Trump has changed into a World Leader

[Bob D + 562]

That's what can happen at 4am Tom.  The old adage "Nothing good happens after midnight" almost applies to your wake up time.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, Bob D said:

That's what can happen at 4am Tom.  The old adage "Nothing good happens after midnight" almost applies to your wake up time.

I like early mornings, long before others are awake.  5 scoops of coffee for a lovely caffeine buzz.  (I used to have 6 to 8 scoops of coffee, but I cut back for weight lifting.  Up to 250 lbs deadlift these days.)  Words come tumbling out as fast as I can type.

If you pay attention, you can probably differentiate between my early morning caffeinated blatherings (with my mind buzzing in overdrive, and for some reason, weird wording combinations that tend to have a lot of alliteration due to my dyslexia peeking out behind my eyelids) and my calmer end of the day comments.

 

/ edit    bonus infographic

[Boat + 1,324]

13 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

 

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

 

/ edit      Watching the livestream of Trump speaking at World Economic Forum at Davos.  An interesting random statistic  ... for every one new regulation imposed by the federal government, Trump required that eight old regulations must be removed.  Massive cutting of red tape.  It started out as two old regulations must be removed for every new regulation, and the ante has been upped to eight, currently.

/edit 2    Trump's speech was great.  MSM will be howling with fury, especially with Trump's gentle poke at panic mongers such as Greta.  Will MSM ignore Trump's TRILLION TREES initiative?

And just for fun ...

 

 

 

We all love Tom but sometimes one has to take on his disinformation campaign. When Obama took office unemployment was at 4.7% which was historically good. Of course the big economic crash engineered by GW and the Republicans had just started. 
In 2 years unemployment had reached 10% before hitting bottom. In the ensuing 6 years the economy recovered along with unemployment which was back to 4.7% which as I mentioned before as historically good. 
What we were led to believe is that when the economy is good, that is the time to eliminate the deficit and work on debt. What happened is Trump took an economy that was recovered and humming along and threw a massive tax break at it. So sure unemployment is now doing great but at huge cost to the deficit and national debt. Long gone are the T-party folks who preached austerity for the Obama administration. Long gone is the third rail of being a Republican who claimed debt was a core priority. These same politicians who refused more money in the financial recovery now find no problem cutting taxes and spending to inflate a false bubble that is not sustainable. 

[Boat + 1,324]

[Boat + 1,324]

Remember how pre war when GW took office the US was paying down the debt, there was no deficit. As you can see wars cost money along with tax cuts. So Obama’s first year had far less revenue and huge spending to do call “fill the financial hole” created by the crash. By 2012 the economy started its return to health. That 2016-2017 deficit while still very high was and still is supporting a bloated military budget and remnants of Middle  East wars but down from the the 1.4 trillion recovery years. 2017 also represents that 4.7 unemployment number that had been at 10. Remembering reality lesson 101 is concluded for the day. Now go out and do what you do best and chant like Iranian Muslims. Lock her up. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

18 minutes ago, Boat said:

We all love Tom but sometimes one has to take on his disinformation campaign.

Heh heh, go for it.  I fight MSM disinfo, and tend to employ hyperbole to make a point.  Knock yourself out making your own points, any way you see fit (without breaking forum general guidelines, of course.) 

What many people don't seem to understand is that just because I'm a motormouth doesn't mean I'm right.  I just write a lot.  And hope others feel free to have the gumption to write regularly.  For well over a decade, I'm up early reading non-MSM info and news and firing off numerous comments and typically starting a new thread or 2.  Did this on anon forums for many years before finally using my real name starting with Oilpro and LinkedIn.

Hey lurkers, try writing something every day, it is good for mental acuity.  Far better than shutting off your brain by watch TV.

 

[Boat + 1,324]

2 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Heh heh, go for it.  I fight MSM disinfo, and tend to employ hyperbole to make a point.  Knock yourself out making your own points, any way you see fit (without breaking forum general guidelines, of course.) 

What many people don't seem to understand is that just because I'm a motormouth doesn't mean I'm right.  I just write a lot.  And hope others feel free to have the gumption to write regularly.  For well over a decade, I'm up early reading non-MSM info and news and firing off numerous comments and typically starting a new thread or 2.  Did this on anon forums for many years before finally using my real name starting with Oilpro and LinkedIn.

Hey lurkers, try writing something every day, it is good for mental acuity.  Far better than shutting off your brain by watch TV.

 

My posts are strictly for myself and do not represent anyone but myself who will never be named or have an online profile. I have a human trust problem an the thought of all the fine people here at Oil.com wanting to check on my bkground seems very Chinese, Russian, N Korean etc. etc. 

