Oil Production Growth In U.S. Grinds To A Halt

[Guest]

Someone please tell me I'm not the only one who had to google ''genuflection''.

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

 

At present I am still searching for a suitable location, its tough as most positions are taken, but its good to see that this village managed to get theirs back - Linked-In really does work.....

Edited September 7, 2019 by James Regan

[cbrasher1 + 272]

15 hours ago, wrs said:

Rig count continues it's relentless decline, another 4 oil rigs stacked this week.  Production can't increase with rigs being stacked.

yes, actual production can increase with rigs beings stacked.  ducs are sitting all over waiting to be fraced and brought online into production....

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

6 hours ago, SKEP said:

The software auto correct does. A pain in the but.

You elitist nitpick such silly little things.  

People like you are scarey.  Thank God, if not for the Allies the world would be run by collaborators like you.

Funny how you consider yourself an entrepreneur while your you're yours D.J Engineering leeches off of government contracts to survive.

You promised you were leaving because this blog was beneath you.  Please honor your commitment .  

This site will be much poorer if the likes of Jan decide to leave. Other class acts have already left due to the trolling and simple lack of etiquette. 

If your (not you’re) goal is to turn this site into an adolescent bun fight, go to it.

[James Regan + 1,776]

7 hours ago, DayTrader said:

@SKEP   chill the f**k out jeez.

Life is too short.

 

BREXIT - OCTOBER 31ST - HAS PLAN BUT EU DONT WANT US TO LEAVE.

JVANEXIT - NOT POSSIBLE FAR MORE COMPLICATED THAN DEALING WITH THE EU

SKEPXIT - LUXEMBOURG HAS DECIDING VOTE

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

7 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Someone please tell me I'm not the only one who had to google ''genuflection''.

 

You're a trader, and as such are not required to have a significant vocabulary...don't worry about it!🤣

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 hours ago, SKEP said:

The software auto correct does. A pain in the but.

You elitist nitpick such silly little things.  

People like you are scarey.  Thank God, if not for the Allies the world would be run by collaborators like you.

Funny how you consider yourself an entrepreneur while your you're yours D.J Engineering leeches off of government contracts to survive.

You promised you were leaving because this blog was beneath you.  Please honor your commitment .  

Could you please define "elitist", as you are using the term?

[James Regan + 1,776]

55 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Could you please define "elitist", as you are using the term?

I don't mind, jumping in on this one as being from the United Kingdom we are the only ones who can truly give an accurate reply, lets not dilly dally on the Elitist part as it been used completely out of context and makes no sense whatsoever.

If you obsess over every grammatical and structural point, you can come across as stiff. But if you’re lax and make a bunch of simple errors, you’ll come across as stupid. 

We are now entering the realms of Irony, sarcasm sprinkled with a little bit of satire.

You make one mistake and a lot of people will let it go. Two and you’re making them suspicious. Keep that up, with your intelligence taking hits at each turn, and your reader will decide that you’re actually a chimpanzee — and not one of the smart ones, either.

Edited September 7, 2019 by James Regan

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

2 hours ago, cbrasher1 said:

yes, actual production can increase with rigs beings stacked.  ducs are sitting all over waiting to be fraced and brought online into production....

There are also improvements in rig productivity:
1)  Idled rigs are likely obsolete designs; those remaining in service will be the newest and best.  Even with rig count decreasing, new rigs may be replacing older, less efficient rigs. 
2)  As in-service data is collected, machine designs are updated to improve reliability.  This improves uptime, allowing operators to drill the same number of wells with fewer rigs.
3)  Newer designs may be bigger and more powerful. 
4)  As operators learn more about formations, they may be able to optimize their drilling practices.  This would allow them to drill faster using the same equipment.

I don't know for certain that these things are happening, but they're possible.  Rig count is a seriously flawed metric for estimating production. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

15 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

There are also improvements in rig productivity:
1)  Idled rigs are likely obsolete designs; those remaining in service will be the newest and best.  Even with rig count decreasing, new rigs may be replacing older, less efficient rigs. 
2)  As in-service data is collected, machine designs are updated to improve reliability.  This improves uptime, allowing operators to drill the same number of wells with fewer rigs.
3)  Newer designs may be bigger and more powerful. 
4)  As operators learn more about formations, they may be able to optimize their drilling practices.  This would allow them to drill faster using the same equipment.

I don't know for certain that these things are happening, but they're possible.  Rig count is a seriously flawed metric for estimating production. 

Correct for all sectors not only land rigs. The rig count is merely stating how many units are in operation, not all operations are drilling out producing wells, some may be doing appraisal work, intervention or exploration (wild catting) or drilling out dusters.

Some relevant info published a few days ago.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-rig-count-no-longer-173505658.html

Edited September 7, 2019 by James Regan

[wrs + 893]

10 hours ago, SKEP said:

I hate to have to correct you again. 

