This is how the US military is protecting the Strait of Hormuz

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Personally, I wish the U.S. could extract itself from the endless morass that is the Middle East incessant religious and sectarian warfare.

Wishful thinking. 

Anyway, since the U.S. is still tied to protecting Saudi Arabia due to the old petrodollar arrangements, the U.S. continues to (pointlessly in my opinion) try to keep the peace around the oil shipping chokepoint around the Strait of Hormuz. 

Sometimes I think it might be better for Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and then pay the consequences from global fury for their actions.

With tensions rising again between U S. and Iran (and Irianian-backed Hezbollah attacking U.S. Embassy in Iraq) here is a bit of infomercial from the U.S. Military Times newsletter.

 

This is how the US military is protecting the Strait of Hormuz

A Griffin missile is launched from the patrol coastal ship USS Hurricane (PC 3) during a test of the MK-60 Griffin guided-missile system. The exercise demonstrated a proven capability for the ships to defend themselves against small boat threats and ensure maritime security through key chokepoints in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (Spc. Benjamin Castro/Army)

Iranian small boat threats, limpet mines and Tehran-backed forces armed with cruise and anti-ship killing missiles are just a few of the threats to the shipping channel in the Persian Gulf that supplies nearly one-fifth of the world’s global crude oil.

To bolster the security of US warships at sea operating in tight waterways around the Middle East, the U.S. conducted an exercise in December using Griffin missiles fired from the U.S. Cyclone-class ship Hurricane.

The exercise, which was conducted in the Arabian Gulf, showcased how U.S. Navy and Coast Guard ships can counter small boat threats in the region. The Griffin missile, developed by Ratheyon, is an air and ground launched missile.

The Navy uses a version of the Griffin known as the Mk-60 Patrol Coastal Griffin Missile System installed on cyclone class patrol coastal ships.

Military Times reached out to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command regarding the Griffin test and have yet to receive a response.

Griffins are also used with the Marine Corps’ KC-130 Harvest Hawk system, which turns the Marine tanker into a gunship capable of providing air support.

The exercise highlighted another means in which the U.S. is rapidly reacting to the dynamic threats in the Middle East by finding new ways to utilize various weapon systems to bolster security for ships in operating in choke points threatened by Iran and its web of militias and proxy forces.

Other security measures taken on board U.S. warships during choke point transits have included the use of Marine light armored vehicles armed with the 25 mm bushmaster chain gun parked on the flight deck.

Marines toting anti-tank Javelin missile systems have also manned the rails to help spot and counter potential small boat threats during transits of the Strait of Hormuz and other choke points.

And in 2019, the 22nd and 11th Marine Expeditionary Units strapped a Polaris MRZR system armed with an electronic jammer when they navigated tight waterways in the U.S. Central Command area of operations.

The system, known as the Light Marine Air Defense Integrated System, or LMADIS, downed an Iranian drone in July near the Strait of Hormz, according to U.S. defense officials. The LMADIS was parked on the deck of Wasp-class amphibious assault ship Boxer as it prepared to transit the strait.

Iran is believed to be behind a number of attacks over the summer on commercial ships operating in tight waterways in the Middle East.

U.S. officials have also blamed Iran for an attack on two Saudi Arabian oil fields in September that briefly cut the country’s oil production nearly in half. Cruise missiles and drones bearing Iran’s signature are believed to have been used in the strikes, according to a State Department brief obtained by Military Times.

In response to Iran’s malign behavior, the Pentagon has deployed an additional 14,000 US troops over the past six months to the Middle East, to include fighter aircraft, Patriot missile systems. Those additional forces have also beefed up manpower on U.S. warships in the region.

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has said the Pentagon may deploy more troops in the region to confront Iran.

To protect and increase surveillance of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait the U.S. has also cobbled together an international maritime security ring — that now includes seven nations — dubbed Operation Sentinel.

A spokesperson with Operation Sentinel told Military Times that the operation “is a maritime security framework with mission layers called Sentinel, Sentry, and airborne surveillance or intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).”

“In Sentinel operations, large naval ships provide over watch of critical choke points through coordination with other military and civilian shipping, as well as by observing patterns of life through surveillance,” the spokesperson explained.

