Denmark gets 47% of its electricity from wind in 2019

[Marcin + 519]

On 1/5/2020 at 7:39 PM, NickW said:

As EV's increasingly penetrate the car market this will generate a growing supply of 2nd life EV batteries which are perfectly good for storing power but have degraded as such they are no longer ideal for cars. 

Take 50,000 1st gen Nissan Leaf Batteries that have degraded to 14kwh capacity. Thats 0.7 Gwh of storage capacity that can respond in milliseconds and can be set up at multiple locations throughout the country(s) which will help reduce transmission losses which can be an issue with pump storage in far flung places. 

Now apply that to Tesla, Renault (zoe), BMW etc. 

And apply to all those PHEV / HEV vehicles. 

But if Germany would go Denmark way in renewables they would need storage about 1 week of consumption, rough estimation 10 TWh, 10,000 GWh, 700,000,000 batteries from Nissan Leaf.

Batteries concept for energy storage is fancy total nothing like these Tesla cars, Hyperdope. They lack these 1, 2 or 3 zeros/orders of magnitute of storage capacity. First time I read articles about  these 3 Ellon Musk financial pyramids or phantasies call it what you like, I really thought the article was one great sarcasm and joke about these "inventions" but it was for REAL, people buy Tesla stocks etc., guy is billionaire. I think people with good lawyers and moral bypass could make billions, real time for snake oil sellers.

[NickW + 2,714]

1 minute ago, Marcin said:

But if Germany would go Denmark way in renewables they would need storage about 1 week of consumption, rough estimation 10 TWh, 10,000 GWh, 700,000,000 batteries from Nissan Leaf.

Batteries concept for energy storage is fancy total nothing like these Tesla cars, Hyperdope. They lack these 1, 2 or 3 zeros/orders of magnitute of storage capacity. First time I read articles about  these 3 Ellon Musk financial pyramids or phantasies call it what you like, I really thought the article was one great sarcasm and joke about these "inventions" but it was for REAL, people buy Tesla stocks etc., guy is billionaire. I think people with good lawyers and moral bypass could make billions, real time for snake oil sellers.

With a electricity generating network with multiple different sources why would you need 100% back up? 

While solar and wind are intermittent you will get some output on even the dulliest, windless days. Germany has offshore  turbines and are building more which are less prone to extended down times. 

Hydro, Biomass, Biogas, Waste to energy are all dispatchable. It may have some geothermal capacity it can utilise. 

Realistically unless Germany goes back down the nuclear route it will need gas and coal to provide a proportion of  baseload.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

With a electricity generating network with multiple different sources why would you need 100% back up? 

While solar and wind are intermittent you will get some output on even the dulliest, windless days. Germany has offshore  turbines and are building more which are less prone to extended down times. 

Hydro, Biomass, Biogas, Waste to energy are all dispatchable. It may have some geothermal capacity it can utilise. 

Realistically unless Germany goes back down the nuclear route it will need gas and coal to provide a proportion of  baseload.

Solar in winter = zero.  Not some, it equals ZERO.  Solar panels do not even turn on for 3 solid months other than maybe one or two days a month at VERY low capacity factor of maybe 20% for at most 4 hours due to that nasty sun residing down south...  Why Germany by capacity factor of its solar panels is good for 85% of its entire power needs but by yearly needs obtains ONLY 5%..... 

Wind in winter = lots usually unless you have a high pressure which means you get.... zero.  Not some.  Zero.  Fine, you want to quibble?  Maybe 10% if you have a short low front move through.  So, most of the year, yup, wind is great.  But summer it dies off in many regions as well.  Be thankful Europe resides in the 40's lattitudes and greater.

Still, assuming you tried to go 100% wind/solar you need 100% backup for a week and far more likely 2 weeks as it happens usually twice or so a winter when there is zero solar and zero wind or near zero wind. 

