americavchina.com

[Guest]

Look up mate. In fairness he is referring to Tom and Ron etc I believe.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 minutes ago, Marcin said:

How I can tell this scenario is developing ?

It is happening right now, in slow motion.  Grain shipments from the USA and Canada are sitting in ships that will not be unloaded.  Chinese ships are under US embargo, driving up ship charter rates through the roof (for tankers especially).  China National Shipping Co is banned from the USA and cannot load at US Ports.  Huawai is banned from the USA.  It likely will be banned in Canada. The US has tariffs between 25% and 50% on Chinese manufactured goods and raw material such as steel plate.   Korea is buying from the USA instead of suppliers in China.  It is all around you.  The world is disengaging. 

[Marcin + 519]

33 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Look up mate. In fairness he is referring to Tom and Ron etc I believe.

The discussion was about China, I should have not added "and EU". "And EU" should be in the story "US and EU have finally designed common technology and trade strategy to cope with Chinese domination".

But with intelligent people here repeating only: China will collapse under own weight, everybody will decouple of China, US is so exceptional and China backwards, unfortunately China already won.

It is well after midnight in Warsaw, ( 深圳) I have to go to sleep.

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Marcin
typo

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

Readers might wish to take note that, stripped to its essence, the USA is not really a trading nation.  the total value of US trade worldwide is about 11% of its GNP.   That is not very much.  And a lot of that is with its immediate neighbors, Canada and Mexico.  

China could impose a 500% tariff on all US goods and kick all Americans out of the country, and it would have little practical difference, except in some niche areas such as pig meat and fresh lobsters. 

[Marcin + 519]

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Readers might wish to take note that, stripped to its essence, the USA is not really a trading nation.  the total value of US trade worldwide is about 11% of its GNP.   That is not very much.  And a lot of that is with its immediate neighbors, Canada and Mexico.  

China could impose a 500% tariff on all US goods and kick all Americans out of the country, and it would have little practical difference, except in some niche areas such as pig meat and fresh lobsters. 

You are right that trade is not important for the US (the % is wrong, should be trade in goods is about 23-24% of GNP) The same is about China. Both largest economies are domestic focused. This is both good and bad for US. Good is that US really can decouple from China. Bad is that China is more woven into global supply chains each year, so world will not decouple from China. I predict that 1. US will develop common strategy with EU to contain China or 2. US will isolate itself on North America continent.

Geography is your destiny. Half of human population lives 1 day of land/sea travel from Chinese borders.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Marcin
Typo

[Marcin + 519]

7 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Marcin, I don't see you on the geopolitics forum which I am currently on. No good results for socialists lately. 

If Senator McCarthy is virtually present I am sure you will not miss me.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

58 minutes ago, remake it said:

This is a long presentation from a non-Chinese China expert to a US audience which shows that if you choose to think of China from a Western perspective you will consistently draw poor conclusions.

The title of his slide was: 

When China Rules this World, the End of the Western World, and the rise of a New Global Order. 

But yeah, he's totally on the up and up and not opinionated at all. 

Your definition of "poor conclusions" are any that don't agree with that title? Feihua

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

37 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

I challenge you to find one American, even one, who knows the identity of the President of the European Union  (outside of the diplomatic corps, that is).  You won't find him; that American does not exist. 

< *sigh* >

It's not the President of the European Union, it's the President of the European Commission. Or perhaps you are referring to the President of the European Council.

Junker - Horrid President of European Commission

Tusk - Horrid President of European Council

Tusk - Horrid album by Fleetwood Mac

 

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4176-eu-calls-for-sanctions-against-italy/#comment-31864

 

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/7271-no-deal-brexit-vs-operation-fear-globalist-pushback-impact-to-world-economies-and-oil/?page=4#comment-63

 

[remake it + 288]

4 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Your definition of "poor conclusions" are any that don't agree with that title? Feihua

Read the many posts in this and other China-centric threads and the examples of poor conclusions are bountiful with Mr van Eck recently winning the race to the bottom as quickly addressed with great polish.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Marcin said:

You are right that trade is not important for the US (the % is wrong, should be trade in goods is about 23-24% of GNP) The same is about China. Both largest economies are domestic focused. This is both good and bad for US. Good is that US really can decouple from China. Bad is that China is more woven into global supply chains each year, so world will not decouple from China. I predict that 1. US will develop common strategy with EU to contain China or 2. US will isolate itself on North America continent.

Geography is your destination. Half of human population lives 1 day of land/sea travel from Chinese borders.

China is closer to 38%. The 11% number for U.S. sounded right, I believe that's our exports. The 23% number is inbound plus outbound. 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/trade-gdp-ratio

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Marcin said:

My view is know your enemy. China IS enemy of both US and EU. Even democratic China would be our enemy simply because it is way too big for this planet. It does not matter that Chinese are nice people, there is simply too many of them. Our globe would be much better place if no country larger than US exist. China as a developed country populated by 18% of global population will dominate this planet in a very sinister way, no matter whether democratic or dictatorship.

Using a better word than enemy might be a good idea. I like opponent, but this is a good source for alternatives. https://www.powerthesaurus.org/enemy/synonyms

Enemy implies a win lose game. Opponent does too but is softer, so maybe rival would be even better. Just my opinion. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Marcin said:

Oh come on you will not suddenly hide behind this generic statement.

 I do not know anybody that is against any other person of any country just because of citizenship. So I am not against Americans, Chinese or even North Koreans, even if admit that delusions of the latter are simple clinical cases above all.

I am against human rights record of China, but my unbiased attitude of outside observer allows me to notice a lot of positive decisions and policies of Chinese meritocracy.

