China Faces Economic Collapse

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Ahead of trade talks, China makes biggest U.S. soybean purchases since June - traders

 

 

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-ahead-trade-talks-china-193044188.html

[4cryingoutloud + 21]

Wow, so much propaganda. A pity. Henny Penny, the sky is falling! Humpty Dumpty is about to fall! Run! About the only facts here are the values of GDP, Debt, and Trade. True, the dollar value of wages in China has risen generally over time as the standard of living has risen. This value is higher than wages in totally destitute countries and appears on par to wages in Mexico. But to think any low-wage country, or any group of such countries, could replace China as the world's supply chain is simply wishful thinking. The breadth and depth of China's supply chain to the world is staggering. The breadth, depth, and size of China's domestic market is staggering. Based on current data, China's trade to US amounts to only 4% of GDP, and is trending less. If the chain to the US were cut, and the domestic market closed to US companies, China would lose 4% GDP quickly. 4% is not a collapse, and likely would be recovered quickly. But, the US would lose much more economically and strategically: the evidence is already showing, just ask the soybean farmers. The cut would mean US businessmen are shut out of the world's largest market. Market share is extremely difficult to attain when that market is highly competitive and well sourced locally for supply, consumers, finance. The focus of the so-called trade war is not trade: it is war. Trade is a side show in a greater military campaign. Trump has failed on nearly every campaign promise, so he needs something to show to voters for the next election. Trade is the something he thinks can sway voters; it surprises the opposition and makes for good political rhetoric to a dumbed-down drugged-up population. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

8 minutes ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

Wow, so much propaganda. A pity. Henny Penny, the sky is falling! Humpty Dumpty is about to fall! Run! About the only facts here are the values of GDP, Debt, and Trade. True, the dollar value of wages in China has risen generally over time as the standard of living has risen. This value is higher than wages in totally destitute countries and appears on par to wages in Mexico. But to think any low-wage country, or any group of such countries, could replace China as the world's supply chain is simply wishful thinking. The breadth and depth of China's supply chain to the world is staggering. The breadth, depth, and size of China's domestic market is staggering. Based on current data, China's trade to US amounts to only 4% of GDP, and is trending less. If the chain to the US were cut, and the domestic market closed to US companies, China would lose 4% GDP quickly. 4% is not a collapse, and likely would be recovered quickly. But, the US would lose much more economically and strategically: the evidence is already showing, just ask the soybean farmers. The cut would mean US businessmen are shut out of the world's largest market. Market share is extremely difficult to attain when that market is highly competitive and well sourced locally for supply, consumers, finance. The focus of the so-called trade war is not trade: it is war. Trade is a side show in a greater military campaign. Trump has failed on nearly every campaign promise, so he needs something to show to voters for the next election. Trade is the something he thinks can sway voters; it surprises the opposition and makes for good political rhetoric to a dumbed-down drugged-up population. 

And there it is. 

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

And there it is. 

FFS hahah beat me to it.

29 minutes ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

makes for good political rhetoric to a dumbed-down drugged-up population. 

Well atleast you're coming at it from a nice neutral position.

29 minutes ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

to think any low-wage country, or any group of such countries, could replace China as the world's supply chain is simply wishful thinking.

I believe it was Buddha who said ''if something takes time, don't bother.''  

 

P.S - Bonus points for the Humpty Dumpty reference though. You know a post will be good when it starts with that.

 

 

Edited September 13, 2019 by Guest

[4cryingoutloud + 21]

I believe it was Buddha who said ''if something takes time, don't bother.''  

Hmm, I do not see the connection of time or the Buddha to my post, but have you perhaps an independent source for the Buddha quotation?  thanks. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

25 minutes ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

I believe it was Buddha who said ''if something takes time, don't bother.''  

Hmm, I do not see the connection of time or the Buddha to my post, but have you perhaps an independent source for the Buddha quotation?  thanks. 

That was from @DayTrader and not from me. 

And he is joking - look at his 2 comments earlier in his same post above:

"FFS hahah beat me to it."

"Well at least you're coming at it from a nice neutral position."

 

[4cryingoutloud + 21]

plz excuse the error. thanks for clarification. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

1 hour ago, shadowkin said:

FNMA closed today at 3.57

Whose saying trade wars ever end? They wax and wane but never end and take various forms.

I know.  I've been daytrading it.  Out of it now.  Made 20% last week in FNMA.  

But it ain't going to 10 anytime soon, though.  

Edited September 13, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

I believe it was Buddha who said ''if something takes time, don't bother.''  