Lets put this in perspective shall we?  Eastern USA Grid is approximately equal to the Euro Grid.  To power either of these grids via pumped hydro storage(disregard the inefficiencies assume it already in place), you would have to dump the entire great lake of Erie to sea level every day and a half.  So, in one week, you need the equivalent pumped hydro storage of 5 Lake Erie's, 200m head, and 500km^3.  Reality states you need at least twice this much. 

So, 10 lakes with 200m head by 500km^3...   Or one lake with 200m head by 5000km^3 or 1 lake with 1000m head with 1000 square km area by 1000m depth.

Or another way of saying You would have to dam up the Baltic sea by 75m and use that as your "pumped" hydro storage.  Good luck on that one... 

Or..... Dam up Every valley in the Alps(Austria/Switzerland so sorry, but your countries have to disappear under water)  to around 3000m level with lower dams below(1000m).  🤣🤣🤣  Oh, do not forget the perfect electrical grid sharing plan...

Good Luck filling those dams with water that isn't all salt water. 

[Otis11 + 551]

 

On 1/4/2020 at 10:03 PM, remake it said:

Its not that electricity is expensive in Europe, it's all the add-ons.  In the chart below notice how "acquisition" costs are less than 10 years ago

Just to give you a frame of reference - 'Acquisition costs in Texas are 1.8-4.3 c/kWh (Can actually go negative with wind, and can spike higher in certain shortfalls, but on any decent term, that's generally accurate). Transmission - aka Grid Fee - (and some minor taxes) is in the 3.6-5.0c/kWh range.

So that's 5.4c - 9.3c for power. Compared to 6.88 + 7.39 + 1.66 + 6.31 + CHP  and other surcharges = >22.24 c/kWh comparable.

Seems to me that even if you ignore the taxes - the cost of the electricity in Europe is still very high. And to be fair, you have to add the renewable surcharge into the total cost of 'Acquisition' because that surcharge was used to incentives the construction of lots of wind and rooftop solar. Otherwise it's like saying you're building the powerplant for free and 'acquisition' is only the cost of the natural gas to run it...

[NickW + 2,714]

19 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Solar in winter = zero.  Not some, it equals ZERO.  Solar panels do not even turn on for 3 solid months other than maybe one or two days a month at VERY low capacity factor of maybe 20% for at most 4 hours due to that nasty sun residing down south...  Why Germany by capacity factor of its solar panels is good for 85% of its entire power needs but by yearly needs obtains ONLY 5%..... 

Wind in winter = lots usually unless you have a high pressure which means you get.... zero.  Not some.  Zero.  Fine, you want to quibble?  Maybe 10% if you have a short low front move through.  So, most of the year, yup, wind is great.  But summer it dies off in many regions as well.  Be thankful Europe resides in the 40's lattitudes and greater.

Still, assuming you tried to go 100% wind/solar you need 100% backup for a week and far more likely 2 weeks as it happens usually twice or so a winter when there is zero solar and zero wind or near zero wind. 

Lets put this in perspective shall we?  Eastern USA Grid is approximately equal to the Euro Grid.  To power either of these grids via pumped hydro storage(disregard the inefficiencies assume it already in place), you would have to dump the entire great lake of Erie to sea level every day and a half.  So, in one week, you need the equivalent pumped hydro storage of 5 Lake Erie's, 200m head, and 500km^3.  Reality states you need at least twice this much. 

So, 10 lakes with 200m head by 500km^3...   Or one lake with 200m head by 5000km^3 or 1 lake with 1000m head with 1000 square km area by 1000m depth.

Or another way of saying You would have to dam up the Baltic sea by 75m and use that as your "pumped" hydro storage.  Good luck on that one... 

Or..... Dam up Every valley in the Alps(Austria/Switzerland so sorry, but your countries have to disappear under water)  to around 3000m level with lower dams below(1000m).  🤣🤣🤣  Oh, do not forget the perfect electrical grid sharing plan...

Good Luck filling those dams with water that isn't all salt water. 

