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[SKEP + 229]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Edited August 30, 2019 by SKEP

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Oil prices move just fine. Your title should have said, "Only thing that moves oil price UP…"

[SKEP + 229]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Oil prices move just fine. Your title should have said, "Only thing that moves oil price UP…"

I'll correct

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

12 hours ago, SKEP said:

Last week Khalid al-Fahlih said current oil prices unacceptable and OPEC will consider all options. 

  .  .  .  AND THE PRICE OF OIL TRADES UP ON THAT . THINK ABOUT HOW ABSURD THAT IS .

But it is not absurd if oil trades on such comment. 

What are all the OPEC options Khalid Falih can consider.  

Cut more and U.S. takes their markets. Can't start a war as U.S. is not going to fight your wars anymore.  

OPEC can pretend that supply doesn't matter and blame oil price on slow demand from "trade wars".  This doesn't sync to what ARAMCO said last week. ARAMCO said last week that (1) demand was good in all regions. They added that (2) they were able to supply 100% of their clients oil demand.

SO WHERE DOES THE TRUTH "LIE" ?

Khalid Falih comments or a drone can support price when the excess supply is 900K bbls/day.  NOT WHEN SURPLUS BECOMES 2 , 3 OR 5 MILLION BBLS/DAY.

 

This is no more absurd than thinking that pumping millions of barrels of shale oil per day into an already over supplied market will do anything but drive the price down...

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

Maybe someone will write a story on a 7.5m drawdown? Certainly that'll budge the markets hehe, wait...….let's make it 9mb just for good measure. 

Edited August 20, 2019 by Old-Ruffneck

[SKEP + 229]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

This is no more absurd than thinking that pumping millions of barrels of shale oil per day into an already over supplied market will do anything but drive the price down...

Doug ,

You decide who should cut supply and by how much.  Go to OPEC countries and let us know if they are all complying.

While you're at it set up a universal price structure to determine fair price for oil with no consideration of supply and demand.

You can be World Energy Czar .

Thanks in advance for saving the oil industry.

SKEP

Edited August 20, 2019 by SKEP

[Boat + 1,324]

I got a solution for overproduction. Put a 30% tariff on any Canadian tar sand production above what the US needs for consumption. That would help US producers and knock a big chunk out of the trade imbalance with Canada. 

Canada exports around 3.4 mbpd to the US. US consumption uses around 1 mbpd. If the Canadians were serious about their oil they would build their own infrastructure. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

12 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

This is no more absurd than thinking that pumping millions of barrels of shale oil per day into an already over supplied market will do anything but drive the price down...

So?? Play the market to your advantage. If prices are shrinking, buy buy buy, because sooner it will go back up. Not later. I'd say 38$ a barrel is a good price. Consumers will really enjoy it. Lot of Middle Eastern countries b/e 6$ so US Shale's the one gonna get screwed.  Then price will rise and some who are smarter than me will get some good wealth. To predict the Market (flooding) is easy to overshoot demand, just as easy to undershoot supply. It's not like ya can twist a valve here and cycle the pumps there and get it accurate. Very hard to determine month to month what supply/demand structure is going to be. So many factors involved in the demand side. Who'd of thought just several months back, demand drop world-wide by several mbd ? I guess we can always blame Trump hehehe

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

5 minutes ago, Boat said:

I got a solution for overproduction. Put a 30% tariff on any Canadian tar sand production above what the US needs for consumption. That would help US producers and knock a big chunk out of the trade imbalance with Canada. 

Canada exports around 3.4 mbpd to the US. US consumption uses around 1 mbpd. If the Canadians were serious about their oil they would build their own infrastructure. 

Silly Canadians don't want to pollute their own lands, let USA do it !!!!

[SKEP + 229]

11 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Silly Canadians don't want to pollute their own lands, let USA do it !!!!

Canadian refineries are not equipped to handle oil sands dilbit. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

1 minute ago, SKEP said:

Canadian refineries are not equipped to handle oil sands dilbit. 

I was being facetious

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

12 hours ago, SKEP said:

Doug ,

You decide who should cut supply and by how much.  Go to OPEC countries and let us know if they are all complying.

While you're at it set up a universal price structure to determine fair price for oil with no consideration of supply and demand.

You can be World Energy Czar .

Thanks in advance for saving the oil industry.

SKEP

You seem to be missing the point while defending the US shale oil industry at every turn.

I simply pointed out that pumping oil into an already over supplied market will tend to drive the price down. Do you agree or disagree with that?

I also pointed out that regardless of whether OPEC is adhering to the terms of their production cuts or not, at least they are willing to discuss cutting production to adjust the price of oil.

The US shale oil industry apparently will not even discuss ANY mechanism to support ANY oil price.

[James Regan + 1,776]

10 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

You seem to be missing the point while defending the US shale oil industry at every turn.

I simply pointed out that pumping oil into an already over supplied market will tend to drive the price down. Do you agree or disagree with that?

