What's the Endgame Here?

[Zhong Lu + 845]

He's POTUS.  Comes with the territory.  No different then what Republicans do to Democratic presidents.  

The more power a person has, the more shit they should receive.  Deal with it.  

Edited January 6, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Meredith Poor + 894]

16 hours ago, remake it said:

Killing people to become friends is an novel concept, while you seem to overlook the strength of "religions" in the middle east.

I'm not suggesting that killing the Iranian ruling class will make Iran a friend, I'm simply stating that the existing ruling class is pretty incompatible with western values and interests.

Conflicts between Iran (or Persia) and it's neighbors dates back about 2500 years. It's not likely to change in our lifetime.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Sure, but what's the endgame? And what costs are you willing to pay to get there? 

And by "you" I mean "you." Not "me."  I don't intend to pay a thing for this.  I want nothing to do with it. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[James Gautreau + 86]

Let me speculate. What if peak conventional oil and peak shale oil are happening now, specifically November 2018 as the peak for world conventional oil and the peak of shale oil is occurring now. The next couple of months will show this, and then the terminal decline will begin.The two best states to have are Iraq and Iran. They both have over 100 billion barrels of reserves. The last of the cheap easy oil. Trump sanctioned them like we sanctioned Iraq all those years ago. They were are little oil piggy bank. Ditto Iran today. Everyone thinks American LTO will last forever. Why? Because they told us so. When I was a kid they told me America had such abundant resources we didn't have to worry for 100 years. I lived through the 1970's. Led Zeppelin ruled lakefront parking lots. And all anybody could talk about was how expensive gas had gotten. Remember the last time people were talking about peak oil we invaded Iraq. Peak oil didn't go away, it just was delayed. And time's up. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

"Maybe this is the bottom."

"Maybe this is peak oil."

"Maybe this time we won't waste billions of dollars in the Middle East."

-Famous last words.  

Edited January 6, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[remake it + 288]

2 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

I'm not suggesting that killing the Iranian ruling class will make Iran a friend, I'm simply stating that the existing ruling class is pretty incompatible with western values and interests.

Conflicts between Iran (or Persia) and it's neighbors dates back about 2500 years. It's not likely to change in our lifetime.

Ok, so whenever the values of the ruling class become incompatible you kill them to be friends again.  Your next point about conflicts can be applied to any part of the world you choose so becomes trivial.

[Bob D + 562]

I love this mentality that a few missiles killing Iranian terrorists who planned and executed a terror attack on the sovereign soil of a US embassy is a war.  Stop hyperventilating ... you haven't seen anything yet.  The terrorists got what they wanted - 72 virgins!!  A simple thank you would suffice.      

The end game???  There is NO GAME if the embassy isn't attacked.  There is no game if Iran wasn't assaulting a US embassy (in a foreign county no less), internationally flagged VLCCs, Saudi Oil infrastructure, US Military drones etc. 

Bad actors thrive where weakness exists; think EU, Obama, UN.  World entropy increases when the US steps back.   

 

[Bob D + 562]

9 minutes ago, remake it said:

Ok, so whenever the values of the ruling class become incompatible you kill them to be friends again.  Your next point about conflicts can be applied to any part of the world you choose so becomes trivial.

Hey BOT

He was killed for a reason and deserved every molecule of shrapnel that ripped though his body!

That reason was not "the values of the ruling class become incompatible".

But you made your 5 cents with that post.  Congrats

[remake it + 288]

6 hours ago, Marcin said:

China & US will sort all problems of Israel after hegemony conflict will end its worst phase that is in about10 years (when China will close most gaps in technology & economic parity).

China has no interest in sorting out the problems of the rest of the world as its priority is to look after its own.

[Papillon + 485]

8 minutes ago, Bob D said:

Bad actors thrive where weakness exists; think EU, Obama, UN.  World entropy increases when the US steps back.  

The US stepped back as they elected him President I assume? 

9 minutes ago, Bob D said:

I love this mentality      The terrorists got what they wanted - 72 virgins!!  

Me too sir, the idea of receiving virgins as some form of prize is utterly ridiculous, however when a virgin bares a child who then resurrects from the dead this is of course not ridiculous. To remind you, this is the belief system of your nation primarily. 

I fear people do not understand hypocrisy here but the comedy is first rate. 

