Oil Production Growth In U.S. Grinds To A Halt

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

8 hours ago, DayTrader said:

@Enthalpic  , THIS is stroking the ego!

Come on, fellas, I'm a lot better looking than that!  No need to downplay it, I can handle it.  

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

7 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

How deep are those aquifers? My guess is they're too shallow to be directly affected. Now, Disposal Wells? They're another story

Sorry if I was not clear.  The water source is exclusively surface lakes, reservoirs created by dams in the Appalachian Mountains in Upstate New York.  Now the water from those lakes is piped via giant underground pipes to the City.  Those pipes are referred to as Aqueducts.  There are no aquifers.  The Aqueducts are perhaps 30 feet in diameter, and they run at perhaps 30 to 90 feet below the surface  (except where they run underneath a mountain, of course).  The aqueducts were all done by blasting and picking a hundred years ago, a monster effort mostly by immigrant Irish hand labor.  Still works to a charm today.

All that water for NYC is surface water.  None is from aquifers.

The gas drilling at 9,000 feet is way, way below any possible interference with the surface water.  Nonetheless, the Legislature of NY State has banned the process out of a fear of doing anything that might hurt the water source and delivery. Whether they are right or wrong in some technical sense is not the issue.  The reality is that is is prohibited.  

Edited September 11, 2019 by Jan van Eck
clarified the NYC water is all surface water

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 9/10/2019 at 1:03 AM, DayTrader said:

Go for it Ron, send via the message feature

I have eleven gigabytes of RAM in my monster HP machine, and Ron managed to blow that up in an attempted download with the size of his files.  Be forewarned.  Take you at least fifteen lifetimes to read them all. 

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Be forewarned

Yeah he's only sent a few links and pretty huge. Laptop doesn't know what's going on. Very interesting though.

Edited September 11, 2019 by Guest

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

U.S. crude output to grow slower-than-expected to record - EIA

 

Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise by 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019 to a record of 12.24 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, slightly lower than its previous forecast for a rise of 1.28 million bpd.

The output in 2020 is forecast to rise by 990,000 bpd to 13.23 million bpd, according to the EIA.

“EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook continues to forecast record U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 2020,” said EIA Administrator, Dr. Linda Capuano.

 

U.S. crude output has surged to records above 12 million bpd this year, thanks to gains from the Permian basin spanning Texas and New Mexico, the biggest oil patch in the country. The United States is now the world’s largest producer, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Still, the rate of growth has slowed, with U.S. energy firms reducing the number of oil rigs operating for the ninth straight month to its lowest since January 2018 as most producers cut spending on new drilling this year.

A trade war between China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies, has roiled financial markets and sparked worries about economic and oil demand growth.

 

The EIA also cut its 2019 world oil demand growth forecast by 110,000 bpd to 890,000 bpd. In the monthly forecast, the agency cut its world oil demand growth estimate for 2020 by 30,000 bpd to 1.40 million bpd.

Meanwhile, the EIA forecast U.S. oil demand for 2019 to rise by 140,000 bpd to 20.59 million bpd, down from 210,000 bpd in its previous estimate. The agency also estimates U.S. oil demand will rise by 260,000 bpd to 20.85 million bpd in 2020, lower than a previous forecast of a 260,000 bpd increase. (Reporting by Devika Krishna Kumar in New York; Editing by Richard Chang and Marguerita Choy)

[Nuno Ramos + 1]

On ‎9‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 4:10 PM, James Regan said:

Dashing Indeed and probably the best dead ball shot the world has known, your cover has been blown Jan van Eckham

Do we need to be subjected to this coquettish banter.

If you want to flirt you can go to sites that cater to such.

You can play internet footsie or stroke egos there. 

Edited September 12, 2019 by Nuno Ramos

[James Regan + 1,776]

6 minutes ago, Nuno Ramos said:

Do we need to be subjected to this coquettish banter.

If you want to flirt you can go to sites that cater to such. You can play internet footsie their

Hi SKEP.......

[Nuno Ramos + 1]

1 hour ago, Nuno Ramos said:

Do we need to be subjected to this coquettish banter.

If you want to flirt you can go to sites that cater to such.

You can play internet footsie or stroke egos there. 

This forum is for grown ups. 

[Selva + 252]

7 minutes ago, Nuno Ramos said:

This forum is for grown ups. 

Then what are you doing here? 

