The world’s energy consumption is set to increase by almost 50 percent until 2050

[James Regan + 1,776]

All end-use sectors will see energy consumption growing through 2050, according to the IEO2019. The industrial sector—including refining, manufacturing, mining, construction, and agriculture—will account for more than half of the global end-use energy consumption with energy use rising by over 30 percent from 2018 to 2050, the EIA says.

Energy use in the transportation sector will also increase—by almost 40 percent, the EIA notes, with developing economies expected to see much stronger growth in personal travel and freight movement than many developed countries. In non-OECD countries, energy consumption in the transportation sector will surge by nearly 80 percent through 2050

“With the rapid growth of electricity generation, renewables—including solar, wind, and hydroelectric power—are the fastest-growing energy source between 2018 and 2050, surpassing petroleum and other liquids to become the most used energy source in the Reference case,” the EIA said.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asia-To-Lead-50-Rise-In-Global-Energy-Use-By-2050.html

I am a little confused with this article, if refining, manufacturing, mining, construction and agriculture accounting for more than half of the global end use energy consumption by 2050, who or what will be providing the feedstocks for the afore mentioned areas, I would hazard a guess that it will be fossil fuels?

At what point will we be manufacturing, refining, constructing, farming with wind or hydro power, can we make things out of wind?

I don't see where the transition of weening us from carbon based materials to wind based materials will occur, am I missing something?

Renewables will have a segment I have no doubts about that, but where are we going to get the raw materials to build these systems and eventually replace the fossil based feedstocks in manufacturing, the list is endless of what we use everyday from fossil fuels, wheres the plan for this I haven't seen anything.

Is there something I have missed??

 

 

Edited September 25, 2019 by James Regan
Blatant Denial

[Boat + 1,323]

7 minutes ago, James Regan said:

All end-use sectors will see energy consumption growing through 2050, according to the IEO2019. The industrial sector—including refining, manufacturing, mining, construction, and agriculture—will account for more than half of the global end-use energy consumption with energy use rising by over 30 percent from 2018 to 2050, the EIA says.

Energy use in the transportation sector will also increase—by almost 40 percent, the EIA notes, with developing economies expected to see much stronger growth in personal travel and freight movement than many developed countries. In non-OECD countries, energy consumption in the transportation sector will surge by nearly 80 percent through 2050

“With the rapid growth of electricity generation, renewables—including solar, wind, and hydroelectric power—are the fastest-growing energy source between 2018 and 2050, surpassing petroleum and other liquids to become the most used energy source in the Reference case,” the EIA said.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asia-To-Lead-50-Rise-In-Global-Energy-Use-By-2050.html

I am a little confused with this article, if refining, manufacturing, mining, construction and agriculture accounting for more than half of the global end use energy consumption by 2050, who or what will be providing the feedstocks for the afore mentioned areas, I would hazard a guess that it will be fossil fuels?

At what point will we be manufacturing, refining, constructing, farming with wind or hydro power, can we make things out of wind?

I don't see where the transition of weening us from carbon based materials to wind based materials will occur, am I missing something?

Renewables will have a segment I have no doubts about that, but where are we going to get the raw materials to build these systems and eventually replace the fossil based feedstocks in manufacturing, the list is endless of what we use everyday from fossil fuels, wheres the plan for this I haven't seen anything.

Is there something I have missed??

 

 

I can only guess you missed the part where it is clearly stated wind, solar and hydroelectric power will not only be the fastest growing part of the industrial sector power needs but overtake Petroleum and other liquids.

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, Boat said:

I can only guess you missed the part where it is clearly stated wind, solar and hydroelectric power will not only be the fastest growing part of the industrial sector power needs but overtake Petroleum and other liquids.

@Boat Well noted, and how do you propose to replace Petroleum and other liquids, where applicable, potential energy is not a feedstock its potential that being is has latent qualities or abilities that may be developed or may not. It has zero physical properties, it can't be seen or touched its potential in every aspect.

Will we potentially find another source of material to take the place of carbon based materials in manufacturing equal to that of petroleum? If so please enlighten me, I guess I am asking? 

Edited September 25, 2019 by James Regan

[butasha + 123]

James. Don’t let small details get in the way of an agenda 😏

[James Regan + 1,776]

And now next day......

Comments from a "secret" Survey of oil executives.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Secret-Survey-US-Shale-In-A-State-Of-Deep-Anxiety.html

On operational and cost problems:

• “[M]any oil shale projects are failing to meet production projections… Further cost declines will not be forthcoming.
• “The industry is admitting what independents who drilled with industry partners early on figured out: You cannot make money drilling at this price structure. An ongoing drilling program consumes all your returns and continues to require new money.”
• “We are seeing increased costs in supplies, and vendors are attributing the increases to tariffs.”
• “Over $130 billion of junk status bonds are coming due after 2020 over a two-year period for those that got in the treadmill drilling business, with wells that decline 70 percent in the first year.”

On the slowdown in drilling and production:

• “U.S. oil production is about to fall significantly. The rig count has declined dramatically from one year ago (down 170 rigs), and our customers are not completing wells in order to save cash flow. This all equals a big shift down.”
• “E&P companies have pulled back on spending and continue to pressure service company prices. I expect there will be a number of insolvent companies looking for help in the next six months.”

And on pressure from environmentalists:

• Relating to proposed carbon taxes: “That would kill the independent arena of the U.S. domestic oil industry that just vaulted America to the world’s #1 oil producer spot. And people would be willing to sacrifice that contribution to the U.S. trade balance [and] domestic employment, as well as tax payments to states? It’s a sad testimonial to the decline of the American educational system!”
• “Protestors are so rude and ugly toward oil and gas but, yet, they want our money. Protestors do not have a solution to replace oil and gas in New Mexico.”

[James Regan + 1,776]

Pushmi-pullyu Syndrome at play in shale statistics

The pushmi-pullyu  is a "gazelle/unicorn cross" with two heads (one of each) at opposite ends of its body. The grateful monkeys in Africa persuade it to accompany Dr. Dolittle to England to earn money for him (in Doctor Dolittle's Circus and Doctor Dolittle's Caravan). The pushmi-pullyu usually only uses one of its heads to talk, reserving the other for eating (thus allowing it to eat while speaking without being rude) and claims that its great-grandfather was the last UNICORN.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Youre-Footing-The-Bill-For-Bankrupt-Shale-Drillers.html

A wave of oil and gas wells abandoned by bankrupted drillers could cost the U.S. government hundreds of millions of dollars

More eye-opening was the fact that the agency identified nearly 3,000 wells that are at risk of becoming orphaned. Costs for reclaiming old wells vary widely, so much so that the GAO offered two scenarios: low-cost wells can cost $20,000 a piece, while high-costs wells can reach $145,000. For those 3,000 at-risk wells, the cleanup tab for the federal government could range from $46 million to $333 million.