Iraqi uprising against US military presence is increasing. Are geopolitical interests justification good enough for waging war against Iraqi nation on Iraqi soil ?

[remake it + 288]

On 1/5/2020 at 12:17 PM, Marcin said:

If you really want to trace him it is easy, share the cost of the fee with Ward, he will have his bot mission accomplished.

It is a good idea, but do you believe he has learned to play chess against a computer that makes Deep Blue appear  only good enough for noughts and crosses, and Komodo fine for checkers?

Edited January 6, 2020 by remake it

[Marcin + 519]

6 minutes ago, remake it said:

It is a good idea, but do you believe he has learned to play chess against a computer that makes Deep Blue look noughts and crosses and Komodo like checkers?

Computing power of gear you use has nothing to do with the difficulty to trace you, if it would be too difficult it would be proof you are working for Mainland Chinese government, computer specialist will tell you this as part of service. I know Chinese are among the best IT specialists (I do not like hackers designation) because they are so devouted to serve their country.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Marcin
typo

[remake it + 288]

1 minute ago, Marcin said:

Computing power of gear you use has nothing to do with the difficulty to trace you, if it would be too difficult it would be proof you are working for Mainland Chinese government, computer specialist will tell you this as part of service. I know Chinese are amoung the best IT specialists (I do not like hackers designation) because they are so devouted to serve their country.

It is about embedding layers of deception that return results pointing to the obvious, as if you saw yourself simultaneously in two mirrors but did not concern yourself with a reflection of your images that was infinite.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

7 hours ago, Marcin said:

If you really want to trace him it is easy

As a moderator, I can see the IP address of everyone viewing the forum; non-moderators are not shown the IP adresses.  This is a normal function of any forum, and can be useful for site admins and moderators to see if there are sock puppets messing up the forum. 

https://community.oilprice.com/online/

Non-moderators are not shown the IP addresses of the people currently viewing the forum.  But my moderator view shows the IP address of everyone currently viewing the forum.

Sock puppets are the same person using multiple accounts and using their different accounts to upvote each other and engage in circular echo chambers to shout down / downvote opposing views.  Unlike bots, I generally do not allow multiple sock puppet accounts, as it artificially distorts the forum conversations by one person hijacking threads by using multiple accounts and making it seem there is more support by others than there actually is.

For info, so far I have not seen any specific sock puppet activity here - I have not noticed multiple accounts using the same IP address.  Granted, proxys can be used, but that generally results in different / random IP adresses every time someone logs in and out of the proxy. 

(Years ago I used to install TOR on computers to assist in bypassing government censorship in Asia.  TOR slows down internet speed considerably, but can be successful in bypassing the restrictions certain governments put on certain websites to block people from accessing the banned sites.)

Anyway, so far, I have noticed minimal proxy activities by members here, although I haven't done much more than a cursory check.  Some of my suspicions were correct about proxy activity by certain individuals.  Nothing to be concerned with though.

Be aware as a moderator, most of my behind the scenes duties are "housekeeping" such as immediately flagging and banning spammers and scammers, hiding duplicate posts, occasionally warning members to calm down - either in a gentle nudge in public or a gentle nudge via private message) and paying attention to newly registered members that show weird activity that is not considered spam but is just off kilter.  If noob activity becomes spam or is too off topic or becomes advertising, the noob is warned, and subsequent bad behavior after a warning gets the noob banned.

In the past I have already geolocated the IP addresses of a few members.  Some locations were surprising, some were not.  Nothing to be concerned about. 

As a moderator, my overall thrust tends to be to make dissent freely available to everyone.  Unless you have lived in a country where dissent can be cause for being arrested (or worse) you may not truly appreciate how valuable the freedom to dissent can be.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

This entire thread has now devolved into a bunch of thin skinned, adolescent bickering.

It seems to me that many folks on here need to find a hobby and stop whining on this forum.

A viable replacement for Oilpro, this forum is not.

Just my opinion, but watch the comments from all those that get their knickers in a twist...

[Marcin + 519]

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

This entire thread has now devolved into a bunch of thin skinned, adolescent bickering.

It seems to me that many folks on here need to find a hobby and stop whining on this forum.

A viable replacement for Oilpro, this forum is not.

Just my opinion, but watch the comments from all those that get their knickers in a twist...

It is just our strange way of socializing , we found hobby here, well I took somecountermeasures to spent No more than 1 h a day here.

