Trump's China Strategy: Death By a Thousand Paper Cuts

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

28 minutes ago, remake it said:

Why not show the many times before 1971 that gold prices moved commensurate with economic growth rather than it magically be locked into the same price for decades while the value of most other commodities increased vastly?

Umm no. 

The official exchange was $35. Other countries such as Britain had their own gold markets (it was illegal for Americans to own gold) and that was different than the official exchange rate. Not to mention the Federal Reserve playing its own games. 

Assuming you read the basic link above, this one is Marginally more advanced

[remake it + 288]

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Umm no. 

The official exchange was $35. Other countries such as Britain had their own gold markets (it was illegal for Americans to own gold) and that was different than the official exchange rate. Not to mention the Federal Reserve playing its own games. 

If you believe that you preordain the price of a commodity for decades ahead such that its value is immutable then it defies the most basic principles of economics in a capitalist system.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

47 minutes ago, remake it said:

If you believe that you preordain the price of a commodity for decades ahead such that its value is immutable then it defies the most basic principles of economics in a capitalist system.

Did you read the link? Don't blame me for Bretton Woods, I promise, I wasn't even born then

[remake it + 288]

7 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Did you read the link? Don't blame me for Bretton Woods, I promise, I wasn't even born then

Then what was your initial point was about given that BW allowed exchange of foreign currencies to gold at fixed $35 thereby depleting US of significant quantities of its gold reserves?

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

23 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Sharma I can only guess at your education on these subjects. You didn't do yourself any favors on getting Bretton Woods completely backwards. I'll admit to a bit of prejudice therefore in considering your opinions. 

There simply wasn't enough gold in the world to continue to support Bretton Woods, let alone in the US. You do understand the concept of unsustainable no? Without gold the dollar "floats" as do all the other world currencies. How "well" it floats is dependent on multiple factors. Being a superpower helps, but we're not the kind of superpower that, for instance China would be. Just look how they treat their own people and imagine how they'd treat you if you got in their way.

That's why I can always spot a good little people's army soldier like you.  Cheers sir 

Talking trash and then saying that a person is uneducated is simply an act of digression. Wise people rely on logic rather than memory to make choices. I may have got confused with Bretton Woods signing and annulment but I have been on the point when it came to conceptual clarity. This matters the most.

I know Bretton Wodds was unsustainable. USA even banned gold possession with its citizens in 1930s. So, clearly, USA knew the unsustainability of gold to currency scheme even before it signed the Bretton Woods agreement. But USA still pegged gold to dollar to attract European countries to take USA loans and become dependent on USA economy and thus extend USA hegemony. USA always intended to betray this promise of gold pegging. I am not claiming that Bretton Woods was sustainable. I am pointing at Bretton Woods to show how USA has been the worst country when it comes to transparency and reliability of currency. This is directly in contravention of your claims of transparency and reliability of US$.

Before talking of Chinese treatment of its people and freedom,read about McCarthyism, anti-communist law and banning of communist organisations and mass arrest and firing from jobs in 1950s. Also read about discrimination towards blacks and refusing voting rights to blacks, initially officially and afterwards unofficially by putting several restrictions till the black rights movement started in 1960s. Chinese people negotiate and reason well and don't attack arbitrarily just because they can. That is the advantage of having a meritocratic bureaucracy where the leaders are chosen based on intelligence. USA has many poor charactered and less intelligent people in decision making chain due to effects of "networking" and other favouritism who cause lot of problems to people simply because they lack decency.

By the way, I am an Indian, not Chinese. Trying to be oversmart does not make you actually smart.

Edited December 11, 2019 by kshithij Sharma

[Papillon + 485]

2 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

By the way, I am an Indian, not Chinese. Trying to be oversmart does not make you actually smart.

I would have thought that was obvious from your name sir with respect, but you have highlighted, yet again, that if anybody even vaguely talks badly of the USA, then they must instantly be Chinese, and/or some kind of bot or troll. I have brought this racial bias up here sir on several occasions.

