.

[SKEP + 229]

.

 

Edited September 3, 2019 by SKEP

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

SKEP, you have some fairly unique views.

Carry on.

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

UAE produces about 4 mm bbls/day of oil.  They invested wisely. Oil is under 10% of their Economy.  

The rest of the Mideast countries have wasted all this time and money fighting wars , chopping of dissidents heads and buying extravagant items for a few leaders.

They squandered a great opportunity.  It's too late to catvh up now.  

It's reported House of Saud has stashed over $100 Billion in foreign banks.  They should be OK. 

Growth of U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Unconventional oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids in the Shale basins will enable U.S. to dominate the industry. 

Next couple of years will be unsettled as most OPEC members push to increase production substantially, South America become oil powerhouse, and U.S shale consolidates and grows along with Gulf of Mexico production.

U.S needs more export terminals that handle VLCC Tankers. 

Offshore terminals 2 years away ONLY IF FERC expedites application approval. Carlyle Group Corpus Christi  Harbor Island terminal committed to Oct 2020 even though they have not received approval to dredge to accommodate VLCC Tankers.  Probably get approval .  Nobody more "connected" than Carlyle Group.

Magellan likely to join Carlyle on Harbor Island. So could see 2 VLCC terminals sooner than offshore terminals

Big transition year in 2020.  Look out for 2021 !

Producers are now cognizant of "Stranded Assets" .  It will play into ALL industry Investment decisions.

SKEP you seem to be forgetting that USA only supplies a 1/10 (average) of world oil.

Your insights lightly touch on other regions such as Brasil again a powerhouse based on what?

KSA let them do their thing and don’t worry about lopping off heads it is not a variable for predicting the fall of world oil.

Currently looking for a graph on how head severing affects the oil price.

Your now appearing to be what is considered a naive American with a Pro America Agenda at the detriment of the rest of the world, using this rhetoric it may be the end of US oil in less than 5 years, forget 8-10 US Shale is stepping time while the ROTW get back to business.

 

Edited August 19, 2019 by James Regan

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/19/2019 at 7:14 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

.

Edited September 3, 2019 by SKEP

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

19 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Tom,

Thanks . . . I think.

Is that a complement or a comment ?

LOL

Both, I guess.  I tend to appreciate unconventional views, because it tends to make me stop and think.  So .... continue on as you were doing.

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/19/2019 at 8:34 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

.

Edited September 3, 2019 by SKEP

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, SKEP said:

I appreciate an "Independent Thinker".  Not many left anymore.

Independent thinking is what gave us the flat earth people.  Very unconventional, also very wrong.

[James + 30]

It can be near suicidal to think the oil market as a whole is “changed permanently” because of some backwashed deeply indebted, greedy, and short sighted industry we call the US shale industry. All this industry has done is add a little bit more supply to market than before, all the while driving the price of oil down, shelving major projects, and these drillers drilling themselves further into debt, all for some stupid energy independence? This is common sense and anybody who can’t see this and still believes in the shale miracle needs a serious revision of how they see the oil market. It’s becoming quite evident that US shales best days are over with, and if not it’s getting pretty damn close. If financial constraints don’t work then geological constraints (which isn’t talked about often) will keep shale production subdued like it should. And when the next true oil bull market comes (and yes it’s coming you can’t stop it), every shale producer who torched their core acreage will wish they had it back. It’s time to step off of the shale hysteria bandwagon and come to reality 

Edited August 20, 2019 by James

[SKEP + 229]

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Independent thinking is what gave us earth people.  Very conventional,

Edited August 19, 2019 by SKEP

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

31 minutes ago, SKEP said:

What are you talking about ? 

Independent thinkers are the ones that didn't believe the conventional flat earth theory.

Just the opposite. 

The conventional round earth theory.

I'm talking about modern flat earthers.

Edited August 19, 2019 by Enthalpic

[SKEP + 229]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

The earth is round.

