Shale Oil Fiasco

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

remake

No idea why 'coffeeguyzz be ... pisste off'.

Antero's stock price impacts me directly not one iota.

Nor does any of the upstream/midstream/downstream companies' financial status as my direct involvement with hydrocarbons barely extends beyond my monthly heating bills and what I pay to fuel up my trucks.

But, please, do not refrain from displaying your profound ignorance as these types of cyber interactions regularly degrade into  what otherwise could (should?) be informative discussions with varying - even opposing - perspectives.

[remake it + 288]

30 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

But, please, do not refrain from displaying your profound ignorance as these types of cyber interactions regularly degrade into  what otherwise could (should?) be informative discussions with varying - even opposing - perspectives.

There are two distinct camps here and one has tried to piss you off but wrt to the thread it's probably the best at this site and those either in the game or out or with skin in it or wanting to dabble will need to distill the previous 20 pages and arrive at some position.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

"There are two distinct camps here and one has tried to piss you off but wrt to the thread it's probably the best at this site and those either in the game or out or with skin in it or wanting to dabble will need to distill the previous 20 pages and arrive at some position."

Welcome to the incomprehensible babble of the Bot.  Even the bot's handlers recognize that they have been outed, so there is this cute little boxing robot out there in the picture circle.  

If anybody can actually make sense of the bot's latest, hey I'm all ears.  total psychobabble.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Jan van Eck

[PE Scott + 563]

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

"There are two distinct camps here and one has tried to piss you off but wrt to the thread it's probably the best at this site and those either in the game or out or with skin in it or wanting to dabble will need to distill the previous 20 pages and arrive at some position."

Welcome to the incomprehensible babble of the Bot.  Even the bot's handlers recognize that they have been outed, so there is this cute little boxing robot out there in the picture circle.  

If anybody can actually make sense of the bot's latest, hey I'm all ears.  total psychobabble.

Yeah, I'm not sure what's going on here. I read it a few times trying to decipher a meaning. I blame everyone else here for getting me sucked back in. Damn curiosity!

 I like the boxing robot, makes me smile. After all, if you're going to be infamous you might as well own it. 

[remake it + 288]

1 hour ago, PE Scott said:

Yeah, I'm not sure what's going on here. I read it a few times trying to decipher a meaning. I blame everyone else here for getting me sucked back in. Damn curiosity!

Would you like commas to help decipher it as it was only a mildly complex sentence?

[Boat + 1,315]

The rise in nat gas is growing rather fast but not what I would call exploding only because infracture is very labor intensive and expensive. If not for that coal would be dying much faster and nat gas expanding faster.
Those low prices producers hate so much has hurt notably Russia the most. A new pipeline will maybe pay the interest on the cost of infrastructure? How cheap can piped gas go?
For all the impacts of fracking just think how much money the world has saved on that energy cost and presumably savings for at least a decade as infrastructure expands.

So yea for now this is an oil site but should be a nat gas site. Oil will live forever, just like the hot air ballon lost out to the plane. Every golf tourney has one.

[Mike Shellman + 548]

On 12/18/2019 at 10:14 PM, remake it said:

Weeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!             those coffeeguyzz will be truly pisste off.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2020 by Mike Shellman

[remake it + 288]

6 minutes ago, Mike Shellman said:

Coffee won't be pissed off; we go way back and understand each other. He is always respectful. He is interested in do-dads and gadgets, the moral value of producing America's hydrocarbon resources; I use do dads and gadgets every day and oil and natural gas production is a business to me; that is the ONLY way I can view it. For shale oil, and shale gas (in almost as bad a financial condition as shale oil), the business must be successful to be sustainable long term. Its not. Its lasted as long as it has for one reason only...abundant, low interest, outside capital. In other words, it works on credit, including two and three mortgages on the same house, so to speak, and kicking the debt can down the road as often as possible. 

Those in the "camp" that ignore shale's dismal economic plight I find generally are always benefiting from it somehow. I think it is in the best interest of our country to deal with facts, and the truth. This shale stuff is simply not profitable to extract. It is now burdened with massive levels of debt that will require much, much higher product prices to get out of debt and be able to maintain production levels from net revenue.  

