When Can Electric Cars Compete on Cost with ICE

[Rob Kramer + 696]

If you live in an apartment where do you charge? Is every apartment supposed to put in charge stations incase every car goes EV ? 

Personally I find the "cost competitive " thing doesn't fit. There are only so many people who buy what they can afford the rest buy what they like and for many that's more than what they can afford. Also wait till road tax is in the ownership not on fuel being that of our 1.10c per liter is 49.4 c tax so cost competitive at 61c/L? 

What about service some people over maintain other under. And some ride brakes and plow massive bumps others wont drive in bad areas or will thoughtfully go around. To many variables.  

EV is way more efficient for movement about 60% (30% vs 90% energy to movement) more or 3x however you think of the number. But that doesn't make it more practical or what people are used to or as fun or cool. * enter sound clip to turbo blow off valve*  I think until its pushed hard in 2025 it'll have a certain speed of sales increase. 

[remake it + 288]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

When you pay twice as much as you would on a comparable ICE vehicle you also pay twice as much on interest payments, insurance, etc. You also lose money that you could have invested rather than putting into your vehicle. If you keep it fifteen to twenty years you may come out even, depending on how much you drive. If you drive a lot you will have to replace the battery which is a major part of the car price. 

Given that Teslas are in the luxury category of the market they actually are a far better value proposition for what you call comparable ICE vehicles, while depending on where in the world you own the vehicle, annual savings on fuel and servicing after favorable taxation policies give can them an edge where ownership extends towards 10 years, and that becomes a significant edge where a lot more travel than "average" annual distances are involved.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

50 minutes ago, remake it said:

Given that Teslas are in the luxury category of the market they actually are a far better value proposition for what you call comparable ICE vehicles, while depending on where in the world you own the vehicle, annual savings on fuel and servicing after favorable taxation policies give can them an edge where ownership extends towards 10 years, and that becomes a significant edge where a lot more travel than "average" annual distances are involved.

If you can afford the capital outlay for a luxury car AND if they last 10 years (they haven’t yet...).

[remake it + 288]

15 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If you can afford the capital outlay for a luxury car AND if they last 10 years (they haven’t yet...).

Roadsters were produced in 2008 and are still on the road so you should have checked that call, but the real proof of the pudding is Tesloop's cars which suggest the average driver will have no problem ticking over a few 100000 miles in their newer model Teslas and never have to worry about a battery changeover... but they may well prefer a new car well before then.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, remake it said:

Roadsters were produced in 2008 and are still on the road so you should have checked that call, but the real proof of the pudding is Tesloop's cars which suggest the average driver will have no problem ticking over a few 100000 miles in their newer model Teslas and never have to worry about a battery changeover... but they may well prefer a new car well before then.

Good lord you’re stupid!

[NickW + 2,714]

This chart gives a comparison of battery degradation comparing 24kwh to 30kwh batteries. On the 30kwh they removed the charge to 80% option which was big mistake. If you really want to extend the battery life minimise deep cycling below 20% or charging above 80%.

These charts are plots from a large sample group. 

 

https://pushevs.com/2018/03/20/nissan-leaf-battery-degradation-data-24-vs-30-kwh-batteries/

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by NickW
typo

[NickW + 2,714]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If you can afford the capital outlay for a luxury car AND if they last 10 years (they haven’t yet...).

As I and others have said numerous times, TESLA is competing in the same price banding as Beamers, Merc, and higher end Audis. The socio economic groups that buy these cars are affluent. I live NE of London - there are loads of TESLAS on the road because there are many people who work in the London financial centre and have money. 

Further down the food chain you need to look at what Ford, GM, NIssan, Renault are doing to get a better perspective on what the mainstream market is doing. 

The penetration of Hybrids is probably a good model to consider as to where the future lies for EV's. 10 years ago Hybrids were quite niche in the UK. Now they are extremely common and the second market means these are feeding down into lower pricing bands. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 11/10/2019 at 5:27 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

Do not under estimate the ‘fun factor’. People buy vehicles to address their transportation needs and cost, but they also look at how ‘cool’ the vehicle is and it’s performance.

