Solar Cells at 7.5 Cents Per Watt

[Meredith Poor + 894]

There is some evidence of a price collapse in the last couple of weeks from Chinese manufacturers. Most 6"x6" cells have been running from 40 to 50 cents, this one is offered at 36 cents. These prices are are only offered on utility scale production runs, which may run from 10Mw to 1Gw.

As usual, this may not be a trustworthy quote. There are several vendors quoting prices in the area of 10 cents per watt for cells.

Anything that identifies the vendor has been blanked out, including payment clearing houses and model numbers.

[markslawson + 1,057]

If you want to buy a load of cheap, and potentially dodgy, Chinese PV panels to set up a commercial-scale PV generator well that's nice, I guess. You still need a place to set them up plus frames to mount them on and other equipment such as a commercial-scale inverter and, oh yes, an agreement with a retailer to take the power when it becomes available during the day. Getting a Price Purchasing Agreement (PPA) would be the hardest part of the deal but you have to have one if you want any bank finance to, say, buy the land. Then there is the no small matter of connecting the facility to the grid. Where are the nearest powerlines? The grid operator will also want to be told about a potentially major new supply of power and may impose various restrictions. Basically don't hold your breath waiting for a surge in new PV generators because the panels have become cheaper. They are the least of the problems in such generators. 

[Boat + 1,323]

Who knows what the final price is but major corporations are doing much of the buying. With their 10’s of billions one would assume they get good quality at a good price because of their volume and future purchasing power. 
Their biggest problem is deciding how fast to grow their renewable as tech keeps dropping the price on 25-30 year investments. A good investment may be a great investment in 5 years.

Much hand wringing and negative thought has been written about the pace of renewable growth. I am on the side of growth has been steady and reasoned. The future is bright but you don’t want to outrun tech with investment. 
 

This conundrum is why I think our candidates for prez are wrong on a massive spend campaign. 30-40 billion a year fine but the real promise of renewables is still a couple decades away.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 10/28/2019 at 11:39 PM, markslawson said:

If you want to buy a load of cheap, and potentially dodgy, Chinese PV panels to set up a commercial-scale PV generator well that's nice, I guess. You still need a place to set them up plus frames to mount them on and other equipment such as a commercial-scale inverter and, oh yes, an agreement with a retailer to take the power when it becomes available during the day. Getting a Price Purchasing Agreement (PPA) would be the hardest part of the deal but you have to have one if you want any bank finance to, say, buy the land. Then there is the no small matter of connecting the facility to the grid. Where are the nearest powerlines? The grid operator will also want to be told about a potentially major new supply of power and may impose various restrictions. Basically don't hold your breath waiting for a surge in new PV generators because the panels have become cheaper. They are the least of the problems in such generators. 

The World of problems by Mark Lawson😀

Forget large operators - the price of panels now offer the consumer the opportunity to shake off the yoke of the energy industry.

Panels are so cheap now that individuals can buy up the panels and a grid tie inverter and stick these on a garage roof / other external structure. The cost is around 1K DIY with a immersion diverter. Competent DIYer can do this. No need to worry about subsidies or feed in tariffs. 

For example (figures in sterling - I have no pound key on my Aussie laptop)

4 x  250-300W panels 450

I X Mastervolt Grid Tie inverter (1KW) 200

1x immersion diverter 200

Cabling / mounts  150-200

 

Just done this at my retired Aunties - less than 1K as we used builders stainless steel restraint strap to mount the panels. 

Provides most of her daytime electric from April to October. Any surplus gets converted into heat in her hot water cylinder.

Thats around 1000kwh reduction in her electricity / gas consumption (depending on how much gets diverted to the HW cylinder. 

Assume its all electric thats about a 17% gross tax free return on the investment (compared to the 1% in her bank account) 

Took me and my cousin about 4 hours to install. 

Greta approves

 

 

 

 

 

[specinho + 459]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

Provides most of her daytime electric from April to October. Any surplus gets converted into heat in her hot water cylinder.

[NickW + 2,714]

3 hours ago, specinho said:

Look closely - I said daytime needs🙂

[NickW + 2,714]

Based on calculations from this the output of the garage roof installation is as follows: 

https://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_tools/en/tools.html

These are the monthly outputs in KWH. SO even in Dec / Jan there is a useful production. 