Another post from an alternate reality world where Europes potential for renewable energy is based on the one turbine and one panel formula which completely missed the point that Europes regions and countries are heavily interconnected. 

This site gives data on solar output for the entire Europe region. Pick a location, orientation of panels and it will tell you hourly, daily, monthly and annual outputs in kwh / 1KW

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/pvgis

Zero Solar

So lets take a little look . These figures are KWh / KW of capacity by location in December for Germany going from North to South (South facing panels at 35 degrees angle) 

Hamburg 21Kwh

Berlin 26 KWh

Cologne 31 KWh

Frankfurt 31 KWh

Munich 47 KWh

Even in December Germany will be generating 1-2 TWh from Solar from its 45 GW of capacity. Small input but far from zero. 

For comparison in an interconnected Europe

Southern Spain - 108 Kwh

Southern Italy 74 Kwh

Southern France 92 Kwh

Wind

This site gives daily data on Europes wind fleet. Today for example capacity factors for onshore are 30% and Offshore 69%. The lowest I have seen wind as a % of Europes electric needs is 8.5% since the beginning of November. As larger turbines are used and more go off shore that figure will rise significantly. 

https://windeurope.org/about-wind/daily-wind/capacity-factors

Other renewables (that can provide baseload and peaking plant) 

Hydro - Norway and to a lesser extent Sweden see themselves as Europes Battery and are converting a proportion of their Hydro to pumped storage. Combined they have about 200 TWh of storage capacity and can generate about 45 GW at peak. 

There is huge potential for biogas given the needs for waste disposal, soil conditioners and energy. The Uk potential is estimated at 150 Twh. France and Germany will have more with comparable figures for Italy, Poland and Spain. Belgium and the Netherlands are densely populated and have intensive agriculture. There is a resource there in the region of 280 TWh of gas just from Manure (see link) . With food wastes and Organics from households that figure can be doubled. 

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/spatial-analysis-biogas-potential-manure-europe

Biomass - good supply of waste wood particularly across Eastern and Northern Europe. 

Waste to Energy. Ex. The UK has half a million tonnes of waste plastic that it increasingly struggles to recycle or export. Similar situation with paper and cardboard and similar situation across Europe. 

Geothermal - a number of hot spots across Germany, France, Italy, Hungary. Potential to Interconnect with Iceland for 1-2 GW. 

Further down the Development Line

Tidal. Although intermittent it is totally predictable and occurs daily (twice a day). The Uk alone is thought to have 25GW of potential capacity (usual capacity factor is 25%) 

Wave - massive potential if the right technology developed and likely to be baseload and predominant in winter. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by NickW

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/5/2020 at 8:12 AM, NickW said:

According to this (2016)

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/da.html

It consumes 33 Twh

Exports 10 Twh (mostly surplus wind)

Imports 15 Twh ( mix of Hydro, Nuclear, & Fossil from Sweden and Germany) 

Why not share baseload through the dreaded (well by OP.Com naysayers) interconnector ? 

It reduces overall capital costs and encourages mutual cooperation between countries. 

Most mainland European countries are heavily interconnected to take advantage of time differences and help reduce the risk of blackouts. Even the Uk has 4GW of interconnections with the mainland. 

 

They also pay two to three times as much compared to the USA. We would have to pay the same rates here if we wanted to follow their example. 

Other problems involve smoke, haze, fog, dust, volcanic eruptions lowering solar efficiency. 

Edited January 9, 2020 by ronwagn

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

6 hours ago, NickW said:

Another post from an alternate reality world where Europes potential for renewable energy is based on the one turbine and one panel formula which completely missed the point that Europes regions and countries are heavily interconnected.

