Shale Oil Fiasco

[James Gautreau + 86]

By my calculations the last 10 years of shale oil needed minimum $85 a barrel to break even. Looking forward $125 -150. 

[remake it + 288]

2 minutes ago, James Gautreau said:

By my calculations the last 10 years of shale oil needed minimum $85 a barrel to break even. Looking forward $125 -150. 

Even it were so it ignores the fact that there will be many producers making decent profits under $50/bbl and it is not as if you are talking about an industry where there has only ever been winners.

[Papillon + 485]

On the plus side though sir, the production of heroin via the poppy there went through the roof, so swings and roundabouts ...

5 minutes ago, remake it said:

that in almost 20 years the USA could not defeat a non-aligned goat herding nation called Afghanistan

This is an instance where one should not laugh deep down but the wording is so good that you have to. 

[James Gautreau + 86]

It took Saudi Arabia just 11 days to restore production after the September attack, according to the International Energy Agency. By early October, Brent prices had given up their gains and dipped back below $57 per barrel.

While the attack unnerved investors, there were signs that the people who planned it had tried to limit the damage by avoiding hits on the most sensitive part of the facilities: the oil well heads.

 

Iran could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Here's why that matters

That contrasts with the tactics used by the Iraqi army during its retreat from Kuwait under US bombing in 1991, when well heads were targeted causing gushing infernos that burned for weeks.

Commercial shipping in the region could also come under threat from Iran.

[remake it + 288]

16 minutes ago, James Gautreau said:

Iran could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Here's why that matters

For those not so good at geography please read @James Gautreau's link for a reasoned explanation of why President Trump's drone strike has now imperiled global energy supplies.

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

34 minutes ago, remake it said:

For those not so good at geography please read @James Gautreau's link for a reasoned explanation of why President Trump's drone strike has now imperiled global energy supplies.

For those not so good at history, global energy supplies had previously been imperiled before yesterday.

No offense, Remake It, but I doubt anyone on this forum would learn anything new from that CNN article.  The author is not even an energy specialist.

[remake it + 288]

2 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

For those not so good at history, global energy supplies had previously been imperiled before yesterday.

No offense, Remake It, but I doubt anyone on this forum would learn anything new from that CNN article.  The author is not even an energy specialist.

No offence taken but do you derive a living as strategic analyst?

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

4 hours ago, DayTrader said:

An American who can't believe some people have varying opinions about America? What a rarity

You seem to have a hard time understanding my posts.  I never said I can't believe people have varying opinions about America.

Try a little more reading comprehension next time and a little less whining.

[Guest]

We clearly have a different opinion of the word 'whining' I guess, and probably most things. It appears that's all you have done for the majority of your 23 posts. If anyone disagrees with you you say they are insecure, confused or whining. Seeing a pattern here. WOMP.

Edited January 3, 2020 by Guest

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

2 minutes ago, remake it said:

No offence taken but do you derive a living as strategic analyst?

You didn't answer my question about where you're from but now you're asking about my job?

You excel at stating the obvious.  Everyone on this thread is educated enough to know there is a risk of Iran responding.  I appreciate that's why some prefer to appease their enemies but my screen name is JR Ewing not Neville Chamberlain.

[J.R. Ewing + 19]

11 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

We clearly have a different opinion of the word 'whining' I guess, and probably most things. It appears that's all you have done for the majority of your 23 posts. If anyone disagrees with you you say they are insecure, confused or whining. Seeing a pattern here. WOMP.

If you expect thank-you notes from people that you intentionally misquote, I have some bad news for you.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

You didn't answer my question about where you're from but now you're asking about my job?

Good luck getting an answer.

[remake it + 288]

3 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

You excel at stating the obvious.

Obviously that accounts for the red arrows given that all those here should be "educated enough" to instead use the 'Merrkin lingo.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, J.R. Ewing said:

next time and a little less whining.

16 hours ago, J.R. Ewing said:

but you think your whining about Trump matters

58 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

If anyone disagrees with you you say they are insecure, confused or whining

Or they 'state the obvious'. Congratulations, you managed to introduce the word 'whining' (rather ironically) as a new method of either stating a lack of argument here, or the inability to accept or listen to an opposing one. Oh wait, that's the whole thread.  

45 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

intentionally misquote

Ok you said 'ill conceived opinions of America' if I remember rightly yes? My point still stands, a differing opinion to your own of America MUST be ill conceived? Plus it wasn't intentional. Other than that, good point. 

45 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

I have some bad news for you.

Very true, every time you quote me it's time I'll never get back. Give it a rest.