January 38.7

February 55.1

March 101

April 129

May 134

June 133

July 137

August 118

September 100

October 70.5

November 42.1

December 34.6

[markslawson + 1,057]

11 hours ago, NickW said:

Forget large operators - the price of panels now offer the consumer the opportunity to shake off the yoke of the energy industry.

NickW - look, mate, where have you been? Its been cheap for householders to install solar panels in Australia since 2010 when the Rudd government and state governments introduced incentives, including favourable feed-in tariffs and the Renewable Energy Certificate system. Same in some US states and, I think, Germany. There are now so many panels in parts of the Australian grids that they cause real problems for those running the grids, as the operators can't turn off or block that supply when it threatens to overload the grid. This has been particularly marked in WA. Much of the favourable treatment for household PVs has since been unwound, but you'll find that anyone who was going to do this has already done it, and very few have disconnected themselves from the central grid. This is because delivering reliable energy at the same voltage and frequency 24/7 is the energy industry's specialty. For an individual or even a group of individuals to duplicate that is very, very expensive and never mind the cost of the panels. There are plenty of microgrids in Australia - Bass Strait, Cooper Pedy and areas all up the WA coast. These use far more renewable energy than the major grids and are always, far, far more expensive to build and operate. No cheap solution here.

[NickW + 2,714]

2 minutes ago, markslawson said:

NickW - look, mate, where have you been? Its been cheap for householders to install solar panels in Australia since 2010 when the Rudd government and state governments introduced incentives, including favourable feed-in tariffs and the Renewable Energy Certificate system. Same in some US states and, I think, Germany. There are now so many panels in parts of the Australian grids that they cause real problems for those running the grids, as the operators can't turn off or block that supply when it threatens to overload the grid. This has been particularly marked in WA. Much of the favourable treatment for household PVs has since been unwound, but you'll find that anyone who was going to do this has already done it, and very few have disconnected themselves from the central grid. This is because delivering reliable energy at the same voltage and frequency 24/7 is the energy industry's specialty. For an individual or even a group of individuals to duplicate that is very, very expensive and never mind the cost of the panels. There are plenty of microgrids in Australia - Bass Strait, Cooper Pedy and areas all up the WA coast. These use far more renewable energy than the major grids and are always, far, far more expensive to build and operate. No cheap solution here.

The point I was making is that without any incentives of FIT's its now commerically viable to fit small - medium size systems in UK homes. 

Furthermore as there is no FIT any export is a freebie to the grid so it makes sense to use that electricity in the home - water heating is a practical example. You can also reorientate usage to day time. Our freezer and refrigerator are on time switches to switch some night time load to day time. Also a variety of rechargable devices only charge during peak sunshine hours. 

[NickW + 2,714]

13 hours ago, markslawson said:

NickW - look, mate, where have you been? Its been cheap for householders to install solar panels in Australia since 2010 when the Rudd government and state governments introduced incentives, including favourable feed-in tariffs and the Renewable Energy Certificate system. Same in some US states and, I think, Germany. There are now so many panels in parts of the Australian grids that they cause real problems for those running the grids, as the operators can't turn off or block that supply when it threatens to overload the grid. This has been particularly marked in WA. Much of the favourable treatment for household PVs has since been unwound, but you'll find that anyone who was going to do this has already done it, and very few have disconnected themselves from the central grid. This is because delivering reliable energy at the same voltage and frequency 24/7 is the energy industry's specialty. For an individual or even a group of individuals to duplicate that is very, very expensive and never mind the cost of the panels. There are plenty of microgrids in Australia - Bass Strait, Cooper Pedy and areas all up the WA coast. These use far more renewable energy than the major grids and are always, far, far more expensive to build and operate. No cheap solution here.

WA would have been better off promoting air source heat pumps for water heating instead of the usual crappy antiquated gas heaters. The new unit installed by my landlord in Perth in 2015 had a frickin pilot light.........

The ASHP can be put on a time switch so its operation coincides with peak solar hours which first means they are using the solar electric directly but also operating at highest efficiency as the air is warm. this significantly reduces the amount of electricity dumped on the grid in peak solar hours. 