Your  chart showed a downslope skier akin to one on a piste but that might have gone over his head and your reply is greatly appreciated as it continues to confirm that there are some believers and some deceivers (though perhaps not intentionally due to not seeing the bigger picture which you appear to).

Edited December 19, 2019 by remake it
bolded "piste"

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 hours ago, Mike Shellman said:

Those in the "camp" that ignore shale's dismal economic plight I find generally are always benefiting from it somehow. I think it is in the best interest of our country to deal with facts, and the truth. This shale stuff is simply not profitable to extract. It is now burdened with massive levels of debt that will require much, much higher product prices to get out of debt and be able to maintain current production levels from net revenue.  

Where the money is going to come from going forward for this shale thing to keep everybody happy and secure, oil or gas, should be of vital importance to all Americans. It's not a revolution, nor is it a miracle; it is a business. 

True, that. But like all businesses, there will have to be either price appreciation or the whole thing will just end . . . about as suddenly as it began. I see these big numbers coming from the dry gas wells in the Appalachian Basin and muse about how fickle the whole thing is. The reality is, of course, that prior to shale the United States had an almost desperation scarcity of natural gas. In fact, Souki (the gentleman who gathered all the money for the project) put Cheniere together for purposes of natural gas importation. When the terminals were finished just about precisely when Aubrey McClendon was drilling the daylights out of the Haynesville, Souki was in dire straits. The man who called him up and suggested that he "turn them around and make them exportation terminals was none other than . . . Aubrey McClendon. Blackstone had had enough but he got the financing, again with Aubrey's help. 

Prediction: The natural gas boom is NOT going to end. There is incredible global population growth and NG is the cleanest-burning fuel source. People all over the world have gotten hooked on cheap energy. I think the APP Basin will survive. I also think the shale oil basins will survive. Why? Well, because despite the APP Basin and Haynesville being so prolific in the production of pure dry gas, the bulk of the NG being LNG'd is going to come from being a by-product to LTO. The Bakken has the best, though there is less NG (and water) coming up with the LTO. In the Permian, there is one heck of lot of NG (and water) coming back. Shut off NG production and you shut down LNG transport. The network has grown so fast, to so many places that were paying through the nose for piped NG, that if you shut down LNG, the world's factories and economies shut down. 

So, you can accuse me of talking my own book . . . it's of no consequence to me one way or the other. But it's ironic (and maybe even distorted thinking) that I strongly believe the NG by-product will save LTO. The APP Basin and Haynesville--nearly pure gas--will always compete with LTO by-product gas. The price will settle somewhere--I have no idea where--that allows producers and transporters to make a profit. I respectfully disagree with the above comment: I believe the LNG network can only be described as a revolution, and one that will eventually totally destroy coal usage--India and China will pivot soon, and that's 2.9 B people. If Europe persists in this Paris Accord, they'll go bankrupt. Let LNG go seriously begging for one month and the price of NG rises, and along with it, the price of LTO--I think they're that tightly coupled. Now I suppose the pure gas basins could just gear up, but about 2/3 of the NG that is LNG'd comes from the Permian; the slowdown is going to show up as reduced quantities of NG soon. Even with the giant NG wells from the APP, the LNG revolution is here to stay . . . at least until a better, cleaner source comes along . . . and somehow I just don't see that many solar farms and windmills in China and India, certainly not in packed-to-the-gills Europe.

At the risk of sounding like a pessimist, we're going to have a recession some day. When that happens--if it's a mean one--business people all over the world are going to try and survive. LNG will help them do that. These LNG networks are being elaborated so quickly that it's almost as though they're in a race with time . . . which they are. Okay, just my thoughts. This forum is built for divergent views, yes? 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Gerry Maddoux

[PE Scott + 563]

5 hours ago, remake it said:

Would you like commas to help decipher it as it was only a mildly complex sentence?

Sure, punctuation and spelling are key components in clearly communicating. 

[mr rex juras mellon 0]

Just remember Shale oil is  ah aox. there is no oil/molecules or gas vapour in between rocks.

 

 what they foudn out is classified.

for exmaple -i the atmospere they are observing many gases etc.

 

all these are not being revealed. but some fake idea to steal $100 billions known as Shale oil, quantum computing and many more are rollling out _block chain for secure online business etc.

