Iran Is Winning Big In The Middle East

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Jan,

If you feel that you are surrounded by monolingual, ignorant Americans who can not read a map, please keep in mind that you are free to leave at anytime.

If I am not mistaken, you made the decision to relocate to America. If this is correct, and you feel that the country is populated by morons, I would like to ask why you choose to live there?

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 8/21/2019 at 3:47 PM, Dr.Masih Rezvani said:

With U.S. sanctions having successfully reduced Iranian oil exports to near-zero, one might think that the Islamic Republic would be on the brink of collapse. The reality, however, is that Iran has managed to build alliances across the Middle East that can be seen as a real coup in its geopolitical struggle against Saudi Arabia and the U.S. 

 

On 8/22/2019 at 2:55 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

I suppose if you consider having their economy in tatters, having their oil exports embargoed, being involved in a proxy war with Saudi Arabia, being considered a pariah in the global community and being destroyed by a backwards thinking theocracy....then I guess you are correct and Iran is 'winning big'.

To Mr. Buckland's point: what good are allies when you're all broke? 

Before oil money, the Middle East was a gaggle of backward tribes fighting amongst themselves.  After oil money, they'll return to their natural state.  Trump has correctly calculated that their political support is no longer worth the cost. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

19 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Meanwhile, I won't be posting, as I have become tired of the negativity.  That mental set is alien to the entrepreneurs in America, who by definition are optimistic and forward-looking.  Be of good cheer. 

If yo do stay away, I for one will miss your pressence.

By and large folks are rarely stupid, but they are ignorant. What's the cliche', real education is about expanding the knowledge of your ignorance.

A few things for optimism. Trump is nothing new. In 1972 the runaway democratic vote winner in the primaries was George Wallace. A bullet ended his run, and oddly enough in his second career he became the NCAAP's best friend.  In the 90s the WSJ was writing about the upcoming "Balkenization of America" yet things can be well.

Americans are by and large, extremely provincial, and easy to see why. Huge country, seemingly able to exist without the rest of the world. We fail to appreciate the fundamental advantage in education and technology WWII provided, coupled with a natural resources. 

USA is still critical in the future, we are the backbone of much of high tech, the Internet and connectivity of practically everything. As long as we are a leader there, we are well positioned.

But most of all, as you put it, we are a country of drive, and a certain optimism. That is perhaps MAGNA's worst sin, it's a negative philosophy with an entitlement to it. We aren't entitled to diddly squat. We must earn our way and we absolutely can, but closing markets will hurt our ability to compete. Yes, absolutely be smarter about China, and we've been fools. We must find a way to pay for governance, and everyone as much as possible gets a fair shake.

[Dr.Masih Rezvani + 27]

Have you noticed that what has happened in these few days is very close to my word ???

[NickW + 2,714]

On 8/23/2019 at 2:05 PM, Dr.Masih Rezvani said:

No, I don't take notes
Since this is a specialized site
I am more interested in hearing from people like you about the type of US-Iran relationship
Because in my opinion the game between Iran and the US now determines the price of oil
Is this a predefined game?
Are friendly to the enemy and behind the scenes
What is the ideology behind these games?
And people's opinion about Iran, and the US, was wrong

The regular threats to annihilate Israel are a significant stumbling block because most westerners realise any actual actual attempt to do so is likely to start a nuclear war. The Israelis have a policy called the Samson doctrine  which means if they are going down they will take all the aggressors with them).  

A position the world could accept would be one where Iran withdraws any violent threats towards Israel. It can still refuse to have diplomatic relations or trade with them and apply visa  restrictions - the world and Israel can live with that. 

As a side note my wife is Iranian and recalls giving blood in the early 2000's for the poor palestinians. Lots of money was collected which they eagerly accepted. They then refused the blood because it had come from 'dirty Shias'. 

 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

6 hours ago, NickW said:

They then refused the blood because it had come from 'dirty Shias'. 

