Tech cold war is a fact. China tells government offices to remove all foreign computer equipment

[Marcin + 519]

1 hour ago, remake it said:

With utmost respect @Marcin that is a category mistake in your analysis because decoupling is very different from trends of market emergence which would allow a similar basis of comparison as with India and Japan over the next 25 years.

I know this is different  topic. This was just example, to show how fast emergence of Chinese power causes fear in people, like in Jan.

I said this fear should not be that big as US is not Japan. They are really afraid of Chinese domination, when China will no longer need their technology.

The only way out for Japan is to acknowledge all wrongdoings in WW2 (since 1930s). But not like Germany but it has to be with much more emphasis. Otherwise Chinese nationalism will destroy Japan economically or in any other way. Japan exports and even existence of Japanese companies at Chinese market will be forbidden, bad times are coming for Japan. And Japan knows this, I hope next Japan leader will be less genocide and Nazi lover than Abe. Abe at least can say that he has criminal soul imprinted in DNA, because his ancestors being prominent WW2 war criminals.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Marcin
typo

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/23/2019 at 6:36 AM, remake it said:

Looks like the tech war in China is dumping IOS in a big way
The US market is paltry (below data is at March 2019 and today it's estimated that more cell phones are registered than the people

I think we are talking more about software and hardware in general, especially business applications, major operating systems, office applications. Cellular market you are also right about Chinese market power, but this is one easier to replace by domestic soft , and this was already done.

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/23/2019 at 4:02 PM, Jan van Eck said:

To demonstrate just how involved China trade patterns have become, at least in Canada, I invite you to ponder the case of Goodfellow Lumber, a large (probably the largest) Quebec wood processor.  Those guys buy raw logs from Quebec and even next-door Vermont, then mill the logs into planks and sections, for sale into the furniture and construction trades. One item they got into was hardwood flooring.  So oak and maple logs are milled into final shape as tongue-and-groove flooring, then put into containers and shipped from Montreal all the way to some finishing plant in China, there taken out of the containers, and finished by the addition of stain to color, then the polyurethane coatings to make them resistant to wear.  There might be as many as  12 coatings of poly on each plant.  The poly coating is cried between coats, and then the entire finished product is bundled into large boxes of about 78 sq. ft. each, then the boxes are put back into sea containers and shipped back to Montreal, then trucked to the plant south of the city.  From there, the finished product is shipped by truck out to the retail outlets, such as "Lumber Liquidators," and "Home Depot," and then sold to consumers. 

Now, this is poor management, of course; lazy management, done to avoid having to do the work on-site in Quebec or have some local entrepreneur do it.  The Chinese were able to snag that work by offering it at lower prices.  So "price" becomes the determinant of retaining that business.  But if the USA now duties that flooring at 25% or more because it is effectively a product of China, do you seriously think the price advantage will remain?  Of course not.  So then all that sea-trade shuffling of product in and out of China to get some re-finishing work done is going to disappear.  It will not go to Vietnam; it will come back to Canada.  And if there is a duty on it to get into the US market, then the finishing and packaging will go to Vermont or the USA.  That much is inevitable.

Jan, that is why I like to talk with you so much, this is real life example.

This is really strange that it is still economical to transport this heavy lumber components from Canada to China for such finishing and I assume back to Canada / US to sell to North American consumers. I roughly know this business and I think incentives could not be low costs of labour alone, they do not dominate cost structure. Maybe there was significant Chinese client base and in this case it seemed natural. Or it is much easier to find skilled workforce in China (in this business, low skilled blue collar jobs, there are problems with the chemicals in this coatings, they are cancerogenic, work in noise, not funny), much less employee safety and environmental regulation. China is trying to get rid of such low value added job. They will outsource such business to Cambodia, Indonesia, Burma, there is also lumber.

Cost structure could be 70 USD ( including transport), worth components come to China (or they already changed to Vietnam ?) and after finishing 100 USD comes back to Canada/US. Value added is 30 USD and significant negative externalities.