[Marcin + 519]

5 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Zhong Lu,

US tight oil resource is between 60 and 90 Gb.  How much crude oil does the US consume?  About 6.2 Gb per year.  Let's say the peak comes at about the half way point at 45 Gb (assumes 90 Gb of tight oil), the US has already produced about 16 Gb of tight oil, so about 30 Gb until we reach half of URR or about 5 years.

Peak oil is not about "running out of oil" it is about maximum World output, which is likely to occur by 2024 to 2026.

I agree the market is currently oversupplied, but by 2021 we will see oil prices rise and by 2025 Brent will likely be $90/b in 2018 US$, probably we will see Brent prices continue to rise to about $120/bo in 2018 US$ by 2027 and this might be enough to destroy enough demand so that the oil market stays in balance at 110 to 130/bo in 2018$ until demand starts to fall in 2040 or so as the World transitions to electric transport (both battery and possibly fuel cell).

I agree with you, apart from this fuel cell and battery staff. Both technologies (no matter what money is spent) are not substitutes for ICE. And you also have natural gas electricity generation, how you will cope with this ?

People are too stupid to not be afraid of nuclear and coal is dirty.

[Bob D + 562]

6 hours ago, Papillon said:

Hello Papillion

Let's try to stick to the topic or at least not go back more that 2000 years when discussing the End Game of a 2020 missile attack shall we?  I'm not religious enough to give a crap about your issues with Christianity. 

The US elected Obama and we got exactly what Obama stood for; globalism.  The voice of the world, bad actors included, was as important to Obama as the voice of America.  Obama placated Russia, bowed to the Chinese, sided with Iran and lectured the US from day one.  The geo-political issues of the day are simply the US fighting to recapture what was lost as Obama gleefully allowed the world to take advantage of the US (trade & defense).

It will take an all out, global effort to get someone into power in the US who will fore sake America for the rest of the world like Obama did.  You're seeing that now!         

 

 

Edited January 7, 2020 by Bob D
typo

[Bob D + 562]

10 minutes ago, Marcin said:

I agree with you, apart from this fuel cell and battery staff. Both technologies (no matter what money is spent) are not substitutes for ICE. And you also have natural gas electricity generation, how you will cope with this ?

People are too stupid to not be afraid of nuclear and coal is dirty.

You're afraid of nuclear power but support the environmental devastation and lethal toxicity of EV battery technology?

 

[Papillon + 485]

8 minutes ago, Bob D said:

You're seeing that now!   

Fair enough Bob.

Good day.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Imagine if they assassinated a US general, how would that go over? I'm guessing total war - this is a big deal.  Furthermore, assassinations are technically illegal.

People here who said they don't fear for their safety in the US might want to start again (remember 9/11 at all?) if religious artifacts get bombed.

I have to admit trump is a master of distraction; nobody is chatting about a wall not getting built, failed trade wars, impeachment, whatever... pick your failure. Is he so brash as to start a big war and then stop elections under some sort of "war measures act" (classic dictator stuff).

However, the Canadian oil industry is loving this.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Double standards, because Orange Man Bad and Obama was a saint.

Chuck Schumer in 2012, regarding Obama's drone strikes on terrorists:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PolitiKurd/status/1214258264407449600

[NickW + 2,714]

19 hours ago, PE Scott said:

I won't lie, as someone who generally supports President Trump, I wasn't a fan of this move. I don't see much winning here and its unclear to me how this would be a more effective way of protecting U.S. interest than simply removing personnel from the region and letting Iraq secure it themselves with U.S. financial and logistical assistance. Now, we've burnt that bridge too. 

We'll just have to wait it out and see how things unfold.

Quite. 

A deputy will simply slip into Soleimani's post and continue as usual with perhaps more care as to his whereabouts. 

Infact It wouldn't surprise me if someone in the Iranian regime tipped off the Americans - settle an old score perhaps? In any case this is just what the Iranian government needed - Islamic Governments thrive on crisis and what better than having your top military commander assassinated by the Great Satan! 

[Meredith Poor + 894]

6 hours ago, remake it said:

Ok, so whenever the values of the ruling class become incompatible you kill them to be friends again.  Your next point about conflicts can be applied to any part of the world you choose so becomes trivial.

Did you actually read and comprehend my last reply? Nothing I have written suggests that we kill anyone, either to make friends or for any other reason. The point is simply that Iran's behavior now isn't much different from what it's been over the last 2500 years.

[0R0 + 6,251]

22 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

This still doesn't make any sense.  If the goal is to keep "oil of out China's hands," then why are we attacking Iranians? 