I also pointed out that regardless of whether OPEC is adhering to the terms of their production cuts or not, at least they are willing to discuss cutting production to adjust the price of oil.

The US shale oil industry apparently will not even discuss ANY mechanism to support ANY oil price.

Doug your wrong, once the US reversed on oil exports in 2015 it crashed the Drilling Industry due to corrupt bankers and bad fiscal policies from Shale MAP start ups who realized that they had to get as much out of the ground ASAP as they knew what they were doing was flawed and unsustainable, at some point the penny would drop and they would pay the price.

OPEC and in particular the head loppers are willing to discuss or were more willing and I’m sure they will lose patience, once they launch the IPO it will detonate the major IOCs who will suffer, unfortunate but is it not a “free Market” being advocated on this forum?

Once again Shale is not a sustainable healthy business model, it’s a short term flip. Which is currently being hunted down by the Deepwater players who got shafted due to greedy shale companies and the land owners.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I really do not think that the US shale oil players realize, or even care, the damage they have caused to the global oil industry.

This is not only to operators, but to third party services, drilling contractors, suppliers, OFTG companies, consultants, etc....

In the oilfield, 'what goes around, comes around'. 

[Boat + 1,324]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I really do not think that the US shale oil players realize, or even care, the damage they have caused to the global oil industry.

This is not only to operators, but to third party services, drilling contractors, suppliers, OFTG companies, consultants, etc....

In the oilfield, 'what goes around, comes around'. 

Out of the 100 million barrel per day market you have decided that 5-6 million of LTO has damaged oil markets. Lol The producers of the other 94 mbpd get a free pass? Why not pick on the dirtiest oil.....wait for it......tar sands. Most Canadians outside Alberta don’t even want it. Just a few oil guys and Trump. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 hours ago, Boat said:

Out of the 100 million barrel per day market you have decided that 5-6 million of LTO has damaged oil markets. Lol The producers of the other 94 mbpd get a free pass? Why not pick on the dirtiest oil.....wait for it......tar sands. Most Canadians outside Alberta don’t even want it. Just a few oil guys and Trump. 

There are many players in that 100 million bpd market which you mentioned. I would expect ALL of them to play a part as it is an international market.

At least OPEC and most of the other players meet and discuss the issue, the Shale Oil Gang apparently do not feel that they need to get involved and pump whatever they want....and still have the audacity to bitch and moan about the oil price!

Granted, the other players are NATIONAL oil companies, but everybodies actions affect the rest. The Shale Oil Gang must feel that as, they are a conglomeration of IOC's and privately owned concerns, they do not have a responsibility not only towards realistic stewardship of a national resource, the health and wellbeing of the third party services companies (whose survival depends on the health of the international industry) and the hundreds of thousands of people, domestic and globally, who depend on the health of the industry for their livelihood.

When things finally sort out, which they will, I hope the Shale Oil Gang and the US oil industry understand the phrase 'you reap what you sow'..

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

10 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

There are many players in that 100 million bpd market which you mentioned. I would expect ALL of them to play a part as it is an international market.

That be some good herb ya tokin' there....KSA has never played a set of rules unless it fits their narrative, and get the rest of OPEC to follow suit. HERE in USA we have a free market which for the most part transparent. Keep sticking up for them middle-eastern nations and remember how many US people have died directly and indirectly protecting oil and then of course 9/11. How many were Saudis? 

They choose the life of luxury and support every person in their nation, For 5$ a bbl oil they want 85$. Nope, I have no pity for em and the more we can help other countries develop their resources and glut them into submission, the world be better for it. But then again, I am just an old ruffneck, with no formal education, just field experience and a lot of listening to my elders in said industry.

[Boat + 1,324]

That would be called collusion. Not allowed by law. What you cheer, support and want is not allowed in a free market. Authoritative run countries where companies are told what to do and not left to their own devices to compete for an advantage or fail. Most Americans want little interference or minimal regulation. Sounds like you want government control over oil and a set price. 

[wrs + 893]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I really do not think that the US shale oil players realize, or even care, the damage they have caused to the global oil industry.

This is not only to operators, but to third party services, drilling contractors, suppliers, OFTG companies, consultants, etc....

In the oilfield, 'what goes around, comes around'. 

So it's your position that there are no service companies or drilling contractors or suppliers or anything else making money in the shale patch?  I have to wonder then when a well costs $3.5m to drill and $2-3m to complete, who isn't making any money there?  Seems to me that the people doing the drilling and providing the cement, casings, drilling rigs, sand, pumps, etc, etc, etc would be making money irrespective of the profitability of the operator, assuming they get paid and they do.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

4 minutes ago, Boat said:

That would be called collusion. Not allowed by law. What you cheer, support and want is not allowed in a free market. Authoritative run countries where companies are told what to do and not left to their own devices to compete for an advantage or fail. Most Americans want little interference or minimal regulation. Sounds like you want government control over oil and a set price. 