''How can anybody possibly have any negative feelings towards the USA?! They must surely be Chinese''.

The arrogance is quite astonishing in all honesty. There is national pride, and then there is arrogance. Maybe they are from Iraq? Afghanistan? Vietnam? Anywhere destroyed within the Middle East? Take your pick, there are many to choose from, and that's just from the last fifty years. They could even be from within the USA itself, as hard as that seems to believe, or literally any country on the planet. 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Papillon

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/9/2019 at 11:27 PM, DayTrader said:

🤣🤣  @Marcin , you love me, who are you kidding? 

I apologise for having a sense of humour buddy. Forget the questions then. Thought you'd love it. 

Haha you edited it, that's a little less insulting now. Thanks x

Have a feeling Papillon would disagree with this mate.

I am sorry. I forgot about very important aspect of every forum, that is socializing. My enduring, constant, robot-like love for numbers, analysis and statistics looks really odd, even for me, especially when it is presented in the straightforward manner of your latests posts.

I should show some gratitude and actually thank you for this.

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Marcin
type

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

I should show some gratitude and actually thank you for this.

Haha no worries man, I was just messing with you, and Tom's right, I am a coffee addict. But I genuinely thought you would happily answer a load of them, and I actually really like your posts and stats. Was just funny you said 'this thread is about China' like that's a rare thing here and we must strictly keep China to here. 

Anyway, who would win a fight between Trump and Xi ...? What do the stats say?   

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

7 hours ago, Papillon said:

that if anybody even vaguely talks badly of the USA, then they must instantly be Chinese, and/or some kind of bot or troll.

You surely appreciate that this is a ridiculous comment.  All kinds of folks criticize the USA  (and its current leader, Mr. Trump, and for that matter, each leader before him all the way back to Eisenhower).  Just to illustrate, you had Mr. Trudeau of Canada, Mr. Macron of France, Mr. Johnson of Britain, and Mr. Rutte of the Royal Kingdom of the Netherlands, all standing around joking about Mr. Trump and the Americans  (although to his credit it does not appear that Mr. Rutte actually said anything; he appears to be listening intently).  Here they are:

Nobody is suggesting that these critics are Chinese. 

Americans get criticized all day long; it comes with the territory.  Americans typically just roll with it  (I admit that Mr. Trump is remarkably thin-skinned, quite unusual for an American, to be sure).  In my view, criticism is a sign of envy.  Americans tend to be the best at what they do, and others are envious, so they make silly jokes and criticize.  And that's OK, we can handle it.  Part of the game. 

[Papillon + 485]

26 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

You surely appreciate that this is a ridiculous comment. 

Not at all sir, I am referencing this forum and not the political landscape in the real world. Of course I am not suggesting leaders of other nations are Chinese, that is the 'ridiculous comment' with respect. I am talking about here and usavchina.com, the fact the bot must be Chinese, the continuous comparisons with no self reflection, the picking and choosing of aspects of history and so on.

26 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

In my view, criticism is a sign of envy.

Then it would appear sir that the majority of the forum is envious of China.

Edited December 12, 2019 by Papillon

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

26 minutes ago, Papillon said:

43 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

 

Then it would appear sir that the majority of the forum is envious of China.

OK, so I was a bit brief:  I should have totally fleshed it out for you with "Criticism of the USA is a form of envy of the USA."   there, is that better?  

What you do not seem to grasp is that nobody is envious of China.  It is a form of life that Westerners have no desire to emulate.  It is a totalitarian State, with no inalienable rights, and the people there do not have the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.  Basically, in China your life belongs to the State, and they can and will do whatever they want to do with it, including putting you in jail for what you think and if you are some minority in the hinterlands. You eat what they tell you to eat, and you live where they tell you to live, and you have nothing to say about it, and don't try petitioning the government for redress of your grievances, you get social-credit demerits for doing that and will be denied a job and a passport, and go off the List for an apartment. 

The West, starting with America and now to a lesser extent Canada, is disengaging from China.  Lots of the Asian outlier countries are also disengaging, including Taiwan and the  Philippines, as they are threatened with invasion and subjugation at gunpoint.  Nothing like having a gun pointed at you to focus the mind.  The Chinese can go live in their soup,  whether or not the West re-takes Hong Cong and Macau is still up in the air, and China is headed for major economic depression. Nonetheless, the point of concessions is now past, and the USA at least is going to disengage.  And there is nothing the Chinese can do about it. 

Do not expect a "new trade deal" between USA and China.  It is not going to happen.  The US will further disengage, and trans-Pacific trade with China is dead.  All gone.  Just watch.  

[Papillon + 485]

51 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

there, is that better? 

Yes. Much better, thankyou.

51 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

What you do not seem to grasp is that nobody is envious of China.

Of course I do sir, it was merely a semi sarcastic reply to your comment. I actually agree with the majority of your summary. 

51 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

The Chinese can go live in their soup,  whether or not the West re-takes Hong Cong and Macau is still up in the air, and China is headed for major economic depression. Nonetheless, the point of concessions is now past, and the USA at least is going to disengage.  And there is nothing the Chinese can do about it. 

Lovely sentiment. Who do you think will suffer the most here sir? The party that everyone has an issue with, or the everyday people no one has a problem with? I will guess the latter. You seem nice enough so I will take the constant phrase ''the Chinese'' as to hopefully mean the party, rather than how it comes across, when they go and 'live in their soup' and realise there is 'nothing they can do about a major depression'. Either way, it will be the average citizen arguably that suffers the very most and you seem to be relishing that and almost boasting. 

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Americans get criticized all day long; it comes with the territory.

With respect sir, maybe phrases like ''they can all go live in their soup'' don't help? 

Edited December 12, 2019 by Papillon

[remake it + 288]

36 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

OK, so I was a bit brief:  I should have totally fleshed it out for you with "Criticism of the USA is a form of envy of the USA."   there, is that better?  

Hundreds of millions of Chinese have been lifted out of poverty in recent decades and last year about 150 million traveled to another country so they are overwhelmingly optimistic about where their leadership is taking them and this most definitely cannot be said of the USA.

[Papillon + 485]

......

Edited December 12, 2019 by Papillon
I don't know what I have done. I am old.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 minutes ago, Papillon said:

Utterly pathetic. 

We don't have those threads because this is OILPRICE and we discuss oil, not homeless people and gun laws.  You want to go do that, you  might try some place such as CNN or Russia Today.  Cheers. 

[Papillon + 485]

I'm afraid my post has vanished sir, is there a way of retrieving it? I was editing and 'pooof', I am hopeless. Well I assume it can still be read by others then anyway? In reply though, the majority of threads concern China, this is not exactly oil or the price of oil related, much like impeachment, or a teenager winning a contest, or Hong Kong, or most things here in geopolitics?

Do you see my point therefore that in general US domestic issues are very very rarely discussed (impeachment for example), but never actual faults or things with no solution let us say, but it is fine to discuss the issues of other countries? This is all I have tried to get across, on several threads now for fear of repeating myself again and again. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

5 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

What you do not seem to grasp is that nobody is envious of China.  It is a form of life that Westerners have no desire to emulate.  It is a totalitarian State, with no inalienable rights, and the people there do not have the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.  Basically, in China your life belongs to the State, and they can and will do whatever they want to do with it, including putting you in jail for what you think and if you are some minority in the hinterlands. You eat what they tell you to eat, and you live where they tell you to live, and you have nothing to say about it, and don't try petitioning the government for redress of your grievances, you get social-credit demerits for doing that and will be denied a job and a passport, and go off the List for an apartment. 

As a "Westerner" I have no desire to live in a totalitarian state and couldn't live without the perceived freedoms that Western countries offer to their peoples.

That being said having experienced the culture of China personally many times with hundreds of different Chinese people over a number of years it is strange to me that they do not feel "controlled" they do believe their lives have changed hugely for the better in many ways and more importantly they believe unequivocally that the state is looking after their best interests and that China will be the hegemony in the near future.