I am referencing week ending Aug 23rd of 12.5 mm bbls/day production.

The number you point to is June number that was off 125 k over several proceeding months . . . a rounding error. 

Aug 23rd is hardly "harsh" and hardly "crashing"

Even the report you link makes mention of the fact that Permian had to slow due to lack of pipeline take away capacity. The same report projected year Ind production of 12.9 mm bbls/day .  That's increase of 1.1 mm bbls/day for the year.  Respectable.

Work on your math and reading comprehension. You must have been out sick the day they taught math in 5th grade.

No, you need to work on your reading comprehension.  The article references the weekly data averaged for the month vs the actual monthly reported figures.  The weekly data has been over stated every month this year, read the article and look at the numbers.  Of course that would contradict your claim so I don't expect that you will do that.  

As to the 12.5mmbbl/day figure, my point is that it's a WAG and the article plus the data support that claim.

[wrs + 893]

1 hour ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

There are also improvements in rig productivity:
1)  Idled rigs are likely obsolete designs; those remaining in service will be the newest and best.  Even with rig count decreasing, new rigs may be replacing older, less efficient rigs. 
2)  As in-service data is collected, machine designs are updated to improve reliability.  This improves uptime, allowing operators to drill the same number of wells with fewer rigs.
3)  Newer designs may be bigger and more powerful. 
4)  As operators learn more about formations, they may be able to optimize their drilling practices.  This would allow them to drill faster using the same equipment.

I don't know for certain that these things are happening, but they're possible.  Rig count is a seriously flawed metric for estimating production. 

Point 1 was true back in 2014,  but since 2016 everyone has switched to the skiddable rigs.  Here is a chart I made a couple of weeks ago comparing rig counts and production.   Back in 2014 only about 15-20% of rigs were skiddable but now the majority of them are.  That is how production ramped so much with a much lower number of rigs than in 2014.

The improvements in drilling techniques have been ongoing since 2014 and apply to all rigs.  Keep in mind, the skiddable rigs are the productivity increase that everyone has been talking about along with zipper fracs.  

I pointed out in a recent post that losing one of these rigs is like losing 4 of the old ones because a normal pad is set up to drill at least two and usually four from a skiddable.  XTO drilled 12 new wells last year on my Orla section using skiddable rigs.  They were able to drill them at a rate of about one every three weeks using those rigs.

My independent is about to finish the third well (including a sidetrack) since June 27 using the same rig but with two pads.  He put two wells on one pad and is about to finish the third one on a second pad.  Not sure if he is planning to do a fourth before moving to another section or not.  

All this talk about DUCs is just speculation because a producing well could still be categorized as a DUC.   Furthermore, if prices don't improve, the DUCs will not be leading to increased production because they will remain inventoried.

Finally, no one is using rig count to "estimate production" but instead as an indicator of where production is headed and it's headed down based on that metric, irrespective of the DUC count.

Here is a picture of three wells drilled together on a single pad by a skiddable rig.  It is actually 4 but the BOP for one of them is laying on the side because it didn't fit so they have the well capped while waiting on the right BOP to arrive.

 

Edited September 7, 2019 by wrs

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Watching this thread with some wry amusement.

Perhaps it's time for a satire intermission:

Report: There Are Still Incorrect Opinions On The Internet Despite Local Man's Best Efforts

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Okay, I’ll give you that a skiddable rig is a technology improvement...as long as you are drilling pad wells.

It is NOT a technological improvement on the actual drilling process.

Can someone please list the ‘recent’ improvements on dirt rigs, ones that have actually improved or refined the actual drilling operation, since the adoption of top drives?

Cyber chairs... perhaps, bit this has also yielded lazy drillers.

[Happy Go Lucky + 25]

12 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Someone please tell me I'm not the only one who had to google ''genuflection''.

 

Hell... I'm still working on ' trenchantly ' 

[wrs + 893]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, I’ll give you that a skiddable rig is a technology improvement...as long as you are drilling pad wells.

It is NOT a technological improvement on the actual drilling process.

Can someone please list the ‘recent’ improvements on dirt rigs, ones that have actually improved or refined the actual drilling operation, since the adoption of top drives?

Cyber chairs... perhaps, bit this has also yielded lazy drillers.

Another technology improvement  would be zipper fracs but that's completion.  That is another benefit of pad drilling.  Because the well heads are so close, the same pumps can be used for both wells by using a multiplexor or switchable manifold.  So what happens in a zipper frac is that they perf one side while pushing sand on the other.  That maximizes the time available with the big pumps so it saves money and time.

Edited September 7, 2019 by wrs

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

5 hours ago, wrs said:

Another technology improvement  would be zipper fracs but that's completion.  That is another benefit of pad drilling.  Because the well heads are so close, the same pumps can be used for both wells by using a multiplexor or switchable manifold.  So what happens in a zipper frac is that they perf one side while pushing sand on the other.  That maximizes the time available with the big pumps so it saves money and time.

