IEA predicts oil demand will grow annually at 1 million barrels a day for the next 5 years

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Greta is going to get even more mad, after she finishes her latest luxury yacht trip used for relaxing between lectures for scolding adults about stealing her childhood, and other fairy tales.

 

Oil Short-Selling Unwinds in View of Shale Woes, Trade Hopes

Hedge-fund managers unwound bets that crude will fall at the fastest pace in 16 months as the prospects for a trade war truce and a slowdown in shale drilling helped futures rebound.

Oil short-sellers slashed their bearish positions on West Texas Intermediate crude by 41% in the week ended Nov. 12, data released Friday show. As they come into the market as buyers to close positions, they are contributing to oil’s 10% rebound since early October.   ...

 

... For now, it seems the world will still need more oil. While legendary oil trader Andy Hall joined the International Energy Agency in predicting demand will probably plateau in about a decade, the organization forecasts the current growth rate of 1 million barrels a day -- or about 1% -- will hold for the next five years.  ...

 

[Jabbar + 465]

2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Greta is going to get even more mad, after she finishes her latest luxury yacht trip used for relaxing between lectures for scolding adults about stealing her childhood, and other fairy tales.

 

Oil Short-Selling Unwinds in View of Shale Woes, Trade Hopes

Hedge-fund managers unwound bets that crude will fall at the fastest pace in 16 months as the prospects for a trade war truce and a slowdown in shale drilling helped futures rebound.

Oil short-sellers slashed their bearish positions on West Texas Intermediate crude by 41% in the week ended Nov. 12, data released Friday show. As they come into the market as buyers to close positions, they are contributing to oil’s 10% rebound since early October.   ...

 

... For now, it seems the world will still need more oil. While legendary oil trader Andy Hall joined the International Energy Agency in predicting demand will probably plateau in about a decade, the organization forecasts the current growth rate of 1 million barrels a day -- or about 1% -- will hold for the next five years.  ...

 

Predictions over the last 5 years have been worthless.

Greta is a very angry young girl. I wouldn't dignify her with mention. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

1 hour ago, Jabbar said:

Predictions over the last 5 years have been worthless.

Never a truer statement made. I've been following EIA predictions for 40 years. Too many variables for accuracy. As for Greta, she is but a child and her teachers have filled her head full of bunk. Semi-socialist and shouldn't be paid any heed too. AOC 11 year prediction is whacko too. There is fortunately some checks and balances.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

IHS Market much better outfit for estimating supply-demand because they look at so many things: shipping, car sales, IMO, etc. 

The IEA is out of its league. 

And I agree with the above: Sweden is as socialistic as a country can get. Having a schoolgirl lecture to the people who have made the world turn shows you just how nuts this whole green movement has become. 

[Boat + 1,324]

Close to 6 years I guessed 2030 to be the year of peak oil. Happy to see the EIA getting much closer to my prediction. 6 years later that guess still looks good to me. Time will tell.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 11/18/2019 at 3:48 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

... For now, it seems the world will still need more oil. While legendary oil trader Andy Hall joined the International Energy Agency in predicting demand will probably plateau in about a decade, the organization forecasts the current growth rate of 1 million barrels a day -- or about 1% -- will hold for the next five years.  ...

That seems optimistic for the oil industry for two reasons:
1)  Forecasters always underestimate the effect of innovation, and innovation is disrupting all oil demand.  The demand destruction will be swift and brutal.
2)  Maintaining 1MMBPD for the next five years requires everything to go smoothly for the oil industry, and there's a non-trivial chance things will not go smoothly.  There are simply too many black swans waiting to happen: instability in the Middle East, a global recession triggered by our tenuous economic situation, miscellaneous shocks to oil supply that could increase prices, countries aggressively promoting alternatives for geopolitical reasons, escalating trade wars, etc.   

Thus, I view the EIA's estimate as a "high" estimate - and an optimistic one at that. 

As always, I will cite WWII as an example of what's possible.  The world economy is capable of incredible change given the right stimulus.  We're not operating anywhere near our limits; the right Black Swan could push us there. 

As a further example, I'll cite the incredible demand destruction that occurred during the last oil crises.  It's quite obvious that oil demand plummets at high prices.  Oil demand is quite elastic, with some delay.  If anyone is interested, I can list the technological and operating levers consumers can pull to destroy oil demand.