Their perception rightly or wrongly of what China is could not be further from the picture painted in the West. Call this indoctrination, censorship etc etc but whatever we may want to label it, that is their perception whether we like it or not. Whilst this exists and is not challenged by the people China will continue to become stronger.

The people are unbelievably welcoming and proud of what their country is doing. My issue is with technological advancements and increased travel allowed for Chinese citizens, how long can the state continue to censor the outside world before there is a backlash from the people which will make HK look like an upset toddler in comparison?

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

As a "Westerner" I have no desire to live in a totalitarian state and couldn't live without the perceived freedoms that Western countries offer to their peoples.

In USA, laws can be made by legislators quite arbitrarily. In 1950s, USA brought anti communist laws, making thousands of arrests of communists, banning communist party, even forcing the perceived communists out of jobs. USA in 1930s banned people from owning gold. Then there was anti-alcohol law. This shows that USA is a totalitarian state run by a set of people who are popularly called as "illuminati" or "regime". The two party system is nothing but management of dissent by putting the blame on the current president or party and simply get another party in power for the next term. Both parties are run by the same set of people but show 2 faces like "good-cop & bad-cop" practice.

China at least, is honest about its governance style and does not indulge in deception by telling fake news to its people. USA style of governance where it emulates the church which convinced the people that earth is flat and other superstition to keep them in control. Chinese honesty is far superior than such double games by USA.

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

What you do not seem to grasp is that nobody is envious of China.  It is a form of life that Westerners have no desire to emulate.  It is a totalitarian State, with no inalienable rights, and the people there do not have the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.  Basically, in China your life belongs to the State, and they can and will do whatever they want to do with it, including putting you in jail for what you think and if you are some minority in the hinterlands. You eat what they tell you to eat, and you live where they tell you to live, and you have nothing to say about it, and don't try petitioning the government for redress of your grievances, you get social-credit demerits for doing that and will be denied a job and a passport, and go off the List for an apartment. 

As a "Westerner" I have no desire to live in a totalitarian state and couldn't live without the perceived freedoms that Western countries offer to their peoples.

That being said having experienced the culture of China personally many times with hundreds of different Chinese people over a number of years it is strange to me that they do not feel "controlled" they do believe their lives have changed hugely for the better in many ways and more importantly they believe unequivocally that the state is looking after their best interests and that China will be the hegemony in the near future.

Their perception rightly or wrongly of what China is could not be further from the picture painted in the West. Call this indoctrination, censorship etc etc but whatever we may want to label it, that is their perception whether we like it or not. Whilst this exists and is not challenged by the people China will continue to become stronger.

The people are unbelievably welcoming and proud of what their country is doing. My issue is with technological advancements and increased travel allowed for Chinese citizens, how long can the state continue to censor the outside world before there is a backlash from the people which will make HK look like an upset toddler in comparison?

China only censors Western political opinions, not information and knowledge. Since internet is dominated by USA due to USA's first mover advantage in semiconductor, China is having to censor internet to prevent USA from misusing its dominance. Chinese people find its government to be reasonable as the government does not lie to its people and hence people are willing to make right sacrifices for greater good.

Chinese society is more social in nature compared to western society. As a result, people understand the importance of adjusting and compromising for greater good of society. The exposure to outside world will not make Chinese turn against their government as Chinese never wanted individual rights over collective well-being of society. So, Chinese stability will not be threatened by outside exposure.

The biggest difference between USA system of governance and Chinese is that in China, the government openly requests its people to sacrifice some comforts to improve their civilisation in the future. So, people find the discomforts justified. In west, however, the government continually lies by giving short term promises and does several subversive work behind the scenes. So, people will be upset if some of their short term privileges are taken away openly.

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

As a "Westerner" I have no desire to live in a totalitarian state and couldn't live without the perceived freedoms that Western countries offer to their peoples.

