When Can Electric Cars Compete on Cost with ICE

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Nick,

I do not doubt what you are saying, you are obviously much more knowledgeable on this subject than I am.

What is confusing me is, if this technology is so damn good, and presently available, why isn’t it being accepted and out there on the road?

It is a fact that after scientific discoveries it usually takes about twenty years for them to be accepted and used. Sometimes it takes far longer. Some factors would be capitalization, demand for change, communication, profitability versus interest in not bothering to change, governmental permissions, salesmanship, etc. 

[PE Scott + 563]

12 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Imagine, if you will, somebody actually stopped talking about this stuff and, without any subsidies or tax breaks, built a ‘proof of concept’ system/ design that actually proved the concept to work AND generate a profit.

This would silence the nay-sayers and attract investors.

I agree this is what needs to be done. If it weren't for the $7500 tax credit and 0% interest financing, I probably wouldn't have bought an EV. Even with that, the cost is rather insane. I often question my own sanity as a Ford Edge or Acura RDX is about the same size and half initial price as the Jaguar EV. Sure, you could argue it should be compared to a Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, etc, but at that point I would argue you're paying for the brand, not an increase in utility or durability. 

Of the more cost effective EVs available, none of then are all that inspiring to a driving enthusiast. No one is trading their Camaro for a Chevy Bolt or their M3 for an I3. Probably the best offering so far is a base level model 3, but then who orders the base model? Is it even worth the $45k price tag? Even then, that's a lot of money compared to a ~$20k entry level sedan. ($30k and you have most bells and whistles)

I think the cost associated with building EVs is going to be the biggest problem for the foreseeable future. The good news is, there are plenty of idiots in the U.S. willing to finance a car for 50% of their monthly income. Marketing and American greed and consumerism could very well drive EV's adoption by millenials. Just look at California.

[PE Scott + 563]

2 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

PE is the raptor supercharged? 6.2L is alot of engine ! Turbos dont add load off gas but superchargers always had load now some have a clutch system. Superchargers have better down low with no spool up time. For those wondering . I did the math looks like your doing 11.3L/100km if so even it that's highway that's impressive . Raptor is like 600hp? Plus tires for mud not aerodynamic jacked up with large frontal surface area.

No, the original 5.4L Raptor and the later 6.2L raptor were both naturally aspirated with a 6-speed transmission.

The 5.4L, in my experience, got around 15 mpg if you were gentle with the throttle. It was 350ish HP I think.

The 6.2L Raptor, my second, was up to 450ish HP, but down to 11.5 -13 mpg. I saw much bigger changes in it when I drove slightly faster or accelerated a little harder. I definately did my part to stimulate the oil market with that truck.

The newest one is the EcoBoost HO 3.5L TT putting down 450+ HP and over 500 ft-lbs of torque. On a recent trip from Laredo to Albuquerque, on Texas summer gas...86 Octane, I averaged over 17.5 mpg doing 70-75 a good deal of the way. That's the beat I've ever seen out of it. Today, looking at my average over the past 6k miles, I'm at 16.0 mpg on the nose. This is all based on trip computers though, so it could be a little inaccurate. 

By comparison, my father in law has almost the identical F150 in a platinum trim, smaller tires (27" I think), the regular 350hp EcoBoost engine, a 6-speed transmission, and a bed cover. My truck was in the shop, to replace one of Fords shitty IWE's, so I drove his for a couple days to help move some light household stuff.....nothing heavy. His trip computer showed 15.7 mpg when I got in. I reset it and drove like I normally do for a couple days and was getting 16.8. Still, I found that terribly bad relative to everything else I've driven. Apparently that 10-speed transmission and an enormous OD is the ticket to better efficiency with these trucks.

My fathers stock Chevy Silverado though, I think with the 5.7L V8 NA, gets closer to 21 MPG. They are incredibly efficient with their trucks.

 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

23mpg = 10.3L /100k

16.8mpg = 14L/100k

15mpg = 15.6

12mpg = 19.6 

Wow huge range ! My dad and brother eco diesel 14' and 19' get 7 -12L/100km 

My brother does all highway and averages 8L/100k to be in a 4wd 4 door diesel truck 280 hp 430 tq and I get 8-9L/100 70% highway in a small 2L fwd 6speed gdi tuscon. 

