Offshore SE Asia: Offshore OFS Could Get Major Boost in SE Asia

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Offshore OFS Could Get Major Boost in SE Asia

 

 

Offshore project sanctions in Southeast Asia could lift greenfield investments in the oilfield services market by nearly 70 percent in 2020, according to Norwegian energy research firm Rystad Energy.

That’s thanks to megaprojects in Malaysia, Myanmar and Vietnam with new final investment decisions (FIDs) expected in 2021 for Vietnam, Indonesia and Brunei.

“We anticipate that operators will aim to place most of the associated contracts within their domestic markets, which will be welcome news for local players like Sapura Energy, MMC Oil & Gas, MMHE and many of the smaller yards,” Chinmayi Teggi, an analyst on Rystad Energy’s oilfield services solutions team, said in an email sent to Rigzone.

Rystad said that for suppliers, established local yards as well as major international players are “set to make a splash” while fixed platforms and floating units will rake in more than $2.5 billion in equipment purchase commitments and more than $4 billion for construction and installation of vessels and platforms.

The FPSO market is also expected to get a boost in Southeast Asia.

“All in all, the subsea market could see greenfield commitments worth more than $1.3 billion over the next two years, nearly double the $700 million in subsea commitments in 2019,” Teggi said.

Rystad notes the following key projects in Southeast Asia:

Myanmar

Two major contract awards are expected off the coast of Myanmar – the Shwe Yee Htun (Block A6) .

Thailand

Ubon is a floating production, storage and offloading unit and a major contract with a low breakeven price set to award FEED contracts in 2020.

Vietnam

The Ca Voi Xanh (Blue Whale) development off Vietnam’s eastern coast is expected to experience delays beyond 2020, but it will likely be a key driver behind upcoming contract commitments. Another FPSO scheme is taking shape off Vietnam’s southwestern coast, with a field development plan submitted recently for the Nam Du/U Minh project.

Malaysia

Malaysia could see contract awards on as many as six projects. The large and promising Jerun field involves a central processing platform (CPP) with a gas export pipeline to the E11 platform and FEED bids are currently being evaluated on the nearby Rosmari/Majoram project, Worley pegged as the likely front-runner. An FPSO charter contract is being tendered for the Limbayong oil field development, with several regional players in the race.

Indonesia

Two fields are in the pipeline in Indonesia: the Gendalo-Gehem field, which has completed pre-FEED, and the nearby Merakes project, TECHNIP was awarded.

Brunei

The Kelidang and Keratau fields are at the finishing stages of pre-FEED work, both being conducted by Aker Solutions. Both are looking to begin FEED soon, with the operator expected to tender for a floating production unit (FPU) and subsea facilities in 2020.

 

 

 

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Ceo, do you see any Asian onshore drilling campaigns starting up in 2020?

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

This is one, but I have about a few in the Philippines, which I doubt will amount to much. We have a few projects going on in the Philippines that will start coming online soon but they are not in the upstream.

I had. heard from some of the execs of SE Asian focused companies about their plans to initiate some projects but no more word on that. India has been pushing for licensing awards for onshore blocks. China is pushing for that too. Moving further out from there, into Australia, there is a lot of activity that has been going on and and getting ready to begin in their onshore sector.

 

https://www.rigzone.com/news/onshore_timorleste_drilling_to_start_in_early_2020-24-sep-2019-159883-article/

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Thanks!

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Just now, Douglas Buckland said:

Thanks!

NP

Here is some interesting stuff about SE Asia overall

 

https://www.drillingcontractor.org/670000-wells-to-be-drilled-through-2020-28709

 

 

 

https://www.offshore-mag.com/field-development/article/16802673/gas-set-to-dominate-southeast-asia-projects-going-forward

 

https://www.iadc.org/event/hset-asia-pacific-2020/

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

15 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Offshore OFS Could Get Major Boost in SE Asia

 

 

Offshore project sanctions in Southeast Asia could lift greenfield investments in the oilfield services market by nearly 70 percent in 2020, according to Norwegian energy research firm Rystad Energy.

