World Economy will get mini partial trade aggreement in the coming week.

[Jabbar + 465]

Both U.S, and China are positioning making announcements.  

Despite the best efforts of U.S. Democratic Party to thwart any success for Trump he might have the upper hand. Maybe.

China says industrial policy off table.  In the meantime supply chain and mfg are moving capacity outside of China.  Tariffs on China far more damaging to China than any effect to U,S.

Trump has several aces in the hole. (1) Federal Pension funds prohibited from Chinese Investments.  (2) More Tariffs,  (3) Restrict more Technology Companies i.e. 5G, AI ,  (4) Just decouple from Chinese economy.    Wallstreet Bankers will be pissed , but they don't vote for Trump. 

Farmers prices are only slightly below pre tariff  trade wars.  Overblown .

So don't expect big deal.

But will get mini deal.

Two groups of U.S. Tariffs on China set to increase.  First group next week Oct 15th.  The second in Dec.

I believe that exchange for not increasing these tariffs China will commit to firm purchase of BOTH OIL/NGL and Agriculture along with schedule to take further steps.  

INCREASING CHINESE PURCHASES OF U.S. OIL MEANS DECREASING PURCHASES OF OPEC OIL AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS

Initial announcement could increase oil prices , then drop after reality sinks in. 

THE AGAIN MAYBE NOT. 

 

Edited October 8, 2019 by Jabbar

[Boat + 1,323]

2 hours ago, Jabbar said:

Both U.S, and China are positioning making announcements.  

Despite the best efforts of U.S. Democratic Party to thwart any success for Trump he might have the upper hand. Maybe.

China says industrial policy off table.  In the meantime supply chain and mfg are moving capacity outside of China.  Tariffs on China far more damaging to China than any effect to U,S.

Trump has several aces in the hole. (1) Federal Pension funds prohibited from Chinese Investments.  (2) More Tariffs,  (3) Restrict more Technology Companies i.e. 5G, AI ,  (4) Just decouple from Chinese economy.    Wallstreet Bankers will be pissed , but they don't vote for Trump. 

Farmers prices are only slightly below pre tariff  trade wars.  Overblown .

So don't expect big deal.

But will get mini deal.

Two groups of U.S. Tariffs on China set to increase.  First group next week Oct 15th.  The second in Dec.

I believe that exchange for not increasing these tariffs China will commit to firm purchase of BOTH OIL/NGL and Agriculture along with schedule to take further steps.  

INCREASING CHINESE PURCHASES OF U.S. OIL MEANS DECREASING PURCHASES OF OPEC OIL AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS

Initial announcement could increase oil prices , then drop after reality sinks in. 

THE AGAIN MAYBE NOT. 

 

The US imports around 10 mbpd of oil and petroleum products. The US needs and uses close to net around 1 mbpd of that 10 mbpd for consumption. 
Considering 30% of refinery capacity is foreign owned who would China really be buying oil from in the US?

Can you really wrap your head around these simple numbers? So how many older citizens should die early, how many premature babies affected to support around 9 mbpd in overcapacity needed for US consumption.

Is oil taxed at least on that 9 mbpd for healthcare costs to pay for the increased rates of respiratory disease? Let me catch my breath.