My buddy has the 5.3 4wd z71 chevy and gets 11-14L/100. I thought 11 on the highway was amazing until the ecodiesel.

I do all my family's work so cost factor of oil change : ecodiesel 10.5L of shell t6 roughly 36$/5L x2 +plus 14$ ac delco bulk oil filters plus 50$ def fluid. All that is bulk / sale cost then tax so about 170$.  Vs dealership 290$.

Tucson 13$/5L oil only use 4L and 2$ bulk Kia filters . About 15$ with a L left over. Vs dealership 65$

[Otis11 + 551]

On 11/11/2019 at 4:19 AM, NickW said:

How many Americans actually do a journey like that - ever? 

I lived in perth (OZ) for 5 years and the furthest we ever went by road was Albany (500km) and Augusta (320km).

If journeys like that are once/ twice in a life time surely better to hire a car for that and own a vehcile that is more suited to everyday needs. Or as Rob pointed out the Hybrid or PHEV would suit those long distance journeys. 

Set the limit at 300 miles? (roughly 500 km) I've driven that 9 times this year... and have plans for at least 3 more. (When going from small town to small town, flights aren't always that much shorter... plus then you're on their schedule and have to rent a car at the other end. That said, a LR Model S would be right up my ally... 370ish miles per charge works great as long as you're driving through areas with Super Chargers - which happens to work well for all but 1 of my regular long trip routes)

On 11/11/2019 at 5:08 AM, NickW said:

Would a college student typically do that today?

Don't know about the pricing but in Europe or Oz I would fly. Cheaper, faster and more convenient. 

Anyway the half way house in the above scenario you describe is a vehicle with a PHEV set up. Battery for most day to day lower speed driving and an engine for longer distances & high speed travel. 

See, throw in that you can cram 4-7 people in a typical american vehicle, and it's a lot cheaper to drive. Plus luggage, you can bring the dogs, etc. Just with my wife an I, it's cheaper to drive the vast majority of our trips, even if you don't include costs of dogs. Throw in that the dogs come then, and no contest. Plus my wife enjoys having the dogs with us.

 

On 11/11/2019 at 9:18 AM, Rob Kramer said:

Hybrids are a tick better even on highway than non hybrid. They get aero trim that isnt sext but is good around wind also toyota have essentially a thermus that holds at temp coolant so apont start up there is no warm up time . Full underplayed for wind also most reg cars only have half plates underneath. 

On top of this, they can use the Atkinson cycle engine instead of the otto cycle, which is more efficient, but much less responsive. (The electric motor makes it seem responsive enough most drivers don't notice)

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 11/11/2019 at 9:56 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

Imagine, if you will, somebody actually stopped talking about this stuff and, without any subsidies or tax breaks, built a ‘proof of concept’ system/ design that actually proved the concept to work AND generate a profit.

This would silence the nay-sayers and attract investors.

So you changed the subject Doug. You were talking about the power of diesel vs. natural gas. I don't know of any subsidies for ships or big rigs, do you?

[Rob Kramer + 696]

I also forgot to add to info about hybrids : ( along with the 5 stroke / Atkinson cycle mazda + toyota ) some companies use smaller engines honda civics were 1.5L 1.6L and 1.7L the hybrid was a 1.3L for a long time. 01 -13? 

I like the new RAM e torque system as it's just a bigger battery and belt to make the alternator the starter and boost from stop. Could in theory be put on any vehicle although in practice would only be worth it on new vehicles. 

Also when you look at numbers like the VOLT 2.5L / 100km seems propane or cng would be ideal as the tank doesn't have to be massive to have range ? - Ron what is the tank size difference if you know a ratio? 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

So you changed the subject Doug. You were talking about the power of diesel vs. natural gas. I don't know of any subsidies for ships or big rigs, do you?

I was really talking about the appeal of natural gas vehicles/EV’s as opposed to ICE. Apologies if off topic.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

 When it comes to big rigs and big work trucks or buses I favor ICE natural gas. Dual fuel is an option for Pickups and vans though.

