot be controlled once out of radio range. The Houthis have used drones, which can be difficult to track by radar, to attack Saudi Patriot missile batteries, as well as enemy troops.

The attack conclusively demonstrates that the most important assets of the Saudis are now under threat. This economic threat comes on top of a seven percent budget deficit the IMF predicts for Saudi Arabia. Further Saudi bombing against the Houthi will now have very significant additional cost that might even endanger the viability of the Saudi state. The Houthi have clown prince Mohammad bin Salman by the balls and can squeeze those at will.

The drones and missiles the Houthi use are copies of Iranian designs assembled in Yemen with the help of Hezbollah experts from Lebanon. Four days ago a Houthi delegation visited Iran. During the visit Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for the first time publicly admitted that the Houthi have Iran’s support ...

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

This could get very interesting, very quickly. Much will depend on how Saudi and her allies respond to this attack. 

From a Saudi perspective, a response IS required.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

This could get very interesting, very quickly. Much will depend on how Saudi and her allies respond to this attack. 

From a Saudi perspective, a response IS required.

A more nuanced and detailed analysis in this article below.  This really does look like a game changing scenario for Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis Learn the Term “Asymmetric Response”

...

The attack conclusively demonstrates that the most important assets of the Saudis are now under threat. This economic threat comes on top of a seven percent budget deficit the IMF predicts for Saudi Arabia. Further Saudi bombing against the Houthi will now have very significant additional cost that might even endanger the viability of the Saudi state. The Houthi have clown prince Mohammad bin Salman by the balls and can squeeze those at will.

The drones and missiles the Houthi use are copies of Iranian designs assembled in Yemen with the help of Hizbullah experts from Lebanon.

The Houthis attacked the Shaybah oilfield and refinery complex which produces more than 1 million barrels of oil per day. This is a direct attack on the Saudis’ ability to function as a somewhat sustainable economic and political power.

Bernard may be overstating the significance of this attack in the short-run as it is very possible that there will not be any suing for peace next week or anything. But the threat is real and if it is as indefensible as he suggests then it will be only a matter of time before the operation in Yemen comes to a close.

More importantly this incident plays back into what myself and others have said since the June 20th incident with the U.S. drone. If President Trump is going to pursue war with Iran and continue to pressure their exports to zero then Iran will have no choice but to asymmetrically attack assets across the region and destabilize not only the oil markets but the political futures of major allies of the U.S. in the region.  ...

[James Regan + 1,776]

Very interesting indeed, what’s required here is for all unilateral forces to leave the area and see how these countries duke it out without outside support.

But we all know this won’t happen as we all know who will be target number 1 in the asymmetric war, Israel. 

The USA will be forced again to get into the mix either covertly or in their face, too much US interest in the region to let Iran take on the KSA and UAE...

If this kicks off we will definitely see a fast rise in market price which will fall nicely for the US oil plays.

Very interesting but damaging scenario, wars are not good but have always been part of the oil industry.

 

[SKEP + 229]

7 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

A more nuanced and detailed analysis in this article below.  This really does look like a game changing scenario for Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis Learn the Term “Asymmetric Response”

...

The attack conclusively demonstrates that the most important assets of the Saudis are now under threat. This economic threat comes on top of a seven percent budget deficit the IMF predicts for Saudi Arabia. Further Saudi bombing against the Houthi will now have very significant additional cost that might even endanger the viability of the Saudi state. The Houthi have clown prince Mohammad bin Salman by the balls and can squeeze those at will.

The drones and missiles the Houthi use are copies of Iranian designs assembled in Yemen with the help of Hizbullah experts from Lebanon.

The Houthis attacked the Shaybah oilfield and refinery complex which produces more than 1 million barrels of oil per day. This is a direct attack on the Saudis’ ability to function as a somewhat sustainable economic and political power.

Bernard may be overstating the significance of this attack in the short-run as it is very possible that there will not be any suing for peace next week or anything. But the threat is real and if it is as indefensible as he suggests then it will be only a matter of time before the operation in Yemen comes to a close.