[Guest]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

I'm a bit late to the party but would be remiss (to myself) in not registering my profound belief. The EIA is like a verse from Shakespeare: A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. 

When you look at their estimates of stored supply, there is a ten-million-barrel drawdown one week, a 350,000 buildup the next. Only when you go to find out why, and actually look at the manufacturing index, the home-builder's index, the refinery feedstock load that week--any index of what actually uses less or more of petroleum--there has been no demonstrable change. And yet the EIA moves markets. 

As a man who makes his living off oil and gas, I must reluctantly admit to some bitter truths: 1) The world is over-supplied with crude oil right now, if you measure it only on an as-needed basis. 2) To have a wee bit laid aside for a major disruption, the supply-demand ratio is just about right. 3) The current price is artificially low for Saudi Arabia and Oman and Nigeria and Iraq to balance their budgets, and also too low to keep most shale drillers from going broke. 4) Ergo, we're going to wallow out about $137 B worth of junk bonds floated to cowboys with more hat than cattle, see the super-majors gobble up most of those big-hat shale companies, and watch the Saudi scorpion sting a host of too-rich guys in the Saudi Aramco IPO. 5) About year 2022, we're going to probably be wondering about two unusual monetary events: negative interest rates and why in the holy hell we sold our Tier One tight oil more cheaply than Starbucks coffee. 

[Toranaga + 49]

@Gerry Maddoux  All good points. The attack on the Saudi oil facilities this weekend is a big escalation. Clearly an operation run by Iran.  Iran knew on Tuesday that Bolton was fired, and Trump offered to talk to them later in the week. Trump comes out looking like a dove. Now Iran has done this and it plays right into the hands of the hard-liners in the Trump admin and it might even shift the Europeans more to the American point-of-view. The attack also benefits the United States because the U.S. is the largest oil power now. High prices are great for us and help alleviate the $400 billion shale debt bubble. Very stupid move by Iran.  

[Rashed ALSAYED + 11]

totally agree with you mate

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

48 minutes ago, Rashed ALSAYED said:

totally agree with you mate

Rashed, try to "quote" at least a small snippet so we know what comment you are in agreement with.  Thank you. 

 

18 hours ago, Toranaga said:

Very stupid move by Iran.  

The thugs and psychos in charge in Iran are not thinking about money or oil prices; for them, it is about hurting Saudi Arabia and hurting them hard, including killing their citizens.  The rest of it is not even on their radar.  If they could kill everyone in Saudi Arabia and in turn would lost half their population as war casualties, the psychos would do it.  I invite readers here to ponder that. 

[Toranaga + 49]

6 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

The thugs and psychos in charge in Iran are not thinking about money or oil prices; for them, it is about hurting Saudi Arabia and hurting them hard, including killing their citizens.  The rest of it is not even on their radar.  If they could kill everyone in Saudi Arabia and in turn would lost half their population as war casualties, the psychos would do it.  I invite readers here to ponder that. 

Agreed that it is really about ruining the Saudi Aramco listing. To paraphrase Trump, "There are very bad people, on both sides." !!! 

Edited September 15, 2019 by Toranaga

[Charlie Gee + 2]

On 9/4/2019 at 6:13 AM, James Regan said:

"Lower oil prices and ongoing financial stress in the U.S. shale industry are creating headwinds for drillers, and it appears increasingly likely that supply growth could undershoot forecasts.

U.S. oil production fell in June to 12.082 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to new data released by the EIA on Friday. That is a decline of 33,000 bpd from May – not a huge drop off, but a decline nonetheless. In previous months, maintenance at offshore oil fields made up a big chunk of the declines. While the overall figures for the entire U.S. appeared to disappoint, temporary declines offshore masked ongoing growth in the Permian. But this time around, blame cannot simply be pinned on offshore maintenance."

The Permian was used as the benchmark and the US Trophy play which would dominate world oil, has already peaked, what does this say for the rest of the Shale plays currently joining Permian on the podium. How can any credibility be given to the long turn forecast with US Shale?

We do not see this kind of "flash in the pan" declines with conventional oil plays, they last a life time and very difficult to see fields depleted or becoming unviable within ones career, happens yes but its rare and not the norm which is now evident with the Shale plays. Am I wrong to say that this side of the Industry is a bank heist, cut and run?

Looking forward to when the Hague starts the hearings into "Crimes Against the Oil Field".

 

[Guest]

Good point James. So good it needed saying twice it seems. 

[cbrasher1 + 272]

my thoughts, for all the naysayers, who can provide logic to why companies, including Chevron, BP, Exxon are throwing BILLIONS at a dead horse as some think US oil is soon to be? Pipelines, ship channel work to accomodate tankers for export?  Refinery projects? @DayTrader do you invest in oil to lose money??  I'm just using your trades as an example, I don't think you try to lose money, businesses are in it to make money also, yes? Rigs are stacked, yes, but output is still pretty consistent.  There will be mergers, some who hang it up, but I don't believe all the progress or investments to be in vain...but what do I know, just a man bein a hand in West Texas....

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, cbrasher1 said:

in West Texas....

 

I trade, I don't invest, and no, I don't try to lose money funnily enough haha. Which 'trades as an example' do you mean? Long in oil ? 

 

Edited September 17, 2019 by Guest

[cbrasher1 + 272]

19 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

 

I trade, I don't invest, and no, I don't try to lose money funnily enough haha. Which 'trades as an example' do you mean? Long in oil ? 

 

I kind of mis-typed that but my point was comparing your trading to companies' investment...short of it was anyone putting money into trades/investments is not to lose money, so why are companies pouring money into infrastructure if it is dead as people suggest on the forum? maybe I need sleep....2.5 hrs of 16 to go, lol

[Guest]

Haha no I get ya, I think      Sometimes we all just type away and forget what the original thread title was. I day trade so short term, sometimes very short term. The long term aspects and goals and success or lack of it of individual companies is irrelevant to me. I don't trade stocks pretty much ever. @Zhong Lu  is the stocks guy I believe.  

Edited September 17, 2019 by Guest

[James Regan + 1,776]

28 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Haha no I get ya, I think      Sometimes we all just type away and forget what the original thread title was. I day trade so short term, sometimes very short term. The long term aspects and goals and success or lack of it of individual companies is irrelevant to me. I don't trade stocks pretty much ever. @Zhong Lu  is the stocks guy I believe.  

Thats why I got out of it, Oil trading you need to focus all your attention, and be prepared to act quickly, its like playing poker with mad men. I have a friend in Houston who traded futures, these guys were trading athletes, up at three in the morning, head to the office, hit the basket ball court, get prepped and were a solid team. Lots of rules in the small group, these guys made fortunes and got out. I asked him for a tip and his reply he would never promote trading oil to friends or give advise as you can lose your ass in a minute. He didn't he now has a 10,000 square ft mansion sized ass.

Need to trade in Tanker loads not BBls with someone else's money, these are the smart guys.

I never liked the long plays on stocks, I was attracted to commodities mainly Gold, its basically gambling with some knowledge of what the deck is going to show, exciting and thats the problem with commodities your heart will take control ad it easy to become cocky, need to set your jump ship price and expect to take hits, if you get on a roll you will lose your ass in the end. High Risk commodity trading is a rush no doubt.

Edited September 17, 2019 by James Regan

[Guest]

Haha true, have hedge fund friend in Michigan who deals with those kinda amounts. Ridiculous money.

But you only lose your ass in a minute if it's a position you've taken that's too big for your bankroll. Little and often baby. In and out. Hear what you're saying but sometimes you can just ride a few candles and get outta Dodge happily. If every slight move makes you have a panic attack you shouldn't be in there.

20 minutes ago, James Regan said:

if you get on a roll you will lose your ass in the end.

Haha well I hope not. Again, that should only happen with cockiness and increasing your positions beyond your bankroll, mixed with stubbornness and stupidity. You gotta take emotion out of it, like poker.

P.S - I used to play poker for a living. Still play now and again but yeah there are a lot of similarities actually. Your poker metaphor is true. 

Edited September 17, 2019 by Guest

[James Regan + 1,776]

9 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

But you only lose your ass in a minute if it's a position you've taken that's too big for your bankroll.

True, its like a casino, you should only enter with the amount of money in your pocket you are prepared to lose, the problem comes when you start winning and suddenly the pocket limit you were prepared to lose suddenly gets bigger, you can be the most determined person but if you dont stick to that original value, its doomed, you will leave with an empty pockets. When your bankroll increases due to the game your playing, all bets are off and the heart often takes over. Its a profession and you must keep emotion out of the game, but its not that simple, your always one trade or one hand away from going home in tears. Make your plan and stick to it thats the golden rule.

 

Edited September 17, 2019 by James Regan

[Guest]

Haha look at my post, had literally just added to it. Almost same words mate.