Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 BitcoinBrooklyn5m $UGAZ wiped out, now I know why they call it the widow maker ReckHerSystems3m @BitcoinBrooklyn im down 2k and cant even sell until 9am thanks to robinhood. Suicide sounds wonderful right now shmuelashkenazinow $UGAZ is there a hope for my 18, average? Mark696919m $UGAZ 40% down in a week Gypsy8612:05 AM $UGAZ Do yourselves a favor and don't look at the latest GFS. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 Through a Darwinian survival winnowing funnel, natural gas investors have evolved to be hyper-focused on weather, attempting to capture short-term moves for profits. [Seeking Alpha] -LOL. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 (edited) Cajo04023m $UGAZ No reason to think this is even close to done tanking. Worst investment I’ve ever made. STOP posting your stupid weather reports!! They mean nothing! This is going single digits and never returning. Nightmare $14 avg. Someone please tell me why I’m wrong. Monk_now $UGAZ this is stupid Edited November 29, 2019 by Zhong Lu 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 (edited) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB6puO44q34&t=517s Good song to play in the background, btw. Don't know if it's Celtic or Irish, but it's some hag cackling to an orchestra and a chorus of melancholic people. Appropriate for the capitulation days. Malinnnow $UGAZ I am down 4k as of today fuck it rookieznow $UGAZ I'm fcked SkeletorsSockDrawer2m @YourSelfDestruction yeah but I’m pretty fed up. I’m gonna jump to dgaz and try to make up my losses Red_Bullishnow @SkeletorsSockDrawer @YourSelfDestruction I wouldn’t jump in dgaz iver 150 dude SkeletorsSockDrawernow @Red_Bullish @YourSelfDestruction I doubt I will I’m just frustrated Edited November 29, 2019 by Zhong Lu 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 (edited) Monk_now $UGAZ please just go back to 12 n thank you krohr1now $UGAZ What a disastrous play here - just wow - I wouldn't even venture to guess where the bottom is here. optionstr8der2m $UGAZ Down about 31%. Asking myself why I didn't go with DGAZ and why still holding on to trash!?lol Gizmiznow $UGAZ fuck me man can’t even dump mine until next week Piloltrollnow $UGAZ my avg 12,56 . What should I do? vnunnallynow $UGAZ OMG Malinnnow $UGAZ this is scam fuck!!! Edited November 29, 2019 by Zhong Lu 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
zbest1966 + 10 RG November 29, 2019 This is crazy NG is normally higher than this at time of the year. Someone explain to me what is going on? This does not sit well with NG companies on the brink on bankruptcies. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 https://www.natgasweather.com/ 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 (edited) Bojack_moneynow $UGAZ I'm holding and getting punched in the d*&%" with this... and even I'm so f&*?*/ tired of hearing "This is the bottom" or "about to turn" or "it's gonna break up biggly and more violent"... just enough man. We lost. Just gotta find a good exit that's all. ahulmenow $UGAZ All out with -16% loss... Edited November 29, 2019 by Zhong Lu 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 (edited) Ok. Jumping in!!!! Let's do it. UGAZ @ 9.7 [EDIT: Cough. Small position. Cough.] Not going to FOMO. Out. Edited November 29, 2019 by Zhong Lu 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 snirlulanow $UGAZ Why God WHY? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 29, 2019 (edited) And I think that's an appropriate note to end today on. If you want to learn more about the joys of trading, read more of my posts! You'll learn a lot. I guarantee it. Edited November 29, 2019 by Zhong Lu 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 November 29, 2019 I sympathize with all those who have made investments in natural gas and related technology! Natural gas should be the choice for transportation as well as heating. I mainly blame China for using coal rather than natural gas, but also any other nation doing the same. We need to use our best fossil fuel and biogas. Not more expensive options. People are being fed a long line of renewable price misinformation. They will all suffer from the price and the coal pollution. Wind and solar cannot do the job at the right price. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Martin + 31 November 29, 2019 My position is getting hammered but I'm staying in. I don't see any point in taking a loss right now, I have even broken the cardinal rule and taken small bites to average down and have another bid in if the price drops another ten percent... who can say what will happen, anything is possible. I don't know whether traders are looking at the warmer weather forecast for the US eastern seaboard over the next two weeks, not sure if it was thin volume over Thanksgiving, but whatever it was, people could not seem to give away their Nat Gas fast enough. As I said on another post, I am trading this as a seasonal play so when it looks like Spring is ahead, that's when I am out, but we're not even really into Winter yet so if people want to offer me dirt cheap Nat Gas, well, I will break a few rules and take some small bites to average down. I never normally trade Nat Gas as I know next to nothing about it (another broken rule) and I never trade seasonally (broken rule), and really I can do without the all the pain of red ink, but there is