In USA, laws can be made by legislators quite arbitrarily. In 1950s, USA brought anti communist laws, making thousands of arrests of communists, banning communist party, even forcing the perceived communists out of jobs. USA in 1930s banned people from owning gold. Then there was anti-alcohol law. This shows that USA is a totalitarian state run by a set of people who are popularly called as "illuminati" or "regime". The two party system is nothing but management of dissent by putting the blame on the current president or party and simply get another party in power for the next term. Both parties are run by the same set of people but show 2 faces like "good-cop & bad-cop" practice.

China at least, is honest about its governance style and does not indulge in deception by telling fake news to its people. USA style of governance where it emulates the church which convinced the people that earth is flat and other superstition to keep them in control. Chinese honesty is far superior than such double games by USA.

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

What you do not seem to grasp is that nobody is envious of China.  It is a form of life that Westerners have no desire to emulate.  It is a totalitarian State, with no inalienable rights, and the people there do not have the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.  Basically, in China your life belongs to the State, and they can and will do whatever they want to do with it, including putting you in jail for what you think and if you are some minority in the hinterlands. You eat what they tell you to eat, and you live where they tell you to live, and you have nothing to say about it, and don't try petitioning the government for redress of your grievances, you get social-credit demerits for doing that and will be denied a job and a passport, and go off the List for an apartment. 

As a "Westerner" I have no desire to live in a totalitarian state and couldn't live without the perceived freedoms that Western countries offer to their peoples.

That being said having experienced the culture of China personally many times with hundreds of different Chinese people over a number of years it is strange to me that they do not feel "controlled" they do believe their lives have changed hugely for the better in many ways and more importantly they believe unequivocally that the state is looking after their best interests and that China will be the hegemony in the near future.

Their perception rightly or wrongly of what China is could not be further from the picture painted in the West. Call this indoctrination, censorship etc etc but whatever we may want to label it, that is their perception whether we like it or not. Whilst this exists and is not ch

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

19 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

China only censors Western political opinions, not information and knowledge. Since internet is dominated by USA due to USA's first mover advantage in semiconductor, China is having to censor internet to prevent USA from misusing its dominance. Chinese people find its government to be reasonable as the government does not lie to its people and hence people are willing to make right sacrifices for greater good.

I think this is looking at the situation in China with rose tinted glasses on, dont you??

So China only uses censorship of the internet because of USA's misuse?? really?? 

Do you honestly think that or are you just joking with me?

Please try to get some rational perspective on the debate at hand, rather than a blinkered one sided appraisal!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Chinese people find its government to be reasonable as the government does not lie to its people and hence people are willing to make right sacrifices for greater good.

Um ...

[remake it + 288]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I think this is looking at the situation in China with rose tinted glasses on, dont you??

So China only uses censorship of the internet because of USA's misuse?? really?? 

Do you honestly think that or are you just joking with me?

Please try to get some rational perspective on the debate at hand, rather than a blinkered one sided appraisal!

Mr Sharma made many valid points and one has only to look at what posters here link to as their sources of knowledge about the world to conclude that their diets of bullshit are excreted through their keyboards.

Edited December 12, 2019 by remake it
boldness

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

14 minutes ago, remake it said:

Mr Sharma made many valid points and one has only to look at what posters here link to as their sources of knowledge about the world to conclude that their diets of bullshit are excreted through their keyboards.

Damn the bot is back

can we have the handler back please as he/she is more fun?

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

18 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

You surely appreciate that this is a ridiculous comment.  All kinds of folks criticize the USA  (and its current leader, Mr. Trump, and for that matter, each leader before him all the way back to Eisenhower).  Just to illustrate, you had Mr. Trudeau of Canada, Mr. Macron of France, Mr. Johnson of Britain, and Mr. Rutte of the Royal Kingdom of the Netherlands, all standing around joking about Mr. Trump and the Americans  (although to his credit it does not appear that Mr. Rutte actually said anything; he appears to be listening intently).  Here they are:

 And that's OK, we can handle it.  Part of the game. 

"didn't expect that reaction, but that's OK." 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN2jqTilLOM

Tell a lie enough times you might start to believe it yourself.

[Marcin + 519]

12 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

As a "Westerner" I have no desire to live in a totalitarian state and couldn't live without the perceived freedoms that Western countries offer to their peoples.