Nick, that is just pathetic. 

Your bride is truly a saint to be so generous.  I am humbled by her grace. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/22/2019 at 3:49 AM, James Regan said:

I think we can expect push back from Iran and rightfully so, if you put your self in their shoes. If they are causing all the mayhem in the Middle East as we are led to believe them there has never been a better reason to go to war with Iran. 

Iran are a bit of an unknown quantity kind of like a very poisonous snake that they haven’t discovered an antivenin for, they know it will bite you but don’t know how to deal with it without bashing its brains out, but they need it to be kept alive.

I feel we are heading for another conflict in the region and that’s sad.

 

The truth is that Iran is a despotic dictatorship with a very large opposition that is fairly helpless. The Iranian people are mainly good people. Some of the best in the Middle East. The same situation exists in Turkey. In the long run, the best thing is to undermine the governments of each of those countries to let the people have a chance. 

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/iran-resistance/

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-08-20/turkish-police-use-water-cannon-batons-on-kurdish-protesters

https://twitter.com/RISEUP4R0JAVA

 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

34 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

The truth is that Iran is a despotic dictatorship with a very large opposition that is fairly helpless. The Iranian people are mainly good people. Some of the best in the Middle East. The same situation exists in Turkey. In the long run, the best thing is to undermine the governments of each of those countries to let the people have a chance. 

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/iran-resistance/

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-08-20/turkish-police-use-water-cannon-batons-on-kurdish-protesters

https://twitter.com/RISEUP4R0JAVA

 

Here is your psychopath mullah doing his finest work:

Just lovely. 

Long past time to push in there and take these pigs and nail them up on crosses with great big spikes, the way the Romans used to do.  Sounds about right to me.

[Larry Lesh + 3]

Iran has unofficially been at war with the US for 40 years.  Congress needs to declare war and give Iran 90 days to negotiate a permanent peace in the Middle East.  If not then the US will begin military operations against them designed to totally eliminate Iran's military capacity.  This will most likely mean a preemptive nuclear strike.  It gives all nations with foreign nationals in Iran or business interests to get out.  Most people won't care and I won't but Iran isn't that stupid.  Faced with real war and utter destruction they will sue for peace.  

[Alfredo + 3]

Los Estados Unidos hoy son un país admirado, su democracia, su nivel de vida, su desarrollo tecnológico son la envidia del mundo. Pero, no deben olvidar que el Imperio Romano y el Imperio Mongol lo fueron también, no puedes ir insultando y amenazando a chinos, rusos, europeos, latinos, turcos y quien se te pare enfrente sin sufrir un día las consecuencias. El pueblo norteamericano tiene 30 millones de drogadictos y 2.2 de personas en prisión, un indicador de que hay problemas internos, ningún país los tiene en esa proporción. Es hora de que le pregunten a su Presidente si eso quiere para esa gran nación. El mundo es paciente, pero al igual que la vida siempre llega la muerte a cobrar tus acciones. El mundo piensa en ganar - ganar no en ganar yo y perder tú.

[GSXRblur + 18]

28 minutes ago, Alfredo said:

Los Estados Unidos hoy son un país admirado, su democracia, su nivel de vida, su desarrollo tecnológico son la envidia del mundo. Pero, no deben olvidar que el Imperio Romano y el Imperio Mongol lo fueron también, no puedes ir insultando y amenazando a chinos, rusos, europeos, latinos, turcos y quien se te pare enfrente sin sufrir un día las consecuencias. El pueblo norteamericano tiene 30 millones de drogadictos y 2.2 de personas en prisión, un indicador de que hay problemas internos, ningún país los tiene en esa proporción. Es hora de que le pregunten a su Presidente si eso quiere para esa gran nación. El mundo es paciente, pero al igual que la vida siempre llega la muerte a cobrar tus acciones. El mundo piensa en ganar - ganar no en ganar yo y perder tú.

