'No - Deal Brexit' vs 'Operation Fear' Globalist Pushback ... Impact to World Economies and Oil

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 hour ago, Alex Palamas said:

Yes I do my friend.. Plus it is a far nicer place to live even now.. Italy does not have petrol or gas or gold or ore.. Yet, even with their limited capacity and historical inefficiencies, they make nice stuff man which are also expensive and sought after by Russian oligarchs and plutocrats.. 

The reality remains.. A country like russia so blessed has not achieved economically what it could.. Pls also note I am personally a massive fun (and well-read) of russian literature and fine thought.. If u want to understand even modern day russia, I cannot recommend  highly enough to go heavy on the russian classics, not to mention Bakunin one of my big heroes!! If I understand you correctly (I am wildly extrapolating here so pls forgive me), I would immediately recommend "Notes from the Underground" by Dostoyevski..  I am fully aware of what they are capable and I am stating hard cold facts man..

See, I am talking of Italy in terms of technology and industry, not niceness. Russia is far ahead of Italy in technology and industry and yet Italy has higher GDP. This is the point I am trying yo convey. This also implies bloating of currency.

1 hour ago, Alex Palamas said:

Greece received structural funds from the EU.. pls stop the fixation with NATO handing funds.. Instead greece has spent tons of worthless money to NATO (indirectly; via NATO arm-producers) to sustain a large military under the dogma of divide and conquer that greece has been placed against turkey.. Read more carefully what I write if u have time (I understand u might not)..

The EU funds that Greece received were used since the 80s to drastically improve (successfully) the infrastructure and the country achieved solid alignment with other EU countries easily till 2008-2010 when the crisis exploded (because of their unchecked debt and useless politics).. 

Again, greece had enormous opportunities but did not use them exactly right..

I don't see a difference between EU & NATO. Let us not pretend that EU acts independent of its political alliance with USA.

USA and is EU allies gave funds to Greece only to improve its short term infrastructure without improving its industrial base. This meant that the intention behind funding Greece was to keep Greece dependent on USA-EU so as yo keep it on a leash. So, Greece was FORBIDDEN from industrialisation. This is how politics work. Not all of the conditions of the funding is mentioned explicitly in public. Nevertheless, it doesn't mean EU was having generosity and philanthropic intentions in funding Greece.

1 hour ago, Alex Palamas said:

I am answering back with facts, graphs, links and arguments based on the realities of the market and instead u reprimand me for ignoring the potential anti-orthodox conspiracy.. fine, not much I can say.. It is very disheartening.. 

You are giving facts but without giving the motive or driving force that led to these facts. The question is about intentions of the people due to which they are behaving in this way. Just giving data without giving this driving force behind it makes the argument incomplete.

 

1 hour ago, Alex Palamas said:

I will state this again, I agree with you, there are political challenges that greece faces.. I personally always felt an anti-greek sentiment from specific countries.. Turkey is difficult as well.. 

You are also pulling the subject from a biased direction.. Greece has tried to be a very russia-friendly country over the years u can find endless articles (for obvious cultural reasons and orhtodoxy as u point out) but u can clearly see that russia has not done its bit!! They have always played the game that the americans have also played with greece for the geopolitical reasons we all understand

Russia can't help a NATO ally regardless of sentiment. So, one can't blame Russia for it. Russia also has limitations of geography to help Greece.

Just like fever can be due to variety of reasons like - flu, typhoid, TB etc, the financial consequences can be a result of a number of factors. We have to find the right cause to diagnose the problem. Merely stating the symptoms without the driving force/cause is not enough. The driving force behind Greece problem has always been with anti orthodox sentiment of western powers.

PS- If possible, reply in a single message by quoting multiple replies like I did in this post. It will be much more convenient to read for others who are reading this thread as otherwise this thread will run into scores of pages merely by the conversation between you and me!

