remake it + 288 January 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, 0R0 said: How about Remake it, the bot provide some factual components in his criticisms? I am sure his handlers can make the effort. There really is no point because you have said things which you believe and often do not even make sense such as 14 hours ago, 0R0 said: The recent generation of entrants to the workforce in China are 40 some % fewer than before and even if you meant 40% fewer there is no context as to when before. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 January 12, 2020 (edited) China labor force entry age population 20-24, retirement age group 50 -55 women + 60-65 men, net additions 2010 130 mil , 68 mil , 62 mil 2015 106 mil . 89 mil, 17 mil 2020 78 mil , 98 mil, -20 mil 2025 74 mil , 84 mil , -10 mil Why don't you choose your appropriate wording. 5 year groupings Edited January 12, 2020 by 0R0 Added info 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remake it + 288 January 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, 0R0 said: China labor force entry age population 20-24, retirement age group 50 -55 women + 60-65 men, net additions 2010 130 mil , 68 mil , 62 mil 2015 106 mil . 89 mil, 17 mil 2020 78 mil , 98 mil, -20 mil 2025 74 mil , 84 mil , -10 mil Why don't you choose your appropriate wording. 5 year groupings Nobody uses data like that unless they are fudging statistics - please get some help from @Marcin. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 January 13, 2020 So I should not look at statistics? And arithmetics is not produce legitimate calculations? I should rely only on your unsupported commentary? Your handlers can reply with something factual. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP January 13, 2020 China most definitely has an ageing population as @Marcin has pointed out previously. This is perhaps China's biggest challenge to overcome for the next decade or 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 January 14, 2020 (edited) On 1/13/2020 at 11:52 AM, Rob Plant said: China most definitely has an ageing population as @Marcin has pointed out previously. This is perhaps China's biggest challenge to overcome for the next decade or 2 It is no longer doable. There is a disproportion of males to females, and a gender segregation as rural Chinese send the women off to do service and small hand work in the cities and the men stay behind working the fields and supporting industries. The South China Morning Post has run an article on discrepancies in state reported births, in that there is a 2-3 million annual over reporting at the provincial level (IIRC) that does not show up later in school attendance at kindergarten age. So in context of the 5 year entrants to the workforce grouping, the run rate would be 50-60 million and declining in the next 10-15 years. In the meantime, the rest of their baby boom generation will retire. The Chinese economy will then shrink after a generational financial crisis. China will continue seeing increasing labor costs and incomes while demand does not grow in tandem as its baby boomers save for retirement and then retire. Thus the large debt funded capital base will be 30-40% worthless and need to be restructured, as the high income world can not absorb exports that capital could produce, and labor will be too tight to staff it. At the run rate of 9% of GDP (average for the last 6 years) in Municipal, provincial and central govt. deficit spending. (2/3 off the books) the country is running out of balance sheet capacity. After fighting shadow banking for 3 years, China has given up and prefers seeing its contribution to funding growth rather than control it via policy as they do for banks, which have failed to supply the private economy with credit (ex mortgages) due to incapacity of loan officers to understand business plans and cash flow projections without the state dictated pricing and supply volumes. They tried, it failed miserably, nearly creating a recession in the private economy. Big egg on Xi's face.. If you watch Chinese shows about student age dorm dweller's lives, then you will notice that the rooms have only 50% occupancy and some of the 8 beds used by 4 students serve as cabinet frames for storage. It will look more lonely in the future. Edited January 14, 2020 by 0R0 Added info Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Marcin2 + 726 MK January 14, 2020 (edited) I think that problem of Chinese demographics exists, like in every society, but it is not going to restrict Chinese economic development in any significant way. Edited May 14, 2020 by Marcin2 typo 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remake it + 288 January 14, 2020 (edited) 46 minutes ago, 0R0 said: It is no longer doable. It is your opinion and based on stereotypical understandings of how China works which simply is nothing like Western economies and opinions like yours have now been rife for 20 years and will probably persist for 20 more without ever coming to grips with why they are so wrong. Edited January 14, 2020 by remake it See Marcin's explanation posted at same moment which is not complete but very good. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Marcin2 + 726 MK January 14, 2020 (edited) An interesting observation. Edited May 14, 2020 by Marcin2 typo Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remake it + 288 January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Marcin2 said: Last and not least Western nations think of the individual as an economic unit but Chinese think of family an an economic unit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Most Active Members
Recently Online
Popular Members