Hablemos también de los carteles de la droga que controlan México y gran parte de América del Sur.

[Selva + 252]

Lets keep posts in English so that everyone can join discussion! 

[Otis11 + 551]

 

1 hour ago, Alfredo said:

Los Estados Unidos hoy son un país admirado, su democracia, su nivel de vida, su desarrollo tecnológico son la envidia del mundo. Pero, no deben olvidar que el Imperio Romano y el Imperio Mongol lo fueron también, no puedes ir insultando y amenazando a chinos, rusos, europeos, latinos, turcos y quien se te pare enfrente sin sufrir un día las consecuencias. El pueblo norteamericano tiene 30 millones de drogadictos y 2.2 de personas en prisión, un indicador de que hay problemas internos, ningún país los tiene en esa proporción. Es hora de que le pregunten a su Presidente si eso quiere para esa gran nación. El mundo es paciente, pero al igual que la vida siempre llega la muerte a cobrar tus acciones. El mundo piensa en ganar - ganar no en ganar yo y perder tú.

Translation:

The United States today is an admired country, its democracy, its standard of living, its technological development are the envy of the world. But, you should not forget that the Roman Empire and the Mongol Empire were too, you cannot go insulting and threatening Chinese, Russians, Europeans, Latinos, Turks and whoever stands before you without suffering the consequences one day. The American people have 30 million drug addicts and 2.2 people in prison, an indicator that there are internal problems, no country has them in that proportion. It's time to ask your President if he wants that for that great nation. The world is patient, but just as life always comes death to collect your actions. The world thinks of winning - winning not winning me and losing you. 

1 hour ago, GSXRblur said:

Hablemos también de los carteles de la droga que controlan México y gran parte de América del Sur.

Translation:

Let's also talk about the drug cartels that control Mexico and much of South America.

 

Thank you both for joining the discussion - interesting points made! Google Translate is a great (if imperfect) tool for non-english speakers to contribute.

[BigJets + 87]

4 hours ago, Larry Lesh said:

Iran has unofficially been at war with the US for 40 years.  Congress needs to declare war and give Iran 90 days to negotiate a permanent peace in the Middle East.  If not then the US will begin military operations against them designed to totally eliminate Iran's military capacity.  This will most likely mean a preemptive nuclear strike.  It gives all nations with foreign nationals in Iran or business interests to get out.  Most people won't care and I won't but Iran isn't that stupid.  Faced with real war and utter destruction they will sue for peace.  

Trump is playing Iran expertly.  Just disrupt any and all Iranian water bound trade and Iran dies “naturally”.

blocking Iranian oil trade has been effective choking two (2) USA adversaries in both Iran and China.  They both really start to feel it come Q2-Q3, 2020.  Meanwhile, USA oil game is strong despite Green New Deal crazies.  It’s beautiful, just beautiful.  

America First! 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

12 hours ago, Larry Lesh said:

Iran has unofficially been at war with the US for 40 years.  Congress needs to declare war and give Iran 90 days to negotiate a permanent peace in the Middle East.  If not then the US will begin military operations against them designed to totally eliminate Iran's military capacity.  This will most likely mean a preemptive nuclear strike.  It gives all nations with foreign nationals in Iran or business interests to get out.  Most people won't care and I won't but Iran isn't that stupid.  Faced with real war and utter destruction they will sue for peace.  

The world has said repeatedly that they do not want the US to be the world's policeman. Fair enough, let someone else sort Iran out.

[Boat + 1,323]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

The world has said repeatedly that they do not want the US to be the world's policeman. Fair enough, let someone else sort Iran out.

We need to trim the US military budget about 1/2 trillion per year. Let Japan, India, S Korea and China sort out the Middle East. They are the countries that need the oil.

