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Brexit Seems To Be Assured

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God Bless the UK for desiring to be a sovereign nation again!  Savoring those globalist tears as well.

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Fantastic! I think we will soon be seeing a leaner, meaner, more vitalized UK in the near future!

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(edited)

A recession in the UK and the rest of the EU is pretty much assured, too.  The British are going to discover the benefits of free trade... after losing it.  

"You don't know what you got until it's gone."  Or something like that.  

Edited by Zhong Lu
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(edited)

23 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Fantastic! I think we will soon be seeing a leaner, meaner, more vitalized UK in the near future!

Probably not. 

The UK is left without a very large market to sell to, and meanwhile is being stuck with vast numbers of largely unproductive migrants, either refugees or displaced persons from Africa.   Effectively, there are few if any real jobs for those people.  If the Brits seek to avoid having that large group become a permanent criminal underclass, then they will have to be paid to stay home.  That gets expensive fast. 

How you would propose to revitalize the UK with that overhang is not clear.  I don't think it can be done. Meanwhile, it is becoming apparent that the City of London finance center will move to the Continent, so that big engine of capital growth is history.  Hard to see how the Brits can put it together with all these anchors. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
typing error
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8 hours ago, Jakridge said:

God Bless the UK for desiring to be a sovereign nation again!  Savoring those globalist tears as well.

It has always been a sovereign nation.  Your exultation is misplaced.

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Probably not. 

The UK is left without a very large market to sell to, and meanwhile is being stuck with vast numbers of largely unproductive migrants, either refugees or displaced persons from Africa.   Effectively, there are few if any real jobs for those people.  If the Brits seek to avoid having that large group become a permanent criminal underclass, then they will have to be paid to stay home.  That gets expensive fast. 

How you would propose to revitalize the UK with that overhand is not clear.  I don't think it can be done. Meanwhile, it is becoming apparent that the City of London finance center will move to the Continent, so that big engine of capital growth is history.  Hard to see how the Brits can put it together with all these anchors. 

This presumes European products will continue to find a market in the UK while UK products are barred?

I think not.

If Europe were to actually cut off trade then that will be reciprocal and the UK has a very large balance of trade deficit with Europe.

I can easily do without Dutch / Spanish Tomatoes & Cucumbers. French and Italian wine. Danish bacon etc etc etc

We don't have to buy a million plus German cars a year either;)

 

Edited by NickW
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(edited)

''It's a coup! Democracy threatened! Take to the streets!''

The Queen: ''Yeah whatever Boris, go for it, I'm sick of this s**t too.''

 

1 hour ago, NickW said:

I can easily do without Dutch / Spanish Tomatoes & Cucumbers. French and Italian wine. Danish bacon etc etc etc

We don't have to buy a million plus German cars a year either;)

And cheese Nick. Don't forget the cheese. 

 

Queen.jpg

Edited by DayTrader
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1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

''It's a coup! Democracy threatened! Take to the streets!''

The Queen: ''Yeah whatever Boris, go for it, I'm sick of this s**t too.''

 

And cheese Nick. Don't forget the cheese. 

 

Queen.jpg

I think the UK is actually a net exporter of cheese!

We can keep more of our lovely Stilton, Shropshire Blue, Wensleydale etc and the Dutch can keep their rubber (Edam )

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Rubber and wax. Delightful. 

And shove some garlic in soft cheese, you've got Boursin.

Sorted. 

 

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9 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

"You don't know what you got until it's gone."  Or something like that.  

True. Ask the German economy. 

You also don't know future potential unless you crack a few eggs...  :) 

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16 minutes ago, NickW said:

and the Dutch can keep their rubber (Edam )

Edam is made in my hometown and I go to great, huge, lengths to have it specially imported by the full brick or roundhead ("Bol") to me here in the USA.  Last time I was in the Caribbean (Sint Maarten) I brought back a whole suitcase full, 70 lbs worth.  The New York customs people looked at me rather dubiously.  Guess they don't have an appreciation for the really fine Dutch stuff.  Oh, well. 

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3 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

The New York customs people looked at me rather dubiously.

Must have been my charming smile and dashing good looks that kept Customs from cutting the blocks of cheese all open to see what was inside all that cheese!  Ah, ya gotta be Dutch to appreciate the stuff, I guess.  

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3 hours ago, NickW said:

We don't have to buy a million plus German cars a year either;)

Last I heard, that gigantic Austin Morris factory in Coventry got bulldozed, so kinda tough to re-start at this point.  Bentley got sold to the Germans, now they build it with some Volkswagen engine.  But be of good cheer; I will be happy to set up an electric bicycle plant and crank out a million machines a year for the locals.  That way you guys don't even have to pedal!  (I'll toss in a rain shield...)

Hang in there behind the Cliffs of Dover, hey, that even discouraged the Germans!  Rather solid rampart, all things considered.....

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6 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Probably not. 

The UK is left without a very large market to sell to, and meanwhile is being stuck with vast numbers of largely unproductive migrants, either refugees or displaced persons from Africa.   Effectively, there are few if any real jobs for those people.  If the Brits seek to avoid having that large group become a permanent criminal underclass, then they will have to be paid to stay home.  That gets expensive fast. 

How you would propose to revitalize the UK with that overhand is not clear.  I don't think it can be done. Meanwhile, it is becoming apparent that the City of London finance center will move to the Continent, so that big engine of capital growth is history.  Hard to see how the Brits can put it together with all these anchors. 

