Nord Stream 2 Offshore Natural Gas Pipeline Project (Infographics)

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Generally, I support increasing oil & gas pipeline infrastructure pretty much anywhere in the world, regardless of the geopolitics entangled in any particular pipeline.

Pipelines are genetally the best and safest way to reliably transport hydocarbons over long distances.

LNG can be shipped between continents by ship, and that is a totally separate discussion.

U.S. is dead set against Nord Stream 2, but I think that it is a good expansion of the global oil & gas pipeline infrastructure.  

Yes, I know Trump dislikes Nord Stream 2, because he wants to sell U.S. LNG to EU.  I disagree.  My question is: why not both Nord Stream 2 and also offer LNG as an option to end users.  Competition is good.

 

Anyway, some infographics (continued in the next comment due to 2MB restrictions per comment)

Nord Stream 2 Offshore Natural Gas Pipeline Project (Infographics)

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Finally I can tell you US Congress significantly watered down sanctions against Nord Stream II

What we have according to Ivan Tkachev - senior economic journalist for RBC 

Quote

 

Now it’s official: NDAA won’t include any of the sanctions discussed in July-Aug (sov debt in particular). Instead minor provisions, I’d say: • Official non-recognition of Crimea • Nord Stream 2 sanctions • 120-d period before any intent of withdrawal from Open Skies Treaty.

Besides, wind-down period of 30 days would be available for Allseas vessel supplier (when it can finish work without risk of being sanctioned). • Repair and maintenance are not covered by sanctions. • Plus, usual national security waiver is available to US president. (2)

Actually the impression is that Congress wants symbolic sanctions without creating real troubles for Nord Stream 2. • Sanctions against vessel underwriters/insurers are off the table • Sanctions authority will expire after 5 years or earlier (v. 10 years in prior version)

Meanwhile three pipe-laying vessels of Allseas are working near Denmark’s Bornholm island, according to

@MarineTraffic

. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is some 85% complete. (3)

 

According to western orientated bloomberg columnist Leonid Bershidsky

Quote

 

The long-threatened U.S. sanctions against Nord Stream 2, Russia’s $10.5 billion natural gas pipeline to Germany, will finally take effect next week, but their timing and design can only slow down the project’s now-certain completion. Even so, Ukraine, the primary injured party from the new pipeline, is grateful for small favors from Washington.

 

 

The sanctions — crafted by Senators Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, and Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat — have been attached to the 2020 National Defense Appropriations Act, which already has been approved by Congress; President Donald Trump has promised to sign it. The State and Treasury Departments will have 60 days to present to Congress a list of vessels involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 and another Russian pipeline, TurkStream, and of people and firms that provided these ships. Those people and entities will have 30 days to wind down their business or they will be barred from entry tthe U.S. and could have their assets frozenThe sanctions come too late to hurt TurkStream, which runs under the Black Sea to the western area of Turkey. The underwater part of the pipeline is complete and even filled with Russian natural gas. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the pipeline would be operational in early January.

Nord Stream 2, a twin pipeline running under the Baltic Sea that allows Russia to avoid shipping gas overland through Ukraine, is another matter. Gazprom, the monopoly exporter of Russian pipeline gas, originally intended to complete it by the end of the year, and still had a chance to do in late October, when the Danish government gave permission to lay pipe in its waters. But inclement weather has played havoc with the construction, and earlier this week, the project’s operating company promised completion “in the coming months.” In late November, Dmitri Kozak, Russia’s deputy prime minister in charge of energy, said Nord Stream 2 would begin operation “in mid-2020.”

Even with the effective 90-day grace period allowed by the U.S. sanctions, the last 168 kilometers of each of the two strings of pipe may not be laid by the time the punitive measures kick in. It’s unlikely that Allseas, the Swiss-based contractor now working on Nord Stream 2, will defy the U.S. restrictions if it’s not done in time. Then, Gazprom will need to use the only pipe-laying vessel it owns, the Academician Chersky, to finish the job — a slow and iffy scenario, even if Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Nord Stream 2 won’t be halted. 

Congress could have been much harsher with its sanctions, though. It could have hit Nord Stream 2’s financial investors, all major European energy companies: Engie SA, Uniper SE, OMV AG, Wintershall Dea GmbH and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. It could have sanctioned Russian debt. It could have made it impossible to import equipment for the construction of Russian pipelines and do repairs and maintenance on them. All of these measures have been considered at various times, but struck down in order to avoid a major confrontation with the European Union and an upheaval in financial markets.