For all the talking points about wealth distribution, it’s the military driving the debt since Ronald Reagan. At least for the short term the Permian has allowed the US take a break from the Middle East at least as far as oil is concerned.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 hours ago, Boat said:

We need to trim the US military budget about 1/2 trillion per year. Let Japan, India, S Korea and China sort out the Middle East. They are the countries that need the oil.

For all the talking points about wealth distribution, it’s the military driving the debt since Ronald Reagan. At least for the short term the Permian has allowed the US take a break from the Middle East at least as far as oil is concerned.

Where would you trim the defense budget? Keep in mind that the US is still the biggest target out there, no other nation has shown any inclination to get involved in the middle east (or anywhere else for that matter, and that the military creates lnnumerable jobs, not only within the military.

[Boat + 1,323]

A country as powerful and advanced can’t afford to keep the peace in Afghanistan. How would anyone take on a country the size of the US. 

This is the beginning of the hypersonic missile, rail gun, laser/etc era. Tanks, artillery, ground troops in any large size, aircraftcarriers are obsolete jobs programs for out of touch politicians. Not to mention convention weapons will not shield anyone from nukes or climate freeze if even a handful of large cities poof into the trade winds.

Our two greatest military advisory’s China and Russia spend less than 250 billion combined. We have been wasting trillions for decades on a false narrative we need this huge machine that can’t even perform an audit. 

Within just a couple years after Pearl Harbor the  US whipped up the most dangerous fighting force in world history. Our capacity today would make that effort look like child’s play if called upon.

Submarines with enough nukes to kill the world. Ok The most tech advanced air force in world history. Ok tech for the hypersonic missile, rail gun, etc. Ok The rest is mindless waste.

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/24/2019 at 5:11 PM, Jan van Eck said:

You might want to keep in mind that at least 85% of Americans would not be able to point out Iran on a map.  Probably half could not get within a thousand miles of the place.  My guess is that most Americans would be pointing to Turkmenistan or perhaps Mauretania, and that is assuming they don't come up with Paraguay.  The guys that you are running into here represent a very tiny slice of American life, basically statistically insignificant.  So the loud Trumpista stadium roars you are hearing are, as a practical matter, meaningless. 

Please understand that, in America, lots of the people here are pretty much stupid.  It is an unfortunate situation.  I allocate a great deal of the responsibility to the abject failure of the public education system in not teaching other languages besides English.  The result is that Americans have become mono-cultural; nobody reads Faust or even Kafka, and forget about Voltaire or Dostoevsky. It is one big failure. 

I had an Iranian (he was an immigrant) walk into my factory looking for a job.  After talking with him for a while I realized that he was really smart, and really talented.  I hired him on the spot and put him to work in charge of my industrial product design department.  He was great.  Iranians tend to be very smart people and could have a lot to contribute to the planet.  But what has happened is that they have allowed the radical students that sacked the US Embassy and humiliated the Ambassador and the marine guards (who were under strict orders not to shoot at anybody) by taking them prisoner for 444 days.  Now those guys from 1979 are the power elite in Iran today, and keep it running as a prison camp.  Now when you do that, you turn your nation into a pariah.  Nobody wants to have anything to do with you.  

And you allow your total crazies to take over by creating a "religious police."  What Iranians do not grasp is that when you allow the Ayatollahs to go chant "Death to America" and you go burn the USA flag in public  (and do more "Death to America" chants, you are setting yourself up for a world of hurt.  You don't do that, not to anybody, and especially not to Americans, they do not blow that off, they take it very personally.  There are people in America who are quite prepared to shoot you dead for doing that.  So, don't do it, be smart. 