Edited August 30, 2019 by kshithij Sharma

[Alex Palamas + 52]

2 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

See, I am talking of Italy in terms of technology and industry, not niceness. Russia is far ahead of Italy in technology and industry and yet Italy has higher GDP. This is the point I am trying yo convey. This also implies bloating of currency.

Here u are my friend some specific facts below that might indicate (with or without bias just facts) that as logic dictates (lets quote the Greeks topically) Italy is a far better performer in Innovation and Technology, from every angle my friend.. Not just nicer but more industrious and innovative and makes more stuff as well..

Since we are chatting about the greeks, may we stick to what Aristotle describes beautifully in Metaphysics, the power of logical processing of facts and scientific outputs?? I am not trying to blindly antagonise u just provide some facts to lubricate the chat.. Apologies if I have bungled some numbers, but I am also trying to do some work !!

 

1. Manufacturing contribution to GDP:

Italy = ~70 billion Euros (~17% of GDP)

Russia = ~32 billion Euros (~14% of GDP)

 

2. Innovation performance:

Italy = 0.24

Russia = -0.16

 

3. Global Innovation Index (https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/userfiles/file/reportpdf/gii_2018-report-new.pdf)

Italy (page 271) = rank 31

Russia (page 313) = rank 46

 

4. Knowledge & Technology output (https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/userfiles/file/reportpdf/gii_2018-report-new.pdf)

Italy = rank 24

Russia = rank 47

 

5. Number of scientific publications

Italy = ~880,000

Russia = ~280,000

 

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 hour ago, Alex Palamas said:

1. Manufacturing contribution to GDP:

Italy = ~70 billion Euros (~17% of GDP)

Russia = ~32 billion Euros (~14% of GDP)

What kind of manufacturing is done in Italy?

Manufacturing low to medium technology goods and aesthetic goods are main mmanufactured goods. Important Low end goods are cement, chemicals, food processing, textile, ceramics, leather. Medium level goods are luxury cars and agriculture machinery.

What kind of manufacturing is done in Russia? 

Manufacturing goes from low to high end technology in Russia. Goods of low end are - Textile, jewellery, chemicals, food processing, electrical goods like fans, wiring, cement etc. Medium level goods are - motor vehicles, heavy machinery like cranes & construction equipment, agriculture machines, medical equipments etc. High end technology goods are - defence equipments like radars, missiles, fighter jets, satellites & space equipment, ship building, aircrafts, high end medical equipments, nuclear reactors, semiconductor, communication equipment etc

Now tell me where does Italy stand in front of Russian manufacturing? Italy simply manufactures large amount of simple goods and sells it at high cost by branding it as luxury items. But the real manufacturing technology is with Russia. I don't see how you can even compare Italian low end goods with high end goods of Russia like IL76 planes, S400 or Soyuz!

2 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

Innovation performance:

Italy = 0.24

Russia = -0.16

 

2 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

3. Global Innovation Index (https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/userfiles/file/reportpdf/gii_2018-report-new.pdf)

Italy (page 271) = rank 31

Russia (page 313) = rank 46

Innovation means making new coloured lipstick with glaze and some new fashion designer dresses etc. Innovation is not invention. This is a retarded list which says Singapore, Switzerland, sweden are most innovative countries and China is ranked 27! How is this even logical? The rapid technological progress in China only shows that China is probably the most innovative country in the world and yet we have city states like Luxembourg, Singapore and non manufacturing countries like Switzerland, Denmark, Norway topping China! How does this even make sense? You are simply being pedantic without understanding the underlying realities.

2 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

4. Knowledge & Technology output (https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/userfiles/file/reportpdf/gii_2018-report-new.pdf)

Italy = rank 24

Russia = rank 47

How can Italy have more knowledge than Russia? Russia can make the most advanced aircraft, radars, communication equipment, medical equipments, semiconductor, space based vehicles and yet Italy which makes household items has mire knowledge?

 

2 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

Number of scientific publications

Italy = ~880,000

Russia = ~280,000

Most of these publications are just useless and meaningless. I have been an engineering student and I have seen it myself how worthless kind of publications are done just as thesis. Mostly these thesis are written as some compulsory course for Phd programme or as a compulsory project and hence people just do some random things to pass the course.

