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Marina Schwarz

What Can Push Oil to $40?

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Just a mental game. What do you think should happen for prices to slump back to $40?

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Well, first, I'd bet on $55 oil, not necessarily $40. I think the fundamentals will support $55 oil. For $40 oil, the world would have to be much more stable than it is and US shale would have to really kick it into gear at the same time. 

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Not a great fundamental picture, and I would by into oil below $55...

 

Screen Shot 2018-02-13 at 8.44.40 AM.png

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$40 oil you say? US shale, combined with more tech advances. Russia giving up on the OPEC deal.China realizing it can no longer keep up with its ambitious green plan. 

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more production from other non-OPEC producers, besides the US. 

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IEA's Oil Market Report.

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