“In Sentry operations, smaller ships patrol and provide a persistent maritime presence between Sentinel ships,” the spokesperson said.

Airborne surveillance also keeps watch over the tight channels.

The mission does not include visit, board, search and seizures of vessels, the spokesperson explained, but the maritime security mission became operational “unsafe activity directed against commercial shipping stopped currently.”

“This maritime security framework enables nations to provide escort to their flagged vessels while taking advantage of the cooperation of participating nations for coordination and enhanced maritime domain awareness and surveillance,” the spokesperson said.

 

Video:

https://www.dvidshub.net/video/730723/griffin-missile-exercise-19

 

[Marcin + 519]

Tom, nobody cares about Middle East (neither does US).

It is only about hydrocarbons.

Once oil is depleted they will be left to themselves.

[Papillon + 485]

49 minutes ago, Marcin said:

Tom, nobody cares about Middle East (neither does US).

It is only about hydrocarbons.

Once oil is depleted they will be left to themselves.

Precisely sir, and now the US have vast amounts and production themselves so need not pretend to care. Having said that, they care about the countries they sell arms to, and turn a blind eye to, when for instance it butchers their own journalists to pieces. In these cases their 'care' and priorities are telling, especially when so happily criticising other nations for human rights.

Maybe if Saudi Arabia was a threat to the USA, as China is, then there would be more mentions of them here? Imagine if you will the reactions here if Mr Khashoggi was murdered in China ... when it is Saudi Arabia it is brushed under the carpet and even on this site I discovered jokes from Americans about the incident. If it happened in China there would be five threads about it. 

Incidentally, you appear to be the knowledgeable user with the stats in various subjects, so would you know at all what levels of oil are available in the region? For example how many years' worth each nation there holds at current global usage? This depletion you mention is decades away surely at a minimum, so what are your thoughts regarding the US' involvement in the region up to this point, as you suggest they would be left to themselves once depleted? 

Many thanks, Papillon. 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Papillon

[BigJets + 87]

32 minutes ago, Papillon said:

Precisely sir, and now the US have vast amounts and production themselves so need not pretend to care. Having said that, they care about the countries they sell arms to, and turn a blind eye to, when for instance it butchers their own journalists to pieces. In these cases their 'care' and priorities are telling, especially when so happily criticising other nations for human rights. Maybe if Saudi Arabia was a threat to the USA, as China is, then there would be more mentions of them here? Imagine if you will the reactions here if Mr Khashoggi was murdered in China ... when it is Saudi Arabia it is brushed under the carpet and even on this site I discovered jokes from Americans about the incident. If in China there would be five threads about it. 

Incidentally, you appear to be the knowledgeable user with the stats in various subjects, so would you know at all what levels of oil are available in the region? For example how many decades worth each nation there holds at current global usage? This depletion you mention is decades away surely at a minimum, so what are your thoughts regarding the US' involvement in the region up to this point, as you suggest they would be left to themselves once depleted? 

Many thanks, Papillon. 

Khashoggi “journalist” Lol  I would put my money on Muslim brotherhood, mossad or deepstate operative (see Josef misfud; along the same vein).  Perhaps all 3.  

and

Pretty sure journalist “disappear” in China all the time.  Our communist media doesn’t bat an eye.  Doesn’t fit their narrative.  

[Papillon + 485]

22 minutes ago, BigJets said:

Pretty sure journalist “disappear” in China all the time.

Whataboutism. Thankyou. Instant, like a disease here. 

22 minutes ago, BigJets said:

Khashoggi “journalist” Lol  I would put my money on Muslim brotherhood, mossad or deepstate operative

Of course you would, that makes hacking him to pieces absolutely fine then. 