As things stand, the punitive measures have the appearance of a vindictive gesture, a nuisance move that won’t change what comes next. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grand plan of supplying gas both to Europe bypassing Ukraine and to China through the just-opened Power of Siberia pipeline can no longer be scuppered. 

The likely Nord Stream 2 delay may even be beneficial for Russia, in a way. Competition from Middle Eastern and U.S. liquefied natural gas and warm weather have driven down the price of Russian pipeline gas in Europe. In the three months through September, the average gas price, $169.8 per 1,000 cubic meters, was 18% lower than in the preceding three months and 32% lower than a year before. The last time Gazprom faced such prices was in 2004. Increasing supplies in such a market situation would send prices tumbling even further.

No matter how carefully the U.S. sanctions are crafted to spare European allies, Germany is still irritated. On Thursday, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas tweeted in response to the U.S. measures that “the European energy policy will be decided in Europe, not in the U.S. We fully reject external interference and extraterritorial sanctions.” Theoretically, the European Union could even retaliate by raising duties on American LNG.

But the U.S. sanctions, belated, weak and irritating to the German government as they are, still aren’t completely pointless. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office thanked U.S. Congress for them on Thursday, and while Ukraine routinely thanks Western governments for sanctioning Russia, this time there’s a specific reason for the gratitude. Ukraine and Russia are locked in a dispute over the future of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine’s pipeline system. The current contract runs out at the end of the year, and Ukraine wants a long-term agreement to replace it while Russia doesn’t want to commit itself. The possibility of a protracted delay to Nord Stream 2 strengthens the Ukrainian position because it makes Russia nervous, and time is running out for the EU-brokered negotiations if supplies of Russian gas to Europe are to continue without interruption. 

 

This russian ship is called Academician Chersky

 

Quote

 

Gazprom has purchased a pipe-laying ship which would allow the company to build undersea pipelines despite sanctions. The new vessel may be used to build the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline to Europe.

Russian gas-producing giant Gazprom has confirmed the purchase of the Jascon 18 pipe-laying ship. The new name of the vessel is Akademik Cherskiy.

"The company bought a pipe-laying ship for shelf operations. It is expected to be used in the Okhotsk Sea in the near future. The vessel can be used not only as a pipe-layer but also as a lift crane for heavy constructions," Gazprom Deputy Chairman Vitaly Markelov said.

The 150-meter-long Jascon 18 was ordered by Sea Trucks Group Limited (STG) in 2011. In May 2015, STG sold the ship to an unnamed buyer. Recently, Gazprom confirmed the deal.

 

The ship was handed to the Russian pipeline-building company MRTS. Gazprom and MRTS have long been partners in constructing undersea gas pipelines. Last year, Gazprombank granted a $1 billion loan to MRTS. The money was used to buy the Jascon 18, the Russian online newspaper Vzglyad reported.

 

Taking into account the fact that the construction of two runs of Nord Stream-2 has been estimated at €10 billion, the purchase of the new ship was not rational. However, the real purpose of the purchase was to minimize political risks for further pipeline projects, the article read.

According to Gazprom, the Akademik Cherskiy will be used at the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye gas field, in the Sea of Okhotsk. This oil field was included in US sanctions lists against Russia. The Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field is expected to be the resource base for the Power of Siberia-3 pipeline delivering gas to China.

Like Power of Siberia and Power of Siberia-2, Power of Siberia-3 is part of Russia’s energy strategy aimed at diversifying gas deliveries. Selling gas to China would help Russia decrease its reliance on the European market.Create Difficulties for Nord Stream 2 Construction Via NATO Friends

The new pipe-laying vessel would allow Gazprom to operate in the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field despite Western sanctions.

Gazprom did not announce the use of the Akademik Chersky for the construction of Nord Stream-2, but it cannot be ruled out, the article read.

Formerly, Russia had to hire foreign companies to build undersea pipeline infrastructure. For example, Italy’s Saipem and Switzerland’s Allseas build Nord Stream under the Baltic Sea.

The two companies were also expected to build the undersea parts of South Stream. However, after the project was suspended Saipem filed a lawsuit against Gazprom. It was unofficially reported that Gazprom wanted to offer a new contract to Saipem to settle the lawsuit. Gazprom opened bidding for Nord Stream-2. The results of the tender will be announced later this year.

line Cut Europe's Reliance on Russian Gas?

However, now Gazprom is capable of building the Nord Stream-2 on its own. The new pipe-laying vessel will decrease company’s reliance on foreign partners and bypass US sanctions.