Hmm, I do not see the connection of time or the Buddha to my post, but have you perhaps an independent source for the Buddha quotation?  thanks. 

Just joking man, but he does have many beautiful quotes!   I have been to Nepal a few times, and to Lumbini, close to the Indian border, where he was born. I was just making a point as you suggested no one can possibly replace China etc. My point was difficult things take time, and because something may take time is no reason not to start, in fact I believe it's the reason you do start. Especially when it's for the good of your country.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 9/6/2019 at 8:03 AM, Jan van Eck said:

I was down South in Atlanta, Georgia, needed to get some eye medication, and met a charming Southern lass at the pharmacy counter.  Man was she just gorgeous. She was chatting with me and so I asked her what was happening in the Man Department.  She looked me straight in the eye and said, "Actually, I.m taking a break from men right now." 

That was her way of saying I had no competition!   Ah, Southern women.....They remind me of bees flying to the honey.....

Or is that the Southern belle way of saying, “You don’t have an ice cube’s chance in hell Mac! Get your medication and move along.”

Just saying...😂

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Or is that the Southern belle way of saying, “You don’t have an ice cube’s chance in hell Mac! Get your medication and move along.”

Just saying...😂

British accent in the south and your made, "Y'all aint from round here are you", - James Bond accent gets stronger- Southern women fish in a barrel, 😂- Love the south for some strange reason..... Great times from Alabama to Texas- Gas stations were my preferred prowling grounds akkkkkkk, to much fun.

Brownsville TX - in Carhart Bib and Brace- British Redneck- Exit hotel - Left USA - Right Matamoros Mexico, I turned right too many times.

I ended up one night in an Irish pub on St Patricks day and went to Mexico with the bar staff, one was a dwarf (Little person) dressed as a lepricorn, off we went, returning a little worse for wear at 0500hrs, ended up crossing the border back to USA with the Lepricorn (surely this won't cause any attention) I had no passport just driving license, (I was a little concerned), but we just passed through border control no issues, Must be the lucky Charms 🤣

Edited September 13, 2019 by James Regan

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Or is that the Southern belle way of saying, “You don’t have an ice cube’s chance in hell Mac! Get your medication and move along.”

Just saying...😂

Douglas, my old chap, be an Optimist!   Look at James and his approach to Immigration Control   (who needs papers?  I'm with my drunken friends!).  You smile; she smiles; life is so much more pleasant!

Edited September 13, 2019 by Jan van Eck

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 9/11/2019 at 10:57 PM, ronwagn said:

Spoken like a mouthpiece of the CCP. At least a fellow traveler. 

Ron, the statements of "HaHaNope 18" that you reference are not accurate. To grasp where China is today in its relationship with the USA and Iran, just for starters, let's revisit the spending of $400 Billion into Iranian infrastructure.  HaHa makes the observation that this is not indicative of a "dying economy."  Yet, what is that $400 billion doing for China when it is sitting in US Treasuries of CD's?  Answer: not much.  The US interest rate in is the very low single digits.  It is roughly where inflation is.  Thus when left non-working, it provides zero to the Chinese economy.  It is a bit like your brother-in-law shouting you a tenner when you are out having some beers; the funds are on the never-never-land repayment system.  Sending the cash into Iran has the benefit of immediately putting more Chinese to work, and recycling more cash back to China for other projects;  China does not do infrastructure deals unless the recipient hires Chinese, firms and people, to do what are essentially turn-key projects, by bids that include design, construction, and maintenance.  Some will have operational contracts included.

Now, what does this do for China?  It puts that dead money back to work, and it opens up new sources of access, and in Iran's case crude oil  (even possibly refined oil products), for China's needs.  You cannot run an economy for 1.3 billion and not have continuing assess to both cheap food and cheap raw  materials.  Building projects inside Iran will at least provide the raw materials, and an overland route to other sources. 

To demonstrate the real need for food imports, note that China now has a 72% import tariff on US soybeans (and other grains).  But, big exemption, Chines state-owned trading houses (importers) are Exempt.  So that tariff/duty is a bit of a chimera.  And this week China lifted the duty on soybeans, and in one day the private traders locked up 600,000 tons of US beans in one day flat.  Delivery is for November-December.  In response, the Merc had its biggest soy gain in the November contract ever, I think up about 20% in one day.  

But let's remember that the US plant of a soybean crop is largely responsive to China's demands for the product.  Go back 25 years and there was a small soybean grow.  The large plantings you have seen recently are all responsive to Chines demand.  What this implies is that the land asset in the US Midwest can and likely will go back to whatever was being grown before.  Whether that is for larger returns or lower returns cannot be calculated, notwithstanding what the talking heads will try to tell you. Why? Because markets are constantly changing. Farmers then to be adaptive and creative, and they will shit their crops to whatever is in demand, and to whomever wants to pay good money for it.  (Are there some short-term losses?  But of course. Nature of the business.)