Thankyou also for the picture that American companies will all say and do whatever China apparently wish. I'm not entirely sure what point you are trying to prove with that? I guess that you have no morals in various American industries where there is money is to be made? Good point, I agree. Odd that you admit it so blatantly as an American but thankyou I guess. Like taking candy from a baby as you say. Finally thankyou for completely ignoring the part about selling arms to SA but this is all part of the selective replying that I've grown accustomed to here. 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Papillon

[Marcin + 519]

2 hours ago, Papillon said:

Precisely sir, and now the US have vast amounts and production themselves so need not pretend to care. Having said that, they care about the countries they sell arms to, and turn a blind eye to, when for instance it butchers their own journalists to pieces. In these cases their 'care' and priorities are telling, especially when so happily criticising other nations for human rights.

Maybe if Saudi Arabia was a threat to the USA, as China is, then there would be more mentions of them here? Imagine if you will the reactions here if Mr Khashoggi was murdered in China ... when it is Saudi Arabia it is brushed under the carpet and even on this site I discovered jokes from Americans about the incident. If it happened in China there would be five threads about it. 

Incidentally, you appear to be the knowledgeable user with the stats in various subjects, so would you know at all what levels of oil are available in the region? For example how many years' worth each nation there holds at current global usage? This depletion you mention is decades away surely at a minimum, so what are your thoughts regarding the US' involvement in the region up to this point, as you suggest they would be left to themselves once depleted? 

Many thanks, Papillon. 

3 things you touched in your comment: 1. US hydrocarbons output vs consumption and US reserve currency (Petrodollar)

2. Khashoggi murder 3. Middle East hydrocarbons reserves and how it relates to point 1 of your comment.

2. Easiest&shortest to answer.

Saudi Arabia solved Khashoggi problem in the most amateur way possible and that is why persons responsible for this action were recently sentenced.

Any professional organization and representing solid country would sort this out in stealth manner: most possibly by accident.

Each and every country or people of power have to solve such problems from time to time. If it is done in a professional way, like one of most powerful US Families does it constantly, even 10+ unhappy accidents in a row make no mass media attention.

The latest case solved, has actually saved many lifes, cause now everybody keeps its mouths shut, cause everybody knows who is stronger: US with its institutions made of paper or real oligarchic interests.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Marcin
typo

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

2 hours ago, Papillon said:

Incidentally, you appear to be the knowledgeable user with the stats in various subjects, so would you know at all what levels of oil are available in the region? For example how many years' worth each nation there holds at current global usage?

Papillon this link gives an idea on estimated oil reserves for the top 8 countries.

As you can see the world isnt going to run out of oil anytime soon!

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/061219-saudi-arabias-oil-reserves-jump-30-billion-barrels-after-data-review-bp

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Its worth mentioning that not all of this 1.696 trillion barrels will be economically viable to extract, but also on the other hand this only accounts for the fields we know about not the fields that haven't been discovered yet, ie Arctic areas and some West African areas.

[John Foote + 1,135]

Keeping the Straits of of Hormuz open is relatively simple. Ocean going navies, like the USN, hate confined locations though since they are relatively easy targets, but nobody wants a full blown shooting war. The idea of the USN laying waste to parts of Iran is what protects the Straits, not individual weapon systems. Plus nobody really wants the Straits shut down. Let Iran sell on the open market and watch the tension go down. Except in Israel. And they can take care of themselves quite well and have the nuke option. Having Japan, or whomever, toss in the odd boat is just to spread the pain. If you took the Straits off-line for a serious length of time, it would be an economic mess for the world.

I suspect at time of that Khashoggi picture the US was celebrating the freedom fighters taking on the USSR and we were selling arms to Iran to fund anti-contra activities under an extreme following of the Monroe Doctrine. The fact Khashoggi was a green card US resident, when the event took place in Turkey, and by most accounts, there are very incriminating recordings, is what made its so ugly and embarrassing. And In Kingdom the actions would be quite legal. Abhorrent to my values, but quite legal.

 

[Marcin + 519]

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Papillon this link gives an idea on estimated oil reserves for the top 8 countries.

As you can see the world isnt going to run out of oil anytime soon!

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/061219-saudi-arabias-oil-reserves-jump-30-billion-barrels-after-data-review-bp

1. Yes, per  BP Energy Stat report we have oil for 50 years of 2018 output.

OECD consumption is flat in recent decade but non-OECD consumption is increasing +3.0% a year.