One of my more enlightened friends put one of these in after having a 4KW solar system installed. Massive reduction in the gas bill and a moderate reduction in electricity bill. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 10/30/2019 at 6:23 AM, NickW said:

The World of problems by Mark Lawson😀

Forget large operators - the price of panels now offer the consumer the opportunity to shake off the yoke of the energy industry.

Panels are so cheap now that individuals can buy up the panels and a grid tie inverter and stick these on a garage roof / other external structure. The cost is around 1K DIY with a immersion diverter. Competent DIYer can do this. No need to worry about subsidies or feed in tariffs. 

For example (figures in sterling - I have no pound key on my Aussie laptop)

4 x  250-300W panels 450

I X Mastervolt Grid Tie inverter (1KW) 200

1x immersion diverter 200

Cabling / mounts  150-200

 

Just done this at my retired Aunties - less than 1K as we used builders stainless steel restraint strap to mount the panels. 

Provides most of her daytime electric from April to October. Any surplus gets converted into heat in her hot water cylinder.

Thats around 1000kwh reduction in her electricity / gas consumption (depending on how much gets diverted to the HW cylinder. 

Assume its all electric thats about a 17% gross tax free return on the investment (compared to the 1% in her bank account) 

Took me and my cousin about 4 hours to install. 

Greta approves

 

 

 

 

 

So, you do not think battery backup is economical after the hot water use is figured in? I hadn't heard of that option, just solar water heaters from direct sunlight. Of course England is different from Arizona or any warm climate. 

[markslawson + 1,057]

On 10/31/2019 at 10:23 AM, NickW said:

The point I was making is that without any incentives of FIT's its now commerically viable to fit small - medium size systems in UK homes.

Okay, without doing the maths myself I won't disagree. Those with the technical nouse to do it or who can find someone will to do the work, fine. But there is a real risk the grid can be destabilised by this stuff. Rooftop solar should never really have been allowed. The heat pump things is a possibility for WA. It might make more sense than PVs. But none of this adds up to a revolution. No-one's going to start disconnecting from the grid.  Anyway, leave it with you.

[NickW + 2,714]

9 hours ago, markslawson said:

Okay, without doing the maths myself I won't disagree. Those with the technical nouse to do it or who can find someone will to do the work, fine. But there is a real risk the grid can be destabilised by this stuff. Rooftop solar should never really have been allowed. The heat pump things is a possibility for WA. It might make more sense than PVs. But none of this adds up to a revolution. No-one's going to start disconnecting from the grid.  Anyway, leave it with you.

I never suggested they would but if people can economically get 2-3000 kwh from solar and use it locally thats 2-3000kwh of electric (or gas if using the electric to replace gas) demand not being placed on the utility. 

[NickW + 2,714]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So, you do not think battery backup is economical after the hot water use is figured in? I hadn't heard of that option, just solar water heaters from direct sunlight. Of course England is different from Arizona or any warm climate. 

In the UK thermal solar water heaters when competing against gas are only economical if DIY installed. Against more expensive fuels - oil, LPG, electricity, solid fuel they are more competitive.  Coincidentally I have picked up 2 24 58mm tube systems which I shall install in the spring as I am doing a range of plumbing works including replacement of the cylinder. As the market has plummeted with solar thermal (everyone goes for PV) I picked up the panels and controller for less than half what they were selling for a couple of years ago. 

--------------

If someone over sizes a PV system before going down the battery route I would suggest the following:

Try to reorientate demand to peak solar hours:

Washing machines

Dishwasher

Freezers and refrigerators can be put on timeswitches to shift some demand from early hours of the morning to late morning

Other rechargable devices

The Immersion divert system commonly used in the UK simply monitors whether the PV supply exceeds demand and sends the surplus to a HW cylinder immersion. It also has a secondary outlet that you could hook up to something like an oil filled radiator although of very limited use at peak PV times. 

Then size your battery - they are pricey. That may change when alot of second life EV batteries enter the stationary market. 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

If I were young again I would seriously consider an off the grid approach with solar. Most young people move a lot so that requires dependable resale benefit to pay for the investment though. I am wondering how resale value will increase as time goes on and reliability is more accepted, and esthetics are improved. 

I like the idea of also using thermal solar for hot water. I don't see it used much by swimming pool owners yet.