Douglas you cant have ever been in an EV 

Generally the design (shape) is the same as an ICE vehicle (ie BMW 3 series, 5 series etc). The difference is you have instant power in an EV and not only that if you have a hybrid you actually have 2 power trains at the same time, so performance or "fun factor" as you say is exceptional.

Some EV's will do 0-62 MPH in 2 seconds!! now thats rapid!!

Edited November 11, 2019 by Rob Plant

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I don’t disagree, but this was not the point I was trying to make.

If the ‘fun factor’ is in fact there, and the cars are sexy....why aren’t people (actually Americans in the initial thread) snapping them up?

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Just now, Douglas Buckland said:

I don’t disagree, but this was not the point I was trying to make.

If the ‘fun factor’ is in fact there, and the cars are sexy....why aren’t people (actually Americans in the initial thread) snapping them up?

Well i agree that the cost to initially buy one is what is putting your average guy off.

However the costs are rapidly coming down, well in Europe anyway, I presume the same will follow in the US.

I think the culture towards vehicles in the US may well be quite different to that of Europe as you guys tend to go for station wagons or large pick up's and there arent many EV's in this category that I have seen. I may be wrong on that in fairness.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

In the UK EV's are like gold dust as company car drivers are taxed to oblivion with ICE vehicles, so lease companies cannot get EV's quick enough for company car drivers. you pay roughly 1/3 tax for a hybrid or zero tax if its all electric.(an Audi A5 3.0 litre diesel is about £12K per year)

So to answer your question if the same tax incentive is put in the US as it is in the UK  then EV's will very quickly become the car of choice.

https://www.audi.com/en/experience-audi/models-and-technology/concept-cars/audi-e-tron-gt-concept.html

I want one of these!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Plus, there is the ‘economy of scale’ between Europe and the US. Driving from Denver to Washington D.C. would be like driving from London to Moscow (no map abailable so could be mistaken here). Between Denver and Eastern Kansas there is essentially nothing! Not something most people would consider doing in a ‘new technology’ though they are quite comfortable doing it in an ICE vehicle with that infrastructure in place.

Going East from London you would not hit this type of desolate, rural area for a good ways.

This issue is often missed when comparing rail transport between cities in the US and those in Europe.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

In the UK EV's are like gold dust as company car drivers are taxed to oblivion with ICE vehicles, so lease companies cannot get EV's quick enough for company car drivers. you pay roughly 1/3 tax for a hybrid or zero tax if its all electric.(an Audi A5 3.0 litre diesel is about £12K per year)

So to answer your question if the same tax incentive is put in the US as it is in the UK  then EV's will very quickly become the car of choice.

https://www.audi.com/en/experience-audi/models-and-technology/concept-cars/audi-e-tron-gt-concept.html

I want one of these!

But a tax incentive (penalty) is not the same as building something people WANT to buy....the government is essentially forcing you to buy EV’s.

If these EV’s were so cool and fun, you would not require a tax incentive to get people to buy them!

So there must be an underlying issue that makes the government feel it is necessary to offer a tax incentive instead of letting EV’s survive simply on their appeal to the consumer.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Yeah that's a good point.

However you can still happily use a self charging hybrid.

Makes a big difference on fuel economy

Did you like the new Audi EV thats coming out next year?

Amazing performance and sexy as hell

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 minute ago, Douglas Buckland said:

But a tax incentive (penalty) is not the same as building something people WANT to buy....the government is essentially forcing you to buy EV’s.

If these EV’s were so cool and fun, you would not require a tax incentive to get people to buy them!

So there must be an underlying issue that makes the government feel it is necessary to offer a tax incentive instead of letting EV’s survive simply on their appeal to the consumer.

I was answering the point about why they apparently aren't as popular in the US as the UK and thought this was a valid reason.