 

Edited August 19, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, James said:

It can be near suicidal to think the oil market as a whole is “changed permanently” because of some backwashed deeply indebted, greedy, and short sighted industry we call the US shale industry. All this industry has done is add a little bit more supply to market than before, all the while driving the price of oil down, shelving major projects, and these drillers drilling themselves further into debt, all for some stupid energy independence? This is common sense and anybody who can’t see this and still believes in the shale miracle needs a serious revision of how they see the oil market. It’s becoming quite evident that US shales best days are over with, and if not it’s getting pretty damn close. If financial constraints don’t work then geological constraints (which isn’t talked about about) keep shale production subdued like it should. And when the next true oil bull market comes (and yes it’s coming you can’t stop it), every shale producer who torched their core acreage will wish they had it back. It’s time to step off of the shale hysteria bandwagon and come to reality 

At last someone with a brain cell, Shale denialism is apparently considered the oil field equivalent of climate change denial currently on this forum.

Persons who actually work in this industry are seeing the return to conventional and more revealing the high risk high return of UDW, just the fact the Deepwater units are going back to work will tell you all you need to know, the IOC know the Shale industry has peaked and will deteriorate expediently.

Shale was the USAs trump card which Trump played too quickly, the US Regional oil was considered as part of the US strategical oil reserves, this was always common knowledge while we were drilling US wells around the globe.

This forums needs more experienced commentaries from industry professionals not Googling Oilpros.

Great commentary @James good to see you on this forum.

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

5 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Great commentary @James good to see you on this forum.

And here I thought James was your sock puppet

[James Regan + 1,776]

4 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

And here I thought James was your sock puppet

Doppelgänger maybe, but what’s in a name.....

Ironic as the honarable SKEP has spat the dummy out of the pram.

Edited August 19, 2019 by James Regan

[James Regan + 1,776]

Enough Said....

U.S. oil exports surged to record levels earlier this year as more oil flows to the Gulf Coast, but the recent narrowing of WTI to Brent could slow shipments, unless and until the discount widens again.

WTI has often traded at a discount to Brent in recent years, owing to surging shale production and a limited ability to move product. As exports increased, it acted as a pressure relief valve, moving more oil out of the U.S. and pushing the two benchmarks together.

More recently, the startup of the Cactus II pipeline, which will ramp up to a capacity of 670,000 bpd, has connected more Permian oil to the Gulf Coast. In the third quarter, a total of three pipelines are expected to commence operations, including Cactus II. In addition, the 900,000-bpd Gray Oak pipeline is expected to come online in the fourth quarter. The industry is at risk of overbuilding, as the sudden onset of multiple new pipelines adds more midstream capacity than is justified by the increase in Permian production.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

17 hours ago, James Regan said:

SKEP you seem to be forgetting that USA only supplies a 1/10 (average) of world oil.

Your insights lightly touch on other regions such as Brasil again a powerhouse based on what?

KSA let them do their thing and don’t worry about lopping off heads it is not a variable for predicting the fall of world oil.

Currently looking for a graph on how head severing affects the oil price.

Your now appearing to be what is considered a naive American with a Pro America Agenda at the detriment of the rest of the world, using this rhetoric it may be the end of US oil in less than 5 years, forget 8-10 US Shale is stepping time while the ROTW get back to business.

 

The exports are not the point. Supplying our own market is the issue. We can also switch to natural gas at any time if our own oil runs out. We can convert any percentage of our present fleet (my choice) or we can make gasoline out of natural gas. 

Brazil will be a powerhouse, but that is decades away. All of South America will advance economically. 

How is an American Agenda bad for the rest of the world? We are the last hope of stopping totalitarian socialism and globalism from ruling over the earth. Is that your preference? America itself is in danger of falling into the socialist nightmare. 

