Iraqi uprising against US military presence is increasing. Are geopolitical interests justification good enough for waging war against Iraqi nation on Iraqi soil ?

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

43 minutes ago, James Gautreau said:

Iran has promised if Iran oil can't flow into world markets than no OPEC oil will flow into world markets. Iran and their proxies will take out Iraq and Saudi Arabia crude

James can you explain just how Iran is going to achieve this?

The world simply would not stand for this and it would inevitably end in outright war not just between ME countries but with USA, Europe etc also heavily involved.

I guess you still get your skyrocketing oil price, just by different means.

[James Gautreau + 86]

They attacked Saudi Oil with drones and the intent was to take a certain amount of crude off the market for an extended period of time. The Saudis have about 200 million barrels in storage in their system. America has about 450 million barrels. Now whatever was knocked off line was replaced by Iraqi barrels, stored barrels, and it turned out to be a blip. All Saudi production was back online in a month. Trump did not attack. Recently Iran lobbed rockets into an American camp killing an American contractor. This time Trump attacked, killing 25, and stirring up Iraq protests at the American embassy. The math is not hard. Attack oil assets, nothing. Kill an American, swift and severe retaliation. I think a lot of this is his faith in American LTO, which I think is peaking as we speak. Iran has many large conventional ICBM's that they could lob into the Saudi oil facilities and take them off line for 6 months, virtually assuring that sanctions will be lifted and Iran crude sold on world markets again. Prices would compel Trump to mediate. This is terrible strategy for Trump. He has backed himself into a corner. Is America going to go to war with Iran? Of course not. This is a Trump truism. He cannot start a Middle East war. I believe Iran will take out Iraq and Saudi facilities. It's a no lose situation for Iran. 

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/irans-missiles-keep-getting-better-and-better-more-advanced-and-deadly-35267

[James Gautreau + 86]

If you take 10 mbpd off line for 6 months that is 1.8 billion barrels of oil. That would drain the entire system. 

https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/iran-military-power/

Edited January 2, 2020 by James Gautreau

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

20 minutes ago, James Gautreau said:

They attacked Saudi Oil with drones and the intent was to take a certain amount of crude off the market for an extended period of time. The Saudis have about 200 million barrels in storage in their system. America has about 450 million barrels. Now whatever was knocked off line was replaced by Iraqi barrels, stored barrels, and it turned out to be a blip. All Saudi production was back online in a month. Trump did not attack. Recently Iran lobbed rockets into an American camp killing an American contractor. This time Trump attacked, killing 25, and stirring up Iraq protests at the American embassy. The math is not hard. Attack oil assets, nothing. Kill an American, swift and severe retaliation. I think a lot of this is his faith in American LTO, which I think is peaking as we speak. Iran has many large conventional ICBM's that they could lob into the Saudi oil facilities and take them off line for 6 months, virtually assuring that sanctions will be lifted and Iran crude sold on world markets again. Prices would compel Trump to mediate. This is terrible strategy for Trump. He has backed himself into a corner. Is America going to go to war with Iran? Of course not. This is a Trump truism. He cannot start a Middle East war. I believe Iran will take out Iraq and Saudi facilities. It's a no lose situation for Iran. 

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/irans-missiles-keep-getting-better-and-better-more-advanced-and-deadly-35267

I think there are major question marks on who launched what at Saudi. personally I think the whole thing was a sham by Saudi with a view to raising the price of oil temporarily with the Aramco IPO in mind. When Trump said they would need to investigate whether or not Iran was involved everyone went quiet after that which IMO was very telling.

There is no way that Iran can just "take out" Saudi and Iraq with no consequences, it just wont happen.

If, as you suggest, ICBM's are launched then trust me that is an act of war and there is no way USA just sits back and watches the show. Saudi buys too much military equipment off USA + Europe for them to sit back and let it happen. This isn't just about oil its also about who has the political upper hand in the most volatile area of the world. I also think both Russia and China would not condone any such attack as it doesn't serve their interests.

" I believe Iran will take out Iraq and Saudi facilities. It's a no lose situation for Iran."