Lets look up Germany's actual wind/solar output in January 2019 instead of playing in "perfection" make believe world of "potential" as Germany is a very large place.  So real data provide by the German government: https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm?source=all-sources&year=2019&week=

Solar capacity is ~45GW currently

Wind capacity is ~60GW currently( I think this is a bit high, but hey)

2019 January wk by week.  Wmin = Wind min GW; Smin = solar min GW

1. Wmin = 4GW  ~1.5 days; Smin 0(22 out of 24 hrs) ~ wk ave ~2GW ~2hrs
2. Wmin = 3.5GW  ~1 days; Smin 0(22 out of 24 hrs) ~ wk ave ~2GW ~2hrs
3. Wmin = 0.6-->3GW ~3+ days; Smin 0(20 out of 24 hrs) ~ wk ave ~7GW ~4hrs/day
4. Wmin = 0.6-->4GW ~3+ days; Smin 0(20 out of 24 hrs) ~ wk ave ~5GW ~4hrs/day

End of wk 3 coincides with beginning of wk 4 for a total of one week, just like I said in previous post when a standard winter high moves in.  No wind/No Solar.  Fine, you wish to quibble and call less than 5% capacity factor "power", uh, you go dude.  Somehow I prefer looking at the 95% of reality where needing power is required. 

Look at the surrounding months.  They all have week/weeks when wind/solar are very low to non existent. 

Note: Germany ~80Million ppl; ~70/80GW required every second; Add ~25% more to electrify transportation and another 35% more to get off NG used for heating/pwr even before we talk pumped hydro storage inefficiencies, lets just call it 100GW when add in population increase before heating consideration.  This jumps to 150GW required with heating considerations in winter for maximum load.

EDIT: As for "interconnect: do not make us laugh as a winter high covers all the regions that have wind potential in Europe all at the same time.  The only hope you have is the super expensive super crappy solar potential of Spain literally covering their entire country in solar panels for northern Europe who also wants Spain to grow all of their vegetables in the winter as well.  By the way, said interconnects would have to be hundreds of GW potential.  So, if Spain/France are A-ok with turning several strips of their country several kilometer wide into nothing more than power transmission lines just for their northern neighbors.... yea good luck with that one. 

Edited January 9, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com
Clarification

[remake it + 288]

4 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Sigh: I prefer actual data instead of pie in the sky make believe: Lets look up Germany's actual wind/solar output in January 2019 instead of playing in "perfection" make believe world of "potential" as Germany is a very large place. 

Except you are overlooking how Germany is but one player in a much larger energy turbine powering Europe so your example lacks meaning.

[remake it + 288]

8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

They also pay two to three times as much compared to the USA. We would have to pay the same rates here if we wanted to follow their example. 

Actual acquisition and distribution costs are only a few cents more per kWh than in the USA and that's in part due to there being a comparatively large component for distribution due to administrative/technical complexities in managing energy transfers across national borders.

[Boat + 1,323]

1 hour ago, remake it said:

Actual acquisition and distribution costs are only a few cents more per kWh than in the USA and that's in part due to there being a comparatively large component for distribution due to administrative/technical complexities in managing energy transfers across national borders.

You say that but the chart doesn’t.

[remake it + 288]

3 minutes ago, Boat said:

You say that but the chart doesn’t.

Taxes, levies, and surcharges accounted for nearly 53 percent of a total household power price of 30.22 eurocents per kilowatt hour (ct/kWh), figures by utility and energy industry association BDEW show.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 1/7/2020 at 5:32 PM, NickW said:

While solar and wind are intermittent you will get some output on even the dulliest, windless days.

Not really.  Recall the time of the Battle of the Bulge, Dec. 1944, where there was no wind for two weeks and low-hanging fog preventing aircraft movements.  That happens just about each winter in Northern Germany, I dunno the situation in Southern Germany, but would have to assume it happens there also.  

So:  what do you do for power and heat during those two weeks?  Time to crank up the nuke plants, and you better hope you have them.

On 1/7/2020 at 5:32 PM, NickW said:

Realistically unless Germany goes back down the nuclear route it will need gas and coal to provide a proportion of  baseload.

All true, Nick.   Now, ask yourself:   do the Greenies understand this?  or are they prepared to go live in a cold cave?  I dunno. 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Not really.  Recall the time of the Battle of the Bulge, Dec. 1944, where there was no wind for two weeks and low-hanging fog preventing aircraft movements. 