Jan I have followed many of your comments on various topics and think you're a super smart guy! However these comments I disagree with. I partly own a factory in the UK manufacturing goods predominantly for the energy markets, we struggle to find people in the UK who (a) want to work and (b) have the correct skill set. There are plenty of jobs and well paid jobs for people who want to get on in life and are willing to work their way up to be skilled valuable members of the community. We employ many E.Europeans and have done so for 20 years, many of whom are now key highly skilled members of our management team.

Our main market is Europe (circa 70% exported there) are we worried? yes due to the uncertainty of the last 3 years of pissing around after the vote. However the EU will still be our market I believe as tariffs will be offset by a weakened GBP to export, however for imports these will be far more expensive and hurt our competitors trying to break into the UK market.

Regarding migrants and refugees the UK has taken way more than their fair share over the years compared to our EU cousins (look at the camps in Calais) with no criteria to satisfy for entry (not even that they have to speak English after 10 years). BoJo like him or loathe him will bring in criteria for migrant skills that they have to satisfy going forward or they aint getting in, just like many other Western countries.

Regarding the financial sector you may be right, only time will tell.

I was a remainer but Brexit needs to be done and done quickly if not for the economy then for democracy!

be kind its my first  ever post ☺️

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He is smart, but he likes weird cheese

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4 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

He is smart, but he likes weird cheese

Yeah Jan how can you eat rubber encased in wax?

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What people forget is most of the so-called "EU regulations" are designed for the free flow of goods across borders without tariffs or bureaucratic regulations.  

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3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Last I heard, that gigantic Austin Morris factory in Coventry got bulldozed, so kinda tough to re-start at this point.  Bentley got sold to the Germans, now they build it with some Volkswagen engine.  But be of good cheer; I will be happy to set up an electric bicycle plant and crank out a million machines a year for the locals.  That way you guys don't even have to pedal!  (I'll toss in a rain shield...)

Hang in there behind the Cliffs of Dover, hey, that even discouraged the Germans!  Rather solid rampart, all things considered.....

Toyota, Nissan, Vauxhall, Honda (until 2021), Jaguar Land Rover, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin, BMW - Mini all still manufacture inside the Uk - about 1.4 million cars in total. 

Plus:

Triumph Motorbikes

Vauxhall Vans

A variety of other coach and lorry builders. 

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9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Probably not. 

The UK is left without a very large market to sell to, and meanwhile is being stuck with vast numbers of largely unproductive migrants, either refugees or displaced persons from Africa.   Effectively, there are few if any real jobs for those people.  If the Brits seek to avoid having that large group become a permanent criminal underclass, then they will have to be paid to stay home.  That gets expensive fast. 

How you would propose to revitalize the UK with that overhand is not clear.  I don't think it can be done. Meanwhile, it is becoming apparent that the City of London finance center will move to the Continent, so that big engine of capital growth is history.  Hard to see how the Brits can put it together with all these anchors. 

We are sending many of them back home. 

Bye bye Somali Cloggys😄

No need to translate...

https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/416261304/somalische-brexit-terugkeerders-krijgen-opvang?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=/bzr7zgub3s?amp=1

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2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Yeah Jan how can you eat rubber encased in wax?

Easy.  You slice off the wax!

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(edited)

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

However these comments I disagree with.

Rob, we are in full agreement.  Nothing to disagree on, except that the sinking of the GBP may not be enough to offset EU tariffs "if" the EU tariffs your particular products.  The EU may not.  It is entirely possible that both groups - EU and GB - simply continue to trade and impose no tariffs on each other.  Hey, could happen.  That is currently the case with the vast majority of products flowing across the Border between Canada and the USA, now that NAFTA has been scrapped and the new treaty remains without ratification.  The big exception is lumber, due to a long-standing dispute over "stumpage fees" in Canada, and that dispute has been going on for at least 60 years with no resolution in sight. 

Will the GBP sink?  That is likely.  In your particular case, it flows to your benefit.  Always nice. Cheers.

Edited by Jan van Eck
corrected NATA to NAFTA
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2 hours ago, DayTrader said:

He is smart, but he likes weird cheese

Now that's Funny!  Ha!

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23 minutes ago, NickW said:

That is an interesting phenomenon.  What you tag as "cloggys" indeed have a Dutch passport.  Yet the Ruling is that they may not arrive without first having a housing arrangement.  What the Netherlands government seeks to avoid is large numbers of people coming back to Holland and no place to live, so end up camped out and demanding the govt supply them with a hotel room.  Housing is, and always has been, a critical issue in Holland, with insufficient stock to meet the expanding demand.  (Incidentally that policy would affect me also, as I have no housing there, should I seek "right of return."  Oh, well.)  thanks for sharing. 

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10 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Probably not. 

The UK is left without a very large market to sell to, and meanwhile is being stuck with vast numbers of largely unproductive migrants, either refugees or displaced persons from Africa.   Effectively, there are few if any real jobs for those people.  If the Brits seek to avoid having that large group become a permanent criminal underclass, then they will have to be paid to stay home.  That gets expensive fast. 

How you would propose to revitalize the UK with that overhand is not clear.  I don't think it can be done. Meanwhile, it is becoming apparent that the City of London finance center will move to the Continent, so that big engine of capital growth is history.  Hard to see how the Brits can put it together with all these anchors. 

The same way they survived WW2 and maintained their freedom despite Hitler and Stalin. 

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