BABA Next, Probably

[Zhong Lu + 845]

1.  6 month chart looks like it's setting up to break 180.  Higher lows.  

2.  It's likely that Trump will sign a trade de-escalation for reelection chances.  If that happens, that's the catalyst to push it higher.

3.  Downside is limited. BABA's financials are rock solid and every timeit dips and hits 160 in the past year it gets bought up like crazy.  

4.  It keeps me away from trading instruments that are analogous to crystal meth/ crack cocaine like UGAZ or DGAZ or FNMA.  A lot of great highs, but kinda dangerous to do repeatedly.  

Edited November 6, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

3/4's position in BABA. I'll buy another 1/3 or 1/2 if it dips or if some deal is signed (a little bit of margin never hurt anyone).  

Edited November 6, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Zhong,

On several occasions you mention something in the vein of, ‘Trump will do X to increase his chances of re-election’.

From what I can see/hear, and considering the caliber of candidates the Democrats are putting forward, I do not see where Trump needs to change anything as his re-election looks fairly solid. Changing tack at this point would appear weak and damage his campaign...in my opinion. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

But not according to the polls.  Based on the numbers it's pretty obvious this election is going to be coin toss.  

And even if the trade negotiations goes south, BABA has a floor @ 160.  

Edited November 7, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I was speaking to a guy back in the States last Monday and he told me the poll numbers for Biden, Warren and Trump...to be honest I was shocked as they did not come close to what I am hearing ‘on the street’.

I am an expat in Malaysia and speak to a wide cross-section of expats here, from all over the world. I also keep in touch with people in the States and Canada.

NOBODY whom I have spoken to think Biden or Warren have a ghost of a chance against Trump. 
 

It appears to me that once again we are in the mainstream media polling fiasco, similar to the last election.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

It depends on where you live.  In our area almost no one says positive things about Trump.  Consequently I've decided personal anecdotes are meaningless (from both sides).  I look at numbers to make my predictions.  

The media's not wrong.  Even if Trump wins the election, I doubt he'll win the popular vote.  I understand that it's the electoral college that matters, but until Trump recognizes that at least 50% of the voters in the country don't like his zero sum behavior, I don't think he's going to get much of anything done.  The perception in a lot of areas of the country is that Trump cares only for himself and his supporters- that he's the president of only half the country.  To them he's not an American president.  Instead, he's a Republican president who puts his own interests and the party's interests over the nation as a whole.  And he's done absolutely nothing to change that perception.

It's a democracy.  If half the population hates your guts, and you reinforce that perception by acting like a bully, you're going to have trouble accomplishing much.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[remake it + 288]

7 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

It depends on where you live.  In our area almost no one says positive things about Trump.  Consequently I've decided personal anecdotes are meaningless (from both sides).  I look at numbers to make my predictions.  

Yes, a lot of people do that, except at this site.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

I'm aware of that site. A friend of mine loves that shi-.  Bets on elections, too. 

Edited November 7, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Saw it hit wall @ 188.  Late afternoon selling (bad sign).  Sold @ 187.  Currently trading @ 186

Wondering when to buy back.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Fear.  Very very fearful.  Of what? Dunno.  Perhaps the fear that everything has already been priced in.  Out of everything except a piddling amount of DGAZ.  Very piddling.  The market to me is like Skylar to Lydia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k47oYOTiH4o

Edited November 8, 2019 by Zhong Lu