41 minutes ago, remake it said:

given that all those here should be "educated enough"

Clearly not. I will guess China, call it a hunch of mine. 

18 hours ago, J.R. Ewing said:

that's why they were terminated so I'm not sure what you're whining about.

It's like an addiction. 3 different people I have just noticed you said it to. This is called irony.

Edited January 3, 2020 by Guest

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

32 minutes ago, J.R. Ewing said:

You didn't answer my question about where you're from but now you're asking about my job?

I refer you back to page 39 and all you have to do is read his posts and it'll give you a strong clue where he's from. 

Page 41 coming up soon 🙂

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

I refer you back to page 39 and all you have to do is read his posts and it'll give you a strong clue where he's from. 

Page 41 coming up soon 🙂

Haha he's asking Remake, not me. Everyone knows where I am from as it's obvious from the constant wisdom and sarcasm, plus I spell words properly ...

How was your foreman? All sorted? 

And yes, page 41 coming soon luckily. We are getting close to solving the shale situation and fiasco. Phew, I was getting worried it may never happen. 

I'm just grateful everyone knows where I'm from so I can have opinions now. 

By the way one of my resolutions is to be even more sarcastic.

Edited January 3, 2020 by Guest

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

1 minute ago, DayTrader said:

Haha he's asking Remake, not me. Everyone knows where I am from as it's obvious from the constant wisdom and sarcasm, plus I spell words properly ...

How was your foreman? All sorted? 

And yes, page 41 coming soon luckily. We are getting close to solving the shale situation and fiasco. Phew, I was getting worried it may never happen. 

He was 30 miles away where he ran out of gas. He has biz gas card so shame on him. All good tho. As far as where I live, Central Illinois where Kitty Kats used to be manufactured. Still are on very small scale. Made globally now.

[James Gautreau + 86]

Even Commodus wasn't stupid enough to make a martyr out of Maximus. That should tell you everything you need to know. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

I noticed I missed the last rig count when reading this one . Looks like even with these stonger prices they still drop. That makes the EIA DPR even more likely and same with the outcome stated in the SA article.

I see some strong prices coming up. I think the Total Petroleum products is more accurate than crude oil alone . It was a 2.9M draw. 

I read Canadian news that said in q1 2020 well fit 150k/d more on our pipelines. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

7 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

I noticed I missed the last rig count when reading this one . Looks like even with these stonger prices they still drop. That makes the EIA DPR even more likely and same with the outcome stated in the SA article.

I see some strong prices coming up. I think the Total Petroleum products is more accurate than crude oil alone . It was a 2.9M draw. 

I read Canadian news that said in q1 2020 well fit 150k/d more on our pipelines. 

I think there is already a change in trend in drilling, not expecting to see a huge ramp up till prices firm back into the high 60s, this isn't 2016 with a rapid $20 price rise and strong expectations. .

Backwardation is making hedging a problem; without special contracts that would be difficult to get where you don't need to post collateral as you approach the expiration at spot prices - which would be higher if backwardation continues, which it does till the market expects supply to grow faster than demand, to state the obvious. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

2 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

I noticed I missed the last rig count when reading this one . Looks like even with these stonger prices they still drop. That makes the EIA DPR even more likely and same with the outcome stated in the SA article.

I see some strong prices coming up. I think the Total Petroleum products is more accurate than crude oil alone . It was a 2.9M draw. 

I read Canadian news that said in q1 2020 well fit 150k/d more on our pipelines. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Rig-Count-Collapse-Continues-Into-The-New-Year.html

[James Gautreau + 86]

"Only the dead, have seen the end of war."

[James Gautreau + 86]

WTF.

Edited January 4, 2020 by James Gautreau

[James Regan + 1,776]

17 hours ago, Papillon said:

On the plus side though sir, the production of heroin via the poppy there went through the roof, so swings and roundabouts ...

This is an instance where one should not laugh deep down but the wording is so good that you have to. 

@Papillon Very good point and this was one of the main factors Tony Blair allowed UK Troops to enter the war in Afghanistan in order to disrupt the huge amounts of Heroin heading for the UK. Goat Herders is actually a slant on a fighting force derived from the Mujahideen (Jihadists) who managed to kick the Big Bear from Afghanistan and we’re most certainly not equipped as goat herders during operation Anaconda and such.

Afghanistan was basically a weapons Expo....

 

Edited January 4, 2020 by James Regan

[James Gautreau + 86]

The last time we took out a major military commander was 1943 when we blasted Admiral Yamamoto, the architect of the Pearl Harbor attack, out of the sky. That was in the middle of a world war. And the hits just keep on coming.