Pioneer's Sheffield in Doghouse. Oil upset his bragging about Shale hurt prices. Now on campaign to lower expectations, prop up price.

[Jabbar + 465]

10 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

So, I guess that since Nick’s viewpoint is different than, say yours, we should discount his opinion and embrace yours?

That is not debate, that is bias.

No. I am saying you should consider the source of his data.  Be open minded.  Some report from a Green Teamer from "The Post Carbon Project" talking about shale oil reserves as opposed to the CEOs of Chevron, Exxon, Conoco or Occidental. Or OPEC, EIA or IEA  . . . I'll tend to side with the latter.  

Guys it's just opinion . OK

I give my opinion and tell you why I take that position.  Debate is good. Isn't that what this forum is about.

In the end I guess everyone believes what they want to believe. 

To trade a commodity successfully one needs to keep emotions out of your decision making.  Because emotion can cloud ones views. 

 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Jabbar

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

7 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Would you be willing to concede that Nick brings his Own bias to every single thing he writes? 

Not saying he doesn’t, but do you discount one persons bias over another's?

There is a fine line between bias and opinion.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

31 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Not saying he doesn’t, but do you discount one persons bias over another's?

There is a fine line between bias and opinion.

We all have bias, being able to park it is the challenge. Back when I was a champion debater we used to flip a coin at the beginning of every debate. The coin decided whether you were affirmative or negative to the proposition. I didn't like it at first but later realized it was excellent practice for keeping from getting engrained. For every "debate" here I could argue either side equally. But that isn't my interest in these proceedings. I wish to establish my preferred positions and see who agrees. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

Back when I was a champion debater

Subtle ...  

@Otis11 - style namedropping

 

#published

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Everybody will form an opinion on each and every issue, as it is THEIR opinion, by definition, they are biased towards it.

The problem comes in when someone will not even consider, or respect, someone else's opinion.

Once this lack of respect or consideration is present, in any discussion or debate, there is no point entering or furthering the discussion and any benefit is lost.

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

The problem comes in when someone will not even consider, or respect, someone else's opinion.

Well luckily that never happens here, so crack on ...

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Subtle ...  

@Otis11 - style namedropping

 

#published

I was thinking of writing a 653 page book on ethanol but some wanker beat me to it! 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

I was thinking of writing a 653 page book on ethanol but some wanker beat me to it! 

We will always need an updated ‘sequel’ Ward...lest we forget the mind numbing benefits of ethanol. Get after it!😂

Edited November 14, 2019 by Douglas Buckland
Typo

[Guest]

LOL yep, a 'book' that's given away for free ... think that might be coz no one bought it?

Weird, it was such a snappy title. 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Guest

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

47 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

LOL yep, a 'book' that's given away for free ... think that might be coz no one bought it?

Weird, it was such a snappy title. 

You need to get out more.....😂

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

You need to get out more.....😂

Hahaha very true, but luckily I'm not so much of a loser that I need to invent my 'life' on an oil forum. Phew.

Just sayin'   

#LV  #41or14?  #trash  #8ball  #freud

Edited November 14, 2019 by Guest

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

21 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Hahaha very true, but luckily I'm not so much of a loser that I need to invent my 'life' on an oil forum. Phew.

Just sayin'   

#LV  #41or14? #trash #8ball #freud

👍🏻

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,223]

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

We will always need an updated ‘sequel’ Ward...lest we forget the mind numbing benefits of ethanol. Get after it!😂

The "poor-poor" farmer has to pay for their million dollar combines via corn/ethanol. Please take some pity on them. 😢