Yeah, loads of us think of this event I'm sure when we consider a ''lack of wind''   😂

Maybe you and @Papillon ?

The rest of us picture ''no wind'' Jan. 

I do anyway. I'm weird like that.

The best bit is that you mentioned even the month 🤣🤣 , like we are going ''oh yeah, I remember''.

You're hilarious.

Don't change  x

Edited January 9, 2020 by Guest

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

The best bit is that you mentioned even the month 🤣🤣 , like we are going ''oh yeah, I remember''.

When you get as old as me, and the diversions of happy youth in chasing women are out the window, then you can sit in your rocking chair and ponder the past, which for us old farts was the present (or close enough)!  

[NickW + 2,714]

15 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Not really.  Recall the time of the Battle of the Bulge, Dec. 1944, where there was no wind for two weeks and low-hanging fog preventing aircraft movements.  That happens just about each winter in Northern Germany, I dunno the situation in Southern Germany, but would have to assume it happens there also.  

So:  what do you do for power and heat during those two weeks?  Time to crank up the nuke plants, and you better hope you have them.

All true, Nick.   Now, ask yourself:   do the Greenies understand this?  or are they prepared to go live in a cold cave?  I dunno. 

Assuming Europes wind and Soalr fleet are not restricted to the Southern Corner of Belgium that risk is minimal. 

I'd agree German abandoning its nuclear baseload, especially in view of the fact it also plans to phase out coal is an interesting approach. 

[NickW + 2,714]

18 hours ago, ronwagn said:

They also pay two to three times as much compared to the USA. We would have to pay the same rates here if we wanted to follow their example. 

Other problems involve smoke, haze, fog, dust, volcanic eruptions lowering solar efficiency. 

More than half that cost are from taxes of which a small proportion go to renewables, the rest into the general tax coffers. 

Healthcare in Denmark is entirely free at the point of use. Whats your annual health insurance bill for the family Ron? 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

Assuming Europes wind and Soalr fleet are not restricted to the Southern Corner of Belgium that risk is minimal. 

I'd agree German abandoning its nuclear baseload, especially in view of the fact it also plans to phase out coal is an interesting approach. 

Nicky Nicky Nicky: Graphs I gave were for the ENTIRETY of Germany.  From the Baltic sea to the Alps for wind/solar.  ~Reached 5% capacity factor for a week.  Not a corner of Belgium.

When this weather pattern exists over all of Germany for a week+ at a time, and it repeats during winter, then it is a guarantee this same weather pattern will extend over all of Western Europe as well and more than likely all of Southern Europe.  When a High happens over North America or Asia, it covers an area easily several times as large as all of the EU.  The only half decent thing about a high pressure system is  that while it generally has ZERO wind for a couple weeks, it is generally semi clear, so you can achieve SOME solar.  Of course it is winter which means even on a perfectly sunny day your best is maybe 10%-->20% of name plate capacity on perfectly sited panels for all of 4 hours maximum.    Still need 24 hours of power. 

PS: You never design anything to the average.  You design to the worst case scenario.  Worst case scenario is 2 weeks or greater of no wind and no solar over all of the EU at the same time.  I would not be surprised if someone went through the EU Met office history where the longest high pressure system over all of Europe lasted over 3 weeks.  I know that is true here in North America and I see no reason it would not be true of Europe as well.  After all I picked last year and found a week long high system with no wind/solar in my first try.

[remake it + 288]

38 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Nicky Nicky Nicky: Graphs I gave were for the ENTIRETY of Germany.  From the Baltic sea to the Alps for wind/solar.  ~Reached 5% capacity factor for a week.  Not a corner of Belgium.

Again, Europe's grid (see below) subsumes Germany, and the network uses the swings and roundabouts of all generation capacities to keep the lights on.