Moving on to the current pork problem, the Chinese are killing millions of pigs due to the disease ravage.  Now pigs will need to be imported.  I predict that US pigs, probably slaughtered, will be sold to China in massive quantities soon enough.  Whatever that duty is, possibly again 72%, you already know that is going to be lifted. Pork is a major dietary item in China, and it is unthinkable that the Chinese diet for 1.3 billion people is going to shut down because of some trade dispute.  That pork is needed, and the demand for pork is going to override whatever the Communists think or want.  Either that, or there will be massive internal turmoil, and the Communists are not going to let that happen. Plus, China has already bought Smithfield Foods, the largest US pork producer.  What, you buy the company and refuse to allow the products in?  No chance.

Trump has put the Chinese Communists under quite a bit of pressure.  I predict they will fold. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Douglas, my old chap, be an Optimist!   Look at James and his approach to Immigration Control   (who needs papers?  I'm with my drunken friends!).  You smile; she smiles; life is so much more pleasant!

Just winding you up Jan...😄

[Hotone + 412]

4 hours ago, DayTrader said:

He has also showed his very biased anti Brexit stance throughout the process, despite the fact The Bank of England is meant to be impartial to political issues. I don't really care what he says about anything. 

And good luck with the digital stuff Facebook. Had nothing but anti trust issues for years. ''Hmm what shall we do next, seeing as we are so popular?''    '' Let's bring out a currency? '' 

Also, as always here, the thread title is completely ignored, and twisted to ''well the USA has these issues'' , ''what about the USA and this...?'' ....    if you want to compare the issues of China v USA this thread will have 10,000 comments before October. 

China are losing, deal with it. I have no time for further nonsense. 

I am not really interested in whether US or China is losing or winning. Other than the trade war having an impact on my equity portfolio.

For my own financial health it is important to know what this debt will do to my future. If you are interested, I have included some links for you.

Expert insight  on unfunded pensions and retirement:

https://youtu.be/k9_bWbrYPKg

Jim Rickards, Aftermath:

https://youtu.be/Ok73IoKxCss

 

[4cryingoutloud + 21]

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Ron, the statements of "HaHaNope 18" that you reference are not accurate. To grasp where China is today in its relationship with the USA and Iran, just for starters, let's revisit the spending of $400 Billion into Iranian infrastructure.  HaHa makes the observation that this is not indicative of a "dying economy."  Yet, what is that $400 billion doing for China when it is sitting in US Treasuries of CD's?  Answer: not much.  The US interest rate in is the very low single digits.  It is roughly where inflation is.  Thus when left non-working, it provides zero to the Chinese economy.  It is a bit like your brother-in-law shouting you a tenner when you are out having some beers; the funds are on the never-never-land repayment system.  Sending the cash into Iran has the benefit of immediately putting more Chinese to work, and recycling more cash back to China for other projects;  China does not do infrastructure deals unless the recipient hires Chinese, firms and people, to do what are essentially turn-key projects, by bids that include design, construction, and maintenance.  Some will have operational contracts included.

Now, what does this do for China?  It puts that dead money back to work, and it opens up new sources of access, and in Iran's case crude oil  (even possibly refined oil products), for China's needs.  You cannot run an economy for 1.3 billion and not have continuing assess to both cheap food and cheap raw  materials.  Building projects inside Iran will at least provide the raw materials, and an overland route to other sources. 

To demonstrate the real need for food imports, note that China now has a 72% import tariff on US soybeans (and other grains).  But, big exemption, Chines state-owned trading houses (importers) are Exempt.  So that tariff/duty is a bit of a chimera.  And this week China lifted the duty on soybeans, and in one day the private traders locked up 600,000 tons of US beans in one day flat.  Delivery is for November-December.  In response, the Merc had its biggest soy gain in the November contract ever, I think up about 20% in one day.  

But let's remember that the US plant of a soybean crop is largely responsive to China's demands for the product.  Go back 25 years and there was a small soybean grow.  The large plantings you have seen recently are all responsive to Chines demand.  What this implies is that the land asset in the US Midwest can and likely will go back to whatever was being grown before.  Whether that is for larger returns or lower returns cannot be calculated, notwithstanding what the talking heads will try to tell you. Why? Because markets are constantly changing. Farmers then to be adaptive and creative, and they will shit their crops to whatever is in demand, and to whomever wants to pay good money for it.  (Are there some short-term losses?  But of course. Nature of the business.)