As for Nord Stream-2, despite the fact that the European Commission has repeatedly opposed the project there is no legal basis to ban it. The pipeline will not run across European territory thus it is not subject to the EU energy regulations.

As a result, risks are high that the US will try to stop the project by pressing foreign companies not to work with Gazprom. The Akademik Cherskiy may be Russia’s plan B in case of new US restrictive measures

 

 

 

My commentary

Of course US could have done much more to stop Nord Stream but it didnt really want to.

Biggest beneficiary of Nord Stream II is Germany which will be biggest gas hub in Europe. It will have 110 bilion cubic meters of cheap gas and will redistribute this commodity through Europe which will strenghen greatly German position as strongest country in Europe. 

In a situation where most Western European countries support the construction of Nord Stream, the US cannot really block it without a crisis in transatlanctic relations that is even greater than at present. The interests of the European Union and the US in relation to Russia and even more China is just diverging and if the US wants to have an ally in Europe's countries against biggest competitor China they cannot block this project and reject economic interests of allies in western Europe. 

Russia is regional power strong military but weak economically and it cant really undermine global hegemony of USA.

China can do it and it has been doing so for last two decades until the American establishment finally woke up thanks to Trump.

In addition, over the years, Russia will be a growing exporter of LNG = even today it can export circa 30 milions tons of LNG. At present, it has already built the Siberian Force gas pipeline to China with an assumed final capacity of 44 billion m3 of gas after the regegotiation of the contract with China for an additional 6 billion m3.

In addition, it is very likely that a western gas pipe will be created through Mongolia, which will transport additional 30 billion m3 of gas, and this really suits Russia because in connection with the developed fields and the easier and shorter construction of the gas pipeline through Mongolia, it will be much cheaper to build than the eastern pipe.

I will only add that through the eastern pipe only pure methane will be transported, not natural gas because special gas station is created for this purpose - the Amur station. Its rarely mentioned in western press but you must take under consideration it can significantly change the profitability of the entire project in favor of Gazprom.

Imho the more the US is blocking Gazprom's gas pipeline in Europe, the more Russians will be pumping LNG and NG to Asia, = prices there are and  will be significantly higher in the future  than in Europe so even in this economic aspects its more profitable to send your LNG to Asia than to Europe.

Apart from that Markel agreed to build 4 LNG terminal so Germany will buy some ammount of LNG from USA so I think thats not bad deal for US.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Tomasz

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/16/2019 at 10:46 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

U.S. is dead set against Nord Stream 2, but I think that it is a good expansion of the global oil & gas pipeline infrastructure.  

Yes, I know Trump dislikes Nord Stream 2, because he wants to sell U.S. LNG to EU.  I disagree.  My question is: why not both Nord Stream 2 and also offer LNG as an option to end users.  Competition is good.

 

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

Of course US could have done much more to stop Nord Stream but it didnt really want to.

Biggest beneficiary of Nord Stream II is Germany which will be biggest gas hub in Europe. It will have 110 bilion cubic meters of cheap gas and will redistribute this commodity through Europe which will strenghen greatly German position as strongest country in Europe. 

In a situation where most Western European countries support the construction of Nord Stream, the US cannot really block it without a crisis in transatlanctic relations that is even greater than at present.

It was known from the beginning, since 2005 that Germany is too strong and United States too overstretched globally to stop Nord Stream 1 and later Nord Stream 2 construction. It was also known that major victim of the pipeline would be Ukraine as it will loose significant transfer fees and its energy security will be significantly reduced. Belarus is attached so strongly to Russia that I do not count it as a separate country. It also caused temporary problems for Poland, but it built LNG terminal, has good pipeline connections with Germany and domestic extraction is 30% of demand.

For Poland annual imports of 10-12 billion sqm of Russian natural gas is about 1.0% of GDP, it increases to 1.2% of GDP if half of imports is done through LNG terminal and not from Russia (LNG is more expensive than Russian gas, but it is price worth paying for energy independence).

For Ukraine Nord Stream would also not be such disaster as it has significant domestic natural gas output 20 billion sqm. Furthermore Ukraine was gradually optimizing and decreasing its very high natural gas consumption, and thus gradually decreasing Russian natural gas imports.

So situation in our part of Europe was slowly evolving in good direction, Ukraine was slowly modernizing. Trade and business relations with EU were increasing and balancing ties with Russia. But still Ukraine was in Russian sphere of influence.

And then suddenly in 2014 came Americans, used Ukrainians as stupid tools, conducted quick coup d'etat and later CIA operatives left, leaving both Ukrainians and Russians in deep sh*t.