It would be one of the most reckless acts by Iran ever and yes I believe they have everything to lose.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Rob Plant

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

17 minutes ago, James Gautreau said:

If you take 10 mbpd off line for 6 months that is 1.8 billion barrels of oil. That would drain the entire system. 

Agreed but its not happening

[James Gautreau + 86]

I agree the drone attacks could have been a false flag attack done by Saudi Arabia. The extreme accuracy of the attacks, the speed at which they came back online, definitely fishy stuff. If you recall there were analysts predicting $100 oil and months to recover, neither of which happened. There are many geopolitical forces at play here that want Trump gone and a return to a more normal world. All of NATO, China, Russia want a return to the JCPOA. Trump is being unreasonable to many. Like his stand against China. China is not going to change their business model for 100 Trumps. They'll wait him out. Out of unreasonable comes reckless, because it's all that's left. Think Treaty of Versailles.

[James Gautreau + 86]

This is not my theory. This has been in the news.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-attacks-iran-special-rep/special-reporttime-to-take-out-our-swords-inside-irans-plot-to-attack-saudi-arabia-idUSKBN1XZ16H

Edited January 2, 2020 by James Gautreau

[James Gautreau + 86]

And here. Since abandoning diplomacy, Trump has condemned himself to be a Twitter or Paper Tiger or for starting the third American Middle East War. There is no C.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/trump-put-himself-irans-mercy/604321/

Edited January 2, 2020 by James Gautreau

[John Foote + 1,135]

1 hour ago, James Gautreau said:

And here. Since abandoning diplomacy, Trump has condemned himself

Bad headline by the Atlantic, Trump has not abandoned diplomacy, that is impossible. Just different tactics and goals. And an deliberate unwillingness to use the historical professional staff. Which is a reason he was elected so to bash him for it is silly.

I do think Trump has the Middle East so very, very wrong, and like Obama before him, Trump has inherited Bush43's shit show destabilization of Iraq that has helped Sunnis fundamentalists, most famously ISIS, and had Russia not stepped in Assad probably would have collapsed. Obama had a short term honeymoon in the region until they figured out Obama viewed the area as a no-allie zone. Trump's rhetoric played well at first, greatly benefiting from the "not Obama, hate Obama" factor, and the fact he doesn't fuss about their norms and values is appreciated, but the chaos nature of the man's policies has marked him as a man not to trust. I think Trump got in right in not bombing Iran. But pretty sure MBS doesn't trust 45 anymore. MBS previously thought he had the green light to invade Qatar. Even Kushner has walked away and moved on to the Wall.

I don't believe Trump will go all in for a war. He might step the drones and bombing, which will hurt us long term, we are already almost everybody's enemy in the region, but it might help in the short term. 

 

[James Gautreau + 86]

And he also inherited a growing, strong economy from Obama. Take the good with the bad. He has indeed abandoned diplomacy.The way you know Trump is full of shit is he won't tell you what he wants, he won't tell you his healthcare plan except it's far less expensive and so much better than Obamacare, He won't tell you why it's perfect just that it is, and you know it and I know it. He won't say what was wrong with the old deal just that it's terrible, the worst deal ever made. He talks maximum pressure, but pressure cuts both ways and he's about to find that out. About 65 million people in America, maybe the same in Russia like this guy. Everybody else wants him gone. He doesn't stand a chance. The biggest weapon OPEC has is the price of oil. They will use it. Just like when we peaked in 1970 and soon after they embargoed us. Torched the 1970's. They're going to do it again, as soon as they're sure American LTO has peaked. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

19 minutes ago, James Gautreau said:

And he also inherited a growing, strong economy from Obama.

Nope.  Totally inaccurate.   From memory, while still in office Obama even joked that Trump would need some kind of magic wand to improve the U.S. economy.

The rest of the comment appears to be full blown TDS.

[James Gautreau + 86]

You can't just say it, you have to prove it. GDP was 2% Q4 2016, 2.25 % Q12017. The rest of the comments are just facts.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

[James Gautreau + 86]

Don't think the Iranians are hurting? Think again.