 

all these will be busted. the conspiracy(to cheat/enslvae women,, dominate drugs market)

 is true, lies will be exposed.

It will happen. It iwll start with taknig down of the cLinton's and Obama. no one will be able to guess where the tremor will originate. but these bstrds are finished.

 

[Rob Plant + 2,635]

11 minutes ago, mr rex juras mellon said:

Just remember Shale oil is  ah aox. there is no oil/molecules or gas vapour in between rocks.

 

 what they foudn out is classified.

for exmaple -i the atmospere they are observing many gases etc.

 

all these are not being revealed. but some fake idea to steal $100 billions known as Shale oil, quantum computing and many more are rollling out _block chain for secure online business etc.

 

all these will be busted. the conspiracy(to cheat/enslvae women,, dominate drugs market)

 is true, lies will be exposed.

It will happen. It iwll start with taknig down of the cLinton's and Obama. no one will be able to guess where the tremor will originate. but these bstrds are finished.

 

Are you on crack cocaine?

[PE Scott + 563]

9 minutes ago, mr rex juras mellon said:

Just remember Shale oil is  ah aox. there is no oil/molecules or gas vapour in between rocks.

I wonder what I've been doing all this time then. I'm dissapointed college wasted years of my life with lies like "porosity" and "saturation". I'm sure glad you cleared this up for me.

[Guest]

12 hours ago, remake it said:

There are two distinct camps here, and one has tried to piss you off, but wrt to the thread it's probably the best at this site, and those either in the game or out, or with skin in it, or wanting to dabble, will need to distill the previous 20 pages and arrive at some position.

What a difference a few commas make people ...  I actually agree with this and made the comment about 10 pages back that this whole thread is pro or anti shale and circular arguments. I assume wrt is 'with regard to', so the 'to' after makes no sense, and the bit that says 'the best' is maybe a mistranslation, but other than that I get it. 

Shale guys produce stats and projections and suggest potential technologies ...

Anti shale guys dispute stats and ask for info of the technologies ...

That is it. 20 pages. Just amazing. 

My translation is : ''there are 2 distinct camps here, and 1 has tried to piss you off, but with regard to the thread that's normal at this site (or it's the best example on the forum of circular argument - he may mean that), so those people, whether in or out of the game, will need to sort through the 20 pages of shite and make a decision themselves ...''

Maybe I'm just getting better at talking 'robot' ..? 

11 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

If anybody can actually make sense of the bot's latest, hey I'm all ears.  total psychobabble.

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Guest

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Okay, just my thoughts. This forum is built for divergent views, yes? 

If you're not a Democrat, or Chinese, or an environmentalist, or pro impeachment, or a robot, or an atheist, or anti guns, or vegetarian, or a millennial, or pro shale ... then yeah, pretty ''divergent'' and accepting of opposing views here definitely ... 

@Papillon    I got your back buddy as you are always bang on. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Guest

[Papillon + 485]

1 hour ago, mr rex juras mellon said:

what they foudn out is classified.

for exmaple -i the atmospere they are observing many gases etc.

all these are not being revealed. but some fake idea to steal $100 billions known as Shale oil, quantum computing and many more are rollling out _block chain for secure online business etc.

all these will be busted. the conspiracy(to cheat/enslvae women,, dominate drugs market)

What on Earth are you babbling about sir? Classified information regarding rocks and the non-existent gases between them? The atmosphere is then jumped to and apparently relevant, then you leap back to shale and blockchain, and then almost miraculously to a conspiracy to enslave women and dominate the drugs market?

Not one iota of that made any sense to me sir. You literally jumped from one nonsensical sentence, and even subject, to the next in my opinion. I fear you have seen too many science fiction films or have some bizarre conspiracy fetish. What absolute drivel. Just when I thought this forum could not be more bizarre, you babble this out. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Papillon

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

28 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

My translation is : ''there are 2 distinct camps here, and 1 has tried to piss you off, but with regard to the thread that's normal at this site (or it's the best example on the forum of circular argument - he may mean that), so those people, whether in or out of the game, will need to sort through the 20 pages of shite and make a decision themselves ...''