For Poland it is dangerous to have border with war torn country. Ukraine is economically 10+ years backwards due to war and actual partition of the country.

When I read at present about US being against Nord Stream I know it is only for show, pure hypocrisy. Major task of creating multi-year war, conflict in Eastern Europe was already accomplished.

It is historically proven that Empires past its prime are creating havoc on purpose, in order to engage and weaken its enemies.

I have this dubious privilege to live in interesting times:

a) for first 15 years of my life our Big Brother was Soviet Union - terrible empire, much more cruel to Russians than to satellite nations (like Poland).

b) In early 1990s United States became our next Big Brother. Situation dramatically changed to the better. But since early 2010s US Empire is gradually weakening, so it cannot be so honest and generous as in the past. So it has to do some dirty tricks like Ukraine or Syria to prolong its existence and hegemony,

c) now we are all waiting for the next Big Brother: China. This will be the first Big Brother that will be Big Brother for all countries, also for our former Big Brothers: Russia and the United States, but this fact is not reassuring at all.

[dukeNukem + 80]

@Tomasz generally agree with your point, however biggest beneficiary for Nord Stream 2 will be Austria, not Germany. Germany will get only 10-15% of NS2 gas volume, most of this stuff going to Baumgarten, Vienna. Btw, for  Turkish Stream gas final destination spot is Baumgarten as well. Looks like Austria going to be biggest and major European gas hub.  

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Update:

US Concedes Defeat On Russia's Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Even As Sanctions Passed

A new Bloomberg headline reads “U.S. Concedes Defeat on Gas Pipeline It Sees as Russian Threat” just following new sanctions included in the House and Senate passed 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) this week.

But two administration officials tell Bloomberg it's too little too late, despite Trump's heightened rhetoric of calling Germany “a captive to Russia” and charging Berlin with essentially giving “billions” of dollars to Russia:

Senior U.S. administration officials, who asked not to be identified discussing the administration’s take on the project, said sanctions that passed Congress on Tuesday as part of a defense bill are too late to have any effect. The U.S. instead will try to impose costs on other Russian energy projects, one of the officials added.

... 

 

...  Gazprom head Alexei Miller has for months said it's “past the point of no return” and that nothing would derail it. “We are working from the idea that Nord Stream 2 will be realized strictly in accordance with the planned timetable,” he previously told shareholders. 

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

On 12/17/2019 at 12:33 PM, Tomasz said:

China can do it and it has been doing so for last two decades until the American establishment finally woke up thanks to Trump.

The United States is dangerously close to losing China to Russian NG. Man, once you have pipelines in place, church is out with regard to someone trying to peddle LNG. Pipelines are easy; LNG is complex. It is so dangerous to allow Putin a form of natural gas hegemony in Europe, Pakistan, Turkey and China. This is nothing short of Russian hybrid warfare.

The US is the biggest buyer of German luxury cars by a long shot. 25% tariffs on these could have nipped this pipeline on the floor of the Baltic Sea in the bud. IMO, this would have been much smarter than a protracted trade war with China . . . one in which there will be no winners. Putin is looking to expand his influence. He is not a nice guy. The US needs China and India as oil and gas purchasers. We have a narrow window of opportunity to seal this deal.

Germany? They're now under Mr. Putin's thumb. What a short memory! 

Nord Stream, the Pakistan pipeline, TurkStream--these are all part of Putin's plan for energy hegemony. 

[dukeNukem + 80]

4 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

The United States is dangerously close to losing China to Russian NG. Man, once you have pipelines in place, church is out with regard to someone trying to peddle LNG. Pipelines are easy; LNG is complex. It is so dangerous to allow Putin a form of natural gas hegemony in Europe, Pakistan, Turkey and China. This is nothing short of Russian hybrid warfare.

The US is the biggest buyer of German luxury cars by a long shot. 25% tariffs on these could have nipped this pipeline on the floor of the Baltic Sea in the bud. IMO, this would have been much smarter than a protracted trade war with China . . . one in which there will be no winners. Putin is looking to expand his influence. He is not a nice guy. The US needs China and India as oil and gas purchasers. We have a narrow window of opportunity to seal this deal.

Germany? They're now under Mr. Putin's thumb. What a short memory! 

Nord Stream, the Pakistan pipeline, TurkStream--these are all part of Putin's plan for energy hegemony. 

What Pakistan pipeline are you talking about? 

 

[John Foote + 1,135]

5 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Germany? They're now under Mr. Putin's thumb. What a short memory! 

