Iraqi uprising against US military presence is increasing. Are geopolitical interests justification good enough for waging war against Iraqi nation on Iraqi soil ?

[Marcin + 519]

FACT1: In March this year Iraqi parliament, democratically elected parliament, voted for US military to leave Iraqi territory.

FACT2: Various Iraqi political factions are actively fighting with US military presence, also by violent means.

FACT 3: At present main effort of US military on Iraqi soil is to fight with armed militias represented by these faction, US is simply fighting with Iraqi uprising (not "ISIS" or Iranian militias).

FACT 4: Iran has strong influence in Iraq, but view that US should not occupy Iraq any longer is common in Iraq, across party lines.

QUESTION1: Should US indefinitely occupy Iraq, against will of Iraqi nation ?

OPINION1: Strategically US shold occupy Iraq indefinitely to achieve control over 10% of global hydrocarbons. Leaving Iraq could have domino effect, as other Persian Gulf countries in the future could also want US military to leave. This would be bad example. US would loose control over 50% of global hydrocarbon reserves. US needs this reserves when shale revolution is over, and to prevent China to use them if hegemony war gets bitter.

QUESTION2: How US could explain to global public opinion that it has moral high ground ?

OPINION2: Global public opinion is of secondary importance in 10 years perspective, till US has military and economic hegemony hard power prevails. Global public opinion is already dissilusioned with US goals and motives. Only US public opinion is important. Single and coherent narrative  presented in all major US media together with exceptionalism and sense of mission to save the world explains all collateral damage.

OPINION3: Major collateral damage is and will be US democracy, in my opinion US becomes more similar to Soviet Union and China each and every year.

[remake it + 288]

Opinion: You might need to use a heading with Biden Pelosi or Burisma to get a response,

Question: Didn't you think of that?

Fact: No because you are smarter than that!

[Jabbar + 465]

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

FACT1: In March this year 

FOLLOW THE MONEY

(1) Burisma sent money to shell Company in Latvia (2) the money was then sent to Cyprus (3) then transfered to Hunter Biden  and partners Accounts 

Real Clear Politics Video

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/12/28/oan_news_report_court_filing_shows_hunter_biden_earned_156_million_from_ukraine_corruption.html

Edited December 31, 2019 by Jabbar

[Marcin + 519]

@Jabbarit was about Iraqi case study proving that hegemony/state power is all about  securing access to resources. Most important on our planet being hydrocarbons. It interesting for me like different countries in written history explained the need to secure this resources. Present explanation of US is to protect democracy, fight ISIS, and keep Iran in check. 

In the past it was to bring Christianity so that foreign nations are not doomed for eternity in hell.

Another one was to bring civilization and modernity to backward people.

Or because our nation needs space and is exceptional among others like in American manifest destiny or German liebensraum for ubermensch Aryan people.

Or because we need to police the world for stability.

Or because we are chosen nation of Israel and Jahwe tells us to do so.

[Marcin + 519]

Or because we need to bring happiness of Communism to the world by Soviet Union.

I would like to find nation which would just say „Because we can and need to it for benefit of our nation , and all others f**k off”

[SERWIN + 749]

It won't be long and they will be back in the place they were 20 years ago. The ME does not understand running themselves for themselves, it is almost like fate or something that some dictator will take over and rule them with a mighty fist like Hussein did. I predicted that decades ago, all our efforts were going to be a waste. Let them all fight it out among themselves for a couple of decades. If they were half brained idiots they would unite and be a force to reckon with, but thankfully they are just regular idiots and will let their religion keep them apart forever. So sad to see human beings without enough intelligence, driven by more fear and superstition than anything else.

[remake it + 288]

4 hours ago, Marcin said:

I would like to find nation which would just say „Because we can and need to it for benefit of our nation , and all others f**k off”

Cheers China  海内存知己，天涯若比邻.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

MSM spin.  "Iraqi mourners" waving Iran-backed Hezbollah flags?

 

Iran is instigating this.

 

 

 

[remake it + 288]

Fake news

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 minute ago, remake it said:

Fake news

Agreed.  

[remake it + 288]

Reality and it's likely implications as if nobody saw this coming.

(please take note of President Bush's exact words in the first few minutes of the reality link and then contemplate what Iraqi's are thinking today) 

Edited December 31, 2019 by remake it
(parenthesis added)

[Marcin + 519]

Iran is instigating this. @Tom Kirkman it could be true.

You just found new justification for occupation of sovereign country: "They have friends we do not like".

Tom, the only problem is they are neighbours and ONLY SHIA ISLAM countries in Persian Gulf and in the WORLD.

(Azerbaijan does not count as they have secular character after Soviet rule, and Bahrain is just province of Saudi Arabia)

And Shia Islam is discriminated in  Sunni majority Gulf countries and both countries are persecuted by Americans.

It seems they are destined to be the closest countries in the world to each other, no matter what could be opinion of anybody.

(Saddam Husein rule was deviation as Iraqi Shia=80% of Iraq were just occupied by Sunni Muslims=20% of Iraqi population in their own country).

I really do not know, but I do not think US has capacity to wage religious war against Iraqi, and the situation is going fast in that direction.

Killing 25 Iraqi for 1 killed American just made situation much worse.

What will Trump or next US President do with this situation, when it will spiral out of control and it certainly will ?

Inflicting US casualties (probably both military and civilian) would be Iraqi/Iranian target.

They know that only casualties could change foreing policy of US under pressure of US public opinion.

There would be 3 scenarios, none of them good for US:

- escalation of US actions towards Iraqi nation, more Iraqi casualties. 5000 US soldiers and even 20,000 mercenaries from Blackwater or what is current name of this dogs of war company could not fight with 40 million nation. Every Iraqi would be a soldier in jihad against US. So more troops on the ground in this scenario, Casualties mounting on both sides. Coup ? Iraqi Armed Foces would eventually turn against US. No solution. And Trump loses election, 100% sure. And US leaves Iraq which is called another Vietnam.

- the same scenario as before but US leaves Iraq before casualties rise too high. Trump wins re-election. But I think military industrial complex is rich enough to buy 19 Senators they need to impeach Trump in this scenario.

- needs fast action, In January 2020 US broadcasts that it would leave Iraq, but it would take 2 years. After re-election decision is changed. This postpones inevitable scenario number 1 or 2 but is the best decision if violence escalates.

 

 

[Marcin + 519]

8 hours ago, SERWIN said:

It won't be long and they will be back in the place they were 20 years ago. The ME does not understand running themselves for themselves, it is almost like fate or something that some dictator will take over and rule them with a mighty fist like Hussein did. I predicted that decades ago, all our efforts were going to be a waste. Let them all fight it out among themselves for a couple of decades. If they were half brained idiots they would unite and be a force to reckon with, but thankfully they are just regular idiots and will let their religion keep them apart forever. So sad to see human beings without enough intelligence, driven by more fear and superstition than anything else.

We let the barbarians rule barbarians in a barbarian way, if they do not have hydrocarbons.

Hydrocarbons are what makes majority of geopolitical (war or peace) decisions since WW1.

So what you said is true unless relates to countries we really care about:

1. Canada - controlled,

2. Venezuela - not controlled but actively convinced that US control is the right decision, through sanctions&soft coup,

3. Iran - not controlled but actively convinced that US control is the right decision, through sanctions,

4. Iraq - controlled since 2003 invasion, occupied,

5. Kuwait - controlled,

6. Qatar - controlled,

7. Saudi Arabia - controlled,

8. United Arab Emirates - controlled,

9. Libya - controlled since 2011 invasion, occupied,

10. Nigeria - controlled,

So only Iran and Venezuela needs to be sorted out to achieve peace in the world

(another way to say to achieve US control over their hydrocarbons)

Countries with significant hydrocarbon resources out of reach of US:

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan - they are controlled by China/Russia duo.

 

And there is also : US, China, Russia - but they are sovereign.

So geopolitical focus is on: Iraq&Iran and Venezuela as all other countries are secured by one of the superpowers.

Hydrocarbons of these 3 countries are worth 80,000,000,000,000 US dollars (80 trillion at 100 USD/bbl) : 20 years of global oil consumption.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 12/31/2019 at 9:06 AM, Marcin said:

FACT1: In March this year Iraqi parliament, democratically elected parliament, voted for US military to leave Iraqi territory.

FACT2: Various Iraqi political factions are actively fighting with US military presence, also by violent means.

FACT 3: At present main effort of US military on Iraqi soil is to fight with armed militias represented by these faction, US is simply fighting with Iraqi uprising (not "ISIS" or Iranian militias).

FACT 4: Iran has strong influence in Iraq, but view that US should not occupy Iraq any longer is common in Iraq, across party lines.

QUESTION1: Should US indefinitely occupy Iraq, against will of Iraqi nation ?

OPINION1: Strategically US shold occupy Iraq indefinitely to achieve control over 10% of global hydrocarbons. Leaving Iraq could have domino effect, as other Persian Gulf countries in the future could also want US military to leave. This would be bad example. US would loose control over 50% of global hydrocarbon reserves. US needs this reserves when shale revolution is over, and to prevent China to use them if hegemony war gets bitter.

QUESTION2: How US could explain to global public opinion that it has moral high ground ?

OPINION2: Global public opinion is of secondary importance in 10 years perspective, till US has military and economic hegemony hard power prevails. Global public opinion is already dissilusioned with US goals and motives. Only US public opinion is important. Single and coherent narrative  presented in all major US media together with exceptionalism and sense of mission to save the world explains all collateral damage.

OPINION3: Major collateral damage is and will be US democracy, in my opinion US becomes more similar to Soviet Union and China each and every year.

In my humble opinion, the US should leave southern Iraq to it’s own devices and move their entire mission, military and diplomatic to Kurdistan. The Kurds generally like Americans and appreciate what they can do to assist the Kurds militarily and economically. This is my opinion after roughly two years spent based in either Erbil or Taq Taq.

