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Experts review drone damage . Say Saudis need to do a lot of explaining.

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7 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Who claimed this though?

Well, you have the Men in Black, then there are those Women in black, and then there are those Houthi guys sitting in Sana'a, so my guess is it was the Houthi guys, or someone speaking for them.  My guess is that it is not far from the mark.  

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30 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

It seems to me that for the tanks to get punctured like that, somebody or some group managed to slip in within a short distance, perhaps 40 miles or so, and then launched a series of rockets complete with one of those cameras in the nose and then they were guided to the target with a remote joystick.  If the bandits were all standing at one point and launched at one point then it would explain the similar points of tank entry when looking from the same spot.  Otherwise the whole thing gets just too fuzzy for logical deduction. 

The claim is made that these mini-rockets or drones or whatever they were, cost only $15,000 each.  A figure that low would preclude a longer-range rocket, as the size and weight of fuel and the complexity of control is going to increase substantially as the needed range increases.  All in all, I suggest it points to other factions involved.  Hey, who knows, maybe MBS has enemies.....

If targeting was done with GPS and tanks were tagged the same way - they would be extremely similar. Or if they made their final approach with computer vision (which would be pretty easy with those targets), they would also hit the same way.

In my mind, they're actually more likely to hit the same way if controlled by a computer program than if shot/guided by hand.

Also, as far as the technology here - I don't see anything that couldn't be done with off-the-shelf components and a raspberry Pi. Hardest thing would be to get a drone to carry enough fuel to travel that far, but honestly that would just make it large. (Weight ratios matter less when things are large - hence why large drones have longer flight times, and a Cessna 172 you're counting every gallon of weight, where a 777, it doesn't really matter how much your passengers weigh)

Self correcting for wind, check. Constantly check altitude in front of them to insure they don't hit a structure, check, auto 'return home' feature to get them to site, check (btw, most GPS are accurate to within 3 feet. I've worked on GPS that were accurate to within inches). Really, yes, you have to have some smart people, but a few (admittedly very well trained/educated) friends of mine could pull this technology together in a few months - unless I'm missing something here...? I don't see a technical reason Iran couldn't have pulled this off.

That all said - the only reason I could see that they would is an act of sheer desperation, and I just don't believe sanctions (or anything) is hitting them THAT hard. They just don't have the motive. Israel, World oil producers, the US, heck, even KSA stand to benefit more. And that's not even getting into the interests of the powerful behind the scenes...

Honestly, President Trump's restraint and very careful word choice seem to support that line of thinking. Will be interesting.

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8 hours ago, Jabbar said:

Then compare that to the towering black smoke rising 1000 meters into sky for effect only. Suspicious ?

Refineries tend to locate their emergency flare pits outside of main complex. I’m not familiar with this exact one but few people on this forum worked there. Or perhaps there are downstream experts who could tell it from areal photo? 

Follow Occam’s Razor - Saudi not benefiting from showing their assets are vulnerable prior to the IPO; any temporary oil price increase will be discarded in future earnings; Houties at war with Saudi, attacked with drones and rockets before, claimed responsibility; Iraq denied involvement although likely source of weapons. 

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4 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Need the SkyHunter for low altitude drones. This is all very, very interesting. Somehow I don't see low-flying drones traversing the Persian Gulf to hit these tanks. Could have been the Quds Force helping the Houthis, even from the southern part of KSA. Whatever it was didn't seem to work.

Saudies have technology...

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https://www.uaebarq.ae/en/2019/09/17/oil-supply-is-back-to-what-it-was-before-the-attack-but-we-dont-know-yet-who-is-responsible-saudi-energy-minister/

wow. amazing. a refinery back to full scale production in only a few days after an attack. materials, reconstruction, safety and technical testings, and more, all done in a few days only. gotta give the Saudis credit. or, maybe the real story is different?