With this increase in non-OECD consumption and thus increase in future output to meet this demand the reserves are only for 36 years.

2. We need to understand what SOON means, what are individual and collective TIME HORIZONS.

I am 43, so in 50 years I would be dead or in dementia, oil scarsity not my problem, so oil is INFINITE resource for me.

With future output modelled with increase in future non-OECD demand, and thus 36 years of reserves the things seem different but not much.

For baby born in 2020, lack of oil in 36 years would be serious problem.

These were individual horizons.

(Of course when we say lack of oil, we mean lack of cheap oil, oil at say 200-300 USD per barrel, will be available for much longer, additional 50 years or so, till we have enough coal for coal-to-liquids processes.)

Now for country horizons.

When you plan the future of the country, physical infrastructure, transport infrastructure the time horizon is longer 70-100 years.

Now will give some examples:

a)It is not only propaganda when Chinese authorities are speaking every tenth sentence about the matra: "We need this or that to decrease reliance on imported energy resources" (oil and natural gas). They somehow know how to count to 50 or even 51.

One of major reasons for high-speed rail is to find alternatives for airplanes when jet fuel will be prohibitively expensive.

Now it is much easier and cheaper to built it,  and to reserve transport corridors.

b) US scenario. US prefers to spent outrageous money on military and is not preparing for the times when oil will be scarse. Their strategy is to control oil rich countries and probably try to grab last drops by force. Not wise in my opinion, but it is their trillions they spent on military and not on hydrocarbons saving domestic programs. So US 330 million people, consume 1,600 million tons of oil equivalent a year.

How US will cope with oil at 200-300 per barrel, majority produced domestically from dirty CtL technologies in 30 years ?

I really do not know.

Change of physical infrstructure, urban sprawl, people habits will take at least 2 generations and US has only 30 years.

c) Mandatory limits on fuel efficiency of cars, introduced for example in China.

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Papillon said:

Maybe if Saudi Arabia was a threat to the USA, as China is, then there would be more mentions of them here? Imagine if you will the reactions here if Mr Khashoggi was murdered in China ... when it is Saudi Arabia it is brushed under the carpet and even on this site I discovered jokes from Americans about the incident. If it happened in China there would be five threads about it. 

DING !!

No idea what thread it was on now, but read something similar the other day from @footeab@yahoo.com about not dealing with scum, full stop. Oh sorry, 'period'.

[BigJets + 87]

3 hours ago, Papillon said:

Whataboutism. Thankyou. Instant, like a disease here. 

Of course you would, that makes hacking him to pieces absolutely fine then. 

Thankyou also for the picture that American companies will all say and do whatever China apparently wish. I'm not entirely sure what point you are trying to prove with that? I guess that you have no morals in various American industries where there is money is to be made? Good point, I agree. Odd that you admit it so blatantly as an American but thankyou I guess. Like taking candy from a baby as you say. Finally thankyou for completely ignoring the part about selling arms to SA but this is all part of the selective replying that I've grown accustomed to here. 

If Khashoggi is even dead.  More likely he’s in the same place as Josef Misfud or Ghislaine Maxwell.  Anyway, yeah, sorry, no sympathy for Poor “mr journalist” khashoggi, from this (moral-free) American.  

Hmm sell arms to SA fighting Iranian Hezbollah (a mutual enemy); or buck the trend of Big military western industrial complex in ME.  Hmmm decisions, decisions. What is sure to get me removed from office, or worse....?  Which decision would put the American people first?... keep in mind many Americans don’t buy the Khashoggi journalist bit.  

Spoiler alert *** Globalist corporations headquartered in the USA have little to no morals left (many years of establishment shills counting their coffers as they sell out the American/western worker; for cheap Asian slave labor).  Enter Trump, America first! 

Wait, hold on... didn’t you say that Khashoggi was “brushed under the rug” Bc he was murdered in SA embassy and not Chinese?   Certainly, as you maintain, had it been the Chinese that did the butchering, then, and only then, would us heartless (zero moral) Americans care.

“Brushed under the rug” is a modest figure of speech for someone made Time magazine person of the year, “The Guardian of Truth”. 24/7 full court press news cycle for a non American butchered somewhere outside of America.  