As I said, the quality of technology is much higher in Russia due to its advanced technology base. Whatever publications Italy does is limited to lower end technology.

2 hours ago, Alex Palamas said:

Here u are my friend some specific facts below that might indicate (with or without bias just facts) that as logic dictates (lets quote the Greeks topically) Italy is a far better performer in Innovation and Technology, from every angle my friend.. Not just nicer but more industrious and innovative and makes more stuff as well..

Since we are chatting about the greeks, may we stick to what Aristotle describes beautifully in Metaphysics, the power of logical processing of facts and scientific outputs?? I am not trying to blindly antagonise u just provide some facts to lubricate the chat.. Apologies if I have bungled some numbers, but I am also trying to do some work !!

We are discussing not Greece but about how the economy is skewed by bloating of currency (Euro & Dollar). So, Greece is just an example how how hollow the Economy can be despite high GDP figures. Similarly, Italy-Russia comparison is another example of how Euro distortion works.

[Alex Palamas + 52]

1 hour ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Innovation is not invention. This is a retarded list which says Singapore, Switzerland, sweden are most innovative countries and China is ranked 27! How is this even logical?

I cannot even find the words to address this delirious outpouring my friend.. 

You are just made of the stuff that keeps churches/mosques in business, football stadia and TV subscriptions full and tabloid newspapers profitable..  

You are an engineering student well done.. Scripta manent my friend.. You have been basically proving word after word that you are not able to understand basic outputs of knowledge in so many different layers of the discussion, let alone  grasping what is innovation and technology and how is measured.. 

Apologies if I have misunderstood you of course but it is an abuse to use the work logical in your text as this is the only thing u cant do..

I seriously doubt your learning capacity and understanding and to this end I dont think it is reasonable I bother to reply further..

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Alex Palamas + 52]

58 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

We are discussing not Greece......

You are correct, I failed to understand that I was discussing on my own all along.. My fault

Edited August 30, 2019 by Alex Palamas

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

23 hours ago, NickW said:

Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Sure diversify your economy but don't ignore the single biggest source of foreign earnings income until your diversification makes it insignificant. 

Greece has no ability to diversify its economy further and downplay tourism.  Greece is capital-poor.  The capital needed for any large-scale Greek project would have to flow from German banks.  That source is now closed. 

Greek tourism remains a viable income earner.  It has warm beaches, quaint islands, and still has European consumer items such as soft drinks, snacks, and internet connections.  You can go to Greece and have a good time vacation as long as the authorities there maintain a solid police presence and arrest the Albanian pickpockets and thieves. At 20% of the economy, either they maintain the tourist industry of the place folds.  

To understand the concept of tourism collapse, I would invite any reader here to go visit Beirut. If you cannot get a ticket, try Sharm el Sheikh as a substitute.  Same idea. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

Here's British Brexit optimism:

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 hour ago, Alex Palamas said:

I cannot even find the words to address this delirious outpouring my friend.. 

You are just made of the stuff that keeps churches/mosques in business, football stadia and TV subscriptions full and tabloid newspapers profitable..  

You are an engineering student well done.. Scripta manent my friend.. You have been basically proving word after word that you are not able to understand basic outputs of knowledge in so many different layers of the discussion, let alone  grasping what is innovation and technology and how is measured.. 

Apologies if I have misunderstood you of course but it is an abuse to use the work logical in your text as this is the only thing u cant do..

I seriously doubt your learning capacity and understanding and to this end I dont think it is reasonable I bother to reply further..

You simply go aggressive without any facts to substantiate. There is a saying that fanaticism is an indication of self doubt. You are proving that by your overly aggressive attitude.

I understand what is knowledge. Even knowing the number if leaves on the tree next to your office is knowledge. But I am speaking if useful knowledge which gives long term results. And that means development of strategic technology like semiconductor, space technology, communication equipment, defence technology, mobile phone technology like touch screen, aircrafts etc. 