Moving on to the current pork problem, the Chinese are killing millions of pigs due to the disease ravage.  Now pigs will need to be imported.  I predict that US pigs, probably slaughtered, will be sold to China in massive quantities soon enough.  Whatever that duty is, possibly again 72%, you already know that is going to be lifted. Pork is a major dietary item in China, and it is unthinkable that the Chinese diet for 1.3 billion people is going to shut down because of some trade dispute.  That pork is needed, and the demand for pork is going to override whatever the Communists think or want.  Either that, or there will be massive internal turmoil, and the Communists are not going to let that happen. Plus, China has already bought Smithfield Foods, the largest US pork producer.  What, you buy the company and refuse to allow the products in?  No chance.

Trump has put the Chinese Communists under quite a bit of pressure.  I predict they will fold. 

Agree:  1/ The Chinese will seek ways and means to use cash productively. Would not everybody do likewise?  2/ The Chinese demand for soybean is huge and US farmers do grow a high quality crop. Fact; the demand is so great, the US soybean farmers are now economically dependent upon China.  3/ Disease has ravaged the Chinese pork industry. China seeks to import pork.

Disagree:  China will never buckle to any pressure from any imperial power. The century of humiliation is over. Pork may be a staple, but the Chinese could live without, as they have proven repeatedly in a 6 thousand year history. The USA is not the only pork producer: sources will be found, stocks will recover, alternatives will be consumed. To opine the Chinese will fold soon is utter hubris and presumption. 

Whatever the art of a Chinese deal Trump may be able to achieve, he will claim a victory. But time will prove it to be a Pyrrhic victory. 

Readers would do well to learn Chinese history from 1800 onward. 

 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

China to Exclude U.S. Soybeans and Pork From Additional Tariffs

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-exclude-u-s-soybeans-and-pork-from-additional-tariffs-11568370755

 

[4cryingoutloud + 21]

40 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

China to Exclude U.S. Soybeans and Pork From Additional Tariffs

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-exclude-u-s-soybeans-and-pork-from-additional-tariffs-11568370755

 

so the game goes: on again, off again.  now tariffs are off.  who can say how long this lasts?  but all this is temporary.  the Chinese will have a long term "solution".   Trump plays poker.  the Chinese play chess.  

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

3 hours ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

so the game goes: on again, off again.  now tariffs are off.  who can say how long this lasts?  but all this is temporary.  the Chinese will have a long term "solution".   Trump plays poker.  the Chinese play chess.  

Winter is coming, winter is coming, the Chinese cannot have a shortage of food and energy and other consumables and commodities. A little give and take game now, China will more than likely reduce tariffs on more US goods and products before or right around Nov. This is a sign for things to come. China needs to feed and heat a large population during the coming winter months. Every major Chinese (includes a wide range from traders, manufacturers, oil gas, petchem, chem, agri etc) have been getting many exemptions for importing US goods and products including foods and oil and gas , petchem etc. Just dont see it openly on the worldwide news as they control the info they want the world and their own people to see. More exemptions and tariff reductions will follow. Their protein staple , pork, is being decimated. China already announced they are going to exempt or reduce tariffs on US pork now.

The game will go on with the Chinese, soon there maybe a declaration that the 2 countries have a new freeze and or suspension on a large range of tariffs because they are working on a new deal. The Chinese will do this till they get past Spring and will jump right back on their "Paper Tiger" fangs showing off.  They will start buying US LNG as well soon by suspending tariffs.

Then the time will come for reality check, The Trumpster will be in the election swing and the Chinese will make all kinds of noise that your tariffs are not working , the elections will happen and soon after if the Trumspter wins , the Chinese will say, we have a deal.

 

If not then they go back to their old status since the incoming Pres. will have no backbone to stand up to them and will not (does not care) if China takes over the whole US economy and uses it as TP.

 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Ron, the statements of "HaHaNope 18" that you reference are not accurate. To grasp where China is today in its relationship with the USA and Iran, just for starters, let's revisit the spending of $400 Billion into Iranian infrastructure.  HaHa makes the observation that this is not indicative of a "dying economy."  Yet, what is that $400 billion doing for China when it is sitting in US Treasuries of CD's?  Answer: not much.  The US interest rate in is the very low single digits.  It is roughly where inflation is.  Thus when left non-working, it provides zero to the Chinese economy.  It is a bit like your brother-in-law shouting you a tenner when you are out having some beers; the funds are on the never-never-land repayment system.  Sending the cash into Iran has the benefit of immediately putting more Chinese to work, and recycling more cash back to China for other projects;  China does not do infrastructure deals unless the recipient hires Chinese, firms and people, to do what are essentially turn-key projects, by bids that include design, construction, and maintenance.  Some will have operational contracts included.