That’s thanks to megaprojects in Malaysia, Myanmar and Vietnam with new final investment decisions (FIDs) expected in 2021 for Vietnam, Indonesia and Brunei.

“We anticipate that operators will aim to place most of the associated contracts within their domestic markets, which will be welcome news for local players like Sapura Energy, MMC Oil & Gas, MMHE and many of the smaller yards,” Chinmayi Teggi, an analyst on Rystad Energy’s oilfield services solutions team, said in an email sent to Rigzone.

Rystad said that for suppliers, established local yards as well as major international players are “set to make a splash” while fixed platforms and floating units will rake in more than $2.5 billion in equipment purchase commitments and more than $4 billion for construction and installation of vessels and platforms.

The FPSO market is also expected to get a boost in Southeast Asia.

“All in all, the subsea market could see greenfield commitments worth more than $1.3 billion over the next two years, nearly double the $700 million in subsea commitments in 2019,” Teggi said.

Rystad notes the following key projects in Southeast Asia:

Myanmar

Two major contract awards are expected off the coast of Myanmar – the Shwe Yee Htun (Block A6) .

Thailand

Ubon is a floating production, storage and offloading unit and a major contract with a low breakeven price set to award FEED contracts in 2020.

Vietnam

The Ca Voi Xanh (Blue Whale) development off Vietnam’s eastern coast is expected to experience delays beyond 2020, but it will likely be a key driver behind upcoming contract commitments. Another FPSO scheme is taking shape off Vietnam’s southwestern coast, with a field development plan submitted recently for the Nam Du/U Minh project.

Malaysia

Malaysia could see contract awards on as many as six projects. The large and promising Jerun field involves a central processing platform (CPP) with a gas export pipeline to the E11 platform and FEED bids are currently being evaluated on the nearby Rosmari/Majoram project, Worley pegged as the likely front-runner. An FPSO charter contract is being tendered for the Limbayong oil field development, with several regional players in the race.

Indonesia

Two fields are in the pipeline in Indonesia: the Gendalo-Gehem field, which has completed pre-FEED, and the nearby Merakes project, TECHNIP was awarded.

Brunei

The Kelidang and Keratau fields are at the finishing stages of pre-FEED work, both being conducted by Aker Solutions. Both are looking to begin FEED soon, with the operator expected to tender for a floating production unit (FPU) and subsea facilities in 2020.

 

 

 

 

I would like to see more development off the coast of Vietnam, Philippines, and other areas claimed by China.

What will this do to the oil prices worldwide?

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

27 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I would like to see more development off the coast of Vietnam, Philippines, and other areas claimed by China.

What will this do to the oil prices worldwide?

Vietnam offshore has been rapidly declining in production so they need to have a lot of investment on continuous basis to keep up, kinda like shale LOL.

I dont think from now going forward much of Vietnamese production will go out of the region. Many years ago I  brought many cargoes of several Vietnamese crudes to the USGC and USAC. Vietnam has even imported US crude to run in their refinery.

Vietnam's Dung Quat refinery to import more WTI crude in H2 -executive

https://www.reuters.com/article/vietnam-us-oil/update-1-vietnams-dung-quat-refinery-to-import-more-wti-crude-in-h2-executive-idUSL4N24O17P

 

 

 

Philippines, there is a lot of gas potential, like their giant Malampaya gas-condensate field.

https://malampaya.com/

https://www.philstar.com/business/2019/11/11/1967642/chevron-selling-45-stake-malampaya

 

I have not seen any significant prospects for large offshore oil production in the Philippines lately. I dont think anything maybe more than 50,000bpd coming out of those waters per prospect maybe. They started producing 150-300bpd estimated to reach 1000bpd from an onshore field but their reserves are only 27mmboe .