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 11/13/2019 at 12:54 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Scott Sheffield is a very smart man who bought most of Pioneer's acreage in the Permian when prices were still low. He has always looked at this problem with light tight oil through the lenses of his own price point. His son, who started Parsley, did almost as well. I'm sure their dinner table and boardroom talk is based on their low entry prices. As the first CEO of Pioneer, now doing a repeat performance to rescue the company from ruin, he has always been a cheerleader for his company and shale oil in particular, much like the late Aubrey McClendon did. Aubrey didn't seem to realize that in cheerleading and putting the pedal to the metal he was actually driving down the price of gas. Scott is similar with oil. He's also a Texas, born and raised, and doesn't see too many Teslas on his way to the Petroleum Club for lunch. Where I live, if I make the two-mile trek to the ACE Hardware store, I will meet a dozen Teslas and there will be twenty in the parking lot. The United States is growing more divisive by the day . . . and that hasn't spared attitudes about electric vehicles. Personally, I wouldn't ride in a Tesla if you gave me the car. I think the EV world is largely hype, and when you dig deeper, into the methods of obtaining cobalt from the Congo, the petrochemical cost of the battery, chassis, the wheels and rubber, it's going to take a mighty long time to get to the breakeven point on carbon footprints, as they like to say. It's a bit like Al Gore flying around a million miles a year preaching to the rest of us pudknockers about saving the planet. So I say, give old Scott a break--he's not a bad guy and he's talking his book. Opinions are like assholes: everyone has one. Mine is unique to me, of course: I think we will wallow around a bit, mainly because the Saudis can't force themselves to make the two million barrel a day cuts they need to make. Then they will, because things will get rough. And then, and only then, will oil prices reach $100. Peak oil demand? I have to say, I think old Scott hit the nail on the head--some time after 2030. The middle class is buying cars. EV sales are tapering off. The International Maritime Organization MARPOL mandate of using 0.5% sulfur fuel instead of 3.5% in 60,000 oceangoing freighters is going to literally turn around the global pollution stratosphere. We are still in the tailend of the last Ice Age. So move over, Scott, I'm right there with you. Just talk quieter: the whole damn world is listening, including those morons who want to go all-renewable tomorrow.

You forgot about natural gas vehicle growth. UPS just ordered 30,000 more big rigs. They are probably the largest user of natural gas big rigs. I can't remember how many autos average to equal one big rig, but it is about 5 on MPG. The big rigs run almost all the time, unlike autos though so burn far more per each. https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10310

[Boat + 1,323]

Getting rid of those bunker fuels should make a huge impact on air quality around the world. How much will this move the needle in accomplishing the Paris Accord goals. 
This is a huge win for the idea of globalization discussion which mostly gets bogged down in migration/immigration conflict. Almost all the countries of the world came together for the good of us all. Cleaner air while fighting climate change. Amazing accomplishment.
If you think outside the box a bit trade wars are attempts at the idea all trade could be equal. The growing pains of globalization. Now all we need is to marshal more green best practices and tie them to trade. This would be the teeth behind a cleaner world. 
A huge fear is one country getting an economic advantage over another by avoiding these global green initiatives. That’s why the idea of globalization and basic rules of the road need the buy in of all countries. Can the world use the bunker fuel changes as a building block? 

[Guest]

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/green-illusion-continues-tesla-crash-victim-cant-find-anyone-recycle-his-wrecked-car

The "Green" Illusion Continues: Tesla Crash Victim Can't Find Anyone To Recycle His Wrecked Car

@Jabbar      #alexandergrahambell ...   

  OR    ??

                         ♥️♥️♥️                                                                        ☹️☹️☹️

Edited November 14, 2019 by Guest

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

5 hours ago, DayTrader said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/green-illusion-continues-tesla-crash-victim-cant-find-anyone-recycle-his-wrecked-car

The "Green" Illusion Continues: Tesla Crash Victim Can't Find Anyone To Recycle His Wrecked Car

@Jabbar      #alexandergrahambell ...   

  OR    ??

                         ♥️♥️♥️                                                                        ☹️☹️☹️

If the lithium was exposed to the air, that would make it combust. If they sprayed 11,000 liters of water on it, that would make it combust AND explode! 

Even Russian rednecks know this

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

If the lithium was exposed to the air, that would make it combust. If they sprayed 11,000 liters of water on it, that would make it combust AND explode! 

Even Russian rednecks know this

And yet, what is actually burning on yon EV?🤔

Methinks it is those bedamned petrochemical products that so foul our erstwhile globe.

@DayTrader Did I nail the English or wot? I couldn’t fit in whilst or a thence...)😂

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

29 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

And yet, what is actually burning on yon EV?🤔

Methinks it is those bedamned petrochemical products that so foul our erstwhile globe.

@DayTrader Did I nail the English or wot? I couldn’t fit in whilst or a thence...)😂

Ya mean it's the tyres? 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

20 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Ya mean it's the tyres? 

Tires (correct spelling as per those heathenish Yankee rednecks, ie me), any rubber items, gasket materials, plastic washer bottle for the windshield, paint, any sticker proclaiming ‘This Vehicle Saves the Planet’, etc....