In all of this, China tops the list as its technology base is growing rapidly in the last 20 years. And yet, we are talking of Singapore, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway etc being in top 10 innovative countries! Can you just be a little more factual and give some substation about the technology being developed in these countries because if which they are considered innovative?

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Here's British Brexit optimism:

It is more like a coin on the railway track with approaching train. If the man tries to take the coin, he risks losing his life or limbs. The coin analogous to the economy and the man is analogous to the future of UK. To save the Economy, it isn't worth ruining future.

[DocManfred + 42]

13 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

You were wrong NOT to say it, so I will. Germany won YUUUGE due to the Euro. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2018/01/23/the-german-swindle-built-into-the-euro/#21d1d14d27da

 

The more successfull Euro countries are not responsible for the weaker performance of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Italian manufacturers lost lots of business to China due to lack of innovation, automation and too high labour cost (e.g. early retirement). Nothing to do with the Euro but with a political culture. The lifetime of a government in Italy is ca. 14 months, since WW2. Required political measures have not been undertaken. The legal and the administrative system is a desaster. If you have a legal claim it takes 10 years until a judge will be concerned with it. Italy is close to be a failed state. One can argue that they should not have joined the Euro on this basis. But they had 20 years no to make a change. Hopefully it will come soon.

Spain had a real estate desaster which was completely home made. Governments have taken action very consequently, Spain is on an excellent path again.

Portugal and Greece suffered from very high debt. Nobody forced them to borrow and spend the money. Portugal has changed its policy by own motivation. Deficit is down again, high GDP growth due to good policies.

Greece had similar problems as Italy as far as inefficiency of its administration is concerned. Greece needed some external advisory (e.g. IWF) to get more efficient with the collection of taxes and to reduce excessive social benefits like very high pensions related to the salaries and early retirement schemes which are unaffordable for any country. Greece is over the hill, things are getting better.

By the way, no country was forced  to join the Euro, with the exception of Germany. The Euro was a French idea to better control Germany. Germany had to join it in order to get the French ok for the German reunification. And the French idea was good. It is a big success. The Euro is the second largest currency of the world (share ca 25%) and it provides a high motivation for the Euro countries to adjust their administrative and economic performances to the better. This will make them more successful.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

22 minutes ago, DocManfred said:

The more successfull Euro countries are not responsible for the weaker performance of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Italian manufacturers lost lots of business to China due to lack of innovation, automation and too high labour cost (e.g. early retirement). Nothing to do with the Euro but with a political culture. The lifetime of a government in Italy is ca. 14 months, since WW2. Required political measures have not been undertaken. The legal and the administrative system is a desaster. If you have a legal claim it takes 10 years until a judge will be concerned with it. Italy is close to be a failed state. One can argue that they should not have joined the Euro on this basis. But they had 20 years no to make a change. Hopefully it will come soon.

Spain had a real estate desaster which was completely home made. Governments have taken action very consequently, Spain is on an excellent path again.

Portugal and Greece suffered from very high debt. Nobody forced them to borrow and spend the money. Portugal has changed its policy by own motivation. Deficit is down again, high GDP growth due to good policies.

Greece had similar problems as Italy as far as inefficiency of its administration is concerned. Greece needed some external advisory (e.g. IWF) to get more efficient with the collection of taxes and to reduce excessive social benefits like very high pensions related to the salaries and early retirement schemes which are unaffordable for any country. Greece is over the hill, things are getting better.

By the way, no country was forced  to join the Euro, with the exception of Germany. The Euro was a French idea to better control Germany. Germany had to join it in order to get the French ok for the German reunification. And the French idea was good. It is a big success. The Euro is the second largest currency of the world (share ca 25%) and it provides a high motivation for the Euro countries to adjust their administrative and economic performances to the better. This will make them more successful.

We heard about the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) since day one. There is something in the air when women are topless on the beach and it's beautiful outside where one doesn't really have their mind on the job. Maybe there's a reason ALL northern climate countries are more industrious than their southern brethren? Even in the US, the North had more industry than the South, going back before the Civil War. 

