Mid October post "bias upside" . Cashed in on nice return. Bit cautious now.

[Jabbar + 465]

Built position mid October.  Posted opinion "bias to upside next 60 days" Oct 18.  I still believe have some to go on upside but few developments signal caution so took some nice profits.

Upside from (1) Aramco IPO . Goldman and Saudis would get Price up one way or another to upper 60s.  (2) China trade deal. Thought good chance of phase one  trade deal, but now concerned.  China pulling bait and switch.  China playing up phase one of trade deal right up to the signing this month THEN NOW DEMANDING U.S. ROLL BACK ALMOST ALL OF THE TARIFFS.

If not for the  Democratic Party impeachment scam Trump would have had a good deal last Spring.  China knows this and will hold out.  Will Trump cave ?  If he loses the election because Midwest farmers China still wins. 

We will know the answer soon. 

So on the sidelines till December.

  

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Jabbar

[Rob Kramer + 696]

My question was un answered last post so I'll re post it with this weeks update . Net petroleum products up 3 million barrels over the week. net imports 1.4 million barrels/d (9.8million barrels over the week). Note last period at net exports of 600k/d and 30k/d period before that. Refining could go up 2 million barrels/d but refiners want fuel prices up and have maintenance.  How does this info effect prices? Or what's the cause of net export to import change low world demand or low refining? Trade war aka no Chinese buying? Thanks to anyone with some light on this question.