blood on the streets and that's encouraging. I'm hanging in there and I am somewhat ridiculously expecting a spike before Christmas, yes, I am optimistic by nature. It looks like there is no way in hell that is possible, but a lot can happen in three or four weeks. My position is already hammered, selling gives me a loss with no upside, by hanging in and playing it forward there is the possibility, albeit slim, of some upside. With this trade I am also trying to emulate some ideas I read in "The Art of Execution", by Lee Freeman-Shor. Sometimes there is no growth without pain... and well, there's plenty of that going around in Nat Gas at the moment. Happy Thanksgiving weekend, y'all 😀 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 30, 2019 Good luck, Martin. Hope you can make it back (or that your position is small). 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R November 30, 2019 Thought I read on seeking alpha that you take a hit every forward contract that UGAZ or DGAZ flips into (forward contract) . Therefor if you hold too long despite the price correction the capital is still less. Or wouldn't anyone buy in summer for winter pricing and buy in winter for summer pricing? Can anyone verify that ? ... I've read about it but never traded it. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Martin + 31 November 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said: Thought I read on seeking alpha that you take a hit every forward contract that UGAZ or DGAZ flips into (forward contract) . Therefor if you hold too long despite the price correction the capital is still less. Or wouldn't anyone buy in summer for winter pricing and buy in winter for summer pricing? Can anyone verify that ? ... I've read about it but never traded it. I have never traded UGAZ or DGAZ so you'd need to refer to the issuers documentation to determine the mechanics of how they mirror the underlying instrument's price exposure. That said, my assumption is that you are probably right as there are various contributing factors as to why "despite the price correction the capital is still less". The easiest way to try to determine this is to look at the various fees charged by the issuer; these fees, in theory, should be the maximum that investors are charged for being in the funds but leverage, price slippage, time delays, imperfect markets, gaps in pricing, etc, can all lead to... distortions/paying more. The easy way to think about it is that no-one does anything for free, so if you are in an ETF which is attempting to track/mirror/follow or leverage from an underlying future, index, or other instrument, then you're paying to play and the issuer will take their cut irrespective of the price movements, and, as you allude to, the longer you're playing, the more you are paying. Of course you could always just consider buying the underlying future (or whatever the ETF tracks) but that comes with it's own set of risks too. Also, be careful with Seeking Alpha and do your own thinking and your own due diligence, you'll find the full spectrum of opinions on Seeking Alpha and they cannot all be right, can they? The second part of your post asks, "Or wouldn't anyone buy in summer for winter pricing and buy in winter for summer pricing?" to which the answer is yes, all the time, in fact that was one of the reasons that futures (and options) were created way back in the mists of time, genuine hedging of seasonally produced crops; of course people couldn't resist using them for price speculation and then they wanted more toys to play with so now there's derivatives over just about every commodity imaginable and plenty of unimaginable synthetics as well. The various north American exchanges have excellent educational resources and courses, many of them free, and being exchange linked, they have a legal responsibility to present correct information (unlike Seeking Alpha). The Options Industry Council is one that springs to mind: https://www.optionseducation.org/ Anyway, very best of luck with your endeavours. Important disclaimer: The above commentary is simply my opinion, it is not financial information or advice. It is imperative that no reliance be taken in any way, or for any reason, on anything in any of my posts, on anything quoted in any my posts or on anything linked in any of my posts, not ever. No information, no advice, nothing, nada, zip. In fact, I should probably add that as a forum signature... the world really is fubar, so it probably isn't a bad idea... 😃 1 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190 November 30, 2019 6 hours ago, Martin said: In fact, I should probably add that as a forum signature... the world really is fubar, so it probably isn't a bad idea... Short term trading? Yea, that is how I would describe it. Besides, my brain does not work that fast 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Martin + 31 November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said: Short term trading? Yea, that is how I would describe it. Besides, my brain does not work that fast Well, life is subjective. In my post above the one you quoted I allude to my NatGas exposure being what I termed a 'seasonal play', so getting out, I assume, when Spring is around the corner. Let's call it a month or two and if that for you is 'short term' so be it. Short term for me is intraday, a day or two, maybe a week or two, depending on the move I am trying to catch. So many of the long term fundamentals have gone out of the window with QE, negative interest rates and algos, I wouldn't have a clue which longer term plays are viable... and then, we know only if they have worked whenever we get there, whenever that is. So how long or short is a piece of string...? We cannot really say. This NatGas folly is long term for me, but as I say above, I am trying to implememnt some strategies from 'The Art of Execution' by Lee Freeman-Shor, can't say I am enjoying the experience thus far, but I like the methodology, I like trying new things and you're never too old to keep an open mind. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26512908-the-art-of-execution Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 30, 2019 (edited) 11 hours ago, Rob Kramer said: Thought I read on seeking alpha that you take a hit every forward contract that UGAZ or DGAZ flips into (forward contract) . Therefor if you hold too long despite the price correction the capital is still less. Or wouldn't anyone buy in summer for winter pricing and buy in winter for summer pricing? Can anyone verify that ? ... I've read about it but never traded it. Yes, it decays. If you want to buy and hold natural gas, either trade the futures directly or use UNG (which decays, but barely). UGAZ and DGAZ are for short term trades, preferably at price extremes. When it comes to Seeking Alpha, follow HFIR and Bluegold. HFIR is the more conservative one, always with tight stop losses and jumping in only in the middle of a confirmed trend. Somehow he ended up making money trading natural gas by going LONG throughout all of this year [one of the worst years for natty prices, ever]. He posts his results for everyone to see. Edited November 30, 2019 by Zhong Lu 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 November 30, 2019 (edited) Another excellent resource: https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/NG*0 Follow the red line (commercials). Do not trade with the blue line (MM) when it goes below -200k. Edited November 30, 2019 by Zhong Lu 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R November 30, 2019 Thanks for the info on trading ugaz and dgaz and trading in general . And yes it's pretty funny to google seeking alpha and have opposing headlines. The benefit is you get the story from both sides so you can pick your own and understand if it doesn't work out. At least they have useful data in their analysis motly fool is worse just elndelss buy this now with the writer never owning the stock mentioned and following dont buy this within the week lol. And of the stocks I have that are the biggest opportunities in my opinion they rarely get any coverage while enbridge gets 3 stories a day lol. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Martin + 31 December 1, 2019 14 hours ago, Zhong Lu said: Another excellent resource: https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/NG*0 Follow the red line (commercials). Do not trade with the blue line (MM) when it goes below -200k. Thanks Zhong, this is very interesting. Many thanks for the link 👍 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Martin + 31 December 1, 2019 On 11/30/2019 at 1:28 AM, zbest1966 said: This is crazy NG is normally higher than this at time of the year. Someone explain to me what is going on? This does not sit well with NG companies on the brink on bankruptcies. I have no idea as I am new to trading this market, but if you have a look at the link Zhong posted earlier and then look at the 3 year and 5 year chart, it looks as if we have just hit a 'higher low', so if we are lucky then we are at the start of another period of rotation higher. But really, it's anyone's guess and seemingly the world is awash with LNG, so prices could go much lower, although I hope not. https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/NG*0 Disclaimer: I am long NatGas, so yeah, praying for some serious upside 😉 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 December 2, 2019 (edited) There are a lot of very confused people today. UGAZ opened up 10% at 6 am, and now it's back to 0% in a matter of two hours. For a short period of time BOTH the 3x bear and 3x bull etns were in the red. Someone's f-ing with the ETNs. Was on sidelines. Staying on sidelines. I'm just as confused as everyone else. Edited December 2, 2019 by Zhong Lu Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Martin + 31 December 3, 2019 (edited) 22 hours ago, Zhong Lu said: There are a lot of very confused people today. UGAZ opened up 10% at 6 am, and now it's back to 0% in a matter of two hours. For a short period of time BOTH the 3x bear and 3x bull etns were in the red. Someone's f-ing with the ETNs. Was on sidelines. Staying on sidelines. I'm just as confused as everyone else. Yeah, difficult to know what was happening there, seemed like some attempt to manipulate, but hard to see from the outside. Slight bounce today, enough to give encouragement to the longs (like me) but it's not really moving the needle yet. There's been quite a few refinery fires this year, maybe a natural gas plant fire or pipeline rupture could help matters...? Just kidding, we don't need that, some prolonged icy weather will do the trick 😀 Edited December 3, 2019 by Martin Fixed tense in final paragraph. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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