I suppose I would have to be considered in the "pro-shale" camp . . . and I have too much skin in the game. However, this fellow Douglas Buckland (who is dead set in the other camp) has afforded me every courtesy. He made me think, which is (I am told) good for my aging brain. He made me nervous, because he has been around the horn a few times, and you have to listen to a fellow like that. Same thing with Mr. Coffee. I think he's very bright and much more articulate than he would lead us to believe. But I also learn a lot from your brief comments. I would feel better about my investments if all the people on this site were nodding their heads in the same direction. But I feel better informed from reading these determinedly anti-shale missiles. i like the entire concept of shale. With refracks--maybe a couple or three--I sincerely believe we'll get up to 30% recovery. But that's just me. I've argued the case for it until I sounded like a broken record. Time will tell. One thing I am sure of, and cannot be convinced of the converse, is that the United States is much, much stronger because of shale. We've run on low-cost NG. LTO prices have been on the floor. The economy has risen in no small part due to this. 

[Rob Plant + 2,635]

1 hour ago, mr rex juras mellon said:

Just remember Shale oil is  ah aox. there is no oil/molecules or gas vapour in between rocks.

 

 what they foudn out is classified.

for exmaple -i the atmospere they are observing many gases etc.

 

all these are not being revealed. but some fake idea to steal $100 billions known as Shale oil, quantum computing and many more are rollling out _block chain for secure online business etc.

 

all these will be busted. the conspiracy(to cheat/enslvae women,, dominate drugs market)

 is true, lies will be exposed.

It will happen. It iwll start with taknig down of the cLinton's and Obama. no one will be able to guess where the tremor will originate. but these bstrds are finished.

 

@Papillon I don’t think Alan Turing could decipher this gobbledygook!

[Papillon + 485]

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I don’t think Alan Turing could decipher this gobbledygook!

No human alive can sir. What utter delusion. I thought the thread about Greta Thunberg was odd, then I sit down with a glass of wine to that wisdom. I feel it just needed the word Illuminati or to mention Bigfoot perhaps and it was complete.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Papillon

[Boat + 1,315]

5 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I suppose I would have to be considered in the "pro-shale" camp . . . and I have too much skin in the game. However, this fellow Douglas Buckland (who is dead set in the other camp) has afforded me every courtesy. He made me think, which is (I am told) good for my aging brain. He made me nervous, because he has been around the horn a few times, and you have to listen to a fellow like that. Same thing with Mr. Coffee. I think he's very bright and much more articulate than he would lead us to believe. But I also learn a lot from your brief comments. I would feel better about my investments if all the people on this site were nodding their heads in the same direction. But I feel better informed from reading these determinedly anti-shale missiles. i like the entire concept of shale. With refracks--maybe a couple or three--I sincerely believe we'll get up to 30% recovery. But that's just me. I've argued the case for it until I sounded like a broken record. Time will tell. One thing I am sure of, and cannot be convinced of the converse, is that the United States is much, much stronger because of shale. We've run on low-cost NG. LTO prices have been on the floor. The economy has risen in no small part due to this. 

And don’t forget the huge rise of US FF independence happened mostly on the Obama watch. Using the hundreds of billions allocated by the advice of GW and Paulson, Congress gave Obama push to get solar and wind to a scale to now survive without those billions. Let’s just call him the energy president. 
A big part of Trumps economy and the worlds economy came from cheap energy prices. Yep, it happened on Obama’s watch. Lol

[PE Scott + 563]

44 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

My translation is : ''there are 2 distinct camps here, and 1 has tried to piss you off, but with regard to the thread that's normal at this site (or it's the best example on the forum of circular argument - he may mean that), so those people, whether in or out of the game, will need to sort through the 20 pages of shite and make a decision themselves ...''

Maybe I'm just getting better at talking 'robot' ..? 

Thank you. That actually makes complete sense now. I'm not familiar with the wrt acronym....I thought he was referencing a person, WRS, or something which is where it all fell apart for me. Again, I like to think I'm person "C" in your previous argument and think more of this has to do with a disagreement between what constitutes new technology vs revised technology.....at least the bit I saw being argued heavily before. 

As the rest goes, the price of oil will dictate the growth/success of shale. Costly mistakes were probably made and changes will be made moving forward to avoid them. On my side, completions are becoming more and more efficient, costing less and less money, and are getting dialed in better with respect to the resevoir. So, I don't see the shale patch dying, just adjusting. 