PS: How do those British rednecks spell ‘wires’....wyres?

[Boat + 1,323]

On 11/13/2019 at 1:47 PM, Jabbar said:

Whatch the producer's panic selling when it finally sinks in that EVs are reducing oil demand substantially and that the barrel of oil they sell "tomorrow" will be priced lower than the barrel they sell today.  

 Don't know the date . .  but it's coming.

 

At any one time, over time, the lower cost producers will survive. Just for argument let’s say we reach peak oil in 5 years because of poor to no demand growth. Peace around the world breaks out and Iran, Iraq, Lydia, Venezuela and Nigeria can now all produce millions more barrels per year. 
So yea in the short term oil price drops but over time rig counts and investment drop until balance is achieved. Only if your a losing player and non survivor is it bad. For the survivors it’s just one more cycle. There will still be a huge market to fill for many many decades.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I’ll be long dead and pushing daisies before EV’s substantially reduce the demand for good, old crude...

viva ICE’s!😂

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 11/14/2019 at 3:27 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

We will always need an updated ‘sequel’ Ward...lest we forget the mind numbing benefits of ethanol. Get after it!😂

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

PS: How do those British rednecks spell ‘wires’....wyres?

You win my Oxymoron of the Day award.

Thanks for the chuckle this fine morning : )

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 11/13/2019 at 9:12 AM, Jabbar said:

WHAT HAPPENED

It's simple.  When the shale industry started out (1) The Peak Supply crowd was strong (2) Oil Traded $90 to $100 barrel (3) Saudi Oil Minister said Oil was going to $200 a barrel.  Business plans were based on these notions. (a) Banks lent money to producers based on this.  (b) Equity and Bond offerings were based on this. (c)  About 95% of those involved thought Oil Prices always go up.  It was taken as gospel.  Financing was available.  Producers signed contracts with landowners way overpaying, overly generous royalties.  It didn't matter.  Plenty of room for profit with $100 oil. GROW , GROW , GROW !

ITS VERY SIMPLE.  VAST MAJORITY WERE WRONG.  IT HAPPENS.  

Naysayers assumption that the demise of U.S.Shale and it's economic viability is misplaced.  Some early entrants just overpaid based on wrong assumptions.

IF NOT FOR SHALE OIL WOULD BE TRADING SOMEWHERE AROUND SAUDI Oil MINISTER'S $200 PROJECTION.

The damage was done.  When reality settled in the balance sheet and financials were already a mess.  The huge profits were all piled back into buying reserves at overpriced value. 

When the eventual downturn materialized the producers then stated . . . Oil is cyclical it ALWAYS comes back. EVERYONE (producers, investors, banks, analyst) bought into this.  when the smart money said "its different this time" they ignored them.

THERE IS A BIFURCATION IN THE INDUSTRY.  THOSE THAT CAN PRODUCE AT $45 to $55 AND THOSE THAT CAN PRODUCE AT SUB $30.

OPECs attempt to prop up prices has thrown a lifeline to the high cost shale producers.  Looks like the day of reckoning is coming 2020. The consolidation is long overdue.  Many like Chevron and Occidental have said EUR yield could double from 10% to high teens or even 20 %.  Conoco using new techniques has just  garnered 20% yield testing at a few Eagleford wells.

^ Nicely written opinion piece / summary.

I'll add my 2 cents that while the U.S. shale oil industry has greatly reduced U.S. dependence on oil from Middle East absolute dictatorship countries which depend 80% or more on oil revenues to finance their absolute religious dictatorship countries and their corresponding religious wars against competing religious ideologies and tribal / familial feuds, ... the U.S. shale industry has also kept global oil prices artificially low for several years, due to U.S. shale industry increasing production while the OPEC money cartel tries to prop up oil prices by decreasing OPEC oil production.

Net result is:

1) a lowered dependence by U.S. on importing Middle East oil, and 

2) lowered oil revenue for Middle East oil producing countries that depend primarily on oil revenues.

 

So ... if this trajectory continues, and Trump can also manage to draw down the number of U.S. troops stationed in or near Middle East oil producing countries, perhaps the Middle East could actually calm down a bit in upcoming years, due to lack of oil revenue to finance their military adventures and religious wars.