Price support up thru month end Contract Settlement. Pulls back in January after China trade signed

[Jabbar + 465]

Continue trend as usual.  Don't expect anything new.

My calculation OPEC+ cuts are an illusion.  Oil supply out grows the increased demand 2020.

Many traders see big bounce if China trade deal is substantial. Personally, I believe a lot of China deal already built in to price.  Anticipated signing has put a floor under prices until trade deal officially signed. I'm playing steady flat market for now and maybe bump on trade deal signing and then prices fade as realization of excess 2020 supply sinks in. Lower prices by end of January. Even lower later on on year.  

Europe (aka Germany) should be watched .  European economy could drive some oil demand.  But Germany in difficult spot.  Germany has to please two masters.  China vs U.S. .  Can't please both.  Germany on outs with Trump after buying Russian natural gas as U.S. spends 10's of Billions a year providing their defense and security.  A tariff on German cars and car parts would be devastating to Germany. Merkel needs to decide if she wants to diss U.S. again .   .   .     or does she chose China over U.S.  .   .   .    Similar to her choice of Russia natural gas over U.S. 

Recent price increase provides crutch for over leveraged shale producers.  Could delay needed consolidation. 

All my opinion only 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Jabbar