[Papillon + 485]

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

It seems to me that many folks on here need to find a hobby

Very true sir, unfortunately this bickering can occur here on occasion when an alternative opinion is presented, at which point accusations begin from presumably Americans in their teens. I do not appreciate such accusation but at the same time have come to find it rather amusing that differing opinion is clearly not appreciated here, as it may distract from mutual back patting which in turn interrupts any form of response. This rather makes the idea of an apparent 'forum' rather pointless.

I have also suggested these users start a hobby rather than argue with someone they believe to be a robot, or indeed now some form of handler, but like many views here, it falls on deaf ears. The ears have potentially been damaged from the constant echo they surround themselves with, and may unfortunately be incurable, but we can only hope. 

Good day sir.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Papillon

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Marcin said:

I took some countermeasures to spent No more than 1 h a day here.

LOL how's that working out for you? 

[Guest]

22 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Papillion and Marcin are the bot handlers. They are humans and are here to deflect attention AWAY from the obvious bot. 

How does that work when you and Papi have done nothing but argue about this bot thing??

Doesn't sound very 'deflective' from him to me, it's all you are both now talking about, and this bot talk had been around for months before Marcin and Papi came along. So what's the point, they are 'deflecting' from conversations that already happened months ago are they? For what? Everyone here has an opinion on everyone already. I know I do.

And for the whole time it was possible to block people!!! 

I need to up MY game??   From Mr ''argue with robot daily''   Anyway, doubtful. I'm English remember, my 'game' will be top notch always. Americans need to work on their game, that way they may 'make it great again'.

Sort it out mate LOL. 

#ignoreuser #bringonbrexit #stoptalkingtopeopleyoudontconsidertobepeople

[remake it + 288]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

This entire thread has now devolved into a bunch of thin skinned, adolescent bickering.

It seems to me that many folks on here need to find a hobby and stop whining on this forum.

A viable replacement for Oilpro, this forum is not.

Just my opinion, but watch the comments from all those that get their knickers in a twist...

Your on-topic contributions here have been politically naive and typically insulting when you show only a rudimentary understand of a situation and get exposed for such.

By all means venture an opinion, however, why not do what @Marcin does and place it after a situation has been analysed and options considered.

Note the thread title: it's about what the US is doing in Iraqi and it turns out to be one of the most prescient started. 

Your idea that the US should take its bat and ball and play only in the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq would be equivalent to them withdrawing their embassy from mainland China and placing it instead in Taiwan.  To not appreciate the repercussions of your idea is symptomatic of many of the other responses in this thread and others at the forum which are unable to grasp the severity of not only what has just happened, but the consequences that can befall oil, some of which @James Gautreau has spelled out.

This forum's geopolitical commentary is every bit as meaningful as anything ever put up at Oilpro as what happens after oil is out of the ground has greater repercussions on the larger audience.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

21 minutes ago, remake it said:

This forum's geopolitical commentary is every bit as meaningful as anything ever put up at Oilpro as what happens after oil is out of the ground has greater repercussions on the larger audience.

You continue to surprise me.  Interesting observation.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

6 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

You continue to surprise me.  Interesting observation.

Remake it the bot didn't write it, obviously. It's more than a single sentence and has punctuation. But whoever did write it did exceptionally better than remake it ever could.  

[remake it + 288]

27 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Remake it the bot didn't write it, obviously. It's more than a single sentence and has punctuation. But whoever did write it did exceptionally better than remake it ever could.  

.

[Papillon + 485]

The sentence Mr Kirkman complimented actually is one sentence sir, plus it has no punctuation, but other than those small details it is a valid point.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Papillon

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 1/1/2020 at 3:00 PM, remake it said:

Kurds have no "nation" and self-identify through a diaspora so your points are invalid and wrt the USA's efforts there were many global headlines denouncing the foolish position Trump took regarding an alliance they had with the Kurds in Syria.

Join the cause for Kurdish unification to create the great Kurdistan from All of Eastern Turkey down to EAstern Syria and Iraq and Western Iran, all the way down to just north of the Basra region. With their own oil in hand they would love to unify into a nation state, various Kurd factions have been at it since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. 

Kurds are an ethnic group and identify themselves as such within their traditional territory and in their diaspora. You have it wrong. Go research it for yourself and forget the European media. They are no more likely to get it right than Al Jazeera or the Washington post of Fox news.

[remake it + 288]

6 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

You have it wrong.

Yes, maybe time to burn a few thousand books and rely on this forum for sage advice.