The Southern Iraqis have shown neither the will or the effort to rebuild after Saddam, and as usual blame the situation on the US. Leave it to them. If they want to jump into bed with the Iranians, Russians or Chinese, let them and we’ll all sit back and watch how that turns out.

[remake it + 288]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In my humble opinion, the US should leave southern Iraq to it’s own devices and move their entire mission, military and diplomatic to Kurdistan. The Kurds generally like Americans and appreciate what they can do to assist the Kurds militarily and economically. This is my opinion after roughly two years spent based in either Erbil or Taq Taq.

The Southern Iraqis have shown neither the will or the effort to rebuild after Saddam, and as usual blame the situation on the US. Leave it to them. If they want to jump into bed with the Iranians, Russians or Chinese, let them and we’ll all sit back and watch how that turns out.

The USA recently abandoned the Kurds to the mercy of the Turks so it is dubious that the Kurds would think much of your idea while the USA and its coalition forces were responsible under international law for making Iraq safe after "Mission Accomplished" yet you want to blame the Iraqis for that utter clusterfarq.

[Marcin + 519]

The problem is embassy protesters are highly organized. Normally weather in Baghdad would be US ally as it gets down to 5-8 C at night. But protesters have tents portable bathrooms, it will be succesful siege. They already just put on fire reception area. They will have masks so tear gas No problem. They are like Hong Kong protesters.

They have time on their side, Trump loses 1% in the polls every 2 days of such protest.

Edited January 1, 2020 by Marcin
Typo

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

How did the US abandon the ‘Kurds’, and which Kurds are you talking about? You are making the same mistake as the media! There are many different groups within the Kurdish region. You group them all together similar to saying all Latinos are Mexican.

Are you attempting to claim that by Trump pulling 1000 American troops (not all combat arms) out from between to fanatic groups of combatants, that he abandoned the Kurds? If he had left them in place they could not significantly change the outcome and quite possibly would have been slaughtered. Is that what you think he should have done?

Now keep in mind that the mission to get al-Baghdadi launched from Kurdistan AFTER Trump pulled the troops out. Apparently the Iraqi Kurds did not feel abandoned.

You should really do some homework before letting your alligator mouth overload your butterfly ass.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

 

“They have time on their side, Trump loses 1% in the polls every 2 days of such protest.”

Can you furnish some supporting evidence for this statement? Or is it once again, simply your opinion?

[remake it + 288]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

How did the US abandon the ‘Kurds’, and which Kurds are you talking about? You are making the same mistake as the media! There are many different groups within the Kurdish region. You group them all together similar to saying all Latinos are Mexican. ...................................

You should really do some homework before letting your alligator mouth overload your butterfly ass.

Kurds have no "nation" and self-identify through a diaspora so your points are invalid and wrt the USA's efforts there were many global headlines denouncing the foolish position Trump took regarding an alliance they had with the Kurds in Syria.

Edited January 1, 2020 by remake it
added numerous links to help Mr Buckman "get it"

[Marcin + 519]

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

 

“They have time on their side, Trump loses 1% in the polls every 2 days of such protest.”

Can you furnish some supporting evidence for this statement? Or is it once again, simply your opinion?

I also said this in this comment:

"The problem is embassy protesters are highly organized. Normally weather in Baghdad would be US ally as it gets down to 5-8 C at night. But protesters have tents portable bathrooms, it will be succesful siege. They already just put on fire reception area. They will have masks so tear gas No problem. They are like Hong Kong protesters."

They got orders to regroup and withdraw and they as all good soldiers listened to them, these are not typical civilians. If the situation had escalated Trump would have lost his anti-war voters, important part of his voting base.

But protesters retreated as per orders.

I think protesters would now put pressure on Iraqi parliament to vote US Army out to have moral high ground over Americans.

 

 

 

[remake it + 288]

5 minutes ago, Marcin said:

I think protesters would now put pressure on Iraqi parliament to vote US Army out to have moral high ground over Americans.

Trump has gravely erred in that irrespective of Iran's influence on the protest movement the actual protesters are Iraqis who feel the US has done them no favors so @Marcin's sentiment will resonate with the Iraq nation.

[Boat + 1,323]

When GW gave Iraq to a Shiite government which has a predominantly Sunni population with no plan for the Kurds, what did you expect. Peace? 
So here we are watching a Shiite gov spending oil money on security from its own population. You have a kind reassuring presence in president Trump who gets to decide what happens. The Kurds won’t like any of it.

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Trump just reaps the storm from the wind he sowed by violating the multilateral treaty with Iran and EU. 

[Marcin + 519]

65% of iraqi are shia muslims

[James Gautreau + 86]

What we are heading to is a large supply shock in crude oil. Iran has promised if Iran oil can't flow into world markets than no OPEC oil will flow into world markets. Iran and their proxies will take out Iraq and Saudi Arabia crude. American LTO will peak early this year and by summer there will be no denying it. Prices will skyrocket and save the oil industry until the next boom/bust cycle starts again with a collapse in price.