Shale Oil Fiasco

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,242]

19 minutes ago, James Gautreau said:

No need to quit being a lady fellas.

Maybe your in the wrong forum......

I didn't even put Red on ignore but I might consider for you. 

For no oil background you seem to think ya have it all figured out. Good luck.

 

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

And now, back to the Shale Oil Fiasco...

USA crude production in October edged up to 12.65 mbpd up from September's 12.484 mbpd.  Natural gas was 114.8 bcfd up from 113.2.  Both are up about 5% for 2019.

 

 

[James Gautreau + 86]

Big Oil needs another quarter like this one to clear out the pipes:

Big Oil's most profitable quarter ever: $51.5 billion

 

By

John Porretto, AP Business Writer

August 3, 2008, 4:28 PM

4 min read

 

HOUSTON -- Chevron and Total wrapped up a string of gargantuan, record-breaking earnings reports from oil companies on Friday, a stretch in which six of the major international oil companies topped $50 billion in combined profit for the first time.

While the profits of unparalleled size have brought withering criticism from Washington and disgust from consumers across the country, very few were surprised. Crude prices during the second quarter were nearly double what they were a year ago.

 

Chevron CVX said Friday its second-quarter profit rose 11% to a record $5.98 billion, despite losing money on the refining side of the business.

The San Ramon, Calif.-based company said net income for the three months ended June 30 amounted to $2.90 a share, versus income of $5.38 billion, or $2.52 a share, a year earlier.

Revenue rose significantly to $82.9 billion from $56.1 billion a year ago.

But results for the second-largest U.S. oil company missed Wall Street forecasts and shares fell slightly in afternoon trading. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected a profit of $3.03 per share on revenue of $92.41 billion.

Like its competitors, Chevron made the bulk of its money at its exploration and production arm, also known as the upstream, where income nearly doubled from a year ago to $7.25 billion.

Chevron said the average sales price for crude and natural gas liquids was $109 a barrel in the quarter, up from $57 a barrel in the year-earlier period.

In addition to Chevron, soaring commodity prices led to record quarters for ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, BP and Royal Dutch Shell.

ExxonMobil stood apart even from this crowd, logging the largest ever quarterly operating profit for a U.S. company. Barring companies that made huge profits on one-time gains like bankruptcy settlements and spinoffs, ExxonMobil holds the top 10 records for biggest U.S. quarterly earnings.

French energy company Total said Friday its profit climbed 38.7% in the second quarter to $7.38 billion. Quarterly sales rose 23% to $75.25 billion.

Altogether, the profits of the six companies jumped more than 40% in the second quarter to $51.5 billion, the first time big Western oil companies have ever reached that level.

Total's earnings were at the top end of analysts' expectations.

[James Gautreau + 86]

22 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

And now, back to the Shale Oil Fiasco...

USA crude production in October edged up to 12.65 mbpd up from September's 12.484 mbpd.  Natural gas was 114.8 bcfd up from 113.2.  Both are up about 5% for 2019.

 

 

As of October, average production for 2019 stands at 12,106. Even if the last 2 months average 13,000 apiece which it has never done, 2019 will come in at 12,255. Most likely comes in at 12,500 for last 2 months and 2019 comes in at 12,172 kbpd, which is 1.2 mbpd higher than 2018 average. Year over year growth will be ~500,000 bpd. 

[James Gautreau + 86]

Protesters shut down Iraq's Nassiriya oil field

REUTERS

 

• DEC 29, 2019
  ARTICLE HISTORY
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BASRA, IRAQ – Protesters broke into Iraq’s southern Nassiriya oil field on Saturday and forced employees to cut off electricity from its control station, taking the field offline until further notice, a security source and two oil sources said.

The oil field produces 90,000 barrels a day of crude. Protesters chanted “no homeland, no oil,” as they forced its closure, the sources said.

 

 

 

Mass protests have gripped Iraq since Oct. 1 and protesters, most of them young, are demanding an overhaul of a political system they see as profoundly corrupt and keeping most Iraqis in poverty. More than 450 people have been killed.

The incident marks the first time protesters have shut an entire oil field, though they have blocked entrances to refineries and ports in the past. Iraq’s economy depends on oil exports which make up more than 90 percent of revenues for OPEC’s second-largest producer. No foreign companies operate at the oil field.

[D Coyne + 305]

6 hours ago, Mike Shellman said:

In that I have drilled oil and gas wells for the past 45 years, with my own money, I am a "fin type" too, but one that checks the EBITDA bullshit at the door and works out of a checkbook; money out v. money in. Nothing is "sunk," regardless of accounting methodology, when you are up to your ass in debt (CLR has a net debt of +$4B) nor is there a such thing as "free" cash flow when you are in debt and have literally destroyed shareholder equity. 

Participating in this thread for me has been enlightening. Its clear to me that "analysing" shale oil and shale gas is a fun hobby for most and well economics, or corporate finances, is very hard to understand. I am also clear  that once one's mind is made up, one typically seeks out only those facts and fellow believers that support their conclusions. They focus on one thing, and ignore others. Facts like realized production data filed with the the TRRC or the NDIC are ignored completely and, incredibly, people seem to still believe if you read it on the internet, it has to be true...like investor presentations, etc. It is also clear to me that people trying to monetize the shale oil phenomena, particularly royalty owners getting boat loads of free money, don't want people messing with their lucrative gig. Lastly, making predictions about the future based on a model that shows product prices increasing is about as big a waste of time as one can make, IMO. 

All royalty owners make money in the shale biz because they pay no costs. When folks say 400,000 BO of recovery equals $36MM of revenue and the well, or a well, is a money maker...my hair stands up. That's when I know people are clueless. Take, for instance, Bakken wells; after marketing differentials, royalty burdens, production and ad valorem taxes, incremental production costs, or lift costs, interest expenses per incremental BO (Whitting, I think, has some $5 per BO debt costs), and G&A costs per BO the netback price is now around $23 per BO and has been as low as $13 per BO in the Bakken since 2014. Mr. Kramer is starting to get it.  People with agenda want gas included in revenue estimates, including NGL; it doesn't help too much, or not at all when a well is getting flared, which there are a lot of, everywhere.  

So a $4.5-5.0MM MM refrac with lateral preparation and new perforating, etc. will take 200,000 plus BO to payout the frac, what about the original well costs that did not payout. What about all the other lousy Mountain Gap wells in the same unit that don't look like they are going to pay out?  Cherry picking some wells that have been re-frac'ed and ignoring others is part of the "agenda."

Productivity is not the same as profitability and I would advise people to no longer assume this shale thing is going to go on for another decade without making any money, like it did the last decade. People need to fully understand shale economics if they have any kids and think they might live another 10 years; discussing all this is important and I applaud those that do. It makes more sense than day trading Revlon, or Fossil shares for $50 a day and ranting about Middle Eastern politics, for sure.  

 

 

 

Hi Mike,

In order to make a forecast one has to assume some future price, otherwise one cannot do an economic analysis.  Just as when you plan for 2020, you must make some oil price assumption.

Obviously not even you know the future price of oil, I certainly do not.  The physical analysis is based on well profiles that are based on data from https://shaleprofile.com, not on hype from investor presentations.  My best guess scenario (which you think is ridiculous at best) has oil prices gradually rising from $60/bo (Brent price in 2018$) to $90/bo (also Brent in 2018$) by Jan 2027, so about $4.28 per year.  My expectation is that as World oil output peaks (in 2025 to 2026) oil prices are likely to rise.

What price do you expect for oil in the future?  Seems it would be difficult to create a business plan without some oil price assumption, at least on my planet. 

My low oil price scenario for Permian basin below. I would guess there is about a 98% probability that Permian tight oil output will be higher than this scenario because the oil price scenario is incorrect.

Edited December 31, 2019 by D Coyne

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, D Coyne said:

All royalty owners make money in the shale biz because they pay no costs. When folks say 400,000 BO of recovery equals $36MM of revenue and the well, or a well, is a money maker...my hair stands up. That's when I know people are clueless. Take, for instance, Bakken wells; after marketing differentials, royalty burdens, production and ad valorem taxes, incremental production costs, or lift costs, interest expenses per incremental BO (Whitting, I think, has some $5 per BO debt costs), and G&A costs per BO the netback price is now around $23 per BO and has been as low as $13 per BO in the Bakken since 2014.

Clueless? Maybe so. 

Except that, to a person who bought minerals in North Dakota quite a while ago for about a sixth what I would've had to pay in the Permian, a well that makes 400,000 BO is a pretty good well, if you own a percentage of it and don't have to worry about production costs. 

I don't have control over Whiting overpaying for Kodiac, now saddled with a massive debt burden. I have zero concerns about ad valorem taxes, incremental production costs, interest expenses per incremental BO. All I have control over is where I buy minerals, and at what cost. If I buy carefully, I'm going to make money. If I don't, Whiting isn't going to worry much about me. This forum is, for me, a way to learn and share information in a respectful manner. I try to not pander, but not to deliberately step on anyone either.

You, on the other hand--since we're now down to analyzing each other--seem to have seething anger directed at almost anyone who hasn't shared your pathway in life. If you carry around that much anger you are at increased risk for a heart attack or stroke. And once you have one, or both, it won't make a hoot how much you know about ad valorem taxes or interest expenses per incremental BO, you'll just be trying to hold on. So do yourself a favor: try to lighten up a bit. You actually have a lot of knowledge to share, but if you have to put everyone else down in order to feel better, why, it's just going to get harder and harder for you. 

[Mike Shellman + 548]

14 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

 

 

  

Edited January 1, 2020 by Mike Shellman

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

This is just about the most bullshit I've ever seen in one paragraph. Some of the people on this site have sweated bullets waiting on a well to either come in with enough vigor to break even, or to go bust. I happen to be in that group. I'm really not into mental masturbation so if you want to post that stuff, please, do so. But as with all things in life, to thine own self be true-----what is your motive?  

He is seeking validation of a trade position and people to pile up into it and push it up. Not here to be convinced but to promote a position. There is nothing wrong with that, and it is interesting to see his dour upside down view of geopolitics and economics and clinging to end of the world scenarios - not that they aren't possible. 

Some old timers in from the conventional oil world are fanning his flames because of the financial fiasco that shale turned out to be because of errors in expectations and in execution and really bad funding and leasing commitments and even crimes like auction rigging that were made in the initial rush. It isn't unusual for the initial phase and the exponential growth phase of a new industry. It is no different from the internet bubble. Or the cryptocurrency bubble, or the gold bubble, or the China bubble. It ends with a pile of rubble and then the useful operations revive and the useless ones get their assets' ownership rejiggered, hopefully into stronger hands.

Oil has been in backwardation for ages now, it is signaling to dishoard and to produce now rather than later, a condition of market undersupply. As James Gautreau's video clip from Hedgeye's great interview of Mark Gordon indicates, there are two years of investment dropping by a cumulative 40% and only one year of it rising. It has come to a halt and now just emerging with new drilling as oil prices have rebounded. The current conditions allow you to hedge your production to satisfy loan covenants at $56-58 one year forwards prices and $2.70 for NG, which you can do if you have a pipeline or reasonable cost transport alternatives locked in. Note that you are going to need to post collateral or use costly options to track the backwardation as the contract rises as it approaches maturity. With so many workers on their sofas watching soaps and playing computer games, and low input prices and hire rates for rigs etc., it is likely already a good price at which you can assemble operations if you aren't drowning in debt.

I did a crude study of  pricing dynamics of oil production inputs like rig rates and crews etc. and they seemed to be entirely proportional to the crude oil price so that the very volatile gross margin on oil production is still far less volatile than the oil price, though it does cross below 0 often enough. I am sure all of you pros know that, because it was an oil pro's prediction and that was why I had to check it out.

COTs are showing a slow pickup in commercial short positions which is indicating hedging of new projects as do rising rig counts as rising oil prices are slowly triggering activity. 

The enormous size of LNG trade that has been established will promise any field with decent pipelines to the LNG terminals a much better than nothing payout on their NG. I think that is why majors are waiting for pipelines to be closer to being finished next year before they resume drilling and fracing ops. I don't really think they need higher prices. They just need to be paid something of substance for their NG.

BTW I am with you on expecting LNG to dominate energy consumption growth in the next decade, with oil consumption growth falling behind population growth. Mostly because populations are aging out of the workforce so are more likely to take a walk than drive to work. Because that also means that you need less infrastructure expansion to accommodate smaller incoming generations, and less new housing. 

I have become a China skeptic as their leverage has gone through the roof and detached from economic expansion. They are in a classic credit bubble that any Austrian School economist would spot from outer space. Its financial system has become a Ponzi scheme of rolling over unpaid interest from non performing loans that will break down when their savings rate drops as retirements pick up and the next saving wave is a smaller demographic. Their labor participation rate has already fallen from 79% to the mid 60%s (68% in 2018 - a rosy scenario number - probably more like 66% for a high estimate) and the financial system will turn cash flow negative and have to be restructured sooner rather than later. If their forex account shrinks as with an oil spike or another episode of huge capital flight like the bitcoin flood, or more export business going offshore, then their currency will go into crisis, and domestic prices will spike up. They are a demographic basket case and unlike Japan, they have not prepared with massive foreign investment.

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

A heads up for folks who may be unaware, the rbnenergydotcom site - arguably the very best site for all things hydrocarbon - has an informative post today reviewing their top 10 postings for 2019.

Many of the issues discussed in this thread have been analyzed, distilled, and presented by the rbn energy professionals during the year.

Outstanding daily source for information.

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, James Gautreau said:

Chevron said the average sales price for crude and natural gas liquids was $109 a barrel in the quarter, up from $57 a barrel in the year-earlier period.

That is an interesting figure. How do you do that? $109 per bbl in a $60/bbl quarter? Hedge profits?

[0R0 + 6,251]

9 hours ago, Mike Shellman said:

In that I have drilled oil and gas wells for the past 45 years, with my own money, I am a "fin type" too, but one that checks the EBITDA bullshit at the door and works out of a checkbook; money out v. money in. Nothing is "sunk," regardless of accounting methodology, when you are up to your ass in debt (CLR has a net debt of +$4B) nor is there a such thing as "free" cash flow when you are in debt and have literally destroyed shareholder equity. 

Participating in this thread for me has been enlightening. Its clear to me that "analysing" shale oil and shale gas is a fun hobby for most and well economics, or corporate finances, is very hard to understand. I am also clear  that once one's mind is made up, one typically seeks out only those facts and fellow believers that support their conclusions. They focus on one thing, and ignore others. Facts like realized production data filed with the the TRRC or the NDIC are ignored completely and, incredibly, people seem to still believe if you read it on the internet, it has to be true...like investor presentations, etc. It is also clear to me that people trying to monetize the shale oil phenomena, particularly royalty owners getting boat loads of free money, don't want people messing with their lucrative gig. Lastly, making predictions about the future based on a model that shows product prices increasing is about as big a waste of time as one can make, IMO. 

All royalty owners make money in the shale biz because they pay no costs. When folks say 400,000 BO of recovery equals $36MM of revenue and the well, or a well, is a money maker...my hair stands up. That's when I know people are clueless. Take, for instance, Bakken wells; after marketing differentials, royalty burdens, production and ad valorem taxes, incremental production costs, or lift costs, interest expenses per incremental BO (Whitting, I think, has some $5 per BO debt costs), and G&A costs per BO the netback price is now around $23 per BO and has been as low as $13 per BO in the Bakken since 2014. Mr. Kramer is starting to get it.  People with agenda want gas included in revenue estimates, including NGL; it doesn't help too much, or not at all when a well is getting flared, which there are a lot of, everywhere.  

So a $4.5-5.0MM MM refrac with lateral preparation and new perforating, etc. will take 200,000 plus BO to payout the frac, what about the original well costs that did not payout. What about all the other lousy Mountain Gap wells in the same unit that don't look like they are going to pay out?  Cherry picking some wells that have been re-frac'ed and ignoring others is part of the "agenda."

Productivity is not the same as profitability and I would advise people to no longer assume this shale thing is going to go on for another decade without making any money, like it did the last decade. People need to fully understand shale economics if they have any kids and think they might live another 10 years; discussing all this is important and I applaud those that do. It makes more sense than day trading Revlon, or Fossil shares for $50 a day and ranting about Middle Eastern politics, for sure.  

 

 

 

I am wondering what your estimate of reasonable oil lease terms or cost would be, as revenue share or acre cost. I am sure that Oxy's payment was outrageous in your view. I am trying to form an estimate for a forward breakeven cost once collapsed companies renegotiate their leases. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, Mike Shellman said:

passive shale investments.

If I'm not mistaken, you claimed earlier that you had bought minerals, not inherited them. People are passive investors in the stock market, and just about every other market, including this one. I lost money as an active investor in oil and gas; just about everyone does. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

8 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

My take! After 9/11, we invaded the wrong country. And that's pretty much my final word on this stuff. I have to agree with Shellman and Buckland: the shale fiasco is a mess. But you know, there for a while, it may have saved us from WWIII.    

The Wahabi sect from which Bin Laden's organization recruited was the only justification for the House of Saud's rule over the kingdom as they declared them the hereditary  dynasty in charge of Mecca, which kept them in power. Post 9/11 they cleaned out the Wahabi hierarchy. They also cracked down on their critics and worked to reduce their reliance on the Wahabis for legitimacy and to restrict Wahabi religious police power in the street. A big part of the anti US attitudes in Islamic communities is exactly US support for the likes of the often brutal Saudi and Iranian monarchies, for Sunni and Shia respectively. 

So while invading Iraq had little to do with the actual perpetrators of 9/11, they were still breaking out of the US/Saudi alliance and trying to buy European support by adopting the Euro for oil trade settlement. They were using terrorist support mechanisms to run proxy wars just as Iran has done and is still doing on a massive scale. 

[Torgom Pogossian + 6]

53 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The Wahabi sect from which Bin Laden's organization recruited was the only justification for the House of Saud's rule over the kingdom as they declared them the hereditary  dynasty in charge of Mecca, which kept them in power. Post 9/11 they cleaned out the Wahabi hierarchy. They also cracked down on their critics and worked to reduce their reliance on the Wahabis for legitimacy and to restrict Wahabi religious police power in the street. A big part of the anti US attitudes in Islamic communities is exactly US support for the likes of the often brutal Saudi and Iranian monarchies, for Sunni and Shia respectively. 

So while invading Iraq had little to do with the actual perpetrators of 9/11, they were still breaking out of the US/Saudi alliance and trying to buy European support by adopting the Euro for oil trade settlement. They were using terrorist support mechanisms to run proxy wars just as Iran has done and is still doing on a massive scale. 

just when I thought there was nothing else to learn from this thread comes this gem.

[Mike Shellman + 548]

12 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

If I'm not mistaken, you claimed earlier that you had bought minerals, not inherited them. People are passive investors in the stock market, and just about every other market, including this one. I lost money as an active investor in oil and gas; just about everyone does. 

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2020 by Mike Shellman

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

43 minutes ago, Mike Shellman said:

I don't make "claims," people know who I am and what I do. Relying on royalty for a living is being dependent on others; its passive. Your mineral interest, wherever that might be, would not be worth diddly squat but for a  screwed up monetary system in America that gave unlimited credit to shale oil companies who could not make any money when the price of oil was $90. Now, because of the debt they have ALL amassed, it will take $90, forever, for them to get OUT of debt.  You are in the middle of one of the biggest redistributions of wealth in American history, good for you. 

Come out here this evening, on New Years Eve, and sit this rig with me. Its wet and it's cold and I'd like to be home tomorrow to eat black eyed peas with my family. It ain't gonna happen. I wasn't in the least bit angry, now I am; I have had enough of internet "experts" telling me how the oil business works. My lab has spent more time around rigs that you have. I've bowed out of this conversation as gracefully and respectfully as possible. Leave me out of it. You and whatshisname have a finger on the pulse of America's oil industry...answer these questions about "fair leasehold terms" (don't tell the fella about the bullshit drilling commitments you guys place on these shale dudes that have caused them to overdrill everything) and how to make money in the shale oil business. Lay it all out for everyone. Start with where all the money is going to come from for you guys to keep making money...passively.  I'm done. @Tom Kirkman, get me out of this mess. 

 

 

 

I’ll gladly sit the rig while you go partake of black-eyed peas!😂

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, Torgom Pogossian said:

just when I thought there was nothing else to learn from this thread comes this gem.

And here's another little gem for you:  invading Iraq and capturing Saddam had diddly to do with either 9/11 or oil matters.  After Saddam invaded Kuwait and George H.W. Bush [father] put together the Colin Powell coalition and kicked his army's ass, Saddam put together a hit squad to assassinate George the Father.  George Junior  (Pres 43, the son) then went after Saddam specifically to avenge the (failed) assassination.  Saddam was then hung inside a prison on New Year's Eve.  As his enemies said:  "He dies tonight."  

[Guest]

So it's like a good riddance anniversary.

And if you want examples of Hussein's evil (not that they were exactly lacking), then look for Christopher Hitchens on Youtube, where he returns dishevelled from Iran, Iraq and North Korea to a small press conference. At the time he was the only journalist to have been to all 3 and he gives fascinating anecdotes of them all. Just type ''Hitchens Axis of Evil'' and it'll come up. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, Mike Shellman said:

I'll be here long after the stupid shale thing is done and gone. 

Come on. Mike,don't be so tough. You have lots of goodies and a wealth of experience to contribute.  I, for one, really appreciate your writings.  

Yet let's remember that "shale" was a grand experiment.  It was predicated on $109 oil.  Would   it have been a grand success if the prices had remained high?   Probably.  So, it was a gamble, an experiment, and OK, so it faced lowered prices and ran in the red, but every new experiment in economics has that risk.  Right now, it looks bleak, but the flip side is that no one cay say where pricing for oil will be in the future.  So let's not nail shut that barn door, let it play out, the financiers will take their chances and either reap rewards or take their lickings.  Nature of these grand experiments.  Cheers. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

4 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

And if you want examples of Hussein's evil

Hussein was beyond evil.  He went all the way to banal. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Mike Shellman said:

I don't make "claims," people know who I am and what I do. Relying on royalty for a living is being dependent on others; its passive. Your mineral interest, wherever that might be, would not be worth diddly squat but for a  screwed up monetary system in America that gave unlimited credit to shale oil companies who could not make any money when the price of oil was $90. Now, because of the debt they have ALL amassed, it will take $90, forever, for them to get OUT of debt.  You are in the middle of one of the biggest redistributions of wealth in American history, good for you. 

Come out here this evening, on New Years Eve, and sit this rig with me. Its wet and it's cold and I'd like to be home tomorrow to eat black eyed peas with my family. It ain't gonna happen. I wasn't in the least bit angry, now I am; I have had enough of internet "experts" telling me how the oil business works. My lab has spent more time around rigs that you have. I've bowed out of this conversation as gracefully and respectfully as possible. Leave me out of it. You and whatshisname have a finger on the pulse of America's oil industry...answer these questions about "fair leasehold terms" (don't tell the fella about the bullshit drilling commitments you guys place on these shale dudes that have caused them to overdrill everything) and how to make money in the shale oil business. Lay it all out for everyone. Start with where all the money is going to come from for you guys to keep making money...passively.  I'm done. @Tom Kirkman, get me out of this mess. 

 

 

 

I hope my summaries are not an annoying display of hubris, I am just trying to learn more about what is going on in shale and oil production in general because it is important for my own economic projections and analysis of geopolitics. I write up what I learn here and put it in a broader economic context - where my current view is coming from. 

I am assuming you refer to my question of what lease terms would actually come about once the remaining weak companies keel over and their contracts need to be negotiated by the successor companies. Fair would be nice, but it didn't seem that "fair" bothered the operators that rushed in with a debt canon at their backs and signed the use it or lose it leases. 

You are among the most informative posters here. Please don't leave.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Hussein was beyond evil.  He went all the way to banal. 

I think his train actually terminated in Hell....

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

8 hours ago, Mike Shellman said:

Come out here this evening, on New Years Eve, and sit this rig with me. Its wet and it's cold and I'd like to be home tomorrow to eat black eyed peas with my family. It ain't gonna happen. I wasn't in the least bit angry, now I am; I have had enough of internet "experts" telling me how the oil business works. My lab has spent more time around rigs that you have. I've bowed out of this conversation as gracefully and respectfully as possible. Leave me out of it. You and whatshisname have a finger on the pulse of America's oil industry...answer these questions about "fair leasehold terms" (don't tell the fella about the bullshit drilling commitments you guys place on these shale dudes that have caused them to overdrill everything) and how to make money in the shale oil business. Lay it all out for everyone. Start with where all the money is going to come from for you guys to keep making money...passively.  I'm done. @Tom Kirkman, get me out of this mess. 

Hey Mike, hope you are able to get home to see your family soon.  You have been writing about the oil industry for many years; if some people choose to stick their fingers in their ears and go "la la la I can't hear you" there is not much I can do.

Keep on slogging through the hard work, just like you have always done.  Please don't succumb to letting others define you, or tell you what you can and cannot think - you are a far better person than that.  Kudos to your personal integrity.

For readers here, you might want to read up about Mike Shellman before dismissing his opinions.  

Anyway Mike, hope yoy get your work done at site, stay as dry as you can, and get back to enjoy a great meal with your family and friends.  That is what counts.  Reading pissy words by others on the internet is way far down the importance totem pole compared to real life family and work.  

Hope you decide to meander back here at some point, to continue the uphill battle of sounding the alert about about the insane debt structure of fracking.  And on the bright side, the uphill battle is getting easier than it was 5 years ago, as Mainstream Media is openly questioning the sustainability of fracking debt.  The idea of the fracking hamster wheel of debt (craziness akin to paying credit card debt with new credit cards) is slowly seeping into the collective consciousness.

Happy New Year Mike, hope 2020 is a bangup, black gold, helluva year for you  : )

[Mike Shellman + 548]

48 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Happy New Year Mike, hope 2020 is a bangup, black gold, helluva year for you  : )

And Happy New Year to you, Tom. We'll survive. Thanks for everything, sir.