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/23/2019 at 4:04 PM, Jan van Eck said:

"Yes funny that especially given that China is a long way behind Japan on that front and the USA is only a decade behind China and China has a culture where it has not been unusual for 3 to 4 generations to live in the same household which cannot be said of the USA."

Take a good look at the above quote, folks, this is what the last gasp of propaganda bullshit from a bot handler looks like,  These guys cannot give up in their effort to shape Western public opinion, so they just keep pouring it on.  But it is just Chinese propaganda, and cannot derail what Trump has set in motion.  

I am also Western by some standards as native of Poland and never been to China. Today at Christmas Supper (after Christmas presents were delivered by Santa Claus and spotted underneath the Christmas Tree. And mandatory reading of this passage from Gospel of Luke about birth of Jesus, I already know it by heart) I had an interesting conversation with young and bright sinologist. It was about how we Europeans are conquered culturally by Chinese State. At majority of major European universities Confucius Institutes are created. At first they are benevolent in nature. Lots of funding for tertiary education and scholar work about Chinese culture and language. They love to teach you Mandarin. But there is also more sinister aspect of this, as most of faculty do not dare to speak anything negative  about Chinese Communist Party , and are self censoring themselves when speaking about Chinese history since 1949. This could be perceived as being against virtues of free speech especially cultivated in academic circles. Yound people are given full scholarships for studies, with a year or two in China itself, no strings attached. For equivalent of more or less 50,000-70,000 USD they get person that can work in its native country as liason with China, Chinese business. It will be much more important in the future when China will dominate this planet. They are already preparing cadres for this task.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Marcin
typo

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 12/23/2019 at 3:02 PM, Jan van Eck said:

This is the USA, home to nimble entrepreneurs; new uses for those products will be found, or the land and sea will shift to other production of other grains.  Don't kid yourself; in the USA, nothing is static.  The place is far too dynamic for that.

Yes this is the difference between Western economies and China

The same will be said of the UK and the EU

 

 

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/23/2019 at 8:51 PM, Papillon said:

Also I do not quite understand why the title is even news. China removes foreigh computer equipment but, before hand, the USA are doing all they can to discredit Huawei, to a point they are trying to force this opinion on other nations? But the USA doesn't care about China?

It is the news as the first such move by Chinese state. There were some inroads made in 2013-2017, but decision came only now.

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:40 PM, Tomasz said:

In general, the time of US hegemony is slowly becoming a thing of the past.

The world is becoming multipolar again and I personally enjoy it.

Your whole comment is spot on, but I personally do not enjoy this change.

World is multipolar or already bi-polar because China is still weak.

Unfortunately (also for Russia) long-term world would be unipolar again , Big Brother being China.

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:52 PM, remake it said:

The machine and might of America was born out of WWII where your words most certainly ring true until the attack on Pearl Harbor and it is interesting to observe that once hegemony is attained it can be sustained by feeding off others but not in feeding others.

You are Chinese I assume. Perspective of turning the tables, and future mandatory purchases of Chinese products by ALL countries is something I loathe the same as sales of opium to China over a barrel of British guns.

[remake it + 288]

On 12/24/2019 at 6:02 AM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

If your stance is to focus on improving the quality of life for the average citizen then I agree it matters not what China does. Atleast not in the near to medium term. 

That does not square with a major reason that the average daily spend by Westerners on consumables is reduced due to the manufacturing base-costs being predicated on what China has achieved and that those savings factor significantly into one's quality of life.

[remake it + 288]

6 minutes ago, Marcin said:

You are Chinese I assume. Perspective of turning the tables, and future mandatory purchases of Chinese products by ALL countries is something I loathe the same as sales of opium to China over a barrel of British guns.

Analysts should never assume unless they don't care about making mistakes so your idea of a blog here is excellent.

[Marcin + 519]

23 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Yes this is the difference between Western economies and China

The same will be said of the UK and the EU

This one I cannot answer with numbers, not that precisely. I think Chinese have something about being good, nimble enterpreneurs like Americans and both sexes. Chinese women are much more business oriented and active than Western women.

And Chinese put great emphasis on education, this is something spectacular and I do not know the reasons, maybe it derives from exams of Imperial Bureaucracy. But it is fact. They churn out 9 million graduates a year.

