Quotes from the Widowmaker

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Adding to 1/3 position in UGAZ [bought yesterday EOD- for proof check Stocktwits], time to buy more VXX. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Martin + 31]

I think there is a period of consolidation in NatGas, difficult to say how long it will last, before the big next leg up.

It could be blind optimism, but with some extreme cold weather and a few curved balls, the possibility exists for us to approach or surpass three dollars:

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM

 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

2.5 first.  We'll see if we get there.  Also "weather permitting" means "roll of the dice."  

But I believe there's more upside then downside due to the massive short position vs. natty.  

[Martin + 31]

24 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

2.5 first.  We'll see if we get there.  Also "weather permitting" means "roll of the dice."  

But I believe there's more upside then downside due to the massive short position vs. natty.  

Agreed.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Well that was a wash. Nothing happened.  I'm out.  

[Zhong Lu + 845]

I walk away from the computer for 12 hours and I miss a 10% gain. Great.  

 

Stupid UGAZ. I hate you.  

Edited December 4, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Martin + 31]

10 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

I walk away from the computer for 12 hours and I miss a 10% gain. Great.  

 

Stupid UGAZ. I hate you.  

There's no doubt that there are short term trading opportunities in NatGas, but it's a nightmare catching these moves sometimes.

Looking at the chart shows highs on 12 Jul, 16 Sep and 5 Nov, followed by lows and then periods of consolidation which are far longer in time than it takes to get to the peak. I think we are seeing higher highs and higher lows and are due for another leg up after this period of consolidation which I hope is this month but looking at the chart, these valleys take their time, so it could even be January. If I had sensed this rather obvious pattern (not sure why I didn't see it initially) then I would not have bought in so high and probably rode it down a while... but then we all have 20/20 vision in hindsight, eh?

🙁

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM

(click "View full chart" at right, select 6 months view)

Edited December 4, 2019 by Martin
Fixed error, changed term to "higher lows" (previously 'lower lows') in line 5.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Back in again. People I trust says buy.  Whatever, it's only money.  Going to stop staring at this and disappear for a while.  MACD just crossed over. Weather is supportive though not super great.  Again, there's too many shorts. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Scalped a few percent. Out. 

[Martin + 31]

Had a low bid in hoping for a temporary reversal for it to get picked up in the European session... nope, must have been reasonably range-bound last night. I don't mind adding to my position at these lower levels but as I think we'll be treading water for a couple of weeks, I want the market to come to me to maximise the averaging down. Little bites, nothing major.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Death. 

But I'm fine since I've already sold yesterday.  Tee hee hee.  

Seems like we're on the way to test low 2.3.  

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Doesn't look good for Monday.  

[Martin + 31]

15 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Doesn't look good for Monday.  

 

Yeah, it looks grim. Weather forecast looks like it won't help the longs either:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml