Shale Oil Fiasco

[Guest]

Well it's nice to know the shale thread hasn't gone off the rails.

Terrorists killed in Baghdad. Yep ... very shale related. 

Oh sorry, sarcasm is frowned upon by the comedy police and I don't wanna 'belittle' this amazingly related stuff. 

@Rob Kramer ... sort it out   

4 hours ago, J.R. Ewing said:

Looks like Iran is going to need a new general - https://www.foxnews.com/world/rockets-baghdad-airport-injuries-reported

Since the USA doesn't use too many Katyusha rockets, I can't wait to find out who carried out this attack.

JR you made a comment before about why do I look at this thread if I don't care about shale yes? Please explain the Iranian generals, Baghdad airport and American rockets and this opener above, as you are clearly Mr Stay On Topic. 

/ sarc

@Papillon       like this

Edited January 3, 2020 by Guest

[Anthony Flores + 1]

I am getting involves in drill pipe and directional drill motors rubber removal in a month or so and before I begin this project and purchasing expensive waterblasting equipment and pumps id like others input on how the first quarter of 2020 will be for drilling companies. Will there be more cuts or will these companies grow? This includes big companies and manufacturers like Schlumberger, Halliburton, Weatherford, ect......

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

5 minutes ago, jdc88 said:

Does it matter where anyone is from, I’m from the ass end of the world and looking at what Trump is doing with absolute disbelief. The guy is making unilateral decisions which im not sure he is mentally capable of making - this is why the bulk of the world look at America with wonder and go how the hell is that guy in charge. History will not look kindly on another war in the Middle East, balls in Iran’s court .... 

So, it doesn't matter where anyone is from but you think your whining about Trump matters?

To summarize, the US Embassy in Iraq was invaded by Iranian proxies and the US held Iran accountable.  If that doesn't make sense to you and want to complain about it, knock yourself out.

 

 

[Guest]

SHALE OIL FIASCO

Just sayin'

Pretty sure it won't be long until there are a few threads about what happened in the ME. Call it a weird feeling in my bones. 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Guest

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

7 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Well it's nice to know the shale thread hasn't gone off the rails.

Terrorists killed in Baghdad. Yep ... very shale related. 

Oh sorry, sarcasm is frowned upon by the comedy police and I don't wanna 'belittle' this amazingly related stuff. 

@Rob Kramer ... sort it out   

JR you made a comment before about why do I look at this thread if I don't care about shale yes? Please explain the Iranian generals, Baghdad airport and American rockets and this opener above, as you are clearly Mr Stay On Topic. 

/ sarc

@Papillon       like this

I think you'll find the price of oil is of interest to most people on this thread.  Military actions in the Middle East often effect the price of oil in case you didn't know.

You apparently didn't comprehend my previous comment that you referenced.  I didn't say anything about whether or not you care about shale.  I also did not say anything about staying on topic.

What I did was make fun of you for constantly posting on this thread to complain about it instead of simply ignoring it.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

Military actions in the Middle East often effect the price of oil in case you didn't know.

Yeah? Cheers for that. It flows perfectly then from the comment before yours. You mentioned the price of oil quite a bit yep. I missed it I guess. 

2 hours ago, J.R. Ewing said:

The terrorists killed in Baghdad tonight ordered an attack on an American embassy and that's why they were terminated

Was it this bit?  

46 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

You seem really insecure and confused about America.

But you haven't told us what country you're from. 

Or this bit maybe?  

15 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

to complain about it instead of simply ignoring it.

Ditto.

By the way, I'm English. Can I have an opinion about Trump now? It seems someone's nationality is important for you to know first before they have an opinion? 

39 pages ... just amazing.

LOL just kidding. 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Guest

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

ORO

"Gas pressure may fall in NYC during the next cold snap ..."

That already happened last January in Newport, RI but got almost no clear, explanatory reporting.

One consequence of this shortfall is the $180 miliion LNG plant being built in Providence.

Taking in gas when it is available and cheap, these new economical process (see vacuum super insulation, for just one example) will provide sufficient fuel for the high demand windows of early evening wintertime hours.

Philadelphia (Passyunk, $60 million) is doing the same on a smaller scale.

Pittsburgh Airport is taking this situation of onsite gas (10 producing wells)  to new levels with the installation of 5 Siemens turbines with heat capture to provide the facility's need for electricity and heat. Going one step further, they are recruiting firms, especially 3 D printing outfits, to locate on their property by providing extremely low power costs.

The P&G paper plant in Lycoming county has been doing this - using their own onsite gas wells - for years and is one of the company's largest, most profitable paper plants.

(The new, massive P&G plant outside Martinsburg, WV will employ 2,000 people with a high percentage being computer/process techs as the production will be almost completely automated. Low cost of power plays a big role in all of this).

These developments stem from the massively large, extraordinarily low cost of natgas as a fuel.

The fact that hard charging EQT CEO Toby Rice is determined to get gas production costs down to the $2/HH level should send a jolt to the global energy markets.

Even if Rice only comes close to succeeding, (I am certain that he will) downstream industries will continue to reverberate with the consequences for decades to come.

P&G use Chemical Engineers and technicians with programming training. The huge cost advantage of US  nat gas is what the Trump admin. is relying on to power industrial growth. To substitute as a super clean petrochem feedstock, cheap energy for arc furnace steel and electricity for aluminum. The 3D printing efforts at Pittsburgh are new to me. 

Yes, the new LNG technology is really reducing the costs. The recent estimate of $3 MMBtu liquefaction quote somebody used in an argument against competing with Russia on LNG is really very high. With NG powered compression and refrigeration equipment it is more like $1. Really need to get a good up to date figure from the LNG industry. 

If Mr. Rice succeeds, then it is the end of oil as a feedstock for petrochem. The only impediment has been that the methane polymerization to longer chain olefins to replace naphtha economically, and perhaps one day diesel and gasoline, NGLs propane ethane and butane are plentiful enough.

BTW, the solar powered tech for electochemical production of olefins ethane and ethanol formic acid etc. is coming along nicely and will eventually be cheap enough. Siemens is a large participant in the process development. So are energy companies.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/can-world-make-chemicals-it-needs-without-oil

The 

[remake it + 288]

38 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

What I did was make fun of you for constantly posting on this thread to complain about it instead of simply ignoring it.

This thread is about shale oil and there are other threads for discussing the US extra-judicial assassination of Iranians in Iraq so please take yourself there.

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

31 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Yeah? Cheers for that. It flows perfectly then from the comment before yours. You mentioned the price of oil quite a bit yep. I missed it I guess. 

Was it this bit?  

Or this bit maybe?  

Ditto.

By the way, I'm English. Can I have an opinion about Trump now? It seems someone's nationality is important for you to know first before they have an opinion? 

39 pages ... just amazing.

LOL just kidding. 

The price of oil is up $2 overnight because of what happened in Baghdad and you can't figure out why it's being discussed on OilPrice.com?  Bless your heart.

I didn't ask for your nationality but thanks for sharing.  Generally, someone's nationality is not especially important to me but when someone has ill-conceived opinions about America, I am curious where they are from.

Don't forget to come back in a few pages and whine some more about this thread.

 

 

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

11 minutes ago, remake it said:

This thread is about shale oil and there are other threads for discussing the US extra-judicial assassination of Iranians in Iraq so please take yourself there.

Where is the thread about American police?

BTW - Shale oil is up $2 because of the US exterminating terrorists in Iraq so I think I'm in the right thread.

[James Gautreau + 86]

People are certainly going to differ on the merits of this assassination. The guy was like Maximus and Iran, and you make a martyr out of him. That alone is why bush and Trump didn't kill him. The plan he was working on is already complete. Seems to me Trump is saying game on and we don't want you there after it happens making good strategic decisions. This tells me Trump is scared of Iran. Remember he is the Commander in Chief, he doesn't listen to his generals, forms strategy by talking to the grunts. Yeah I would agree; you have to get rid of the other side's best military mind to have a snowball's chance in hell of winning with this guy calling the shots. 

[Guest]

9 hours ago, J.R. Ewing said:

 oil is up $2 overnight because of what happened in Baghdad and you can't figure out why it's being discussed on OilPrice.com?

Love how this thread is now ''OilPrice.com'' , I see what you did there. You are correct, when Doug started the thread his psychic powers had this kinda stuff in mind.

9 hours ago, J.R. Ewing said:

Don't forget to come back in a few pages and whine some more about this thread.

I will do it now instead. If I come back in a few pages there is no telling what you'll be talking about but I'm sure it'll be gold.

9 hours ago, J.R. Ewing said:

I think I'm in the right thread.

You may be mistaken there.

9 hours ago, remake it said:

This thread is about shale oil and there are other threads for discussing the US extra-judicial assassination of Iranians in Iraq so please take yourself there.

DING, pretty sure there will be other threads about this little Middle Eastern issue.

9 hours ago, J.R. Ewing said:

when someone has ill-conceived opinions about America, I am curious where they are from.

An American who can't believe some people have varying opinions about America? What a rarity.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

I found some seeking alpha reporting that's simply data . The guy summary of the data is good too. Here is alot of different sources of data alone so it's a good overview of what is current .

And I've said previously seeking alpha is usually pretty polarized probably to gain the following of those with that view. And they'll have 2 authors with opposite views for both crouds. But this is alot of data put together in one place .

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4315024-u-s-oil-production-is-competing-against-decline

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,242]

10 hours ago, DayTrader said:

By the way, I'm English. Can I have an opinion about Trump now? It seems someone's nationality is important for you to know first before they have an opinion?

No, not without a DNA test. Could be a commie infiltrating the page 39 hehehe

[James Gautreau + 86]

Just now, Old-Ruffneck said:

No, not without a DNA test. Could be a commie infiltrating the page 39 hehehe

Day Tripper turns out to be a Day Trader. Or vice versa.

[James Gautreau + 86]

31 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

I found some seeking alpha reporting that's simply data . The guy summary of the data is good too. Here is alot of different sources of data alone so it's a good overview of what is current .

And I've said previously seeking alpha is usually pretty polarized probably to gain the following of those with that view. And they'll have 2 authors with opposite views for both crouds. But this is alot of data put together in one place .

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4315024-u-s-oil-production-is-competing-against-decline

Thanks for posting. Confirms my analysis of a mid-March as the day of reckoning. The Ides of March. I like it.

[Guest]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IbPn5j2YKk

It's not often you have 2 of the best songwriters of all time in the same band.

Trust the English.

8 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

infiltrating the page 39

In a week you can add a zero to that.

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Guest

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,242]

2 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IbPn5j2YKk

 

We'll be on page 40 before ya know it. Crude oil is falling back, which I really expected cause Trump aint gonna play tit for tat. He'll take out their refineries I am fairly certain, and or bunker buster their uranium projects. IMO

[James Gautreau + 86]

Iran will take out Saudi refineries, America will take out Iran's refineries, Iran will take out Iraq's refineries... and 20 mbpd will come off line and that will eat the 2 billion barrels in the system up in 100 days. That's some grand strategy. 

[James Gautreau + 86]

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 11.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 429.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 8.8 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 2.9 million barrels last week. 

More than twice the 5.5 million barrel draw of last week. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

I wonder if Trump just killed Archduke Ferdinand.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,242]

8 minutes ago, James Gautreau said:

Iran will take out Saudi refineries, America will take out Iran's refineries, Iran will take out Iraq's refineries... and 20 mbpd will come off line and that will eat the 2 billion barrels in the system up in 100 days. That's some grand strategy. 

That's not going to happen. If the government of Iran tries retaliatory strikes the whole of Iranian's only economic income will be destroyed. I don't doubt they my try an attack in Iraq but not so sure they can get mission accomplished. 

Gotta go, Foreman ran outta fuel in middle of nowhere... 35f so he'll get cold quick. Laterz

 

[D Coyne + 305]

2 hours ago, James Gautreau said:

Thanks for posting. Confirms my analysis of a mid-March as the day of reckoning. The Ides of March. I like it.

An alternative viewpoint.

The Scenario for US L48 excluding GOM C+C in chart below is my current best guess.

The second order polynomial trend line fit to monthly EIA data (dashed line) shown for comparison, dotted line is trend for quadratic fit.

[Bob D + 562]

2 hours ago, James Gautreau said:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 11.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 429.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 8.8 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 2.9 million barrels last week. 

More than twice the 5.5 million barrel draw of last week. 

Weekly Inventory numbers at Year End are worthless.  This is accounting and tax shenanigans.  Reversion coming next week.  

[Bob D + 562]

2 hours ago, James Gautreau said:

Thanks for posting. Confirms my analysis of a mid-March as the day of reckoning. The Ides of March. I like it.

What happens on "the day of reckoning"?

 

I assume US production finally rolls over and we see production declines??  I'm all for that.

Let's see a price spike so US producers can hedge out the curve.

Plenty of shale oil to be produced and profitably if we can raise prices out the curve towards $60