Here again, what constitutes failure? If production drops a million bbls a day and stays there for a long time, is that failure? If current rates are maintained, is that failure? If growth continues, but much slower, is that failure? I'm uncertain where the goalpost are in other people's view.

To me, if the industry can lick its wounds a turn a profit moving forward, that's success. Some companies will fail. Some will be wildly successful. In the end these things have a way of balancing out imo.

[Bob D + 562]

Here's my take 

The viability of shale oil has everything to do with price.  Technology literally produces oil from rock and there is an immense amount of that rock.  The financial side of the business is the problem.  The Oil & Gas industry has the lowest 10 year return of any sector of the stock market.  Capital hates Oil & Gas.  But Oil is $61???  Today it is ... tomorrow it is not.

Spot commodity price equals revenue and the commodity curve equals potential revenue.  That potential revenue has been destroyed.  IMO, backwardated Oil curves are warranted as most traders believe the US, Russia, OPEC and NOC's can bring on immense volumes if prices reached $XX.XX (you pick the price).  US production is a capitalist decision ... money will show up IF it can make a return.  The backwardated Oil curve will not allow capital to flow into oil projects because their is no return.  What are the market forces behind the low pricing out the curve?  Producer selling (hedging) far outweighs Consumer buying (hedging) so who takes up the slack.  Spec length (Hedge Funds, traders) work primarily where the volatility is; the front of the curve.  With no buyers out the curve, banks are forced to make markets for pricing 2-3-4 years out the curve.  With low liquidity and no natural buyers, the banks basically warehouse the position likely taking spread risk for which they require a premium.  Banks will warehouse the positions at the right price.  The prices below are NYMEX values.  Banks likely buy 10-20-30-40-50 cents below value (margin, credit) for collateralized clients.  Good luck finding willing hedge providers if the hedge counterparty is not collateralized by the lease mortgages.  So the world is in a heap of pain in this $61+ oil market.  BTW - it's no better for conventional operators either.  I contend the real problem is financial; capital and price curve.

Spot  61.22

Cal 20  58.39

Cal 21  53.84

Cal 22  51.69

Cal 23  50.99

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

4 hours ago, Boat said:

And don’t forget the huge rise of US FF independence happened mostly on the Obama watch. Using the hundreds of billions allocated by the advice of GW and Paulson, Congress gave Obama push to get solar and wind to a scale to now survive without those billions. Let’s just call him the energy president. 
A big part of Trumps economy and the worlds economy came from cheap energy prices. Yep, it happened on Obama’s watch. Lol

You're going to need a chiropractor to straighten you out of that convoluted "logic".

Cheap fossil fuel energy has precisely nothing whatsoever to do with Obama's energy policies. And to pretend that hundreds of billions SQUANDERED on failed ventures like Solyndra takes real delusional thinking. Carry on sir, you're a credit to your party.  

[Boat + 1,315]

15 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

You're going to need a chiropractor to straighten you out of that convoluted "logic".

Cheap fossil fuel energy has precisely nothing whatsoever to do with Obama's energy policies. And to pretend that hundreds of billions SQUANDERED on failed ventures like Solyndra takes real delusional thinking. Carry on sir, you're a credit to your party.  

There were several reasons I didn’t vote for Obama in his last election. One was his promise to clean up emissions from wells. At the end there was a plan for regulations to end flaring but he didn’t have that in place after 4 years. Fracking would have still happened but probably slower. This green light on pollution gave fracking an unnatural birth. Obama was not a green president but an energy one. 
Hey, I am not anti FF but when industry does harm and not required to pay compensation, that is not free market capitalism. That’s oligarchs running legislation.

If I remember right 70 billion out of 770 billion went to “clean energy initiatives”. Chump change in comparison to the rest. Obama did change the hearts and minds of red states that have wind by way of subsidies. They don’t like to talk about it but they love those checks. As a result wind is still growing and thriving.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

You're going to need a chiropractor to straighten you out of that convoluted "logic".

And a proctologist to pull your head out of your . . .

Do you honestly think there's enough wind and solar to warm houses and run factories? It's about 10%.

Without oil and gas we'd be in one heck of a pickle.