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7 minutes ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

https://www.uaebarq.ae/en/2019/09/17/oil-supply-is-back-to-what-it-was-before-the-attack-but-we-dont-know-yet-who-is-responsible-saudi-energy-minister/

wow. amazing. a refinery back to full scale production in only a few days after an attack. materials, reconstruction, safety and technical testings, and more, all done in a few days only. gotta give the Saudis credit. or, maybe the real story is different?

Question the official narrative, because it makes no sense.

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(edited)

That's because it's bullshit Tom. 

Edited by DayTrader
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48 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

That's because it's bullshit

Which part of the story do you presume is bullshit? The original story, or the claim that production will be back online sooner than initially thought? I personally believe it is in Aramcos best interest to sugar coat the whole situation with the IPO coming up. Just curious on you're thoughts.  

 

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When I was in college I remember seeing a posting for a class on building guided missiles. In order to take the class you had to be a U.S. citizen, pass a background check, and be a student with some energetic material re-reqs completed. The class was graded on the ability for the rocket you built to travel 20 miles and hit a 1 square meter ground target, as I recall. From what I understand, most of the students got an A and hit the target. I don't know anything about the payload, flight characteristics, etc. They could have just lobbed up rockets like mortars for example and guided them down, but they were only undergraduate students on a paultry budget from the school. In fact, as I recall, the class posting advertised the majority of parts for the rockets as being available from local hardware stores. This was 2015 or so, not that long ago.

 

So, I suspect there are a lot of people capable of building these sorts of drones/missiles with readily available materials. All though a more detailed flight path and longer distance would be exponentially more difficult, I admit.

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9 minutes ago, Ethan Ireland said:

Which part of the story do you presume is bullshit?

I find the lack of information and 'fact' coming out of this situation very suspicious. As Doug has stated in a few threads now, we actually know nothing concrete at all other than this facility was attacked. Anything I say would be pure opinion, and even when the 'facts' are released, well, let's see.

If you want my opinion, put simply, I find the lack of anything concrete, after 4 days, very odd. That said, people clearly know things and are not willing to release it yet. Fine. I'm not going to bother commenting on the rumour mill churning away in MSM. Soon we will know I guess. Whose version we 'know' or are fed is another matter.

It's gone from Yemen to Iran to drone to missile to production screwed to production fine to IPOs to satellite images to elections to Russia to Bolton to Pompeo to the fucking Tooth Fairy.

It's 2019. People clearly know everything already. Who are we kidding?  

In answer to your question, there literally is no 'story'. And even when we do get it, it'll be surrounded in hypotheticals, conspiracies, truth, bullshit and rumour. 

Haha just ignore me, I just want concrete news for selfish trading purposes. I'm the worst, but I'm honest. 

 

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I always find it amazing just how much can be written with so little information. I tend to agree that it seems odd more evidence hasn't been presented in whatever direction it might lead. At this point, everything I've heard seems to be grasping at straws and based mostly on guesses without anything "concrete". 

 

2 hours ago, DayTrader said:

That's because it's bullshit

I don't think he's wrong is what I'm saying.

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31 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

I find the lack of information and 'fact' coming out of this situation very suspicious. As Doug has stated in a few threads now, we actually know nothing concrete at all other than this facility was attacked. Anything I say would be pure opinion, and even when the 'facts' are released, well, let's see.

If you want my opinion, put simply, I find the lack of anything concrete, after 4 days, very odd. That said, people clearly know things and are not willing to release it yet. Fine. I'm not going to bother commenting on the rumour mill churning away in MSM. Soon we will know I guess. Whose version we 'know' or are fed is another matter.

It's gone from Yemen to Iran to drone to missile to production screwed to production fine to IPOs to satellite images to elections to Russia to Bolton to Pompeo to the fucking Tooth Fairy.

It's 2019. People clearly know everything already. Who are we kidding?  

In answer to your question, there literally is no 'story'. And even when we do get it, it'll be surrounded in hypotheticals, conspiracies, truth, bullshit and rumour. 

Haha just ignore me, I just want concrete news for selfish trading purposes. I'm the worst, but I'm honest. 