To whom is this addressed

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

23 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

That be some good herb ya tokin' there....KSA has never played a set of rules unless it fits their narrative, and get the rest of OPEC to follow suit. HERE in USA we have a free market which for the most part transparent. Keep sticking up for them middle-eastern nations and remember how many US people have died directly and indirectly protecting oil and then of course 9/11. How many were Saudis? 

They choose the life of luxury and support every person in their nation, For 5$ a bbl oil they want 85$. Nope, I have no pity for em and the more we can help other countries develop their resources and glut them into submission, the world be better for it. But then again, I am just an old ruffneck, with no formal education, just field experience and a lot of listening to my elders in said industry.

Yeah, I'll do this while I'm on my fourth unemployed year after a successful 30 year career....right up until the price of oil plummeted. The rest of the slump can be laid at the feet of an over supplied market. There are literally tens of thousands of guys just like me....just not in the US. As an aside, I am just as American as the Shale Oil Bozos.

I am not sticking up for any Middle Eastern country, so get off of your high horse and pull your horns in. Alot of us would dearly love to go back to work but the greed, arrogance and ignorance of the Shale Oil Gang will not let that happen.

I am educated. Degrees in Petroleum Engineering and Environmental Policy. I have also worked the deck, the drill floor and the derrick BEFORE working as Companyman, Drilling Engineer, Drilling Superintendent and Drilling Manager. You are NOT the only one with field experience.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 minutes ago, Boat said:

That would be called collusion. Not allowed by law. What you cheer, support and want is not allowed in a free market. Authoritative run countries where companies are told what to do and not left to their own devices to compete for an advantage or fail. Most Americans want little interference or minimal regulation. Sounds like you want government control over oil and a set price. 

No, I want people to pull their collective heads out of their collective asses and realize that not only are they about to crater their own industry by driving the price down due to over supply, to the point where they can not even service their debt, but also destroying a once vibrant international industry!

You can scream 'free market' all the way to bankruptcy court for all I care. Perhaps you can explain to the next generation why you sold perhaps the last terrestrial oil in the US at such unreasonable prices.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 minutes ago, wrs said:

So it's your position that there are no service companies or drilling contractors or suppliers or anything else making money in the shale patch?  I have to wonder then when a well costs $3.5m to drill and $2-3m to complete, who isn't making any money there?  Seems to me that the people doing the drilling and providing the cement, casings, drilling rigs, sand, pumps, etc, etc, etc would be making money irrespective of the profitability of the operator, assuming they get paid and they do.

And if you remember a few years back, when the shale oil operators beat the service companies senseless to lower their rates so that the OPERATORS could lower THEIR breakeven costs to stay in business. Oh, you apparently forgot about this.

The service companies were barely keeping their heads above water and laid off thousands globally to be able to keep crews and equipment running in the debt ridden American shale oil patch!

Of course the service companies made some money, but at the rates determined by the greedy, no load operators! The service companies were, and may still be on, life support rates.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

3 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Yeah, I'll do this while I'm on my fourth unemployed year after a successful 30 year career....right up until the price of oil plummeted. The rest of the slump can be laid at the feet of an over supplied market. There are literally tens of thousands of guys just like me....just not in the US. As an aside, I am just as American as the Shale Oil Bozos.

I am not sticking up for any Middle Eastern country, so get off of your high horse and pull your horns in. Alot of us would dearly love to go back to work but the greed, arrogance and ignorance of the Shale Oil Gang will not let that happen.

I am educated. Degrees in Petroleum Engineering and Environmental Policy. I have also worked the deck, the drill floor and the derrick BEFORE working as Companyman, Drilling Engineer, Drilling Superintendent and Drilling Manager. You are NOT the only one with field experience.

 

You speak of the tens of thousands that didn't adapt and are unemployed. I speak of the Many MILLIONS that every time we fill up our vehicle and not get ripped off out-weighs your job loss. I left in 86 because there was zero hiring. I think I didn't make a mistake. My ex-wife just went bankrupt in Odessa. While I feel bad I told her 10 yrs ago put money away. So now losing couple properties and moving in with her Mother in Valentine. 

 

[Boat + 1,324]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

No, I want people to pull their collective heads out of their collective asses and realize that not only are they about to crater their own industry by driving the price down due to over supply, to the point where they can not even service their debt, but also destroying a once vibrant international industry!

You can scream 'free market' all the way to bankruptcy court for all I care. Perhaps you can explain to the next generation why you sold perhaps the last terrestrial oil in the US at such unreasonable prices.

Oil production looks robust and growing. There doesn’t appear to be a problem getting funding for most producers. If someone invests in a losing producer I would say they need better research. If banks or institutions throw good money after bad they deserve to die. Only the strong surviving is just part of capitalism. If the heat is to hot, get out of the kitchen. Maybe turnips is a less volitile commodity.