However they are still popular with non company car drivers because they look no different to cool looking cars but have far superior performance, the only thing that puts people off is the initial price tag, but that's dropping like a stone with increased competition, technological advances and also mass production.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Okay, you got me here....😂

Although I am a dyed-in-the-wool, unrepentant petrolhead who grew up hotrodding and who only has a motorcycle....this Audi is sexy!

I am already an Audi fan. I bought my wife a new (at the time) A4 with the 1.8 litre turbo motor and the 8 speed Tiptronic transmission (S-line). I only drive it once a year on Chinese New Year when we go visit her family....it is an amazing vehicle! The power they get out of 1.8 litres toed to a silky smooth 8 speed is amazing.

Even a old gearhead like myself would want to test drive this Audi!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Sound....don’t forget sound! Who wants a silent car or bike? You want to put Akropovic and Vance & Hines out of business?😂

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Yeah you need sound!

Actually there have been a few pedestrians injured as they haven't heard the car approaching.

Many EV's now have fake sound when they accelerate etc so this doesn't happen.

Health and safety!!

I sound like an advert for EV's 🤣, I did prefer my 3.0 litre Audi A5 to my BMW hybrid

My dad used to have an MG convertible, I loved that car but he sold it without telling me the ba*tard  🤣

I'm afraid EV's are coming Douglas but for God's sake keep that bike of yours!!

[NickW + 2,714]

38 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Plus, there is the ‘economy of scale’ between Europe and the US. Driving from Denver to Washington D.C. would be like driving from London to Moscow (no map abailable so could be mistaken here). Between Denver and Eastern Kansas there is essentially nothing! Not something most people would consider doing in a ‘new technology’ though they are quite comfortable doing it in an ICE vehicle with that infrastructure in place.

Going East from London you would not hit this type of desolate, rural area for a good ways.

This issue is often missed when comparing rail transport between cities in the US and those in Europe.

How many Americans actually do a journey like that - ever? 

I lived in perth (OZ) for 5 years and the furthest we ever went by road was Albany (500km) and Augusta (320km).

If journeys like that are once/ twice in a life time surely better to hire a car for that and own a vehcile that is more suited to everyday needs. Or as Rob pointed out the Hybrid or PHEV would suit those long distance journeys. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

12 minutes ago, NickW said:

How many Americans actually do a journey like that - ever? 

I lived in perth (OZ) for 5 years and the furthest we ever went by road was Albany (500km) and Augusta (320km).

If journeys like that are once/ twice in a life time surely better to hire a car for that and own a vehcile that is more suited to everyday needs. Or as Rob pointed out the Hybrid or PHEV would suit those long distance journeys. 

Let’s see, I drove from Denver to Baltimore and back three summers while I was in college. I also drove from Golden, Colorado to El Dorado, Arkansas for a summer job, then from there to Baltimore to visit the folks before going back to school in Golden. Drove to Houston and back to Denver for another summer job. The last summer job was a shorter run from Golden to Borger, Texas and back.

I also drove a 1950 Chevy pick up from Golden to the Marine base in San Diego to deliver it to a buddy.

I moved myself from Denver to Pensacola, Florida for work on the rigs. Every 28 days I’d have to drive from Pensacola, Florida to Fourchon, Louisiana to catch the chopper out to the rig and then back to Florida after my hitch.

These are simply the trips that come to mind at the moment. I was far from unique regarding my travels.

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Let’s see, I drove from Denver to Baltimore and back three summers while I was in college. I also drove from Golden, Colorado to El Dorado, Arkansas for a summer job, then from there to Baltimore to visit the folks before going back to school in Golden. Drove to Houston and back to Denver for another summer job. The last summer job was a shorter run from Golden to Borger, Texas and back.

I also drove a 1950 Chevy pick up from Golden to the Marine base in San Diego to deliver it to a buddy.

I moved myself from Denver to Pensacola, Florida for work on the rigs. Every 28 days I’d have to drive from Pensacola, Florida to Fourchon, Louisiana to catch the chopper out to the rig and then back to Florida after my hitch.

