sanctions waivers on China-bound oil have dropped prices for VLCC charters by 45%

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

The Trump administration imposed sanctions in late September on Cosco affiliates for allegedly transporting oil from Iran, a move that caused huge increases in shipping costs for oil and liquefied natural gas as traders that had booked Cosco tankers immediately dropped their charters and rushed to find alternate tonnage.

The cost of booking a VLCC sailing out of the U.S. Gulf Coast has plunged 45% since Oct. 14, when freight reached a peak of $21M for ships discharging in China, according to S&P Global Platts.      https://seekingalpha.com/news/3509260-oil-traders-told-wind-deals-cosco-dec-20?dr=1#email_link

So, reading between the lines, there are two aspects to the sudden US sanctioning of COSCO shipping, the big Chinese government-owned tanker company.  First, the Feds are placing some slack in the sanction, allowing charters to continue until December.  Second, it would appear that quite a bit of US oil out of the US Gulf is still making its way to China.  I suspect the reason for this has escaped most viewers (and reasons here).  The Chinese tariffs only apply to Private Chinese importers.  Government entities are exempt for Government tariffs.  SO it is business as usual for the Govt entities and their US suppliers, across the board.

The situation with soybeans is more complex.  Although the govt entities could continue to buy US beans without tariffs, they have chosen not to in order to punish US States that are "deep red" and Trump supporters, and also because there are alternate suppliers such as Brasil  (although Brasil has an internal transport problem to get the beans to the docks there).  Apparently the Chinese are not quite as picky when it comes to buying US oil, however!  And what this means is that demand for US crude will continue, thus supporting WTI pricing, at least for now. 

[DanilKa + 443]

apparently a lot of oil heading to China

https://shippingwatch.com/carriers/Tanker/article11706052.ece

Interesting run in tanker rates. It was predicted by @Kuppy on Twitter and Market Huddle Podcast. .