As far as reading and following the Trumpistas on this Forum, that is probably a complete waste of time.  They do not represent America or Americans, who overall are quite kindly and generous people.  Notwithstanding the reputation of gun violence, this is a peaceful country. It is not even in the top 25 of national violence; a lot more pleasant than say Brasil.  The other day we had at least 800 teenagers marching down the road in front of my house, carrying big M-16 military-type rifles, and nobody was in the least concerned.  There was not one phone call to the local police about the armed teenagers.  You can assume that they were on a conditioning march, from the reserve officer unit at the college.  When I see someone walking along the road and carrying a gun, and looks tired, and it is still six miles to town, I think nothing of swinging over and offering the fellow a ride. Hey, he is not going to shoot me and steal my car, that is not going to happen, it never happens.  Put all those ideas out of your mind, this is a friendly, peaceful country. 

You do have these Trumpistas that try to make excuses for Trump.  When Trump walks into some stadium and shouts, "We will build a wall!", all those guys go cheer.  Then when he says, "And Mexico will pay for it!", those Trumpistas go nuts and wildly cheer.  But it is all ridiculous nonsense.  Don't take that seriously; even Trump himself does not take that seriously. Some of those Trumpistas show up here and try to excuse his ridiculous nonsense, like saying he wants to go buy Greenland.  As the prime minister pointed out, that was "absurd." Then Trump and the Trumpistas get bent out of shape because they feel insulted. Never mind that he blows off a State Visit  (which, incidentally, Trump was begging the Queen for through backdoor channels) and belittles the Prime Minister to boot.  Don't make the mistake of taking the Trump crowd seriously.  They are a painful reminder of the interesting psychological phenomenon of  Anomie.  It is unfortunate.  America will survive those guys. When they pop up here on Oilprice and make ridiculous comments or go post those silly meme cartoons, remember that they are acting out.  The country continues.  Meanwhile, I won't be posting, as I have become tired of the negativity.  That mental set is alien to the entrepreneurs in America, who by definition are optimistic and forward-looking.  Be of good cheer. 

Jan 

You are sounding very elitist.

I' m no fan of Trump but I back him 100% on China.  

As for Trump, remember half the country voted for him.  You (and Hillary) shouldn't look down on the "deplorables" they have a right to vote, work and raise a family. 

I remember a post you wrote a while ago where you said Middle East was violent because it was not bread out of them .  Sounds a little you know what . . . (former German leader about 75 or 80 years ago. The one with the mustache)

As far as identifing Iran on a map by someone that works and lives in the Midwest. First it's very condescending of you.  How many Europeans can pick out Indiana on a U.S map ?

Besides as a result of Trumps military build up your Engineering Company has seen a sizable increase contracts, thus profits.  True ?

If I give you a green up arrow or a purple trophy on your post does that mean I'm smart to ? Please ?

I have read Voltaire and Kafka but not Dostoevsky. I'm going to order it today.  

Instead of putting down half the United States population why not go back to cleaning up the algae in Lake Champlain. Much better idea, more productive. Plus it's "POSITIVE" as you entrepreneurs like.

Edited August 28, 2019 by SKEP

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 minutes ago, SKEP said:

You are sounding very elitist.

I should hope so. I am part of the 1%.  Actually, probably of the 1% of the 1%.  Call me an elitist; the shoe fits. 

5 minutes ago, SKEP said:

I' m no fan of Trump but I back him 100% on China.

I concur. 

6 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Remember half the country voted for him.

Not quite.  That is a common enough misconception.  The actual indirect-vote totals were:  

Donald Trump:  62,984,828 -  Hillary Clinton: 65,853,514  - Total:   128,838,342 -  US Population:  323.4 million.  

Thus the percent of the population that votes for president in the USA is only 39.6%

The percent voting for Donald Trump was only  19.4%

CONCLUSION:  Trump won with the votes of less than 20% of the population. It is what it is. 

Incidentally, that result is common enough:  President Kennedy was also a minority of votes winner over Richard Nixon.  That is due to the US "Electoral College" system, where there is no direct election of a president.  Instead, voters elect Delegates to the College, who then vote for the President and vice-president. Not to worry: most Americans do not understand the system, either. 

19 minutes ago, SKEP said:

You (and Hillary) shouldn't look down on the "deplorable" they have a right to vote.  