According to the links I shared, France didn't do so well either. But the idea of another currency to take the burden off the dollar is just fine. Economically the Euro was a success, but the bunglecrats just couldn't leave well enough alone and decided to play social engineering instead. We all see how that has gone. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

I agree with Mr. Buckland: it's very, very hard to get fair and accurate news these days. That makes many of us older chaps yearn for simpler times, when we could for example listen to Walter Cronkite: you could take whatever he said to the bank, so to speak. And that may be exactly what happened with the Brexit vote: the only majority of the population that voted solidly in favor of leaving the European Union was the over-65 population. I rather suspect that they "want to take their country back." Perhaps I'm wrong; maybe it's much more complicated.

As I understand it, the UK form of governing is more or less poised for something like this. With a parliamentary democracy but a constitutional monarchy, can the "people" really speak? If so, did they speak? I'm not being judgmental (by design, at least) but I just looked up the numbers: 16M remain, leave 17M, 13M did not vote, and an astounding 18M are not on any eligible registry. If one is to believe these numbers, there are more voter-ineligible people in the United Kingdom than voted for either pathway forward. 

This is of great interest to me, because I have long thought that the UK was "selling out" their country on the one hand, and letting in just about anyone on the other. I am American, and my people are English, Welsh, Irish. My immigrant ancestors, like so many, came to America to escape onerous taxes and monarchy, be independent, and to join a grand new experiment. We--meaning the Americans--are a nation of immigrants, but we've incorporated each ethnic group into the general society. Painfully, granted, but to be successful in America, you have to pass a little test, become a citizen, and the doing of that usually imbues some sort of patriotic fervor that few are willing to forego. I may be wrong but whenever I visit, say, London, I always get the feeling that there are a great number of people who have not been incorporated, aren't really citizens per se, and are angry and feel disenfranchised. 

Believe it or not, my rambling, think-as-I-go thought process has a natural end: The UK is taking over its country again, led by the old geezers who actually recall what it was like to be "British." The United States will sell them LNG at the best price possible. The US will also do its very best to trade with the UK whenever possible. We will, if necessary, send them perishable food by airlifts that resemble those during the Marshall Plan--some say that there will be a food shortage. We will prop up the British people, economically and spiritually. Why? Because our Founding Fathers came from there. Because lots of Americans gave their lives to save England from certain defeat, pillage, starvation, destruction and worse during two world wars. In short, because the place is in our DNA!

In the final analysis, the United Kingdom joined the EU because of fear, but they're leaving because of history. I doubt it makes all that much difference whether Parliament is shut down by BoJo (ha, that's a good one to whomever coined it), or whether the exit is planned or unplanned. This is a divorce. Most divorces are messy, there's a lot of quarreling, hurt feelings, and money changes hands. But after a while, life goes on, all that acrimony is blunted by time and other woundings, and that's exactly what will happen with this one. 

Oil? That's our focus, right? Well, the North Sea field is petering out. There's not much shale in Great Britain. They'll get oil the same way they got tea: they'll bring it in by ship. And American ships will send their fair share. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/20/2019 at 8:58 AM, DocManfred said:

The EU has never submitted any passport. UK passports were always provided by UK authorities only. Each EU country could and can always decide whether to submit passports with a common EU format or with a national format. UK has changed to the national format recently whilst they are "still" member of the EU.

I am anoyed by the ignorant EU-bashing also in this forum. People blame the EU but they have no understanding what the EU is and how it works. They just repeat some fake information. 

The EU is not an "United States of Europe". It is an alliance of 28 nations (states) which have delegated some soveignty (e.g. for trade) to the administration of the European Union ("Brussels"). The EU is governed by three institutions, the European Parliament (elected by the people in each nation of the EU), the European Commission (elected by the European Parliament) and the European Council (consists of the PMs or Presidents of the European member states and have also been elected in their respective states by the people or their parliaments). 