These are simply the trips that come to mind at the moment. I was far from unique regarding my travels.

 

I think distance is hard for us Europeans to fully appreciate unless you have lived in a large country like US or Canada

A long drive for us is 100 miles, Texas is bigger than the UK for God's sake!

I do think infrastructure is way behind technology with EV's and this is a genuine stumbling block for countries like USA, Canada, Russia, China etc.

Hopefully battery technology will help with the distance issue

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Yeah, Europeans generally do not realize the distances involved in the US. When I was younger and lived there it was not uncommon or considered an exceptionally long drive to drive 1000km (620 miles) to get where you needed to go.

[NickW + 2,714]

20 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Let’s see, I drove from Denver to Baltimore and back three summers while I was in college. I also drove from Golden, Colorado to El Dorado, Arkansas for a summer job, then from there to Baltimore to visit the folks before going back to school in Golden. Drove to Houston and back to Denver for another summer job. The last summer job was a shorter run from Golden to Borger, Texas and back.

I also drove a 1950 Chevy pick up from Golden to the Marine base in San Diego to deliver it to a buddy.

I moved myself from Denver to Pensacola, Florida for work on the rigs. Every 28 days I’d have to drive from Pensacola, Florida to Fourchon, Louisiana to catch the chopper out to the rig and then back to Florida after my hitch.

These are simply the trips that come to mind at the moment. I was far from unique regarding my travels.

 

Would a college student typically do that today?

Don't know about the pricing but in Europe or Oz I would fly. Cheaper, faster and more convenient. 

Anyway the half way house in the above scenario you describe is a vehicle with a PHEV set up. Battery for most day to day lower speed driving and an engine for longer distances & high speed travel. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

6 minutes ago, NickW said:

Would a college student typically do that today?

Don't know about the pricing but in Europe or Oz I would fly. Cheaper, faster and more convenient. 

Anyway the half way house in the above scenario you describe is a vehicle with a PHEV set up. Battery for most day to day lower speed driving and an engine for longer distances & high speed travel. 

If you are talking about the Boston-->NY-->DC area... no.  Anyone outside this area?  Yes.  Spring break half(exaggeration, but...) the nation drives to Florida, S. Texas, S. California, or Arizona.  Likewise, summer break, traveling throughout the west is family tradition and putting on 2000miles or more is not uncommon at all when driving out west where all the scenery is(fewer claustrophobic trees)  If you live in the western USA, a "short" trip to meet other people is ~200 miles rt(300km).  Normal is probably 400 miles rt. 

For instance I have rental property in Denver Colorado yet live outside of Seattle.  Drive time: 19 hours(not speeding) with tools/materials to flip the rental or ~6 hours via a flight + cost of renting a car and have to buy 2nd set of tools + expensive materials + time getting them.  Likewise since I live in Seattle, every weekend it is bumper to bumper traffic on Friday afternoon and returning on Sunday afternoon going over the mountains for good weather(20C-->30C instead of 10C and rain) and a tidy round trip for everyone of probably around 400miles or more(not dead of winter). 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

23 minutes ago, NickW said:

Would a college student typically do that today?

Don't know about the pricing but in Europe or Oz I would fly. Cheaper, faster and more convenient. 

Anyway the half way house in the above scenario you describe is a vehicle with a PHEV set up. Battery for most day to day lower speed driving and an engine for longer distances & high speed travel. 

I don’t know if college kids do that today or not, but the takeaway from this discussion, that I see, is that Americans are willing to drive longer distances than Europeans, or surprisingly, Aussies.

Flying, regardless of cost, is not always the answer. What if you need a vehicle where you are going? What if you’ll be there several days or several weeks? Yes, you can rent a car, but perhaps when added to the cost of the flight, flying becomes the more expensive option.

Furthermore, regardless of how fast the recharging infrastructure comes about, I am sure Eastern Colorado, the Texas Panhandle and the San Rafael Swell will not be ‘first on the list’. Electrics may be great in a city, but would suck in rural America, Canada or Oz.