[Boat + 1,324]

18 hours ago, SKEP said:

UAE produces about 4 mm bbls/day of oil.  They invested wisely when Brent was $90 to $120. UAE Oil Business is now under 10% of their Economy.  

Oil industry will not go away. It's just that demand will plateau then drop, supply is increasing therefore prices will fall and margins will tighten.

The base cost will not be OPEC $2 to $10, it will not be the Majors Permian break even around $20, it probably will be the new offshore  cost sub $30 bbl.

The rest of the Mideast countries have wasted all this time and money fighting wars , funding terrorism,  attacking Israel, suppressing dissidents, funding 911 and buying extravagant items for a few "royals".

They squandered a great opportunity.  Is it too late to catch up now ? I think so.

I can't see prices going back above $80 for a sustained period without major conflict is Mideast, which is s possibility.

It's reported House of Saud has stashed over $100 Billion in foreign banks.  They should be OK. 

Growth of U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Unconventional Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids in the Shale basins will enable U.S. to dominate the industry for next decade. By then electrification, electric vehicles and renewables while lessen demand.

Next couple of years will be unsettled as most OPEC members push to increase production substantially, South America becomes Oil Powerhouse, and U.S Shale consolidates and grows along with U.S. Gulf of Mexico production

Export Terminals 

U.S needs more crude export terminals that can handle VLCC Tankers. 

Offshore VLCC  terminals 2 years away ONLY IF FERC expedites application approval, if not then 3 years. Carlyle Group Corpus Christi  Harbor Island terminal committed to Oct 2020 even though they have not yet received approval for dredging to accommodate VLCC Tankers.  Probably get approval .  Nobody more "connected" than Carlyle Group. It's nickname used to be the "Ex Presidents Club". Saudis gave them money to invest but had to withdraw after 911.

Magellan Midstream likely to join Carlyle on Harbor Island. U.S. could see 2 VLCC terminals sooner than Offshore VLCC Terminals

Big transition year in 2020.  Look out for 2021 !

Stranded Assets

Producers are now cognizant of "Stranded Assets" . It's now something they are thinking about. It will play into ALL industry Investment decisions. For example Exxon was ready to sign $53 Billion deal with Iraq.  They now want to renegotiate before signing (1)  ñ their payback in the upfront years (2) with ability to opt out of some out year commitments given certain developments.  

OPEC Members increasing production

Even OPEC Members signing contracts  to add millions in daily production in coming years Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria, Angola, Iran (w/China), Venezuela (w/China), Guyana, Bahrain.

Kuwait the most recent. Last week signed contract with Schlumberger to increase production by 2 mm bbls/day. So much for additional OPEC cuts.

Then NON-OPEC SUPPLY : U.S., Norway, Brazil.

OPEC members recently signed over $46 Billion in contracts.  For . . . MORE PRODUCTION.

In a world where an extra million bbls if supply over demand reeks havoc with oil prices . . . What happens when it's 2 , 3 , or 5 mm/day surplus supply. 

A respected oil analyst said last week that OPEC needs to take minimum of 1 mm bbls/day additional oil off the market.  

That's with Trump sanctions already taking 2.5 mm bbls off the market presently. Supposedly, U.S. talking to Venezuela about transition of power.

VLCC terminals will become some of those stranded assets if a Dem ever wins the whitehouse. Like a no flare law for instance.

Let’s look at the new nat gas export infrastructure projects and projections. If the scale becomes big enough our now cheap nat gas would become equal to the world market. In that scenario renewables would become an unstoppable force and eventually replace the now nat gas advantage.

Possible headwinds for the FF industry in a variety of ways. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The exports are not the point. Supplying our own market is the issue. We can also switch to natural gas at any time if our own oil runs out. We can convert any percentage of our present fleet (my choice) or we can make gasoline out of natural gas. 

Brazil will be a powerhouse, but that is decades away. All of South America will advance economically. 