[NickW + 2,714]

42 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Nicky Nicky Nicky: Graphs I gave were for the ENTIRETY of Germany.  From the Baltic sea to the Alps for wind/solar.  ~Reached 5% capacity factor for a week.  Not a corner of Belgium.

When this weather pattern exists over all of Germany for a week+ at a time, and it repeats during winter, then it is a guarantee this same weather pattern will extend over all of Western Europe as well and more than likely all of Southern Europe.  When a High happens over North America or Asia, it covers an area easily several times as large as all of the EU.  The only half decent thing about a high pressure system is  that while it generally has ZERO wind for a couple weeks, it is generally semi clear, so you can achieve SOME solar.  Of course it is winter which means even on a perfectly sunny day your best is maybe 10%-->20% of name plate capacity on perfectly sited panels for all of 4 hours maximum.    Still need 24 hours of power. 

PS: You never design anything to the average.  You design to the worst case scenario.  Worst case scenario is 2 weeks or greater of no wind and no solar over all of the EU at the same time.  I would not be surprised if someone went through the EU Met office history where the longest high pressure system over all of Europe lasted over 3 weeks.  I know that is true here in North America and I see no reason it would not be true of Europe as well.  After all I picked last year and found a week long high system with no wind/solar in my first try.

You present a counter argument to a scenario I have never presented - that being an economy run entirely on solar and wind energy. The fact that a modern economy couldn't realistically run on 100% wind and solar electricity doesn't support a claim that the economy couldn't run with 20,30,40% of electricity from these sources. 

Worst case scenario is 2 weeks or greater of no wind and no solar over all of the EU at the same time. 

I'd be interested to see this a weather map showing this over the entire EU especially given that much of the new development is going to be offshore. 

[NickW + 2,714]

Here you go Footsie - this is report on the 2012 cold spell in Europe which lasted a couple of weeks. That would appear to tally with your worst case scenario. 

Linky for your perusal

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/Coldspell2012.pdf

I not this on the 2nd from last page

In some southern parts of Europe (particularly in the Alpine region, on the western Mediterranean islands, in northern Italy and the northern Balkan peninsula), the cold and snowy weather was related also with stronger ­than ­usual winds, which caused additional discomfort due to a high wind chill. Gusts of more than 125 km/h were measured in valleys in Slovenia, causing damage to agriculture due to wind erosion.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

19 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

All true, Nick.   Now, ask yourself:   do the Greenies understand this?  or are they prepared to go live in a cold cave?  I dunno. 

Good question. 

Now, ask yourself this : Does greenies make policy alone in Germany?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

Linky for your perusal

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/Coldspell2012.pdf

I not this on the 2nd from last page

In some southern parts of Europe (particularly in the Alpine region, on the western Mediterranean islands,

Let me quote you and whom you quoted... and snip the rest 🙄  See bolded enlarged underlined edition.  🙄

Alpine regions are 1) Not large 2) Not buildable as you cannot get the materials to the location without herculean effort 3) have gigantic gust conditions making wind power a massive destructive force tearing apart any wind turbine where bottom blade might have 2X the wind speed as stop blade and vice versa.  Why OCEANs and PLAINS are chosen with zero obstructions for wind turbines with a few rare exceptions along the bottoms of very constant consistent valleys/ridges and 4) Why tower height is the #1 criteria for low maintenance, high reliability, and high capacity factor.  No gust conditions and wind varies much less and has the added bonus of being faster as well.  Thie above is why the UK, specifically Scotland has such wonderful wind potential and is being built as fast as possible.  Also why the Danes in the North Sea are doing so well in Wind.  Good wind, shallow water. 

Edited January 9, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Now, ask yourself this : Does greenies make policy alone in Germany?

Yes.

[Marcin2 + 725]

Renewables could have largest share of installed capacity in countries with high hydro capacity and large volume of reservoirs.

And grid has to be strong.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[Marcin2 + 725]

Large dams are often built for flood control, prevention of floods could have economically more significant effect than hydropower.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Marcin2
typo