My point is, if your deepstate “journalist” khashoggi was butchered in China he sadly would not have been Time magazine person of the year, “The Guardian of Truth”.  A journalist murdered in China, sadly, does not fit the communist media’s narrative.  However, Khash was conveniently butchered in Turkey at the SA embassy.  What honestly, could hurt USA stability, and/or Trump Presidency more than USA breaking relations with SA?  

Come on Pap!  I know your old but COME ON man!!?!??  I think I have an extra bridge to sell you! 😉

[Papillon + 485]

5 hours ago, BigJets said:

“Brushed under the rug” is a modest figure of speech for someone made Time magazine person of the year, “The Guardian of Truth”. 

I was unaware of this title he was given sir in all honesty, but my point about being brushed under the rug was merely in terms of coverage here on the website, in comparison to if the awful incident had happened in China, and what users' reactions would have been then. I was not suggesting certain people do not care, or that it was brushed over internationally, it was a reference more to being careful who your friends are, whether in real life or even with regard to entire nations, as it does not reflect well geopolitically especially when comparisons are drawn so often here for example, that was all. 

It appears we keep colliding oddly over this stupid, pointless, random competition within a magazine of all things and I gather you are not a fan of most winners of the title, whatever the year? I assume the nomination of Mr Schiff would still be a rather big no no in your book?  ... /sarc

5 hours ago, BigJets said:

Come on Pap!  I know your old but COME ON man!!?!??  I think I have an extra bridge to sell you! 😉

I don't know if something is lost in translation here sir but I have not to my knowledge heard this expression, or my memory is seriously failing me currently due to red wine. Could you elaborate please?

With respect, Papillon. 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Papillon

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, Marcin said:

OECD consumption is flat in recent decade but non-OECD consumption is increasing +3.0% a year.

This is going to slow down rapidly because China, the main cause of this increase in non OECD oil demand, is in a demographic contraction. New entrants into the workforce are down from 27 million/year in 2010 to 15-16 mil/yr. That is why their auto sales have dropped. The Chinese first time auto buyer is 10 years into the labor force. That means that this will reflect very soon in less oil imports as well as fewer auto sales as it already has.  

https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/

Only Africa has a strong demographic growth. But poverty is deep and investment levels remain low. 

India is no longer growing births. The current generation coming out of elementary and high schools is the largest it will ever see. It isn't much larger than its predecessors. 

https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2020/

[jdc88 + 2]

well trump assassinating the Qasem Soleomani isn't going to help calm things down, i trust Iran will respond to get the most bang for its buck perhaps another attack on another SA oil facility ..... 

Edited January 3, 2020 by jdc88

[0R0 + 6,251]

8 hours ago, Marcin said:

With future output modelled with increase in future non-OECD demand, and thus 36 years of reserves the things seem different but not much.

For baby born in 2020, lack of oil in 36 years would be serious problem.

As pointed out above, EM demand is not going to grow rapidly unless China US and Europe invest heavily in Africa. 

OECD + China demand has likely peaked already or soon to do so. Retired people do not drive much at all, about 1/4 as much as active adults. 

Europe's active population (working raising kids etc.) is going to shrink by 30%

https://www.populationpyramid.net/europe/2020/

Japan's active population is going to shrink by 1/2. S. Korea not much different.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2020/

China's active population is going to shrink nearly 30%, mostly this decade. 

India's active population will grow by 30%. But their economic growth is not ever going to reach Chinese levels of the past 4 decades. 

NAFTA demographics look better, what is going to be lost from aging Canada is going to be gained in Mexico.

SE Asia active adult population will grow by 30%. But not where development has already happened, so it will be in low income areas. E.g. Singapore will shrink by 1/2. Shrinkage is also the future of Malaysia, Viet Nam, HK, Taiwan and Thailand. The growth will come from Indonesia and most of all the Phillipines. I am not expecting booms to come out of that. And the  population is half the size of China's OR India's

https://www.populationpyramid.net/south-eastern-asia/2020/

So the more energy intensive OECD active population will shrink outside of N. America by over 30%, their oil consumption will decline by 23% even without EVs and more high speed rail. 