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 1/2/2020 at 12:13 PM, James Gautreau said:

They attacked Saudi Oil with drones and the intent was to take a certain amount of crude off the market for an extended period of time. The Saudis have about 200 million barrels in storage in their system. America has about 450 million barrels. Now whatever was knocked off line was replaced by Iraqi barrels, stored barrels, and it turned out to be a blip. All Saudi production was back online in a month. Trump did not attack. Recently Iran lobbed rockets into an American camp killing an American contractor. This time Trump attacked, killing 25, and stirring up Iraq protests at the American embassy. The math is not hard. Attack oil assets, nothing. Kill an American, swift and severe retaliation. I think a lot of this is his faith in American LTO, which I think is peaking as we speak. Iran has many large conventional ICBM's that they could lob into the Saudi oil facilities and take them off line for 6 months, virtually assuring that sanctions will be lifted and Iran crude sold on world markets again. Prices would compel Trump to mediate. This is terrible strategy for Trump. He has backed himself into a corner. Is America going to go to war with Iran? Of course not. This is a Trump truism. He cannot start a Middle East war. I believe Iran will take out Iraq and Saudi facilities. It's a no lose situation for Iran. 

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/irans-missiles-keep-getting-better-and-better-more-advanced-and-deadly-35267

You mean virtually assuring that Iran has no oil producing regions since they will be taken over by the US and allies and Iran will only see the proceeds in the form of humanitarian supplies. Flattening Qom is sufficient to stop Iran's leadership from functioning, that would assure internal strife and collapse. Only the Russians would be there to give a hand if they get enough in return. The US only needs to provide air cover and invite the Sunni countries/mobs to invade Iran and take over the narrow oil region. Once that is done, it would become a UN protectorate and the oil revenue put in trust. 

As to Iran's military, its might is entirely what the Chinese and Russians decide it to be. The only question is how much these two countries are willing to put on the line, and whether the US would decide to counter the China axis support or withdraw and I don't know which way it would go. My guess is that China would rather not provide the support it is making a show of in the Joint exercises. It is not ready to be carved out of the global order, which would be the immediate consequence. 

There is little Iran can do to the Saudis without hitting Americans in the process. Just as in NATO Europe, American forces and personnel sit up front as a tripwire to get the US involved in any case of real action. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

 

“Your idea that the US should take its bat and ball and play only in the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq would be equivalent to them withdrawing their embassy from mainland China and placing itinstead in Taiwan. “

 

First, the Iraqi Parliament voting kick the US out for assassinating a known terrorist on their soil in non-binding and purely symbolic (look it up if in doubt). But let’s assume that they do kick us out of Iraq, but that the Kurds in Erbil, the capital of their autonomous region, ask us to maintain a presence, do you ignore the desires of the Kurds? Last month the anti-American crowd was berating Trump for throwing the Kurds under the bus...but now it is acceptable?

 

Same for Taiwan, just because the mainland Chinese claim it as a ‘lost province’ does not make it so. Except for angering the mainland Chinese, what is to stop any nation from posting an embassy in Taiwan?

 

The US finally honored a bill passed in the 50’s to move their Israeli embassy to Jerusalem. Again, the anti-US/anti-Israel crowd screamed that this was illegal (keep in mind the bill was passed in the 50’s). After the initial liberal media storm this issue has fallen by the wayside. The same thing would happen if the US opened embassies in Kurdistan or Taiwan.

[remake it + 288]

31 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Same for Taiwan, just because the mainland Chinese claim it as a ‘lost province’ does not make it so. Except for angering the mainland Chinese, what is to stop any nation from posting an embassy in Taiwan?

If you do not understand the problems that arise, then the rest of your comments will make perfect sense to you.

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 1/2/2020 at 3:17 PM, James Gautreau said:

And he also inherited a growing, strong economy from Obama. Take the good with the bad. He has indeed abandoned diplomacy.The way you know Trump is full of shit is he won't tell you what he wants, he won't tell you his healthcare plan except it's far less expensive and so much better than Obamacare, He won't tell you why it's perfect just that it is, and you know it and I know it. He won't say what was wrong with the old deal just that it's terrible, the worst deal ever made. He talks maximum pressure, but pressure cuts both ways and he's about to find that out. About 65 million people in America, maybe the same in Russia like this guy. Everybody else wants him gone. He doesn't stand a chance. The biggest weapon OPEC has is the price of oil. They will use it. Just like when we peaked in 1970 and soon after they embargoed us. Torched the 1970's. They're going to do it again, as soon as they're sure American LTO has peaked. 