 

Yes, well said. It’s mind boggling that a plant of this size, that appeared to be severely damaged to the point that analysts were predicting outages to last months, can all of a sudden be churning out a large amount of oil so soon. Although to my knowledge Aramco ministers never gave a concrete number on current production. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Hopefully we shall see the truth soon enough. 

Inventory draws for this week might tell a very different story. 

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1 minute ago, Ethan Ireland said:

Inventory draws for this week might tell a very different story

Of course, that's assuming you can trust that data, too 😉

What are skeptics to do......

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If the drones, rockets, or whatever came across the Persian Gulf, I would expect the US Navy to have spotted them on radar.  Not necessarily take action, but have a record of the flight path.  

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(edited)

17 hours ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

Have you piloted such commercially available drones, presumably accurate at high speed over very long distance in a harsh environment, and capable of carrying ordnance?  If so, please give the details; manufacturer, model, cost, vendor, etc., for I would like to try such a drone, if possible, for civilian hobby use of course. Myself, I have piloted drones, as a hobby for civilian use, and can say the accuracy alleged is extremely difficult to achieve; but then, my drone was not of the military standard. Unfortunately, I crashed mine into bits and have been absent from this activity for some time now. Still, always good to get caught up again. 

Every standard hobbyist drone can maintain height and can return to home.  Not talking quad copters here.  All that is required is a minor software change to set height(built in) and to change the "HOME" GPS coordinate when you launch.  RC auto pilots are dime a dozen.  Most of the big RC jets have them as you have something that weighs 50lbs traveling at 200mph and if you are at an RC aircraft show, that would kill someone if it ploughed into the crowd. 

Here is listing of ebay products which ALL could be used and have been around for 10+ years: https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?LH_CAds=&_ex_kw=&_fpos=&_fspt=1&_mPrRngCbx=1&_nkw=rc+airplane+autopilot&_sacat=&_sadis=&_sop=12&_udhi=&_udlo=&_fosrp=1

We are talking ~$200 for a nice one.  Much less for a little more work.

This is NOT rocket science guys. 

PS: Easy enough to set height via checking for minimum before it "lands" via google earth as you check elevation along flight path... 

PPS: The so called "experts" on CNBC aren't worth lighting a match to their degrees based anywhere in reality. 

Edited by footeab@yahoo.com
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(edited)

19 minutes ago, Ethan Ireland said:

Hopefully we shall see the truth soon enough. 

16 minutes ago, PE Scott said:

Of course, that's assuming you can trust that data

I believe nothing, but hey, Mike will get the facts. So reassuring.

 

Edited by DayTrader
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(edited)

22 minutes ago, MaxNix said:

If the drones, rockets, or whatever came across the Persian Gulf, I would expect the US Navy to have spotted them on radar.  Not necessarily take action, but have a record of the flight path.  

I was in the Navy as an OS (I operated radars) from 2003-2008. You are 100% correct. If there were drones anywhere over waters occupied by the U.S. Navy, we would have seen them. I have no doubt an alternate land route was taken if the U.S. didnt see them in the Persian gulf. 

 

Also, see C-RAMs for why I also find this suspicious. 

 

Edited by PE Scott
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Just now, PE Scott said:

Of course, that's assuming you can trust that data, too 😉

What are skeptics to do......

Yay, I get to recycle my old memes in an appropriate context : )

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Hey, if it is so easy to build drones or missiles capable of carrying a significant payload and being guided with pinpoint accuracy.... Why have the Palestinians been using unguided Qassam rockets for decades?

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2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Hey, if it is so easy to build drones or missiles capable of carrying a significant payload and being guided with pinpoint accuracy.... Why have the Palestinians been using unguided Qassam rockets for decades?

Great question, honestly. I have no idea.

Perhaps they lack an education in energetic materials with an internship somewhere like EMRTC? Or they didn't attend the cruise missile lecture at their school? /s

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It’s one thing to have the hardware, it’s another to have the ability and will to use it

Kind of like most people on sportbikes.

(Wait for smart assed comment by James...😂).

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