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/US-Sanctions-Have-Cost-Iran-200-Billion.html

[shadowkin + 584]

Interesting topic. I'll address some of your other questions in a different post but it appears we killed the head of Iran's Quds Force, Gen Qassim Soleimani, and the deputy of the Iraqi PMF forces, which are Iranian backed Shia militias, with an air strike on Friday. Obviously this was retaliation for the attack on the US embassy carried out by said militias with Iran's involvement.

To this I say, "F_ck Yeah". It's about time we made the appropriate response.

https://apnews.com/5597ff0f046a67805cc233d5933a53ed

I think the bigger concern is the Iraqi uprising against the Iraqi government for their failure to deliver basic services and corruption. This has led to widespread protests as you know.

I think your idea that the US could go the way of the Soviet Union or China will not happen. Soviet Union economically collapsed. The US isn't anywhere close to that and this analogy doesn't seem appropriate. Our economy is great. Lowest unemployment in 50 years.

Now if, in theory, we were to collapse this would lead to the collapse of China as well, which they fully understand.

The domino effect on Germany would be devastating as both China and the US are huge export markets for Germany. It's beside the point but we would bring everyone else down with us so no industrialized country should wish that, however much they hate us.

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by shadowkin

[remake it + 288]

1 hour ago, shadowkin said:

I'll address some of your other questions in a different post but it appears we killed the head of Iran's Quds Force, Gen Qassim Soleimani, and the deputy of the Iraqi PMF forces, which are Iranian backed Shia militias, with an air strike on Friday.

Please be accurate with your claims as there are many at this site who would not wish to be included in your Presidential "we" which may turn out to be the biggest mistake he has made while in office.

[Toranaga + 49]

Cher Monsieur Gautreau:    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/281936-obama-to-trump-what-magic-wand-do-you-have

Obama to Trump: 'What magic wand do you have?'

Evidemment, il en a! 
The United States has taken responsibility for the attack at the airport.   Mr. Gautreau, you simply do not understand the boldness and audacity of this man who is actually a very, very tough and tenacious individual. This attack was delivered at the perfect time after the Iranians had claimed they will break America's back etc.  Now realistically, the United States might be forced out of Iraq due to this attack. Trump may already have considered that and figured it is about time we left, anyway.  

[Anthony Flores + 1]

25 minutes ago, Anthony Flores said:

I am getting involves in drill pipe and directional drill motors rubber removal in a month or so and before I begin this project and purchasing expensive waterblasting equipment and pumps id like others input on how the first quarter of 2020 will be for drilling companies. Will there be more cuts or will these companies grow? This includes big companies and manufacturers like Schlumberger, Halliburton, Weatherford, ect......

 

14 hours ago, James Gautreau said:

What we are heading to is a large supply shock in crude oil. Iran has promised if Iran oil can't flow into world markets than no OPEC oil will flow into world markets. Iran and their proxies will take out Iraq and Saudi Arabia crude. American LTO will peak early this year and by summer there will be no denying it. Prices will skyrocket and save the oil industry until the next boom/bust cycle starts again with a collapse in price. 

I am getting involved in drill pipe cleaning and drill motor rubber removal. Will drilling continue as is? Or will it grow or slow down? Id like your input on this subject. Thanks

[James Gautreau + 86]

People are certainly going to differ on the merits of this assassination. The guy was like Maximus and Iran, and you make a martyr out of him. That alone is why bush and Trump didn't kill him. The plan he was working on is already complete. Seems to me Trump is saying game on and we don't want you there after it happens making good strategic decisions. This tells me Trump is scared of Iran. Remember he is the Commander in Chief, he doesn't listen to his generals, forms strategy by talking to the grunts. Yeah I would agree; you have to get rid of the other side's best military mind to have a snowball's chance in hell of winning with this guy calling the shots. 

[James Gautreau + 86]

8 hours ago, Anthony Flores said:

 

I am getting involved in drill pipe cleaning and drill motor rubber removal. Will drilling continue as is? Or will it grow or slow down? Id like your input on this subject. Thanks

I think it hold steady around 700 rigs. Production will begin to decline though.

[shadowkin + 584]

13 hours ago, remake it said:

Please be accurate with your claims as there are many at this site who would not wish to be included in your Presidential "we" which may turn out to be the biggest mistake he has made while in office.