How is an American Agenda bad for the rest of the world? We are the last hope of stopping totalitarian socialism and globalism from ruling over the earth. Is that your preference? America itself is in danger of falling into the socialist nightmare. 

My comment regarding the American Agenda is not directed at what is happening with China, Iran etc, my comment was based on the US current regional oil plays, the shale oil revolution is having a detrimental affect on the world oil market and how healthy is it really https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/7/19/schlumberger-sees-shale-output-boom-slowing-on-budget-cuts which is causing knock on affects that are complicating the main agenda (Trumps campaign against China).

KSA now supplying China with Oil https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/saudi-arabia-dramatically-changing-its-oil-exports-to-china-and-the-us.html.

If the enemy is China keep piling sanctions on them, but what we are seeing is flip flopping from POTUS https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/8/19/oil-climbs-as-huawei-sanctions-delay-offers-sign-of-trade-war-truce constant tweets and tariff reductions or deadline extended, this is diminishing Trumps credibility, which is driving other "friends" to assist China.

If the USA is a "net producer" why continue to disrupt the world oil market with foreign action? Use all your shale oil internally and stop strangling other countries- But its not the simple is it?

Hey I'm a believer in what Trump is doing with China, but using a risky and uncertain tool such as US shale as leverage for future prosperity is naive and carries risk, at some point the band aid will fall off.

Brasil I don't think will be a powerhouse any time soon as the country is being run by the senate (Central government) who are basically communist, we have a right wing president who can't get the support, the end game will be that Bolsonaro will have to call in the military if he wants to make good on his campaign mandate.

Your comments regarding LNG are well received and we should be using LNG and not flaring off as the margins are not as attractive as the gooey stuff, Brasil uses vast amounts of LNG and has stringent laws against flaring off.

Edited August 20, 2019 by James Regan

[SKEP + 229]

22 hours ago, James Regan said:

More recently, the startup of the Cactus II pipeline, which will ramp up to a capacity of 670,000 bpd, has connected more Permian oil to the Gulf Coast. In the third quarter, a total of three pipelines are expected to commence operations, including Cactus II. In addition, the 900,000-bpd Gray Oak pipeline is expected to come online in the fourth quarter. The industry is at risk of overbuilding, as the sudden onset of multiple new pipelines adds more midstream capacity than is justified by the increase in Permian production.

That's the nature of Midstream

Not enough

Too much

The new Permian pipes will be at full capacity by the end of next year. 

Thee have already approved an additional 1 mm bbls/day Permian  pipeline to Corpus Christi and another Permian to Houston (Wink to Webster) pipeline.  It's a shame, according to you, none of this 5 mm plus bbls/day pipeline will ever get used for crude export. 

You should be more concerned about your buddies in KSA with STRANDED ASSETS 

We don't even know if the House of Saud will be around in 2021.

Edited August 20, 2019 by SKEP

[SKEP + 229]

15 hours ago, James Regan said:

My comment regarding the American Agenda is not directed at what is happening with China, Iran etc, my comment was based on the US current regional oil plays, the shale oil revolution is having a detrimental affect on the world oil market and how healthy is it really https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/7/19/schlumberger-sees-shale-output-boom-slowing-on-budget-cuts which is causing knock on affects that are complicating the main agenda (Trumps campaign against China).

KSA now supplying China with Oil https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/saudi-arabia-dramatically-changing-its-oil-exports-to-china-and-the-us.html.

If the enemy is China keep piling sanctions on them, but what we are seeing is flip flopping from POTUS https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/8/19/oil-climbs-as-huawei-sanctions-delay-offers-sign-of-trade-war-truce constant tweets and tariff reductions or deadline extended, this is diminishing Trumps credibility, which is driving other "friends" to assist China.

If the USA is a "net producer" why continue to disrupt the world oil market with foreign action? Use all your shale oil internally and stop strangling other countries- But its not the simple is it?