Again, this is NOT a technological improvement to the actual DRILLING process, although, as you say, it is an added efficiency in the hydraulic fracturing process.

It has been mentioned often on this forum that the newer rigs are providing better, faster, more efficient drilling, my question is ‘How?’.

[SKEP + 229]

On 9/7/2019 at 1:56 AM, James Regan said:

 

At present I am still searching for a suitable location, its tough as most positions are taken, but its good to see that this village managed to get theirs back - Linked-In really does work.....

" . . . get theirs . . " 

Don't they teach grammar at Millsfield ?

I see your posse has been busy . .   You lose the debate so attack auto correct spelling.  

I have a busy day ahead, but I'll be back tmorrow to address all the cheap shots.  

Also, you don't need Eck to defend you.  You know he believes your friends on the Arabian peninsula a genetically predisposed to violence. People who think like that are dangerous.

Great uncle T.E. would be disappointed in you.

"Molire Molendo"

Edited September 8, 2019 by SKEP

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

Also, you don't need Eck to defend you.  You know he believes your friends on the Arabian peninsula a genetically predisposed to violence. People who think like that are dangerous.

Well now, that is a rather brash statement.  Whether or not I am "dangerous" is yet to be seen, and even if so, would rapidly be consigned to the ashcan of history.  Getting past that, I assuredly do not believe anybody is "genetically predisposed to violence," there is no evidence to support the proposition that any population group has that as a genetically inherited trait.  So far, the only genetic inherited traits outside of markers including skin pigmentation, hair color, eye color, height, number of finger and toes, certain diseases such as epilepsy and diabetes , possibly schizophrenia,certainly psychopathology,  is a predisposition to substance addiction, overwhelmingly to alcohol  (which is readily and universally accessible).  Violence is a social construct, and in some extent is propelled by substance-abuse addiction, a cultural construct that you then see expressed in the pathologies of various mental illnesses including psychopathy.  

I find it difficult to see how my linking a pre-dispositon to substance abuse and addiction, to societal psychopathologies, makes me "dangerous."  Unless that correlational discourse intrudes into your comfort levels, and provokes a reaction that is, in all candor, irrational and insupportable.  As far as being the Forum psychologist, hey, as they say in Spanish:  "Not my yob."  You are on your own.

[James Regan + 1,776]

5 hours ago, SKEP said:

" . . . get theirs . . " 

Don't they teach grammar at Millsfield ?

I see your posse has been busy . .   You lose the debate so attack auto correct spelling.  

I have a busy day ahead, but I'll be back tmorrow to address all the cheap shots.  

Also, you don't need Eck to defend you.  You know he believes your friends on the Arabian peninsula a genetically predisposed to violence. People who think like that are dangerous.

Great uncle T.E. would be disappointed in you.

"Molire Molendo"

Nice to see you have had enough time and verve to seek out my profile, I find it strange but I'm flattered a little as well. Its Millfield not (Millsfield) you obviously can't read either or define mistakes in grammar.

As you would have seen it was a sporting school very little academia just six hours of sports a day with a sprinkling of latin, French, arithmatic etc. No multiple choice in the exams though, we needed to have a rough idea of what lesson we were being tested on.

Whats really funny is that you were drawn to the village idiot meme, just popped out at ya hey.....

Achieve by Grinding indeed, every day when possible.

Man up and show your face?

Edited September 8, 2019 by James Regan

[Guest]

5 hours ago, SKEP said:

" . . . get theirs . . " 

Don't they teach grammar at Millsfield ?

21 minutes ago, James Regan said:

I find it strange but I'm flattered a little as well.

Get theirs back is correct, that's the joke.

Get theres would mean 'get there is' and makes no sense at all. Their suggests possessive. Aside from this fact, this argument has merit. I guess. The possessive element would refer to the village and THEIR idiot. 

The idea that theirs needs an apostrophe comes out of the fact that on virtually every other word, 's indicates possession, so English speakers sometimes think theirs should be spelled their's. However, this is always incorrect – theirs is the only correct spelling.

I don't actually care about this kinda thing generally as people all over the world in fairness get things wrong, including the English. But if you're gonna argue about something then I find facts are often useful. 

 

Edited September 8, 2019 by Guest

[James Regan + 1,776]

Irony-Just looking at the differences between English and the bastardised version spoken outside of Britain and this popped up.

Edited September 8, 2019 by James Regan

[Guest]

oh there are thousands

 

Edited September 8, 2019 by Guest

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

The insults getting insinuated are perhaps starting to lean a bit too much toward personal acrimony and veering too far away from just jocular banter.

Please feel free to run with scissors, but kindly refrain from actually trying to poke somebody else's eyes out with said scissors.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

I already gently warned earlier about avoiding personal insults in this thread.  It has since escalated, despite the warning.

So ... I cleaned up the thread a bit, and have temporarily locked this thread for today, a time out, for people to cool down.