India does not have and is not looking to build the kind of road based infrastructure that would provide the kind of automotive expansion that China has had in its intense growth period. 

China's oil demand will only grow modestly as it completes its urbanization then fall rapidly. 

The oil demand picture is not strong beyond the next few years, and will be in steep decline by 2030. Unless US drivers all adopt Hummers for daily transport, then N. America will not contribute much more to oil consumption. Or Africa becomes a gleaming investor haven with clear property rights and rule of law and freedom of contract. Perhaps, but not bloody likely, considering the history. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

How US will cope with oil at 200-300 per barrel, majority produced domestically from dirty CtL technologies in 30 years ?

The technology is there already for solar cell methane production. It was developed from science out of UC Berkeley, Cal Tech at Battelle and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. It is viable at $150 oil. It was what makes Obama the ultimate energy president, it was his project. Further developments are coming strong.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/can-world-make-chemicals-it-needs-without-oil

Edited January 3, 2020 by 0R0
Added info

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

3 hours ago, Papillon said:

coverage here on the website, in comparison to if the awful incident had happened in China, and what users' reactions would have

You realize this happens every day in China already?  Where is the outrage?  Oh right, it just does not have bearing aspect on O&G so you are unaware of it.  I know one person dumped into China's prison system as we speak.  What was his crime?  "not respecting China" when China needed a public foreigner to blame their problems on.  Who knows if he is still alive, we have no idea. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

10 hours ago, Marcin said:

These were individual horizons.

(Of course when we say lack of oil, we mean lack of cheap oil, oil at say 200-300 USD per barrel, will be available for much longer, additional 50 years or so, till we have enough coal for coal-to-liquids processes.)

At this price, tar sands, Green river formation are 100% viable.  Even at the WWII ratio of only extracting 3% this still means that the USA has 300Billion barrels of oil in place(AUS has this as well).  Of course you are correct, CtL is cheaper and as Germany WWII & China today already found out, it is pretty cheap creating methanol.    So, assuming nothing changes, USA has at least 300 years of hydrocarbons to burn through.   Does not count the Tar Sands in Canada.  Of course at this price, Ethanol production becomes profitable under greenhouses in the western great plains even if you have to pump water up 1000m. 

[Papillon + 485]

10 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You realize this happens every day in China already?  Where is the outrage?  Oh right, it just does not have bearing aspect on O&G so you are unaware of it.  I know one person dumped into China's prison system as we speak.

I'm sorry to hear that but I fear you are misunderstanding my comment slightly. It was a reference to what the reaction has been and would be here if he was murdered in China and not in the Middle East. That reaction would itself be the outrage you reference, which is currently missing precisely because it occurred in the Middle East, My point was that if it was in China, users here would still be talking about it with regard to human rights. but when it occurs elsewhere these rights are not only not mentioned, but some users here made jokes about his death.

With respect to it not being related to oil or gas, I could say the same for the majority of threads, and hence the reason there is a geopolitics category at all. It would appear here that we can discuss muslims in China, or Huawei, or Hong Kong, or literally anything to do with China, and quite possibly zero will be about oil or gas. 

I do not mean to personally assume which users care, so I include yourself in this and wish the best for your friend obviously, but I am very sure from which comments I've read which users are not outraged in the slightest. They would be the ones making jokes about a man sawn to pieces, while talking of human rights. The act of picking and choosing which bits to reply to is very telling here sir, and that dynamic can also be applied to the morals of some. 

Respectfully, Papillon. 

[remake it + 288]

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You realize this happens every day in China already?  Where is the outrage?  Oh right, it just does not have bearing aspect on O&G so you are unaware of it.  I know one person dumped into China's prison system as we speak.  What was his crime?  "not respecting China" when China needed a public foreigner to blame their problems on.  Who knows if he is still alive, we have no idea. 

So China - if you are credible - uses its version of America's National Defense Authorization Act and you are complaining?

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, Marcin said:

It is not only propaganda when Chinese authorities are speaking every tenth sentence about the matra: "We need this or that to decrease reliance on imported energy resources" (oil and natural gas). They somehow know how to count to 50 or even 51.