Hey I'm a believer in what Trump is doing with China, but using a risky and uncertain tool such as US shale as leverage for future prosperity is naive and carries risk, at some point the band aid will fall off.

Brasil I don't think will be a powerhouse any time soon as the country is being run by the senate (Central government) who are basically communist, we have a right wing president who can't get the support, the end game will be that Bolsonaro will have to call in the military if he wants to make good on his campaign mandate.

Your comments regarding LNG are well received and we should be using LNG and not flaring off as the margins are not as attractive as the gooey stuff, Brasil uses vast amounts of LNG and has stringent laws against flaring off.

The USA is not your KSA

U.S. has a Free Market Capitaliistic Economy..  It's doing just fine, thank-you.

U.S. does'nt fix prices.

U.S. doesn't have royal family with kings and queens (except at Disney World)

U.S. doesn't behead citizens.

Don't tell U.S. how to run their economy, the only prosperous economy in the world right now.

Don't tell Trump how to deal with China. It's much more complex than you will ever understand.

Your KSA should focus on there own problems, of which there are many.  

 

 

Edited August 20, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

9 hours ago, SKEP said:

The USA is not your KSA

U.S. has a Free Market Capitaliistic Economy..  It's doing just fine, thank-you.

U.S. does'nt fix prices.

U.S. doesn't have royal family with kings and queens (except at Disney World)

U.S. does behead citizens.

Don't tell U.S. how to run their economy, the only prosperous Economy in the world.

Don't tell Trump how to deal with China.

Your KSA should focus on there own problems, of which there are many.

 

 

Well that didn't take long to flush you out.

Good to see you again bro.

Respect.....

Just out of interest have you read the Seven Sisters by Anthony Simpson, very interesting with some points which are worth reflecting on, some irony to be had.

Edited August 20, 2019 by James Regan

[SKEP + 229]

10 hours ago, James Regan said:

At last someone with a brain cell, Shale denialism is apparently considered the oil field equivalent of climate change denial currently on this forum.

Persons who actually work in this industry are seeing the return to conventional and more revealing the high risk high return of UDW, just the fact the Deepwater units are going back to work will tell you all you need to know, the IOC know the Shale industry has peaked and will deteriorate expediently.

Shale was the USAs trump card which Trump played too quickly, the US Regional oil was considered as part of the US strategical oil reserves, this was always common knowledge while we were drilling US wells around the globe.

This forums needs more experienced commentaries from industry professionals not Googling Oilpros.

Great commentary @James good to see you on this forum.

 

STRANDED ASSETS

Everything is coming back 

Pump.and Dump while the getting is good.

8 to 10 good years left in the oil business. If thst. $58 bbl today is lot better than $48 a year from now.

 

Edited August 20, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

17 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Pump.and Dump while the getting is good.

SKEP- Don't you think that's being a bit shortsighted? And then what?

We are not in the business of Flipping Industries, is that an admittance that the Shale play is just a mom and pop start up and will be flipped, maybe for a company who will use the dry reservoirs in the shale play as storage, to inject crude oil that the USA will soon be importing from OPEC or to store LNG?

 

Edited August 20, 2019 by James Regan

[SKEP + 229]

4 hours ago, Boat said:

VLCC terminals will become some of those stranded assets if a Dem ever wins the whitehouse. Like a no flare law for instance.

Let’s look at the new nat gas export infrastructure projects and projections. If the scale becomes big enough our now cheap nat gas would become equal to the world market. In that scenario renewables would become an unstoppable force and eventually replace the now nat gas advantage.

Possible headwinds for the FF industry in a variety of ways. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 hours ago, SKEP said:

STRANDED ASSETS

Everything is coming back 

Pump.and Dump while the getting is good.

8 to 10 good years left in the oil business. If thst. $58 bbl today is lot better than $48 a year from now.

 

IF oil runs out we will do just fine with natural gas, and oil from natural gas. When oil does run out here, it will be a slow process, not a rapid one IMHO.