Now, what does this do for China?  It puts that dead money back to work, and it opens up new sources of access, and in Iran's case crude oil  (even possibly refined oil products), for China's needs.  You cannot run an economy for 1.3 billion and not have continuing assess to both cheap food and cheap raw  materials.  Building projects inside Iran will at least provide the raw materials, and an overland route to other sources. 

To demonstrate the real need for food imports, note that China now has a 72% import tariff on US soybeans (and other grains).  But, big exemption, Chines state-owned trading houses (importers) are Exempt.  So that tariff/duty is a bit of a chimera.  And this week China lifted the duty on soybeans, and in one day the private traders locked up 600,000 tons of US beans in one day flat.  Delivery is for November-December.  In response, the Merc had its biggest soy gain in the November contract ever, I think up about 20% in one day.  

But let's remember that the US plant of a soybean crop is largely responsive to China's demands for the product.  Go back 25 years and there was a small soybean grow.  The large plantings you have seen recently are all responsive to Chines demand.  What this implies is that the land asset in the US Midwest can and likely will go back to whatever was being grown before.  Whether that is for larger returns or lower returns cannot be calculated, notwithstanding what the talking heads will try to tell you. Why? Because markets are constantly changing. Farmers then to be adaptive and creative, and they will shit their crops to whatever is in demand, and to whomever wants to pay good money for it.  (Are there some short-term losses?  But of course. Nature of the business.)

Moving on to the current pork problem, the Chinese are killing millions of pigs due to the disease ravage.  Now pigs will need to be imported.  I predict that US pigs, probably slaughtered, will be sold to China in massive quantities soon enough.  Whatever that duty is, possibly again 72%, you already know that is going to be lifted. Pork is a major dietary item in China, and it is unthinkable that the Chinese diet for 1.3 billion people is going to shut down because of some trade dispute.  That pork is needed, and the demand for pork is going to override whatever the Communists think or want.  Either that, or there will be massive internal turmoil, and the Communists are not going to let that happen. Plus, China has already bought Smithfield Foods, the largest US pork producer.  What, you buy the company and refuse to allow the products in?  No chance.

Trump has put the Chinese Communists under quite a bit of pressure.  I predict they will fold. 

Confirmation, although not a long term agreement. He needs to keep the pressure up but has to deal with political pressures too. https://apnews.com/b31b6c9954cb4db9af63ee115923fed4 Pork and Soybean Tariffs listed today.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Any concession on China side is reported here, but when trump backs down yet again (how many times now?) crickets.

The corpocracy is getting annoyed and wants this over, hence trumps "two week" delay. Probably more like "you have two more weeks to wind up this mess" or our money will fund your replacement.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Winter is coming, winter is coming, the Chinese cannot have a shortage of food and energy and other consumables and commodities.

Canada normally sells about 450,000 tonnes of wheat to China, this year we will sell about 4 times as much (~2 million).  They are still buying food...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wheat-canola-china-canada-trade-1.5263313

Edited September 13, 2019 by Enthalpic

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

so the game goes: on again, off again.  now tariffs are off.  who can say how long this lasts?  but all this is temporary.  the Chinese will have a long term "solution".   Trump plays poker.  the Chinese play chess.  

Trump is by far the best negotiator America has ever had. He is holding Xi's feet to the fire. That is one reason Xi is being patient with Hong Kong. 

Edited September 13, 2019 by ronwagn

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

35 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Canada normally sells about 450,000 tonnes of wheat to China, this year we will sell about 4 times as much (~2 million).  They are still buying food...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wheat-canola-china-canada-trade-1.5263313

And what does that have to do with the amount of Tea in China? pun fully intended LOL

Edited September 13, 2019 by ceo_energemsier
Correction

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

47 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Confirmation, although not a long term agreement. He needs to keep the pressure up but has to deal with political pressures too. https://apnews.com/b31b6c9954cb4db9af63ee115923fed4 Pork and Soybean Tariffs listed today.

The pressure is on them, and it is such an extreme pressure, like that one in a high pressure vessel LOL

Majority of the low income and middle income groups are hurting really bad, you dont read about  or hear about it, same with even the upper class and the uber pooper class. There are restrictions in China of how much capital they can move out of the country.

The Chinese financial market has lost over 6 trillion $ while the US has gained.