To be fair, from a historical perspective, the Russians should fear Germany. I consider France and Napoleon a one off.

Any country that bets their energy source too much on one source, is foolish. Even if it looks to be the best economic solution, it's not. You just aren't factoring risk management and history.

[Boat + 1,323]

I hope Trump would use quotas against a country like Germany when 1. There is a trade imbalance. 2. Russia creates mischief around the world and in Europe. 3. The US selling FF to Germany would help the imbalance. 4. Trumps point of Germany not paying their fair share for the military and nuclear shield the US provides. 
I understand Trump thinking Germany’s pipeline connection is a slap in the face. 

 

 

 

[kommersant + 13]

Its between Germany and Russia so none of your business nor interest USA. You would better sell your expensive LNG to Asia where prices are higher because in Europe we dont need your LNG which is about 50 % more expensive than pipe gas.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4205007?from=main_3

Quote

Photo: Denis Sinyakov / Reuters

The pipe did not lay down

How to complete the Nord Stream-2 in conditions of sanctions

•  "Kommersant" from21.12.2019, 15:26

On Saturday night, US President Donald Trump signed into law on the defense budget, which includes a clause on the imposition of sanctions against companies that provide laying services for the Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream pipelines. The Swiss Allseas, whose vessels, until recently, in emergency mode laid the last section of the Nord Stream 2 near the island of Bornholm, immediately announced the suspension of work. It is likely that the company will be forced to abandon an almost completed project. According to Kommersant’s information, in this case Gazprom will complete the remaining 130 km of pipe using its own Akademik Chersky pipe-laying machine and the Fortuna barge owned by Mezhregiontruboprovodstroy. The latter already has experience laying the Nord Stream-2. Such a scenario could delay the pipeline’s commissioning for several months.

The Swiss company Allseas has been doing its best for the past three weeks to complete its work on Nord Stream 2 as quickly as possible. On December 21, the world's largest pipe-laying vessel, Pioneering Spirit, laid about two-thirds of the first string of the gas pipeline in a section in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark - the last pipe section left unfinished. The Solitaire, which cannot lay pipes as fast, meanwhile laid about half the second string. Thus, on December 21, according to Kommersant’s estimate, the total length of the unfinished section of the gas pipeline in a single-line design was about 120-130 km — 5% of the total length.

However, on the night of December 21, US President Donald Trump signed the long-announced sanctions against Nord Stream-2, which prohibit the provision of any services for its construction under the threat of blocking US assets and the impossibility of doing business with American companies. Moreover, the norm of the bill was formulated somewhat ambiguously - it entered into force immediately, but gave potential victims sanctions 30 days to curtail the prohibited activity. Allseas, as a global player who values its future contracts with Western companies, announced the suspension of laying immediately after Donald Trump signed the law. According to Marinetraffic , both pipe layers remain in place marked "pipe laying is suspended."

 

 

Now, according to a report by Allseas ( .pdf ), the company will wait for instructions from the US authorities on how to curtail its work in order to comply with technological and environmental safety requirements.

There is a possibility, sources say Kommersant, that Allseas will allow laying for some time to “drop” the pipe in a safe area.

In principle, the modern laying of offshore gas pipelines does not have to be carried out necessarily continuously, and the pipe layer can “unhook” the pipe, for example, in case of adverse weather conditions, which make the continuation of the installation unsafe. Later, this end of the pipe is again lifted from the bottom to the pipe-laying vessel using a crane and work continues.

However, it is highly likely that US authorities will not allow Allseas to carry out any additional work. In this case, Gazprom will have to complete the gas pipeline on its own. The company has its own pipe layer, Academic Chersky, which can lay pipes up to 1.5 meters in diameter, that is, it can lay pipes for Nord Stream-2, whose maximum diameter with concrete coating reaches 1.4 meters. The problem is that the vessel is in Nakhodka and even if it leaves the port in the near future, it will be able to arrive in the Baltic in about a month.

In addition, the company Mezhregiontruboprovodstroi (MRTS) with the Fortuna pipe-laying barge already participated in the construction of Nord Stream-2. In 2018, this ship laid the first 13 km of both pipelines in the territorial waters of Russia. The barge as a whole is designed to work in coastal waters, it is flat-bottomed, that is, more sensitive to sea waves and weather than Allseas sea vessels. Nevertheless, it is technically capable of laying the Nord Stream-2 pipes to a depth of 200 meters, which would be enough to complete the project. Unlike the "Academician Chersky", the barge "Fortuna" is a couple of days from the place of possible work - in the German port of Mukran. Gazprom declined to comment, an MRTS representative was unavailable on Saturday, Kommersant sent a request to the company.