One of major reasons for high-speed rail is to find alternatives for airplanes when jet fuel will be prohibitively expensive.

Now it is much easier and cheaper to built it,  and to reserve transport corridors.

The Chinese are approaching the end of the largest and most intense credit bubble ever. Their goal is to avoid importing anything because they will undergo a financial crisis more intense and severe than the US financial crisis due to large scale non performing loans just as they . had to do in 1994-5, just on a larger scale. While the world could absorb the exports that resulted from the Yuan's devaluation due to the intense money printing (it fell over 30% and caused an inflation spike of 25%) They are not in a position to do so because the world is already saturated with Chinese manufactured products, Second reason is that their workforce will be shrinking and with 43% fewer young people to employ, this time there will not be anybody to man the machines even if there were a market for their products. Politically, they appear to be turning inwards to close off China, as it is no longer competitive on the world market and their wealthy people are taking off and exporting their capital by hook or by crook.

They can never open their capital markets so can't develop into a financial center as they would need to be to in order to develop further in a global context. They tried. It didn't work.

.Bottom line, they adopted less efficient means in order to avoid needing imported industrial inputs and energy. They will be cutting a deal with Russia for some oil and gas supplies. But it will not be enough and even Russia will need to be paid with hard currency, at least in part. They have revived blast furnaces for producing steel from local low grade coal and low grade iron ore in order to avoid having to pay Brazil or Australia with hard currency for their high grade product. The process produces lower quality steel than the arc furnaces used in modern steel plants, and it consumes 30% more energy. 

Same issue with EVs. It isn't so much the high future costs of oil, but their inability to generate sufficient exports to pay for it regardless of its price. Besides which, their export revenue has stopped showing up in the Chinese banks and the PBOC accounts. The export revenues are simply not repatriated beyond import coverage. Their BOP accounts errors and ommissions reports to the IMF show an outflow of about  $ 1/2 trillion/yr on average, $650 Billion the last 12 mo. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

2 hours ago, Papillon said:

but some users here made jokes about his death.

With respect to it not being related to oil or gas, I could say the same for the majority of threads, and hence the reason there is a geopolitics category at all. It would appear here that we can discuss muslims in China, or Huawei, or Hong Kong, or literally anything to do with China, and quite possibly zero will be about oil or gas.

😁👍

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Okay guys, got a question for you:

Do you find the whole Khashoggi murder plot, as described in the media, as a little too orchestrated and implausible?

To me, the prevalent theory has a lot of holes in it:

The SA hit team flies commercial into an international airport and allows themselves to be captured on CCTV.

The SA hit team is again captured on CCTV at the SA embassy. They had to know the locations of each and every camera around their embassy.

How were recordings of the murder allowed to be made, and how did they end up in Turkish hands?

Finally, if you are going to whack a dissident, why would you even consider doing it at your own embassy? You now have no plausible deniability. Furthermore I would assume taking him out on the street would have been much simpler and would have avoided the whole issue of political murder.

If you make the assumption that SA clandestine operatives are simply incredibly incompetent, then the popular narrative makes sense. I fail to believe they were that inept.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay guys, got a question for you:

Do you find the whole Khashoggi murder plot, as described in the media, as a little too orchestrated and implausible?

To me, the prevalent theory has a lot of holes in it:

The SA hit team flies commercial into an international airport and allows themselves to be captured on CCTV.

The SA hit team is again captured on CCTV at the SA embassy. They had to know the locations of each and every camera around their embassy.

How were recordings of the murder allowed to be made, and how did they end up in Turkish hands?

Finally, if you are going to whack a dissident, why would you even consider doing it at your own embassy? You now have no plausible deniability. Furthermore I would assume taking him out on the street would have been much simpler and would have avoided the whole issue of political murder.

If you make the assumption that SA clandestine operatives are simply incredibly incompetent, then the popular narrative makes sense. I fail to believe they were that inept.

All the salient points nailed!

Its fair to say your interpretation of the events and subsequent questions are spot on, unless you believe the grandsons of Laurel and hardy committed the murder.