[Marcin + 519]

On 12/23/2019 at 4:02 PM, Jan van Eck said:

 As those Chinese plants lose that work, you will have loss of employment in that segment of society, which will be a destabilizing factor internally, and is the big reason you see these Bots  (such as "remake it") showing up on Western internet forums, and even their primary human handlers (such as marcin) who had this carefully constructed cover story of being an economist in Poland.  But no economist in Poland is going to be endorsing the prattle of some robot in China so consistently, that is out of the question, so Marcin has blown his cover.  One more human handler of Chinese propaganda, paid for by their military. 

Jan, be fair, I am not endorsing anybody, just ideas, opinions if they sound right to me. I released this "cover" because you once asked where do I come from and I do not think it is important but also not a secret, the same about my background. Any person has this or that background, but it is irrelevant in broader discussion. Your world works better, in its black-white structure when people act in the way you project them to act by your generalizations. I like to discuss with you. For me China is something that emerged in pure economic terms around 2008-2010, so I read a book or two about this country.

It could be also Cracovia from "Terminal" with Tom Hanks or Narnia, or Middle Earth, or Ankh Morpork.

[Boat + 1,323]

On 12/23/2019 at 1:10 AM, Dan Warnick said:

Ranked: Top 10 Countries by Consumer Expenditure

Since the internet came available information that population equals strength has been popular. While in fact large populations of unskilled workers are drags on any nation where robotics, AI, efficiency etc are the future.

Kinda related is my argument that tech has made most conventional warfarin obsolete and why throw billions at tanks, aircraft carriers etc when hypersonic missiles fired from across the world are unstoppable at least for now. 
 

Politicions preach fear to keep those gov contracts coming. World economies waste so much money on stupidity and “a false economy” funded by debt”. 
 

Smaller populations are not a weakness if efficiency, tech and education prevail. That’s why a little tiny country like Sweden can be a financial powerhouse. 

[Marcin + 519]

12 minutes ago, Boat said:

Since the internet came available information that population equals strength has been popular. While in fact large populations of unskilled workers are drags on any nation where robotics, AI, efficiency etc are the future.

Kinda related is my argument that tech has made most conventional warfarin obsolete and why throw billions at tanks, aircraft carriers etc when hypersonic missiles fired from across the world are unstoppable at least for now. 
 

Politicions preach fear to keep those gov contracts coming. World economies waste so much money on stupidity and “a false economy” funded by debt”. 
 

Smaller populations are not a weakness if efficiency, tech and education prevail. That’s why a little tiny country like Sweden can be a financial powerhouse. 

This is why we have this per capita measures (GDP nominal and PPP, being the most popular).

Conventional warfare is important: 1. Non-nuclear countries somehow have to sort things out among themselves 2. Strong countries need conventional warfare as a show of force and sometimes also to reprimand non-obedient countries in their sphere of influence.

You are right among Great Powers and Superpowers they are useless.

 

Edited December 25, 2019 by Marcin
typo

[remake it + 288]

1 hour ago, Marcin said:

It could be also Cracovia from "Terminal" with Tom Hanks or Narnia, or Middle Earth, or Ankh Morpork.

Almost scooped the pool but in the context of posts here it's all about Ishmaelia.

Edited December 25, 2019 by remake it
Marcin missed something when initially posting this

[remake it + 288]

4 hours ago, Marcin said:

Your world works better, in its black-white structure when people act in the way you project them to act by your generalizations.

Sounds more like a DJ engineering a beat we should all dance to while forgetting so many here are tone deaf.

Edited December 25, 2019 by remake it
removed the Ecko chamber effect

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 12/23/2019 at 3:57 PM, Dan Warnick said:

On 12/23/2019 at 3:34 PM, remake it said:

People were saying that 20 years ago and lo and behold those ghost cities of the past are largely occupied nowadays having contributed to China's massive transformation from a rural to a predominantly urban economy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqQ3OKm2nJ8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie6zd3Rwu4c

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/dont-get-haunted-by-ghost-cities/

No reply at all?  You made a claim, I showed evidence as to how you were wrong.  