Nord Stream 2 AG, the gas pipeline construction operator, confirmed that Allseas has stopped laying. They noted that “we, together with the companies supporting the project, will work to complete the construction of the gas pipeline as soon as possible,” and added that “completion of the project is very important for European energy security.”

If not for sanctions, Allseas could have completed laying the pipeline already in January, since the Pioneering Spirit led it at a speed of 5 km per day, and Solitaire - 3 km. If now the Swiss company will be forced to curtail operations, and only the less powerful Fortuna will continue laying, the project completion deadlines will increase. So, Fortuna can lay such a pipe at a speed of about 1.5 km per day, which will take about three months to complete the laying of both threads. However, given the difficult weather conditions in the Baltic during the winter, Fortuna will probably not be able to operate continuously this season, as it succeeded in the triple-sized double-shell Pioneering Spirit. Thus, the deadline for commissioning the gas pipeline, announced in November by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak - mid-2020 - and seemed somewhat pessimistic, now looks quite likely.

German businessmen threatened with sanctions for Nord Stream 2

Representatives of Ukraine, who on Saturday announced details of a future new gas transit agreement with Gazprom, did not hide their joy at the imposition of US sanctions. "It looks like the best New Year gift to all of us," - he wrote in the Facebook head of "Naftogaz" Andrew Kobolev. Prime Minister of Ukraine Alexey Goncharuk wrote on Twitter that the sanctions strengthened the country's position in negotiations with Russia on gas. “Thus, sanctions provide stable markets and competitive prices for all European consumers. Nord Stream 2 should not be completed, ”he said.

Meanwhile, the volume of transit agreed upon by the parties - 65 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 40 billion cubic meters in the next four years - clearly implies the commissioning of the first Nord Stream-2 pipeline next year and its full operation in 2021 year.

This schedule was initially understood during the implementation of the project and is due to the fact that the receiving infrastructure in Germany (the Eugal gas pipeline) will not be fully ready until autumn 2020. Note, approximately such needs for transit through Ukraine , Kommersant anticipated back in March 2018. In 2018, transit through Ukraine amounted to 88 billion cubic meters.

 

 

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/20/2019 at 12:18 AM, John Foote said:

To be fair, from a historical perspective, the Russians should fear Germany. I consider France and Napoleon a one off.

Any country that bets their energy source too much on one source, is foolish. Even if it looks to be the best economic solution, it's not. You just aren't factoring risk management and history.

As far as I remember Germany natural gas imports are diversified: they also import gas from Norway and Netherlands and have capability to import LNG. Imports from Russia should be most stable due to natural gas reserves/output ration.

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/19/2019 at 7:12 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

The United States is dangerously close to losing China to Russian NG. Man, once you have pipelines in place, church is out with regard to someone trying to peddle LNG. Pipelines are easy; LNG is complex. It is so dangerous to allow Putin a form of natural gas hegemony in Europe, Pakistan, Turkey and China. This is nothing short of Russian hybrid warfare.

The US is the biggest buyer of German luxury cars by a long shot. 25% tariffs on these could have nipped this pipeline on the floor of the Baltic Sea in the bud. IMO, this would have been much smarter than a protracted trade war with China . . . one in which there will be no winners. Putin is looking to expand his influence. He is not a nice guy. The US needs China and India as oil and gas purchasers. We have a narrow window of opportunity to seal this deal.

Germany? They're now under Mr. Putin's thumb. What a short memory! 

Nord Stream, the Pakistan pipeline, TurkStream--these are all part of Putin's plan for energy hegemony. 

I think United States has no influence on Chinese pipeline policies (since 2006) as all these pipelines are going through China, Russia and their vassal countries ("stans" in Central Asia). LNG imports are inevitable when you are island or peninsula with hostile neighbour (Japan, South Korea), all other prefer pipelines cause are much cheaper as some commenters noticed.

Russia, Germany , United States have 1 thing in common, their relative importance globally is diminishing as center of Earths economic gravity moves to East, South and SE Asia (majority of global population).

What Germany have that Russia wants ? Old German people ? No natural resources ? Territory thas is 45 times smaller than Russia ? Name one factor I would believe in Russian threat theory.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Well Marcin Ive never been in China but my current girlfriend is sinologist.

Im also keen admirer of China but you should never forget that despite colossal development in last 40 years with no previous precedence its still rather a poor country.