 

On 1/2/2020 at 3:44 PM, James Gautreau said:

You can't just say it, you have to prove it. GDP was 2% Q4 2016, 2.25 % Q12017. The rest of the comments are just facts.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

What Obama got was a 1.5% annual boost from monetary expansion by the Fed. What Trump got was a 1.4% annual shrinkage of reserves. During 2018, the Fed took out the entire cash hoard moved into the US from abroad with the new 10% repatriation tax. They effectively sterilized the corporate tax cut. It could not have had an economic effect since the Fed effectively undid it. I think Obama was an abysmal economic performer and Trump is much better, but for the trade war. Not because it isn't necessary, but because he did it crudely and didn't follow a well thought out plan. Though Trump demands from China appear absurd from outside the trade debate, they are necessary for any continued Chinese participation in the global economy. The alternative is to treat China like Russia, or even Iran. 

The demands of a free market system of its member states are: No subsidies, no free electricity, no subsidized credit, no infinite rollovers of unpaid interest for SOEs, no tech transfers, no tech theft, no forced domestic partnerships, independent courts to enforce all of this, (and put the CCP under law rather than above it).  Finally, an open capital account, which in neo con terms means draining China's capital and bankrupting the SOEs and the SOE banks that fund them and having China suffer a Greece like recession or alternately have them monetize the debt as they did in 1994-5 and have a large inflationary spike and currency fall (25% and >30% in 1995) that would remove them from the oil market in part, and reset their economy. Alternately, they can stay as they are and gradually pass out of the international trading system and close up again.

 

That said, Obama didn't try to stop fracking but didn't support much of anything economically useful but alt. energy. In which he had success in setting a course forwards with solar to hydrocarbon technology. The Industrial growth of Obama's time is made up entirely of the shale boom and the emergence of ecommerce deliveries made possible by the cheap oil that shale enabled. Trump is trying to get the downstream industries to develop. Chemicals petro and high energy ones, steel and aluminum, then plastics and 3D printed parts, then further downstream.  Look at the Ohio valley.

I don't think  you are looking at actual economic performance in economic terms but have a Democratic political perspective - looking to prove a point rather than do an analysis. Same as your attitude to analyzing the Shale finance and economics, only looking to support the notion that oil prices would spike and stay high. It is very useful to me. Keep it up, but don't  let it color your actual understanding of things.  

I suspect that drilling the Argentine shale is what is happening right now. As international rig counts have been increasing strongly for a year running while US rigs are down. Do you happen to know where all the international drilling activity is happening?

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, remake it said:

Yes, maybe time to burn a few thousand books and rely on this forum for sage advice.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kurd

Perhaps you should read some of the books before you burn them.

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 1/4/2020 at 11:09 AM, Marcin said:

@Boat People build organizations like UN, International Court of Justice etc. for a reason. Cause we believe in justice, law, human rights, sovereignty etc.

And sometimes countries need to do sth dirty to take care of their interests, it happens all the time.

But again they are not bragging about it, like people sometimes do fart in ballrooms, cause they need, but try to assure plausible deniability.

Yet Trump, like Tarzan, was brought up in New York real estate jungle, so he was not educated about basic manners.

And because Trump is, unfortunately for US citizens, the face of the nation, US is going down the drain with him.

 

The world court is nothing like what you are describing. It is a political organization created against the US for the purpose of containing it in a monopolar world. Sort of like King Jame's tutors who tried to put the fear of god into him because he was to be an absolute monarch restricted only by the laws of physics, so they translated the bible into a laundry list of sins and abominations.  It may have had some real support by idealists that believe transnational organizations serve something other than purely mercenary and political causes, particularly among the administrator class and their counterparts in media. 

The US hunted down Saddam Hussein and he wasn't just a leader but the president of his country. Soleimani as an Iranian soldier of high rank responsible for an act of war on US sovereign soil so is most definitely a legitimate target.

Iran opened itself up to any degree of retaliation with the invasion of the US embassy. Just as it did when it bombed the Saudi facilities. They declared war on Saudi and the US. They were clumsy and far too cocky in thinking that there is a degree of separation and their tracks are covered by plausible deniability. Perhaps for an administrative type like Remake it that  means something. But not to anyone else. 

What Trump did is not unusual and has plenty of precedence. Your freaking out over it is baffling.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

I should add that Osama Bin Laden was killed on Pakistani soil without consultation. Did that freak you out too?

[remake it + 288]

33 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kurd

Perhaps you should read some of the books before you burn them.

That's like saying reading a dictionary lets you not only understand but also appreciate Ulysseys - can't you do better?

[0R0 + 6,251]

47 minutes ago, remake it said:

That's like saying reading a dictionary lets you not only understand but also appreciate Ulysseys - can't you do better?

Can you do better than just making the claim?  

Kurds are a nation. What they don't have is a state of their own with Kurdish as the official language. They have a right to self determination. Why do you think that they are anything less than that? 

Edited January 6, 2020 by 0R0