[Marcin + 519]

56 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

No reply at all?  You made a claim, I showed evidence as to how you were wrong.  

Dan, Put more effort than just linking a few random videos, like :

I refer to ghost city abc located in xyz built in the year ....

something tangible

I do not mean that I am defending China or sth there should be some ghost cities , this is intuitive, but the were various reports I watched, and they were bogus

China recently used 30 billion tons of cement there should be white elephants.

I just say you join discussion try to use arguments of some quality, no offence, but what is posted at oilprice about China is at the level of Reuters, CNN, The economist , they are rags as far as East Asia topics are concerned.

[remake it + 288]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

No reply at all?  You made a claim, I showed evidence as to how you were wrong.  

Mr Warnick when you see the so called ghost cities going up and return some years later to see them come to life and then ten years later to have almost forgotten it was once this so called ghost city then as @Marcin points out it would be more useful to use a metric of substance (although he seems against opium but not the tall poppy syndrome).

[Boat + 1,323]

It would be great to go to a China government web site and look for “metrics of substance”. But alas they even ban pictures of large yellow ducks.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 12/24/2019 at 3:56 AM, remake it said:

You analysis is so inept it quite beggars belief.

Yet is accurate and true...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 12/23/2019 at 10:02 AM, Jan van Eck said:

Not really.  What you are overlooking is that it is not a "war" at all.  The USA is simply going to disengage with China and the two can go heir own way, and I can flat-out guarantee you that the people in the USA are not even going to think further of or about China.  The attitude already is:  "So, who cares?"  And the answer to that is: basically, nobody. 

The whole "go to China and get your stuff made cheap" is an idea that has come and gone.  The big shift comes with Donald Trump, and while he pontificates (a lot!) about "trade war," in fact it is not a trade war at all, although the Chinese are trying to make it into one.  It is a de-coupling, with the Americans (and Canadians) simply sourcing in other places.  Or doing their sourcing "at home," which is what is happening already in the USA. 

...

Why are the Chinese so upset by this de-coupling?  Because so much of their commercial structure is premised on manufacture for the Western markets. 

...

So, once again, the US simply disengaging from China will lead to the collapse of China.  And that is why the Bots are so fierce.  Cheers.

 

On 12/23/2019 at 10:53 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

My endless rants have apparently made inroads : )

US Must "Pursue Targeted Decoupling" From China's Economy, Says Former US Ambassador

Despite the latest Sino-American phase one deal to ease tensions over trade, one former top US official is now calling for a decoupling between both economies, reported the South China Morning Post (SCMP).  ...

 

...  "The US should use coordinated action with allies to confront China's trade malpractices … should pursue targeted decoupling of the US and Chinese economies, mainly in order to protect its defense capabilities rather than seeking a comprehensive rupture."

...

 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

Great cartoon, Tom!

[Lotech123 + 4]

In my own unlearned way, I have read and tried to absorb the arguments presented over these pages, but to me, an ‘ordinary joe’ if a manufacturer, from wherever, can produce an good egg whisk, car or computer at a price I am prepared to pay, then they get my money. 

It is proposed in a book called ‘1421’ by Commander Gavin Menzies, ISBN: 9780553815221, that this was the year (1421) that China discovered the known world by the deployment of 3 mega fleets of sailing ships.

The bibliography supporting his assertions is/are very comprehensive and the content of the book might shatter a few myths, leading perhaps to a consideration of China as a nation who paddled in the murky waters of geopolitics long before most modern nations had even reached the amoeba stage.

Edited December 25, 2019 by Lotech123
Poor grammatical style and careless punctuation

[remake it + 288]

40 minutes ago, Lotech123 said:

In my own unlearned way , I have read and tried to absorb and understand the arguments presented over these pages, but to me, an ‘ordinary joe’ if a manufacturer, from wherever, can produce an good egg whisk, car or computer at a price I am prepared to pay, then they get my money.

You have not missed anything except the point that the whole issue is "nuanced" due to an overarching Presidential ego trying to compete against Xi's long game which he started with a better hand and knows when and when not to play his trump cards.