That being said having experienced the culture of China personally many times with hundreds of different Chinese people over a number of years 1.it is strange to me that they do not feel "controlled" 2. they do believe their lives have changed hugely for the better in many ways and more importantly 3. they believe unequivocally that the state is looking after their best interests and that 4. China will be the hegemony in the near future.

Their perception rightly or wrongly of what China is 5. could not be further from the picture painted in the West. Call this indoctrination, censorship etc etc but whatever we may want to label it, that is their perception whether we like it or not. Whilst this exists and is not challenged by the people China will continue to become stronger.

The people are 6.unbelievably welcoming and proud of what their country is doing. My issue is with 7.technological advancements and increased travel allowed for Chinese citizens, how long can the state 8.continue to censor the outside world before there is a backlash from the people which will make HK look like an upset toddler in comparison?

This is the best comment about Chinese society I have seen at oilprice.

1. China has been through fast but evolutionary changes, one step at a time. At the moment they only cannot criticize: the Party and its role, top country bosses (like Politburo), all the set up of Chinese dictatorship. In the last 60 years they changed more than in the previous 2,000. Nobody tells them what to wear, eat, where to live, restrict most travel, how to live, they are protesting and changing policies of authorities, but know the boundaries, look above. People accept the reality so censorship was not the problem.

2. They are right. Latest 70 years of Chinese history, and especially latest 40 years is the history of huge success. There was no such achievement on the similar scale in the history of mankind. US needed 3 times more for such a change. Japan had strong help from US and is 12 times smaller etc. Chinese success was proved with numbers many times.

3. State really does look after their best interests (if they do not diminish control over society) but at the same time controls them like shepherd his sheep. Economy structure was always optimized to achieve full employment. China has much broader definition of public goods. Externalities are taken under consideration for the benefit of the whole society, monopolies are curbed. Army was restructured and modernized. Society is managed as to prevent widespread slums (very wise hukou system, only developing country). Birth control prevented hunger and fate of India, Nigeria and Ethiopia. First class infrastructure.

4. China will be largest economy, I have not found any statement to the contrary by ANY scholar in the economics field. The most pessimistic scenarios with expectation of many Chinese blunders predict 20,000 USD/capita, still 35% more than US economy. Xi Jinping administration largest mistake in economy field up to date was tightening of credit supply to private enterprises (especially small and middle).

5. The West and China both have interest in painting gloomy picture of China and Chinese economy. Keep low profile and bide your time. Chinese Ministry of Propaganda works hard to peddle nonsense of imminent Chinese crisis, but only abroad. US media and politicians need foreign, Chinese threat to do not solve domestic problems.

6. The longest continuous culture&civilization in the world. Most populous country since census in about  50 AD (57 million people, more than Roman Empire). For 80% of known history the largest economy.  Sinicization of neighbours and conquered nations. And latest 40 years is the best period in their history.

7&8 What are the reasons that cause that they would not protest in the next 20 years ? (Apart from total control by the state enhanced by modern technology). China needs very strong central government. In the past this allowed them to build Grand Canal and feed the people, or the Great Wall and protect them, or create many largest encyclopedias only recently beaten by Wikipedia.

What is the alternative ?

- partition of China (US dream, mentioned in many sources), anarchy, starvation&death (there is memory of tens of millions dying out of hunger, and tens of millions dying out of foreign invasions/civil wars). China has 1,400 million people and only 0.1 hectare (0.001 square km) of arable land per capita. There is not enough food in the world, even if everybody is willing to sell surplus to China to feed the country in the case of substantially decreased crops during 2 years. Without significant effort of irrigation farm yields would me much smaller. China needs to take under consideration planetary constraints in resources.

- Since Huawei embargo with the little help of Chinese propaganda (and Donald Trump) ordinary Chinese became aware of the conflict with the United States.

My personal experience of living in totalitarian country is that until there is meat and vodka and you have the flat to live in, not many people are protesting, and those could be easily suppressed and put into jail.