California 50% Electric Truck Mandate. Anyone Want to Buy Aramco Shares at 2 Trillion Valuation ? Not me.

[Jabbar + 465]

You ain't seen nothing yet !

California just the tip of the iceburg.  Most want stricter mandate then 50% by 2030. I think 50% by 2030 with no mandate.

Europe already announced mandates.

U.S. Local, City, state and Federal MANDATES coming. Start with bus, mail trucks, government vehicles, delivery vans, etc.

Recent car industry survey showed over 230 new EV models by 2023.

Next generation of smaller, increased capacity and less expensive vehicle batteries coming. 

Yes their is aviation fuel, petrochemical, emerging markets growth.  But can't makeup for the industrialized nations EV transition.  

Today's EV's primitive to what is to come. Today take out combustion engine and put in electric , have modified drivetrain. 

Oil pundits bemoan the lack of replacement reserves. Not a factor.  Some of present know  reserves will never see the light of day.

U.S. and Argentina light shale oil and condensate the preferred spec for petrochemical demand. 

Rivian will change the electric vehicle market place with its architecture. Amazon has placed order for 100,000 EV delivery trucks.  https://rivian.com/technology 

EV price higher than CE for now.  With Rivian "skateboard platform" with 4 independent electric motors (200 HP each) will be less expensive upon ramp of mass production and ensuing competition.

Not coming tomorrow .  But sooner than you think.

https://news.bloombergenvironment.com/environment-and-energy/california-plans-nations-first-electric-truck-mandates

Do you want to buy shares of Aramco IPO ? By the way the Aramco 75 Billion/year dividend is only guaranteed for 5 years.  After that period Aramco could lower dividend and increase tax and royalty payments if they want (or if they need to ?) Survival comes before foriegn shareholders. 

Edited October 26, 2019 by Jabbar

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

6 hours ago, Jabbar said:

You ain't seen nothing yet !

California just the tip of the iceburg.  Most want stricter mandate then 50% by 2030. I think 50% by 2030 with no mandate.

Europe already announced mandates.

U.S. Local, City, state and Federal MANDATES coming. Start with bus, mail trucks, government vehicles, delivery vans, etc.

Recent car industry survey showed over 230 new EV models by 2023.

Next generation of smaller, increased capacity and less expensive vehicle batteries coming. 

Yes their is aviation fuel, petrochemical, emerging markets growth.  But can't makeup for the industrialized nations EV transition.  

Today's EV's primitive to what is to come. Today take out combustion engine and put in electric , have modified drivetrain. 

Oil pundits bemoan the lack of replacement reserves. Not a factor.  Some of present know  reserves will never see the light of day.

U.S. and Argentina light shale oil and condensate the preferred spec for petrochemical demand. 

Rivian will change the electric vehicle market place with its architecture. Amazon has placed order for 100,000 EV delivery trucks.  https://rivian.com/technology 

EV price higher than CE for now.  With Rivian "skateboard platform" with 4 independent electric motors (200 HP each) will be less expensive upon ramp of mass production and ensuing competition.

Not coming tomorrow .  But sooner than you think.

https://news.bloombergenvironment.com/environment-and-energy/california-plans-nations-first-electric-truck-mandates

Do you want to buy shares of Aramco IPO ? By the way the Aramco 75 Billion/year dividend is only guaranteed for 5 years.  After that period Aramco could lower dividend and increase tax and royalty payments if they want (or if they need to ?) Survival comes before foriegn shareholders. 

This. 

The EV revolution will happen much more quickly than predicted because there's a tsunami of new technology in development.  I'm not talking about academia, which is notorious for hawking useless crap.  I mean private industry is throwing vast capital resources at competent engineering teams to design real products that they expect to turn a profit.  This is happening as we speak. 

As you mentioned, today's EVs are primitive first attempts.  In the next 5-10 years, we'll see remarkable performance improvements along with cost reductions.  As that happens, we'll see EVs consume one market after another until ICEs are relegated to niche applications and range extenders.  The writing is on the wall. 

Meanwhile, we're learning how to recycle plastics, the world economy is struggling to maintain growth, Middle Eastern instability could spike oil prices, and a global recession could happen at any moment.  Things aren't looking good for oil demand.