Any European regulation is made in a democratic process and the national governments, and even the regional governments of any of the 28 nations, had and has the right to influence or refuse proposals made by "Brussels". So it is amazing if people in UK or any other EU member state believe that Brussels made or makes their laws. That is not true. None of these laws would have become reality if the government and the parliament of these states would have complained or vetoed.

It is just blaming the EU for unpopular decissions or results which are the outcome of own political faults (e.g. missing industrial and structural policies in order to compensate the impacts of globalisation in the rust belts).

Yet Merkel in Germany and Macron in France use a heavy hand in trying to force their own and other nations to accept large numbers of immigrants who are invading Europe. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-elections-idUSKCN1VL0SX Merkel losing more support today!

Edited September 1, 2019 by ronwagn

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 8/20/2019 at 7:45 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

As the impending "No - Deal Brexit" scares the piss out of EU Globalist unaccountable and unelected officials in Brussels, and Multinational companies and certain Western politicians that want to see China succeed and Western Democracies fail plot and scheme to create uncertainty and chaos, "Operation Fear" steps to the forefront.

I believe the "Operation Fear" scaremongering will get heavily promoted in all major Western Media, and will severely, and negatively, affect global economies - deliberately crashing them, including oil demand and oil prices.

Typical scaremongering from the New York Times:

Will America talk itself into a recession? Trump's advisers are worried

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Typical scaremongering from the New York Times:

Will America talk itself into a recession? Trump's advisers are worried

Never mind the NY Times: the USA is headed for a recession for other reasons.  There is a mis-allocation of capital, quite a bit of which has gone into housing in large cities, resulting in yet another big real estate bubble.  The wringing out of the excess will require the movement of capital from housing and into other assets.  The mechanism for removing that capital is price deflation, the collapsing of the city housing bubble.  That is accomplished by a recession, where growth is negative and earnings shrink.  

The big risk of recession is that it slides into a general price deflation.  Once that gets started it becomes a self-perpetuation, runaway train, and vexing to stop or even control. Economists do not have a good handle on this, and as for politicians - forget it. What do they know. 

A large source of asset allocation into housing comes from foreigners,who see US housing, such as big-city apartments and mansions, as a bullet-proof shield against asset value collapse.  I think they are wrong;  housing assets are just a vulnerable to devaluation as any other asset class, excepting perhaps old GM stock. You see this in dramatically extended version in Canada, specifically in Toronto and Vancouver, with Montreal right on their heels. When the Canadian bubble breaks, it will leave quite a lot of pain.  The smart people in Montreal right now recognize the top of the bubble and are selling their houses, and renting apartments instead.  Then they will buy back a nice house for a 40% or greater drop in price in two years or so.  Nice way to earn $600,000 for doing nothing. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

To illustrate the local workings of asset allocation, my  neighbor just went out and bought himself a sawmill, and set it up in his field across from his house.  He is a schools administrator, well paid of course.  He thus has moved assets from financial assets, very-low-interest instruments, into a hard manufactured asset, wood-cutting machinery.  In doing so he has the ability to generate new income streams through the manufacture of rough logs into lumber. He also moves financial assets into a manufacturing plant that builds machinery, purchases real inputs, and pays wages. What he is doing on the individual level is the asset-reallocation that society will do through a housing asset devaluation. 

He will hold the house and take the depreciation hit, because he needs a place to live, but he will have a platform to provide new income streams against the day he retires.  Smart.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

I must admit that I see through the world through oil-speckled glasses, so all my comments have to be interpreted through that lens.

For 50 years, Senate subcommittees called heads of oil companies to grill them on national TV: "Why are you gouging the American consumer? Why haven't you made America energy-independent?" During that time, Exxon was usually the #1 company on the S&P 500. Oil and gas companies as a whole made up almost 20% of the S&P. As late as 2017 they were almost 12%. Now they're less than 5%. As a country the United States is--at long last--energy-independent, but at a gigantic price to many of the companies that made it so. Talk about misallocation of money! Renewables have been subsidized and all the ink would have us believe that they constitute 90% of the energy source in the world, rather than 10%. If we could suddenly throw a switch and wake up in a Green New World, why then, the world of money would have gotten it right, but that's obviously not the case. In fact, if all those people yammering about banning fracking, shutting down oil and gas, were to get their way and that magically occurred, they'd be starving, freezing and needing a new toothbrush within six months. 