I don't look down on anybody.  Except criminals and people who abuse the elderly.  I look down on them.  They are the garbage of society.

25 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Besides as a result of Trumps military build up your engineering company has seen increase contracts.  True ?

I do not do military contracting.  I refuse to do so.  That said, as a non-citizen, I would never get a security clearance anyway, so the discussion would be purely academic. They don't buy from me, and I refuse to sell to them.  End of story.

26 minutes ago, SKEP said:

If I give you a green up star or trophy on your post does that mean I'm smart to ?

Of course it does.

27 minutes ago, SKEP said:

I have read Voltaire and Kafka but not Dostoevsky.

That is definitely progress.  Good for you.

27 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Instead of putting down half the United States population why not go back to cleaning the algae from Lake Champlain. Much better idea.

That half of the population has no interest in cleaning up anything. Lack of interest translates into inability to move the project forward.  So that Lake will stay polluted to the end of time  (or, at least, to the end of the dairy industry in Vermont and New York, which is politically underwritten and thus effectively is until the end of time).  I also don't "put down half the United States population" for being mono-lingual and mono-cultural; Americans are perfectly nice people, after all.  I merely make the observation that they are mono-cultural. You can make of that whatever you want. It is what it is.

[Guest]

57 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

If I give you a green up star or trophy on your post does that mean I'm smart to ?

Of course it does.

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

I have read Voltaire and Kafka but not Dostoevsky.

That is definitely progress.  Good for you.

🤣🤣

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 8/26/2019 at 10:31 PM, ronwagn said:

The truth is that Iran is a despotic dictatorship

Here is your lovely Iranian despotic dictatorship, in action:

Now what has to happen is that this Despotic Dictatorship, that would steal the life of a young woman, and leave her to rot in some dungeon, has to be taken outside, placed up against the wall, and shot.  Every single one of these "Mullahs" has to die.  Unfortunately, there is really no other solution, you are not going to rehabilitate people that deranged.  Once they are all dead, then your problems with that dictatorship go away. 

When this gorgeous young woman, in the great moments of the spirit of bloom of life, is snatched away, you can focus on the raw truth that her teeth will all rot out in that Ayatollah Dungeon, she will come out (if she lives through that, which itself is unlikely) quite sterile, her sexual organs raped into oblivion, and with serious bowel problems, a function of that "Revolutionary Guard" crowd's predilection for anal entry.  That is what she is up against.  Who can put a stop to that?  You can - using the ultimate force, the Western military. Time to go in there and shoot every single one of those MFers, up against the Wall for all of them. Then you hang the corpses, nail those corpses up on stakes, let them desiccate, and ultimately toss all of them into a big pit.  Then build a walkway over that pit, so the locals can go eliminate themselves over the corpses until the end of time. 

And now you know why I support Donald Trump. 

[SKEP + 229]

2 hours ago, DayTrader said:

🤣🤣

Half the vote voted for him.

You have to be 18 to vote in U.S.

If you don't do any military work (1) why do you have pictures of Military Jets on your website ? (2) Why do you have a subsidiary in Subic Bay, Phillipines ?

Your New London, CT does not do any work for the military submarine programs ?

Just curious ?

Where is your citizenship , Canada ? 

Edited August 28, 2019 by SKEP

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, SKEP said:

If you don't do any military work (1) why do you have pictures of Military Jets on your website ? (2) Why do you have a subsidiary in Subic Bay, Phillipines ?

Your New London, CT does not do any work for the military submarine programs ?

You've quoted me buddy here, not Jan, just so you know   

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

You've quoted me buddy here, not Jan, just so you know   

Yup, SKEP is all screwed up.  He has got me confused with someone else.  For the readers:  "Jan van Eck" is a common enough Dutch name.  There are at least 156 in the USA alone.  Not quite Dave Smith yet, but getting there.