More importantly this incident plays back into what myself and others have said since the June 20th incident with the U.S. drone. If President Trump is going to pursue war with Iran and continue to pressure their exports to zero then Iran will have no choice but to asymmetrically attack assets across the region and destabilize not only the oil markets but the political futures of major allies of the U.S. in the region.  ...

U.S.Military put out press release that first drone attack came from the northeast direction. Not from south from Yemen.

Not Houthis in Yemen.  

Is this one Staged also? 

Probably.

Saudis are out of option. 

Iraq not cutting. Just hit recent high over 4 mm bbls.  Want to go to 6 mm bbls over next 2 years. 

Kuwait just signed contract with Schlumberger to increase production by additional 2 mm bbls. 

Nigeria started new well recently for addition 200K bbls. China now pursuing JVs with Nigeria.

They have figured it out.  Oil does nobody any good stranded in the ground.

Pump and dump while the prices are good.  

$58 Brent is better than $48 Brent.  Do the math.

Saudis can fool US Investment Banks and oil/gas analyst .  . .  .  but producers understand there are only maybe 8 good years (relatively speaking) left in the industry.

A real production/export cut (as opposed to present con job) would be a blow to the weak shale companies and afford OPEC a 6 to 9 reprieve with higher prices.  They will be going out of business anyway in next year. Does not solve the real problem. 

Supply growing . . . . Demand slowing. 

Edited August 19, 2019 by SKEP

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

What would happen if Saudi decides that enough is enough and makes an all out effort to eradicate the Houthis in Yemen?

Is this not a possible scenario?

[wrs + 893]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

What would happen if Saudi decides that enough is enough and makes an all out effort to eradicate the Houthis in Yemen?

Is this not a possible scenario?

What have they been doing since 2015?  

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

31 minutes ago, wrs said:

What have they been doing since 2015?  

Limited engagement with their UAE allies. To date they have not mobilized their entire military against the Houthis.

If they get annoyed at actions on THEIR soil, the game will change.

[butasha + 123]

With a 930 mile range how long will it be before some group decides to attack some sporting event or other large gathering here in the US? 

San Francisco, L A, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, etc. are all easily within this range. They won’t even have to cross the Mexican border to launch one of those.

Question is. Will such an event hurt the sensitive feelings of the Democratic Socialist party? Would we as a nation actually respond as a nation or just whimper and wine some more?

[wrs + 893]

59 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Limited engagement with their UAE allies. To date they have not mobilized their entire military against the Houthis.

If they get annoyed at actions on THEIR soil, the game will change.

Uh, I am not sure you have been following this then because for the last four years KSA has been attempting to eradicate the Houthi and have failed miserably.  The Houthi have been able to strike at KSA without any Houthi soldiers crossing into KSA territory.  I would say that more military power isn't going to help KSA.  They have bombed all sorts of civilian targets in an attempt to kill the Houthi and yet the Houthi just keep striking at KSA targets well inside the KSA borders.  If you ask me, the Houthi are winning by surviving and striking back.  

[Jakridge + 122]

1 hour ago, butasha said:

With a 930 mile range how long will it be before some group decides to attack some sporting event or other large gathering here in the US? 

San Francisco, L A, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, etc. are all easily within this range. They won’t even have to cross the Mexican border to launch one of those.

Question is. Will such an event hurt the sensitive feelings of the Democratic Socialist party? Would we as a nation actually respond as a nation or just whimper and wine some more?

Man, you read my mind and beat me to it.  Well done!

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, butasha said:

With a 930 mile range how long will it be before some group decides to attack some sporting event or other large gathering here in the US? 

San Francisco, L A, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, etc. are all easily within this range. They won’t even have to cross the Mexican border to launch one of those.

Question is. Will such an event hurt the sensitive feelings of the Democratic Socialist party? Would we as a nation actually respond as a nation or just whimper and wine some more?