Is there a point to my rant? Yes, it has to do with lost opportunity cost. The hydrocarbon industry has done its part, and yet it has been sadly neglected. At this persistently low price of oil, there are going to be billions of dollars flushed down some black hole somewhere while more billions chase renewable energy schemes that mostly won't materialize. If we don't go nuclear--and we're not--then there simply aren't enough windmills and solar panels to pull it off. If all vehicles go electric, the world would turn into a garbage heap for used-up batteries. Wall Street is treating shale oil as if it's some sort of bridge energy. Right now, it's the only thing standing between us and 1976-like dependence on a two-mile-wide egress through the Strait of Hormuz and another one at Bab el-Mandeb. And as the world turns, it's likely going to take a problem in one of those spots for the country to wake the hell up. 

Through my glasses, over $120 billion in shale oil corporate bonds come due over the next two years. These are junk bonds underwritten on companies not many people have heard about. If shale oil fails, and it could, then Saudi Arabia once again has us by the short hairs. And I don't care how nice we've been to MbS, he's going to pull. What's happening makes no sense. 

[D Coyne + 305]

On 8/21/2019 at 1:13 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

You write unusual English.

Perchance are you Chinese?

My wife is Chinese and her idiosyncratic English is strikingly similar to your odd word usage.

Just sayin.

Tom,

Do you have a point?  Just saying, my wife would not appreciate your racist comment.

[Guest]

Racist?  😂

He's comparing the language to his own wife!  

Some people. Seriously...  just nothing better to do. 

Not everyone cares about your wife's feelings, believe it or not, even if you had a point. 

His 'point' is 'you use similar English to my wife' . Outrageous huh.

Edited September 3, 2019 by Guest

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 9/1/2019 at 9:28 PM, Jan van Eck said:

Never mind the NY Times: the USA is headed for a recession for other reasons.  There is a mis-allocation of capital, quite a bit of which has gone into housing in large cities, resulting in yet another big real estate bubble.  The wringing out of the excess will require the movement of capital from housing and into other assets.  The mechanism for removing that capital is price deflation, the collapsing of the city housing bubble.  That is accomplished by a recession, where growth is negative and earnings shrink.  

The big risk of recession is that it slides into a general price deflation.  Once that gets started it becomes a self-perpetuation, runaway train, and vexing to stop or even control. Economists do not have a good handle on this, and as for politicians - forget it. What do they know. 

A large source of asset allocation into housing comes from foreigners,who see US housing, such as big-city apartments and mansions, as a bullet-proof shield against asset value collapse.  I think they are wrong;  housing assets are just a vulnerable to devaluation as any other asset class, excepting perhaps old GM stock. You see this in dramatically extended version in Canada, specifically in Toronto and Vancouver, with Montreal right on their heels. When the Canadian bubble breaks, it will leave quite a lot of pain.  The smart people in Montreal right now recognize the top of the bubble and are selling their houses, and renting apartments instead.  Then they will buy back a nice house for a 40% or greater drop in price in two years or so.  Nice way to earn $600,000 for doing nothing. 

If they are right. I am wondering about the more expensive parts of California where many homeless are competing for space. Also Chicago, and other cities that are expensive and highly taxed with economies that are in deep debt. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

10 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

If they are right. I am wondering about the more expensive parts of California where many homeless are competing for space. Also Chicago, and other cities that are expensive and highly taxed with economies that are in deep debt. 

Cali is not the only place facing massive future problems with their mountains of debt and a potential collapse when it comes due.  Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey are right behind Cali.  A recent poll was done on Connecticut residents; fully 50% stated they would leave within five years if they could sell the house. 