 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Offshore Oil to Peak in 2020, Then Join Shale in Market Slowdown

 

(Bloomberg) -- Offshore oil production is expected to hit a peak in 2020 before joining the shale industry in a slowdown that could dramatically rewrite market supply predictions.

A report by analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. sees projects in the Gulf of Mexico and off of South America significantly boosting output next year. After that, though, the odds drop for any further growth gains, the report found. Meanwhile, two well-known shale pioneers last month forecast a downturn ahead for their sector.

Together, the warnings could signal a new era for a commodity that’s selling for about half the price reached just five years ago. The catalyst is a shareholder push for spending discipline. The result: Potentially a “tempting scenario” for investors where oil prices rise even as costs and demand fall, said Bob Brackett, a Bernstein report author.

Three crude sources have seen substantive growth this century -- deepwater, shale and oil sands, according to Brackett. “The first peaks in 2020,” he wrote in an email. “The second peaks a few years later (and is slowing). And the future of oil sands is in question from a sustainability/CO2 impact.”

The offshore industry has struggled to maintain growth since oil prices plunged to less than $30 a barrel in 2016 after reaching more than $100 in mid-2014.

The high prices spurred a flurry of expensive projects between 2010 and 2014. But today those projects are “barely able” to generate value, according to industry consultant Rystad Energy, which evaluated offshore oil fields sanctioned since 2010 in an Oct. 30 report and ranked them by estimated value per barrel of oil.

While newer deepwater projects are less expensive, they still take longer to develop than shale wells and they can’t compete on costs. Over the last few years, roughly $100 billion in spending has shifted to shale work as a result, according IHS Markit.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s decision last month to pull the plug on a pair of projects in Kazakhstan because of their high costs points to offshore’s changing status. The latest example hit last week when Brazil failed to draw bids from the world’s oil majors in its auction of deep-sea deposits that could hold 15 billion barrels of oil, almost twice as much as Norway’s reserves.

“The pipeline of things that have been discovered just won’t get sanctioned,” Brackett said.

Shale industry pioneers Scott Sheffield, Pioneer Natural Resources Co.’s chief executive officer, and Mark Papa, who built Enron Corp. castoff EOG Resources Inc. into one of the world’s biggest independent oil explorers, are sounding the alarm on shale growth.

Across the shale industry, output growth will slow next year, Sheffield said on Nov. 5. That will provide a boost for prices through the early 2020s, he said.

“U.S. shale production on a year-over-year growth basis will be considerably less powerful in 2021 and later years than most people currently expect,” Papa said during an earnings call for Centennial Resource Development Inc., his current company.

To be sure, both the shale and offshore sectors will continue to produce. Sheffield sees about 700,000 barrels a day being added next year in U.S. shale fields while the Energy Information Administration predicts daily production will expand by 910,000 barrels. Even that, though, would be half of last year’s increase.

In early 2020, Exxon Mobil Corp. is expected to begin producing oil from deepwater wells off the coast of Guyana that have the potential to produce more than 6 billion barrels. Meanwhile, eight new projects are opening in the Gulf of Mexico this year and in 2020, according to an Oct. 16 report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Even so, the Gulf’s share of U.S. production overall is expected to shrink, the EIA report said, to about 15% from 23% in 2011. In 2014, the industry had 245 floating rigs working globally, according to Evercore ISI. Now there are less than half that number, and workers in the industry see few silver linings ahead.

“The fracking technology has just opened up so much more oil,” said Chip Keener, a former manager of the global rig fleet for Transocean Ltd., the biggest owner of deepwater rigs. “Deepwater I think is going to be on the skids for a very long time.”

To contact the reporter on this story: David Wethe in Houston at dwethe@bloomberg.net

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/offshore-oil-peak-2020-then-113000831.html

 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Offshore Oil to Peak in 2020, Then Join Shale in Market Slowdown

 

(Bloomberg) -- Offshore oil production is expected to hit a peak in 2020 before joining the shale industry in a slowdown that could dramatically rewrite market supply predictions.