I am. It's obvious I'm not referring to individuals. Hint: I'm referring to a country. Can you guess which one? I won't cater to delicate pedants such as yourself.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

On 1/2/2020 at 10:18 AM, James Gautreau said:

And here. Since abandoning diplomacy, Trump has condemned himself to be a Twitter or Paper Tiger or for starting the third American Middle East War. There is no C.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/trump-put-himself-irans-mercy/604321/

Do yourself a favor, never read or quote the atlantic.  They have been 100% wrong going on 3 decades now.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Iran's effective commander in chief is killed in Iraq. But everyone acts like we killed him in Tehran. The fact is, Iraq is nothing more than a puppet state of Iran already. When the Hezbollah attacked the embassy, they were unopposed by the Iraqi security forces supposedly guarding the compound. It is obvious Suleimani was orchestrating events from Baghdad and more was planned. So unlike Obama, Trump put on his big boy pants and said, "Do it". One less government sponsored terrorist. 

I'm not going to deny Iraq was a fustercluck of epic proportions ever since that idiot Bush put that even bigger idiot Brennan in charge in Iraq. That moron single-handedly created the disaster that followed with his unilateral order to disband, demoralize and disenfranchise the entire Iraqi military. They were immediately: Unemployed, no pensions, no future, no hope, and totally pissed off. Gee whatever could go wrong with a million pissed off trained killers running around? My nephew was stationed there at the time. Overnight it went from friendly to furious. Not one general was notified or consulted by Brennan before he gave his order. World class moron

[shadowkin + 584]

On 1/2/2020 at 10:18 AM, James Gautreau said:

Trump has condemned himself to be a Twitter or Paper Tiger or for starting the third American Middle East War.

No in between huh? Tell me what amount of military action would lead you to conclude he's no paper tiger. You've created this false choice where if he does little to nothing he's a paper tiger and if he does more like this recent killing he's a war monger.

 

4 hours ago, James Gautreau said:

People are certainly going to differ on the merits of this assassination. The guy was like Maximus and Iran, and you make a martyr out of him. That alone is why bush and Trump didn't kill him. The plan he was working on is already complete. Seems to me Trump is saying game on and we don't want you there after it happens making good strategic decisions. This tells me Trump is scared of Iran.

No he's saying this guy planned and is planning attacks on US diplomats and American personnel so we took him out.  Your opinion that this means he's scared of Iran is strange. I think Trump's got you a little discombobulated.

[remake it + 288]

27 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Iran's effective commander in chief is killed in Iraq. But everyone acts like we killed him in Tehran. The fact is, Iraq is nothing more than a puppet state of Iran already. When the Hezbollah attacked the embassy, they were unopposed by the Iraqi security forces supposedly guarding the compound. It is obvious Suleimani was orchestrating events from Baghdad and more was planned. So unlike Obama, Trump put on his big boy pants and said, "Do it". One less government sponsored terrorist. 

I'm not going to deny Iraq was a fustercluck of epic proportions ever since that idiot Bush put that even bigger idiot Brennan in charge in Iraq. That moron single-handedly created the disaster that followed with his unilateral order to disband, demoralize and disenfranchise the entire Iraqi military. They were immediately: Unemployed, no pensions, no future, no hope, and totally pissed off. Gee whatever could go wrong with a million pissed off trained killers running around? My nephew was stationed there at the time. Overnight it went from friendly to furious. Not one general was notified or consulted by Brennan before he gave his order. World class moron

It appears that you and President Trump are equally inept in assessing the Iraqi situation and the impact of the drone strike as while Trump might win a game of checkers against a small child he has no capacity to think the necessary number of moves ahead to even be competitive in a game of chess.

[remake it + 288]

7 minutes ago, shadowkin said:

No he's saying this guy planned and is planning attacks on US diplomats and American personnel so we took him out.  Your opinion that this means he's scared of Iran is strange. I think Trump's got you a little discombobulated.

Mindnumbingly misguided ideas of the dumbed-down America that Trump has created and if you think you have a point just remember that in almost 20 years the USA could not defeat a non-aligned goat herding nation called Afghanistan and now contemplates aggression against a top 10 non-nuclear military power.