In case you missed it, UPS just bought 30,000 more CNG natural gas big rigs. They are probably the biggest users of NG vehicles and have been using them for years. I imagine that they go over a lot of mountain passes. Diesel may be used, especially for start up. Something about lubrication is involved. Some also can be dual fuel and use diesel if desired. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/16/2019 at 6:38 PM, ronwagn said:

 When it comes to big rigs and big work trucks or buses I favor ICE natural gas. Dual fuel is an option for Pickups and vans though.

In case you missed it, UPS just bought 30,000 more CNG natural gas big rigs. They are probably the biggest users of NG vehicles and have been using them for years. I imagine that they go over a lot of mountain passes. Diesel may be used, especially for start up. Something about lubrication is involved. Some also can be dual fuel and use diesel if desired. 

If its NG run through a diesel engine you need a small quantity of diesel to ignite the NG as the the NG won't ignite under compression alone. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 11/12/2019 at 9:40 AM, ronwagn said:

It is a fact that after scientific discoveries it usually takes about twenty years for them to be accepted and used. Sometimes it takes far longer. Some factors would be capitalization, demand for change, communication, profitability versus interest in not bothering to change, governmental permissions, salesmanship, etc. 

“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.”
― Max Planck, Scientific Autobiography and Other Papers

Pollution deniers die, Greta lives on. LOL.  Planck was a genius of the highest order.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

If its NG run through a diesel engine you need a small quantity of diesel to ignite the NG as the the NG won't ignite under compression alone. 

Perhaps retrofit with a combined spark / glow plug? 

Conceivably enrich the intake air with a bit of Nat gas (but still lean) and then inject a much smaller amount of diesel than normal to bring up the richness to spec?

Just speculating, no idea if that would work.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Enthalpic

[NickW + 2,714]

11 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Perhaps retrofit with a combined spark / glow plug? 

Conceivably enrich the intake air with a bit of Nat gas (but still lean) and then inject a much smaller amount of diesel than normal to bring up the richness to spec?

Just speculating, no idea if that would work.

Glow plugs don't work. Second point you make is basically how diesel engines run on NG.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 11/9/2019 at 11:27 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

All good points gentlemen, but you have failed to address the perception that the general public has towards electric or natural gas powered PERSONAL vehicles.

At this point in time many people, myself included, do not have a great deal of faith in electric or natural gas vehicles being able to meet my personal requirements concerning power, torque, cost, convenience or fun factor.

You can flog the technical advances or preach ‘carbon footprint’ until you are blue in the face, but until you can actually get people to WANT to buy these vehicles, you are fighting a losing battle UNLESS you feel that another unfunded government mandate is the way to go.

Do not under estimate the ‘fun factor’. People buy vehicles to address their transportation needs and cost, but they also look at how ‘cool’ the vehicle is and it’s performance.

I expect some backlash from the climate crowd as well as the technological crowd. But until you offer a vehicle that people actually want to buy, you’re only option is to force it on them.

 

On 11/10/2019 at 4:39 AM, NickW said:

Tesla seems to have done rather well in that aspect. 

 

Tesla proved the concept.  It has now become clear that EVs outperform ICEs.  The result is that traditional auto manufacturers are electrifying high-performance vehicles in an attempt to keep up with Tesla. 

The first step is hybridizing existing vehicle platforms to improve both fuel economy and performance.  The final step will be complete electrification.  Note that BMW is already removing the range extender from their i3, and every auto manufacturer is planning an extensive product lineup of all-electric vehicles. 

Current EV market share is irrelevant.  The important points are:
1)  The trend toward greater EV market share.
2)  The incredible resources being poured into vehicle electrification by all manufacturers. 

Don't look at where the industry is today; look at where it's intentionally going. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 12/4/2019 at 8:02 PM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Don't look at where the industry is today; look at where it's intentionally going. 

To elaborate a little further on this - it takes times to build manufacturing infrastructure and supplychain. The start is always the toughest. 

[Rob Plant + 2,617]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

To elaborate a little further on this - it takes times to build manufacturing infrastructure and supplychain. The start is always the toughest. 

