Can Argentina's Dead Cow be milked? n Argentina, politics threatens oil production growth again

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

In Argentina, politics threatens oil production growth again

 

 

In Argentina, politics threatens oil production growth again: Fuel for Thought

As Argentina stands on the verge of regime change, the question for oil companies is whether politics or the geology of Vaca Muerta, one of the world’s biggest shale plays, will prevail.

Oil companies are used to dealing with geopolitical risk, often operating in volatile regions when the resource potential is high enough. Argentina holds some of the world’s largest shale oil and natural gas resources and has a 100-year-old industry with plenty of infrastructure and talented engineers and fieldworkers.

 

When conservative businessman Mauricio Macri won the presidency in 2015 after 12 years of populist rule, optimism swelled.

Macri scrapped many of the capital, currency, pricing and trade controls of his predecessors, and investment surged in Vaca Muerta, a huge shale play in the southwest. Oil and gas production recovered from more than a decade of decline.

 

 

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

Got money in Argentina, and I at the start figured it was 50-50 I would make any money, or get any money out.  Why Argentina is such a basket case.  Socialism, decides to price fix and screw over everyone.  Mostly their own citizens who now import their fuel instead of make it.  If I lose my money it more than likely means USA refinery exports will be making money.

PS: Does anyone realize how insane Australia is?  They import the VAST majority of their vehicular fuel...  Who knew that when you shut down your refineries your "fuel stocks" drop to less than a month of supply......  Anyone have experience in the formations in Oz?  They have NG... yet are not converting their vehicles to LNG/CNG.... talk about stupid....

[James Regan + 1,776]

Welcome to South America, they better get it together quickly or it will remain exactly what it is "fossil" fuel. Brasil has finally realised this and is looking promising for the next two years. Best wait for the Brits to come down an exploit the resources in the Falkland Islands, that will be fun.....

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

22 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Got money in Argentina, and I at the start figured it was 50-50 I would make any money, or get any money out.  Why Argentina is such a basket case.  Socialism, decides to price fix and screw over everyone.  Mostly their own citizens who now import their fuel instead of make it.  If I lose my money it more than likely means USA refinery exports will be making money.

PS: Does anyone realize how insane Australia is?  They import the VAST majority of their vehicular fuel...  Who knew that when you shut down your refineries your "fuel stocks" drop to less than a month of supply......  Anyone have experience in the formations in Oz?  They have NG... yet are not converting their vehicles to LNG/CNG.... talk about stupid....

Had investments in O&G in Argentina a long time ago when things were a little better politically, had a very good financial exit to a major.

Never went back for more because of the socialistic / left wing rhetoric and corruption.

Very good potential if they can get their politics and policies right.

Australia is another story with the push by leftists to deter any economic growth and energy and resource development.

There is always a push by the enviro whackos to shut down hydro fracturing and drilling in Australia and any new mining/oil gas e&p.

Several older and big refineries have been shut down in Australia because the majors did not want to invest hundreds of millions of $$$ to upgrade and still have to fight an uphill battle against the enviro whackos to get permits for cleaner and better refineries and cleaner and better fuels. Much easier to just import the fuels from China, Singapore, Japan, the US , Mid East., India...

I have been working on a project to build a new refinery in Australia for a few years , that is going to be producing ultra clean fuels and bio fuels from agri waste with low low environmental impact from the refinery operations. 100,000bpsd-150,000bpsd throughput. Have had very positive support from local POLS.

Bulk of their NG is under contract for export to China , Japan, India and elsewhere.

But they have enough for both. They can also go GTL for liquid fuels.

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

Well, only reason I invested is because NO ONE has invested in Argentina in ~a decade or so(duh why would they when Argentina steals everything on a whim...) and Argentina is importing more and more so I give it even shot to get my money out and make a pretty penny if Argentina can stay stable(I know right?) for the next ~5 years. 

 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Private sector essential in Latin America energy, US official says

The private sector will need to remain an essential participant as countries across Latin America try to develop their oil and gas resources, a US Government official foretold.

 

 

Oct 2nd, 2019

The private sector will need to remain an essential participant as countries across Latin America try to develop their oil and gas resources, a US Government official foretold.

“The need to invest in energy infrastructure across the region is substantial,” said Kurt D. Donnelly, a deputy US secretary of State who heads the department’s Bureau of Energy Resources (BER). More publicly traded companies will need to be involved, he said during an Oct. 2 discussion at the Inter-American Dialogue’s 2019 Latin America Energy Conference.

The bureau provides a lot of technical assistance to Latin American governments, Donnelly said. “These countries recognize that US oil and gas investments are essential. Our role is to help their governments get their policies right, so the investment climate is more conducive to attracting those investments,” he said.

Individual countries’ oil and gas outlooks range from badly deteriorating in Venezuela to more promising in Brazil and Colombia, other experts noted.

Venezuela’s oil collapse was well under way before the US announced new sanctions earlier this year, said Risa Grais-Targow, Latin America director for New York-based Eurasia Group. “Its biggest challenge has been the loss of the US market,” she noted.

Rosneft is helping

National oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) has been able to find substitutes in Asia, particularly India and China, but its roles there are very limited, and it can’t set terms, Grais-Targow said. “As PDVSA has tried to step in, [Russian oil company] Rosneft has stepped in. It’s substantially off-loading three quarters of Venezuela’s oil and taking it elsewhere,” she said.

Grais-Targow said that the latest figures show Venezuela producing about 650,000 b/d in September, which could drop as low as 500,000 b/d soon. “We’re seeing a level where a lot of this isn’t generating revenue for the government,” she said, adding that many creditors would like to get their hands on Citgo Petroleum Corp., which PDVSA owns. “A new Venezuelan government would need to work out new payment terms with Citgo’s bondholders,” Grais-Targow said.

RoseAnne Franco, who formerly headed oil and gas risk analysis at British firm Verisk Maplecroft, described a different situation in Brazil, where she said a tender scheduled for November could attract strong interest because it involves a discovered resource where there is not much risk. “This tender stands out because of its shear volume and size,” she said. “Companies in the area are expected to try and widen their exposures.”

Two more tenders in the next few months could test companies’ flexibility, Franco said. “The government seems to recognize there’s an energy transition on the horizon and it needs to move quickly,” she said. “There’s a lot of associated gas in these fields. At the moment, about 124 million cu m/day is involved. This could nearly double in the next decade.”

Multiple opportunities

Franco said, “There’s a smorgasbord of opportunities. The Bolsonaro government seems to recognize that all options need to be on the table, and [national oil company Petroleos Brasileiro SA] won’t be able to pursue every opportunity,” Franco said.

In Colombia, national oil company Ecopetrol SA emerged from a period of depressed prices worldwide that began in 2014 with its production down by nearly half but costs apparently improved, suggested its former president, Juan Carlos Echeverry, a founding partner of the Econcept strategic planning group.

“Expanding exploration has been Ecopetrol’s biggest challenge,” he told his Inter-American Dialogue audience. “Its international operations have grown, including a sizeable investment in the Permian basin in the US. Ecopetrol could become more of a Pan-American company with its investments elsewhere. Replacing declining domestic production is still a challenge. Economic questions need to be resolved, as well as whether hydraulic fracturing will be allowed to produce new deposits.”

Echeverry said Colombia continues to face issues surrounding access to resources which could help improve its overall economy. “We have to be more competitive than other countries,” he said. “We also need to recognize that in some case, agriculture has more economic influence than energy. Striking a balance that includes taking care of the environment is essential.”