A report by analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. sees projects in the Gulf of Mexico and off of South America significantly boosting output next year. After that, though, the odds drop for any further growth gains, the report found. Meanwhile, two well-known shale pioneers last month forecast a downturn ahead for their sector.

Together, the warnings could signal a new era for a commodity that’s selling for about half the price reached just five years ago. The catalyst is a shareholder push for spending discipline. The result: Potentially a “tempting scenario” for investors where oil prices rise even as costs and demand fall, said Bob Brackett, a Bernstein report author.

Three crude sources have seen substantive growth this century -- deepwater, shale and oil sands, according to Brackett. “The first peaks in 2020,” he wrote in an email. “The second peaks a few years later (and is slowing). And the future of oil sands is in question from a sustainability/CO2 impact.”

The offshore industry has struggled to maintain growth since oil prices plunged to less than $30 a barrel in 2016 after reaching more than $100 in mid-2014.

The high prices spurred a flurry of expensive projects between 2010 and 2014. But today those projects are “barely able” to generate value, according to industry consultant Rystad Energy, which evaluated offshore oil fields sanctioned since 2010 in an Oct. 30 report and ranked them by estimated value per barrel of oil.

While newer deepwater projects are less expensive, they still take longer to develop than shale wells and they can’t compete on costs. Over the last few years, roughly $100 billion in spending has shifted to shale work as a result, according IHS Markit.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s decision last month to pull the plug on a pair of projects in Kazakhstan because of their high costs points to offshore’s changing status. The latest example hit last week when Brazil failed to draw bids from the world’s oil majors in its auction of deep-sea deposits that could hold 15 billion barrels of oil, almost twice as much as Norway’s reserves.

“The pipeline of things that have been discovered just won’t get sanctioned,” Brackett said.

Shale industry pioneers Scott Sheffield, Pioneer Natural Resources Co.’s chief executive officer, and Mark Papa, who built Enron Corp. castoff EOG Resources Inc. into one of the world’s biggest independent oil explorers, are sounding the alarm on shale growth.

Across the shale industry, output growth will slow next year, Sheffield said on Nov. 5. That will provide a boost for prices through the early 2020s, he said.

“U.S. shale production on a year-over-year growth basis will be considerably less powerful in 2021 and later years than most people currently expect,” Papa said during an earnings call for Centennial Resource Development Inc., his current company.

To be sure, both the shale and offshore sectors will continue to produce. Sheffield sees about 700,000 barrels a day being added next year in U.S. shale fields while the Energy Information Administration predicts daily production will expand by 910,000 barrels. Even that, though, would be half of last year’s increase.

In early 2020, Exxon Mobil Corp. is expected to begin producing oil from deepwater wells off the coast of Guyana that have the potential to produce more than 6 billion barrels. Meanwhile, eight new projects are opening in the Gulf of Mexico this year and in 2020, according to an Oct. 16 report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Even so, the Gulf’s share of U.S. production overall is expected to shrink, the EIA report said, to about 15% from 23% in 2011. In 2014, the industry had 245 floating rigs working globally, according to Evercore ISI. Now there are less than half that number, and workers in the industry see few silver linings ahead.

“The fracking technology has just opened up so much more oil,” said Chip Keener, a former manager of the global rig fleet for Transocean Ltd., the biggest owner of deepwater rigs. “Deepwater I think is going to be on the skids for a very long time.”

To contact the reporter on this story: David Wethe in Houston at dwethe@bloomberg.net

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/offshore-oil-peak-2020-then-113000831.html

 

 

And then we have Venezuelan and Iranian oil potential.  

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

13 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

And then we have Venezuelan and Iranian oil potential.  

The schittshape of the Venezuelan oil industry will take it many many years 5 atleast, to get to 1 mil bpd because it is so so bad, same with Iran and plus Iran now halved the volume of their so called new oil find and I am pretty sure that by the time things turn around for them, it will be half of that.