Long Oil

[Zhong Lu + 845]

May as well.  Looks like the bleeding has stopped for now.  We should be at or around various support lines.  Oil broke above 60 before this Iran thing. And this Iran thing can't possibly be bearish for oil.  At the minimum we've returned to where we before Iran, and oil was in an uptrend then.  

EDIT: Besides.  "US bombs Iran.  Iran bombs back. Oil goes into bear market."  This logic makes no sense.  

Edited January 8, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Out on the bounce.  Stupid oil.  Why can't you be successful like BABA? 

Edited January 9, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Am long oil again (just entered position with prices @ 58.47.  Also, currently long natural gas.

(UGAZ- entry was on Friday and Monday, UCO-entry just now).

Edited January 14, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Frankly, compared to natural gas, oil is easy and comforting to trade.  Rebalancing to more UCO, less UGAZ.  

EDIT: Oil may be a bitch sometimes, but it's not the EVIL BITCH FROM HELL (natural gas).  

Edited January 14, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Wow.  Just got stopped out of UGAZ at small loss (mental stop). F-ing bitch. I look away for 15 minutes and wham! Time: 2:31 pm. 

Reason: bad weather run (probably lots of red).   

Edited January 14, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Bob D + 562]

On 1/8/2020 at 1:47 PM, Zhong Lu said:

EDIT: Besides.  "US bombs Iran.  Iran bombs back. Oil goes into bear market."  This logic makes no sense.  

Let me adjust your timeline back 7 days Zhong

Iran attacks US Embassy in Iraq.  US bombs Iran (Iranian general in Iraq).  Iran bombs back. Oil goes into bear market.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

If we're going to go back, we may as well go back to 50 years ago when the CIA did regime change in Iran.  That's what began it all.  

Edited January 14, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Speaking of oil, the 200 DMA better hold or it's doomed.  

EDIT: Still, we're technically in an uptrend.  Look at the charts. We're at the bottom of multiple channels and bands. This should bounce, right? Right???????

Edited January 14, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

It is time to flee.  

[Bob D + 562]

21 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

If we're going to go back, we may as well go back to 50 years ago when the CIA did regime change in Iran.  That's what began it all.  

Did that cause a bull or bear markey???  But you couldn't trade oil 50 years ago Zhong.  LOL

On 1/8/2020 at 1:47 PM, Zhong Lu said:

May as well.  Looks like the bleeding has stopped for now.  We should be at or around various support lines.  Oil broke above 60 before this Iran thing. And this Iran thing can't possibly be bearish for oil.  At the minimum we've returned to where we before Iran, and oil was in an uptrend then.  

EDIT: Besides.  "US bombs Iran.  Iran bombs back. Oil goes into bear market."  This logic makes no sense.  

I was specifically pointing out that your "bear market" would not be in play had Trump not shown restraint.  The timeline is very important to understand this.  I think half of your reluctance to understand the "bear market" is your insistence to blame America.  Leaving out the US embassy attack in your timeline points the finger at US.  Including the US embassy attack makes it clear the US responded.   

If Trump had, out of the blue, killed the terrorist Iranian general then likely the hostilities lead to volatility which would further entrench the geo-politiocal risk; Bull Market. But the fact is Trump responded to the attack on our embassy by eliminating the terrorist Iranian general who planned and executed it inside Iraq.  Iran then retaliated with hostilities that killed 168 commercial airline travelers.  Iran's retaliation was a non-event to the US so Trump stood down and instead called for calm.  Trump's response, which was a speech not a military engagement, stabilized geo-politics and that makes oil go lower.

 

 

   

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Wait what? I was pointing out the fact that oil prices going down while Iran and US trade missiles = kinda weird.  

I mean, it is kinda weird, but it happened the last time, too.  Iran launches attack on Saudi facilities and oil dropped from 62 to 52 over the next several weeks.  I don't mix trading and political bias.  Not a good idea.

If you want to waste your time ra-raing your glorious leader and celebrate his glorious victories, go ahead.  With regards to Trump, I'm neutral.  As I see it Trump's no different then the Clintons, except a bit more obnoxious.  

Edited January 16, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Speaking of which, support at 200 DMA is holding.  Might jump back in again.  Currently I'm just doing wash trades as I try to make up my mind.  But if support holds into tomorrow....

[Bob D + 562]

12 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Wait what? I was pointing out the fact that oil prices going down while Iran and US trade missiles = kinda weird.  

I mean, it is kinda weird, but it happened the last time, too.  Iran launches attack on Saudi facilities and oil dropped from 62 to 52 over the next several weeks.  I don't mix trading and political bias.  Not a good idea.

If you want to waste your time ra-raing your glorious leader and celebrate his glorious victories, go ahead.  With regards to Trump, I'm neutral.  As I see it Trump's no different then the Clintons, except a bit more obnoxious.  

Got it.  My only point is If Trump had escalated (by responding to Iranian missiles, oil is higher.  Trump stabilized the situation by not responding and calling for calm. So no need for higher oil prices as a result.  

No Ra-raing.  Simply stating IMO why oil is lower.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

I'm either long or neutral on oil.  Not shorting oil now because I expect a large truck bomb to explode on an American base anytime within the next 6 months.  These truck bombs take time to build and plan, which is why I thought it was alright to short it earlier.   It's something you really can't plan for, unless you want to pay a hefty premium. 

So if you want to believe "the situation is stabilized," go ahead.   

Edited January 16, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

I like ETFs, but if you're an options guy or trade the futures directly, this is not a bad time to buy futures or calls 6 months out for crude @ 70.  

[Bob D + 562]

2 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

So if you want to believe "the situation is stabilized," go ahead.   

Come on Zhong

Did you go long oil with a 6 month horizon??  Nope. 
The situation was clearly stabilized and that's why oil went lower AND you called it a bear market.
No missiles, no bombings, no hostile rhetoric. 
And I never said the situation was resolved because it isn't.

I'd love oil to hit $70(WTI).  But oil hitting $70 ensures oil will hit $40.  The backwardation steepens leaving 2022 in the low $50's.

Prompt 58.50
Cal 21  52.50
Cal 22  51.35

Edited January 16, 2020 by Bob D
Pricing

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Iran doesn't want to start a war until it has nukes.  Wouldn't surprise me if they go all in for nukes, now.  

You'd go long with a 6 month horizon with throwaway money.  Like what you'd do with penny stocks.  It's not bad advice. The risk-reward is in your favor (20% probability of success, 6-10x potential gains).  Take it as you will. 

Edited January 16, 2020 by Zhong Lu