Now ask yourself: who leaves?  Answer: the well off.  Those are the ones who actually earn enough to pay serious taxes, and they see the writing on the wall.  That legion of poor people will be what is left.  The problem is that those people make no money and pay no taxes, but consume huge masses of social services.  The rich look at that and say, "There goes my kids' inheritances," and they bail. And now what?  How do you propose to pay the bills when there is nobody around with spare cash to go tax?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

An Open Letter to Pearl Clutchers re No-Deal Brexit

...

Here’s a thought experiment for you.

* * *

You are a landlord.

A not very nice landlord.

One day one of your tenants comes to you and says he wants to leave. He asks for his deposit back in full.

You say actually he forfeited his deposit because his dog wrecked the carpets and there’s paint on the kitchen tiles. But you’ll agree to him having a partial refund, provided he lets you keep his furniture.

The tenant says ‘but my furniture is worth more than the deposit, so no thanks.’

You say, ‘well that’s the deal, take it or leave it.’

The tenant says ‘I’ll leave it thanks.’

He leaves it and moves out with his furniture

* * *

Now re-run that scenario, only THIS time a new law means the tenant can’t leave without accepting a deal.

What will you do now? Bear in mind, YOU can refuse the deal, but HE can’t. YOU can offer almost any terms you want. HIS only option is to ask nice for something better. So, will you:

1. Offer him better terms than before because he asks nice?
2. Screw him every frickin which way you can and give him an even worse deal than before – because he literally can’t refuse?

With this in mind, what do you think the media hysteria about No Deal might actually be about?

Do you still believe neoliberal warmonger austerity-fan Hilary Benn was thinking about YOU when he tabled that bill?

I know the Guardian and its shrieking sisters have all been telling you that No Deal Brexit is even worse than just regular Brexit, and that probably it will mean everyone in the country dies (instead of just most of us), the sun boils and the Kraken wakes from the depths to devour all those who still breathe upon our shores.

But you see, Pearl, that’s reductionist garbage.

...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

This EU loss helps bolster Boris in his attempts to extract UK from EU morass.

Excerpt below, long and very detailed explainer in the link:

Massive $7.5 Billion U.S. Award From WTO in Airbus Subsidy Case – Sets Stage for Countervailing Duties Against EU

Jumpin’ ju-ju bones – The Trump administration via U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross won a massive $7.5 billion award as an outcome of the World Trade Organization agreeing with the U.S. against the EU and Airbus subsidies.  The WTO arbitrators decision is final and cannot be appealed.

This win sets the stage for President Trump to deploy $7.5 billion in countervailing duties against products from the EU.  Keep in mind, a final WTO ruling means the EU cannot retaliate against any WTO-authorized countermeasures.  The downstream ramifications are very significant. Think about it: at 25% the U.S. could tariff $30 billion in EU goods.  Man, talk about serendipitous timing… 

 

... What makes this even more excellent is the timing for Brexit.  If Boris Johnson can get out of the EU without strings Trump can use these WTO-authorized tariffs to position a UK trade deal with the U.S. as a trade superhighway.  Incredibly this WTO decision plays right into the hand of President Trump’s global trade realignment.  ...

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I’m a bit confused....

Were the US and the UK the only foreign powers represented in either of the Iraq wars or the war in Afghanistan?

It is handy to label all these conflicts as ‘US led’, but generally that is simply  because NATO and the EU would rather sit on the sidelines and take credit when possible and avoid any blame or backlash always.

The fact is, participation shows intent. Blaming the US and the UK for-the disastrous    immigration policies adopted by the EU is just another example of the EU’s inability to take responsibility for their own actions.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Awesome speech.  1 minute video in the tweet:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/1222565565732204546?s=19

Nigel’s last speech in Parliament: powerful, emotional, inspirational. We raised our flags with great pride. Brexit is finally happening!

 

 

Direct link to video

https://twitter.com/i/status/1222565565732204546