By definition, United States is oligarchy, noty China. There was a paper by US scholars proving this scientifically, by following real policies of US not the narrative/propaganda of mass media. In China place of your birth is not your predestination like in the US. There are many ways of advance in the society (one is career in Communist Party).

 

You are really off the mark about rising up in America. I would guess that one has more opportunity here than anywhere in the world. That i why we have millions of immigrants every year. They come from every country in the world to try to have a better life here. Many of us come from very humble beginnings and every generation has, in general, had a better lifestyle than the prior except for possibly during the Civil War and the Great Depression. Please do tell us what countries offer better opportunities to advance oneself. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Junker - Horrid President of European Commission

Tusk - Horrid President of European Council

Tusk - Horrid album by Fleetwood Mac

Ja, ja, but you went and looked it up, now c'mon,  fess up.......

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Please do tell us what countries offer better opportunities to advance oneself. 

None, except possibly Israel, but then only if you are Jewish, and then only if you have some connection such as having married the daughter of a rich and influential Israeli.     If you have not accomplished that, then move to the USA,  As did Elon Musk, from South Africa. 

[Marcin + 519]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

China is closer to 38%. The 11% number for U.S. sounded right, I believe that's our exports. The 23% number is inbound plus outbound. 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/trade-gdp-ratio

Yes these numbers are correct. More important part of the comment was about size and destiny of geography.

[Marcin + 519]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

and every generation has, in general, had a better lifestyle than the prior except for possibly during the Civil War and the Great Depression. 

This was right till about 1990, not any longer

[Marcin + 519]

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Using a better word than enemy might be a good idea. I like opponent, but this is a good source for alternatives. https://www.powerthesaurus.org/enemy/synonyms

Enemy implies a win lose game. Opponent does too but is softer, so maybe rival would be even better. Just my opinion. 

Yes , for entity that small like US with 4% of global population, or EU with 7% of global population ENEMY is the right name of win/loose game competing with 18% population behemoth (with BRI  force multiplier half of global population)

For EU&US banded together opponent or rival is more appriopriate because even when you loose you are not trashed.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Marcin
Typo

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

9 minutes ago, Marcin said:

Yes these numbers are correct. More important part of the comment was about size and destiny of geography.

Population can be good or bad, depending. For instance, how happy would China be with a massive illegal immigration problem. Watching Remake IT video linked above by Martin Jacques he supposed that China GDP will double the US by 2030. Whether that's true or not, given that the Belt and Road initiative intends to connect that 65% of the world population to China, well, roads go both ways. How happy will China be with vast immigration from poorer countries they've essentially invited in? I'm going to say, not very. 

[Marcin + 519]

7 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Population can be good or bad, depending. For instance, how happy would China be with a massive illegal immigration problem. Watching Remake IT video linked above by Martin Jacques he supposed that China GDP will double the US by 2030. Whether that's true or not, given that the Belt and Road initiative intends to connect that 65% of the world population to China, well, roads go both ways. How happy will China be with vast immigration from poorer countries they've essentially invited in? I'm going to say, not very. 

Interesting subject and actually I do not know. But I think it would be sth more like pragmatic but strict Singapore than insanely effective but not pragmatic isolation a’la Japan. I would speculate this way.

[Marcin + 519]

Jacques was too optimistic with his predictions or maybe he was talking about PPP GDP. Never the less his book is great.

[Marcin + 519]

7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 

Why on earth would Americans even think about the EU/  Much less care about it. I challenge you to find one American, even one, who knows the identity of the President of the European Union  (outside of the diplomatic corps, that is).  You won't find him; that American does not exist. 

Marcin does not grasp this.  He is living in an academic cocoon in central Poland.  Not in Kansas. Or Ohio. 

I grasp this, i commented about this arrogance coupled with ignorance behaviour of US already 50 times. But i would repeat US alone too small, EU alone too small, together are enough vs China. 

[remake it + 288]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

How happy will China be with vast immigration from poorer countries they've essentially invited in? I'm going to say, not very. 

This is completely back to front thinking as one of many reasons for Belt & Road is to lift lesser economies so that they will not feel compelled to leave their country of origin and this many will know is not something the USA had ever put in motion outside of recovery from wars.  

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

4 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Ja, ja, but you went and looked it up, now c'mon,  fess up.......

Nope.  I've written about these guys before, and provided links to some of my earlier comments.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I don't think so.  A lot of the posters here are oilmen.  Why would you think some oilman in the oilfields of Texas or Oklahoma even thinks at all about the EU?  Why on earth would they?  It means nothing to them, does not affect their lives.  I don't think they give it even a passing thought.  I think you are seeing bogeymen behind every tree, and it is distorting your vision. 

Americans certainly do not give a damn about the EU.  Americans have no interest.  Try to grasp that. 

This really bothers people from other countries.  My immediate family lives in the Midwest (Illinois) and they couldn't give a hoot about what's going on in other countries.  It's not that they don't think important things happen in other countries; it just has no effect on their lives one way or another.  Prove otherwise!  One thing that strikes them as incredible is when some Democrat (usually) or some strong lefty shows much concern about how bad something makes us look in the eyes of the world/other countries.  The reason it strikes them as incredible is that they, and I, don't care what other countries have to say about our internal affairs, at all.  Our affairs are up to us to solve and up to us alone.  In fact, what other countries think should be important to us in the U.S. doesn't matter to us either.  Now you can argue about whether or not we are going to handle our own affairs but, you see once again, we don't care what you think.  Triggered yet?

Jan is right.