Agreed

You only have to look at the huge investment / development of battery storage and performance which is almost like an arms race amongst the EV car manufacturers.

Whoever has the best battery will ultimately have the best car. The rise of battery giga-factories will see a reduction in the initial price outlay for EV's in the near future

Edited December 6, 2019 by Rob Plant

[PE Scott + 563]

In america, I think the real trick is making an affordable electric SUV. If the ev vehicles gets a solid footing in the average soccer mom market, I'm pretty sure they will take off. In that regard, I think the cyber truck will be more successful as a suburban people carrier than it will be in a roll as a truck.

Edited December 6, 2019 by PE Scott

[James Gautreau + 86]

From what I've read it'll be 2024 with oil prices where they are now. If they go up that will move forward. The key to remember is the oil industry needs another surge in prices to continue to survive and they know by 2024 EV's become competitive. So somewhere between now and 2024 there will be a oil price spike. I believe it will be shale oil rapid decline rates that will push price up fast, especially if OPEC and Russia can't raise their production. Shale is peaking now and its decline will be obvious by next summer. Prices will rise. Once the permanent state of oil scarcity becomes the new malignant normal, EV sales will boom and the resale value of IC's will plummet. We've seen this movie before in 2008, but there is no per-source rocks to drill this time. After the oil in source rocks is gone, the oil is gone, and then it's squeezing the flat lemon harder and harder and getting less and less each time. 

[remake it + 288]

On 12/5/2019 at 5:02 AM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

The first step is hybridizing existing vehicle platforms to improve both fuel economy and performance.  The final step will be complete electrification. 

Not quite sure that makes sense, as Tesla's jump to EVs even before adequate infrastructure seems to have paid off, and it's not apparent that there are real advantages to adding complexity to a simple solution (unless you are talking outside of passenger vehicle markets).

[NickW + 2,714]

EV Battery prices fell 13% in 2019 which is significant as the battery is the biggest single component cost in any EV. 

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126308_electric-car-battery-prices-dropped-13-in-2019-will-reach-100-kwh-in-2023

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 12/6/2019 at 11:19 PM, remake it said:

Not quite sure that makes sense, as Tesla's jump to EVs even before adequate infrastructure seems to have paid off, and it's not apparent that there are real advantages to adding complexity to a simple solution (unless you are talking outside of passenger vehicle markets).

Point taken.

I'm referring to the hybrid vehicles luxury automakers are already designing.  E.g. Mercedes' new I6 engine was designed from the ground up to be a hybrid.  It requires a hybrid system to achieve desired performance. 

Of course, everyone's BEV plans have accelerated, and it's likely the hybrid concept is on the way out.  It's still a stepping stone though, however short-lived. 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 12/6/2019 at 2:35 AM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

To elaborate a little further on this - it takes times to build manufacturing infrastructure and supplychain. The start is always the toughest. 

Agreed.

That said, I'm not an expert on supply chain.  Can you elaborate on some of the supply chain challenges EVs will face?  Can you build us a picture of what the BEV buildout will look like? 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 12/6/2019 at 1:35 AM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

To elaborate a little further on this - it takes times to build manufacturing infrastructure and supplychain. The start is always the toughest. 

Imagine switching from a horse that basically "fills up" on grass and water to a car. 

"Who is going to put refined oil refueling stations every hundred miles?  It will never happen!  The horseless carriage has no future!" 

Now we have 3 stations right next to each other...

 

Edited December 8, 2019 by Enthalpic

[Rob Kramer + 696]

Well we switched from horses to cars because they took too long to fill, did not go far enough, got a .75c government incentive and were told without cars the world would freeze over in an ice age as happened previously! 

(Please read this as pure humor)

[remake it + 288]

15 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

That said, I'm not an expert on supply chain.  Can you elaborate on some of the supply chain challenges EVs will face?  Can you build us a picture of what the BEV buildout will look like? 

It seemed an unusual point given vehicle manufacture infrastructure is mature and also that BEV charging can and is mostly undertaken at home, which leaves battery gigafactories as the fly in the ointment except that these are planned to coincide with major auto manufacturers' rolling out their new BEV offerings over the next few years.