It is not about keeping oil away from China but keeping China from controlling the oil. And you don't shoot China because it has nukes on hupersonic missiles. China is on the verge of a credit crisis and it will translate into a currency crisis. They are having such capital flight that only a small fraction of the trade surplus makes it back to the PBOC books to make payments on dollar debt.  $3.7 Trillion known dollar debt mostly via Hong Kong and Caymans registered borrowers. It is a matter of restricting China's ambitions by pushing them over the edge financially before the natural collapse of the credit structure 5-10 years from now just from demographics alone. Their credit to GDP is 2.75X officially, but with known off balance sheet provincial and Municipal debt, it is 3.7 X GDP. Which would have been fine if China were like Japan and have collected 4X GDP in gross external investment. But Chinese haven't done much of anything there.  Just about $3 T of capital flight which is no longer in Chinese control. 

 

11 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Zhong Lu,

US tight oil resource is between 60 and 90 Gb.  How much crude oil does the US consume?  About 6.2 Gb per year.  Let's say the peak comes at about the half way point at 45 Gb (assumes 90 Gb of tight oil), the US has already produced about 16 Gb of tight oil, so about 30 Gb until we reach half of URR or about 5 years.

Peak oil is not about "running out of oil" it is about maximum World output, which is likely to occur by 2024 to 2026.

I agree the market is currently oversupplied, but by 2021 we will see oil prices rise and by 2025 Brent will likely be $90/b in 2018 US$, probably we will see Brent prices continue to rise to about $120/bo in 2018 US$ by 2027 and this might be enough to destroy enough demand so that the oil market stays in balance at 110 to 130/bo in 2018$ until demand starts to fall in 2040 or so as the World transitions to electric transport (both battery and possibly fuel cell).

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/United-States-cements-its-position-as-world-leader-in-oil-reserves/

The complete figure for the analysis is 293 Gb of both conventional and LTO resources in the US. About 63 year's worth of current level production. The halfway mark would be in 30 years time. By which time oil demand will have shrunk 20% because of global demographic decline alone, and probably less than that through displacement of heavy vessel fuel by LNG and continued gains of market share by EVs. So a decline of 30% in demand. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

5 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Imagine if they assassinated a US general, how would that go over? I'm guessing total war - this is a big deal.  Furthermore, assassinations are technically illegal.

People here who said they don't fear for their safety in the US might want to start again (remember 9/11 at all?) if religious artifacts get bombed.

I have to admit trump is a master of distraction; nobody is chatting about a wall not getting built, failed trade wars, impeachment, whatever... pick your failure. Is he so brash as to start a big war and then stop elections under some sort of "war measures act" (classic dictator stuff).

However, the Canadian oil industry is loving this.

Sometimes I just shake my head at the rubbish you write. 

Do try to remember that you represent Canada to the Forum, so do make an effort to be literate!

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Did you actually read and comprehend my last reply?

Meredith, you are engaging with an artificial-intelligence Bot.  The Bot scans what you wrote and attempts to plug that into pre-programmed algorithms, then spits out a Response based on those algorithms.  You cannot expect that to "comprehend" anything intelligent or nuanced.  

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 1/5/2020 at 9:50 PM, Zhong Lu said:

So, again: why are we bombing them? 

Zhong Lu, you seem to overlook that US foreign policy and the White House are subsumed by, and effectively run by, the American advertising industry.  When the Executive blasts some Iranian warlord to oblivion, it is emulating the urgings of the AT&T Corporation  (huge US telephone company):   "Reach out and touch someone."  

[remake it + 288]

8 hours ago, Marcin said:

People are too stupid to not be afraid of nuclear and coal is dirty.

They call for you when stats are needed, yet you cannot work out levelized costs of electricity.

[remake it + 288]

3 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Did you actually read and comprehend my last reply? Nothing I have written suggests that we kill anyone, either to make friends or for any other reason. The point is simply that Iran's behavior now isn't much different from what it's been over the last 2500 years.

Perhaps you can put into simple English how eliminating the existing political class in Iran (which is exactly as you posed, per below) can be achieved by a means other than killing them off, which is what Trump has started to do.  

On 1/6/2020 at 10:49 AM, Meredith Poor said:

This would mean realigning interests with Western political interests, while would largely eliminate the existing political class in Iran - at least as we know it. 

 

[remake it + 288]

41 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Sometimes I just shake my head at the rubbish you write. 

Bot head had to be re-assembled many, many times after reading what Mr van Eck posted.