As far as I know from my girlfriend  something like 1/3 of chinese population has a decent european level of life but you cant forget about the rest.

We can talk about Russia and China and the fact China is booming and Russia lost 90s and now is stagnating but you should not forget that even despite that in comparison even with developing Russia China is poorer country and has a lower HDI.

I dont want to be rude but the hard fact is Russia 2018 HDI Index is currently at 0.824 China 0,758 and Ukraine 0,750.

As I said Ive never been to China bcause it too far away  but  couple of times I was on Ukraine and the fact Chinas HDI Index is still comparable with Ukraine currently poorest country in Europe  and in fact failed state means China has really a very long way to become a developed country.

It of course doesnt change the fact is growing rapidly and one day in not too distant future will become global hegemon but rather not really developed one in comparison with previous leader like declining USA and forgotten Great Britain.

 

Edited December 21, 2019 by Tomasz

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

46 minutes ago, Marcin said:

What Germany have that Russia wants ? Old German people ? No natural resources ? Territory thas is 45 times smaller than Russia ? Name one factor I would believe in Russian threat theory.

Technical know-how. Name one thing Russia exports other than oil and gas. But Germany? Mercedes, Porsche, BMW, Siemens products, orthopedic equipment, drugs out the wazoo, beer. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

3 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Name one thing Russia exports other than oil and gas. 

Weapons. Yes, the best hi-tech weaponry is usually USA, but a lot is far simpler, and their designs tend to be robust and capable. 

And they do export brains. A lot of Russians leave Russia for opportunity, especially with high end science degrees.

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

I'm confused. The Sanctions seem to be stopping the "unstoppable" Nord 2 pipeline? Allseas isn't doing the work now, so who is going to finish? Meanwhile, is all this the work of that Russian puppet Trump? Because if so, I'm even more confused! 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

I'm confused. The Sanctions seem to be stopping the "unstoppable" Nord 2 pipeline? Allseas isn't doing the work now, so who is going to finish? Meanwhile, is all this the work of that Russian puppet Trump? Because if so, I'm even more confused! 

there's only 300 km of pipe left. It takes time to get new contracts issued to lay the remainder. But it will get done. 

Incidently, this creates opportunity for shady contract awards, so individuals close to Putin may actually benefit. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Just now, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

there's only 300 km of pipe left. It takes time to get new contracts issued to lay the remainder. But it will get done. 

Incidently, this creates opportunity for shady contract awards, so individuals close to Putin may actually benefit. 

Shady or no, you still have to build only 300km deep underwater. I have every faith an Allseas could do this, plus two or three others. Can Schoblonik and Sons do it? My magic eight ball says, "No".

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Read about Academic Cherskiy and MRTS Fortuna.

Russia had enough time to prepare for the sanctions.

Nord Stream II is 93 % finish and thats only 160 km left.

 Once again, America treats Europe as its colony, but I hope that European politicians will have the will to oppose it

Edited December 23, 2019 by Tomasz

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

30 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Once again, America treats Europe as its colony

Oh, I don't think that, even in our darkest hour, we ever wanted Europe as a colony. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Can Schoblonik and Sons do it? My magic eight ball says, "No".

there are plenty of Western consultants willing to help including American ones. SAD FACT

Edited December 23, 2019 by Rasmus Jorgensen

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

3 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Shady or no

my point with the shady awards was that it may suit Putin well. The sanctions would have been much more effective imposed a lot earlier... So, the sanctions are not necessarily anti Putin although they appear at first glance. 

Then again I just observe. Things might be what they appear to be.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Rasmus Jorgensen

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 12/21/2019 at 10:46 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Technical know-how. Name one thing Russia exports other than oil and gas. But Germany? Mercedes, Porsche, BMW, Siemens products, orthopedic equipment, drugs out the wazoo, beer. 

Indeed, Russia probably won't sell weapons to Germany

But, if you Americans are interested in what the Russians are ready to sell to the Chinese in the new Cold War, then I recommend an article from Guardian. This is the price of sanctions for Russia that strengthen China's position. Such a small early warning system for ballistic missiles - until now only Russia and the US had such a system, but at your own request the Chinese have just taken a step two decades ahead

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/04/russia-is-helping-china-build-a-missile-defence-system-putin-says

Quote

 

Russian president Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow is helping China build a system to warn of ballistic missile launches.