How will they get the drones here? And the warheads? Suicide bombing is easier but then there's that pesky security at the entrances. Soft targets aren't sporting events but at the exits after the event, such as happened at the Ariana Grande concert

[BigJets + 87]

All good news for American oil.  

[SKEP + 229]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Limited engagement with their UAE allies. To date they have not mobilized their entire military against the Houthis.

If they get annoyed at actions on THEIR soil, the game will change.

First, their partner, UAE , has just left the partnership with Saudis against Houthis. They are actually moving closer to China and Iran.

UAE is doing well and would not want to see drones blowing up around their international tourist lying on their beeches. 

Qatar is building $Billion stadiums for 2022 World Cup.

HALF OF MIDEAST LIVING IN THE 21st CENTURY .  .  . THE OTHER HALF LIVING IN THE 7th CENTURY.

Yemen is a proxy war against Iran. Iran will not let it happen. In today's world Iran could take out KSA in a week, if USA not involved. 

Saudis are going thru $Billions of valuable reserves fighting in Yemen.

U.S. support of Saudis in Yemen being reconsidered.  Congress wants to cut off sales of military weapons to Saudis because of large numbers of civilians killed by Saudi bombing.

 Why dont all parties just stop the conflicts and get down to business.  I realize the Sunni v. Shiite hatred has been around for centuries . . . but come on , this is the 21st century.

Someone needs to teach them what it's like living in peace. They might like it.

Edited August 19, 2019 by SKEP

[specinho + 470]

7 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The drones and missiles the Houthi use are copies of Iranian designs assembled in Yemen with the help of Hizbullah experts from Lebanon.

More importantly this incident plays back into what myself and others have said since the June 20th incident with the U.S. drone. If President Trump is going to pursue war with Iran and continue to pressure their exports to zero then Iran will have no choice but to asymmetrically attack assets across the region and destabilize not only the oil markets but the political futures of major allies of the U.S. in the region.  ...

 

7 hours ago, SKEP said:

U.S.Military put out press release that first drone attack came from the northeast direction. Not from south from Yemen.

Not Houthis in Yemen.  

Is this one Staged also? 

Probably.

 

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

What would happen if Saudi decides that enough is enough and makes an all out effort to eradicate the Houthis in Yemen?

Is this not a possible scenario?

Dear Commies.................. Yemen is sandwiched between the fight of Iran and Saudi et. al?? 

This design........... is fantastic ........... it has inaccessible balconies............

Like wars....... we are building extensions like these - useless and mind boggling..............

If we can be like old schoolers.......... For example.......... if I want the oil field........ if I can buy the field out  and own it............... will i solve the problem of ownership and save the consequential fights??..... If I can not buy and own it......... can I contract it at low price as long as i want?? If I can not do both......... can i make sure it finishes its reserve fast and furious.......?? 

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 8/19/2019 at 12:07 PM, SKEP said:

First, their partner, UAE , has just left the partnership with Saudis against Houthis.

Dig around. KSA proxies were actually fighting UAE proxies last week in a bad, bad turn for KSA ambitions. Iran is a huge trading partner for UAE. A Houthie doesn't bow to a Iranian mullah now, and never has. They have aligned with the Rashids to run Sauds out of the nadj in the 19th century.

MBS is in a big hole and the only thing he knows to do is keep digging. Perhaps he was been played by MBZ, who he thought was a mentor. That was a theory I heard three years ago, and darn if it isn't playing out to the script.

[GregK 0]

If this is what it takes to stop the Saudi war--with US support--on Yemen, then I say, good job Houthi's!  Enough destruction has already been wrought in Yemen, including thousands of civilian deaths from bombing and starvation.  If the US/Saudi war on Yemen doesn't stop now, the whole region will likely go up in flames.  Let's hope calm, sensible heads prevail in DC.  Time to stop the madness and bring the troops home.

Edited September 14, 2019 by GregK