Since the cold war, only the United States and Russia have had such systems, which involve an array of ground-based radars and space satellites. The systems allow for early spotting of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

 Speaking at an international affairs conference in Moscow on Thursday, Putin said Russia had been helping China develop such a system. He added that “this is a very serious thing that will radically enhance China’s defence capability”.

His statement signalled a new degree of defence cooperation between the two former Communist rivals that have developed increasingly close political and military ties while Beijing and Washington have sunk into a trade war.

In June, Chinese president Xi Jinping called Putin his “best and bosom friend,” adding he cherished their “deep friendship.”

There was no immediate comment from Beijing, but Putin’s claim got a mixed reaction online. On China’s Twitter-like social media platform Weibo, some users cheered “new heights in strategic cooperation”, but others questioned whether Beijing needed Russia’s help with military hardware.

“Once again, Russian bragging! Maybe its linked to their national culture,” said one user. “Chinese wouldn’t brag like that”.

Earlier this week China debuted new military hardware including a “hypersonic” missile experts believe could be difficult for the US to counter. The missile, known as the DF-17, can in theory manoeuvre sharply at many times the speed of sound, making it extremely difficult to defend against.

In August China and Russia accused the United States of stoking a new arms race by testing a cruise missile, just weeks after Washington withdrew from a cold-war era missile control treaty that would have barred the test launch

The ground-launched missile, a conventionally-configured version of the nuclear-capable Tomahawk cruise missile, hit its target after over 500 kilometres of flight during the test, the Pentagon said in a statement.

Ground-launched versions of the missile had been removed from service decades ago, after the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty was signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987.

The treaty’s ban on missiles with ranges between 500km and 5,500km aimed to reduce the ability of both countries to launch a nuclear strike at short notice.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, condemned the launch, but said Moscow was not looking to start a new arms race, and would not deploy any new missiles unless the US did first.

Beijing also attacked the US, warning that the missile test could lead to “another round of the arms race”, and have a “serious negative impact” on international and regional security.”

Additional reporting by Lillian Yang. With Associated Press and Reuters

 

 

I just want to warn you that the more you push Russia to the corner , the more Russia has absolutely no choice and must bet strategically on China. If truly your dream is the entire Mendelev table in a strategic alliance with China and allow the Chinese to use resources throughout Siberia then keep imposing sanctions and strengthening your greatest strategic opponent.

It so happens that the Russians did very solid research during last couple of years and it turned out that the major geopolitical rivals for Russia are now the West and not China.

Therefore, if the opponent is the West approaching the borders of Russia and China comes into conflict with the West, then you have to bet on China. If it also happens that the world's largest exporter of raw materials has a limit of several thousand kilometers with the largest importer, this is something that this alliance strengthens and does not weaken.

You don't like Nord Stream II and that’s OK. But Russia will have to build the Western branch of the Siberian Force - 30 bilion cubic meters, then one more ESPO oil pipeline.

Meanwhile in the gas deposit for the Forces of Siberia, a large amount of lithium was discovered . As I suspect US wanted to cut off the China from lithium by the coup in Bolivia. So they found lithium deposit in Russia.

In general Russia believes that has now no choice in Cold War with West but to  export whatever China wants and thats also Russian newest military technology which the Chinese will not have for a long time.

The West is still imposing sanctions and is constantly approaching the Russian borders militarily in contradiction to promises made back in 1989. 

If you really want this that’s ok it will happen.

Because the blind is the one who thinks that the weaker Russia is, the better for the West.

The weaker Russia, primarily  the stronger China, and if someone disagrees with me, buy a map of Asia.

It so happens that this is probably exactly what Trump was told by experienced Henry Kissinger but I know that most hysterical US Twitter users will write all the time to defend Ukraine destroy Russia with sanctions and then face China.

But the real problem with this thinking for the West is that if you really destroy Russia with sanctions and deprive it of its independence with China than yes maybe one much weaker rival will disappear, but you will strengthen the much more dangerous one immeasurably.

Because so far Russia is trying to defend against the dominance of China and not allow the Chinese to strategic deposits of raw materials - read some sources = its the reason why Chinese still dont invest in russian mineral resources

But, if your dream is to really starve the Russians ,surround them by NATO bases and snatch even Ukraine and Belarus from the Russian sphere of influence then this country has really no choice but to bet on China and let them completely dominate Eurasia.

Well, unless someone really thinks that in exchange for pulling Ukraine into the Western sphere of influence, Russia is establishing a strategic alliance with China after 2014 is worth the candle.

Because it's like trying to pull Scotland into an anti-English alliance and be surprised that the England doesn't like it and have allied with Germany.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Tomasz