In discussions there is bk and forth. Ya’ll supply the forth and I’ll get back with ya.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 minutes ago, Boat said:

My posts are strictly for myself and do not represent anyone but myself who will never be named or have an online profile. I have a human trust problem an the thought of all the fine people here at Oil.com wanting to check on my bkground seems very Chinese, Russian, N Korean etc. etc. 

In discussions there is bk and forth. Ya’ll supply the forth and I’ll get back with ya.

As a moderator I was alerted to assorted sock puppets (one person using multiple different user accounts to artificially skew discussions) and so I did some investigating to confirm or deny.  Normally I don't care and don't look.  I know nothing about you and haven't ever looked.  After cleaning up the forum over the weekend, I have really have no desire to go poking around again, unless the overall forum situation warrants it. 

Spammers and scammers get banned immediately, as soon as mods spot them.  Everyone else is basically left alone.  

You should be worried more about Google.

[Marcin2 + 726]

5 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Many Millions of baby boomers have retired since then. They've permanently left the employment rate for the green green pastures of golfing and leisure. These demographics are a surprise to no one. Generation X, Y plus Millennials don't add up to the Boomers.  

Employment rate is number of employed persons divided by total working age population.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

“I am currently unable to dream up a scenario where I would cast a vote for a democrat. So that basically means any alternative conservative candidate will get my vote. I seriously doubt if I am the only person in the USA that has this view of the current political system.”

I think you are one among many in your voting outlook. We no longer actually vote FOR something as much as cast our vote to prevent the less attractive candidate/party gaining control.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

15 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I don't think the orange man is too popular in Iran!!

https://news.sky.com/story/iranian-politician-offers-3m-to-whoever-kills-trump-11914041

I think it may be more accurate to say that he is not too popular with the THEOCRACY in Iran....big difference!

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I think it may be more accurate to say that he is not too popular with the THEOCRACY in Iran....big difference!

Fair point Douglas!

[frankfurter + 562]

14 hours ago, John Foote said:

The notion that Trump isn't a world leader is lunacy. Whether he is a world leader liked and/or respected, that is debatable.

The employment rate mime is kind of misleading. Mostly it is what was inherited. Reagan and Obama show horrible, but it's really the turd left from Carter/Bush43. Trump inherited an ongoing expansion, and deserves some credit by keeping it going, but it's Keynesian in nature, adding unsustainable monies into the system. Then again, few care about fiscal responsibility anymore so let's stay at the craps table and let it ride.

The Republican party did allow itself for a seismic shift with Trump per the drive of their constituents. The Democrats are lost a sea. They have the anyone but Trump vote, but that is a poor platform. You'd think Trump would have galvanized them, but nope, they still herd like cats that hate each other. On his forum you'd think they are almost communists or traditional socialist, but AOC isn't going anywhere, and really only Sanders is a socialist. The rest are probably slightly right of an Eisenhower platform, a legacy of Clinton, who talked liberal on social issues, but he wasn't liberal in any traditional sense of the word.

The democrats are completely out of touch with their own constituents, and paying the price. 

Truth is, we are a one party system in some respects. Truly Red areas and Blue states, all that matters is the nominations, where a small percentage, typically not centralists, determine the who. It's a messy system, barely works, but as was mentioned recently, what works better?

Depends upon how 'leader' is defined and evaluated.  

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

27 minutes ago, frankfurter said:

Depends upon how 'leader' is defined and evaluated.  

 

leader

noun

 

1. 1.

   the person who leads or commands a group, organization, or country.

   "the leader of a protest group"

    

    

   What is the definition of a good leader?

A simple definition is that leadership is the art of motivating a group of people to act towards achieving a common goal. ... He or she is the person in the group that possesses the combination of personality and leadership skills that makes others want to follow his or her direction.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

I think its clear he IS a leader.

The debate lies in whether you believe he is a good leader

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

20 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Employment rate is number of employed persons divided by total working age population.

Millennials don't count, literally

[SERWIN + 749]

18 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I think it may be more accurate to say that he is not too popular with the THEOCRACY in Iran....big difference!

There are a lot of people in San Fran, Chicago, NY that think Orange Man Bad as well. Sucks to be them!! And I do believe this will be one of the first POTUS elections that I want to vote for a specific candidate, not just for the lesser of two evils.... Wonder how many voters out there feel the same way?

[SERWIN + 749]

On 1/18/2020 at 5:50 PM, James Regan said:

He’s the man popular and handsome.

You make him sound like JFK....

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 1/22/2020 at 7:02 AM, Rob Plant said:

I think its clear he IS a leader.

The debate lies in whether you believe he is a good leader

Rob exactly you can be a boss or a leader, Trump is definitely a Boss and he is definitely a Leader. My point was that he had changed into a world leader, IMO he seems to have taken a crash course on how to act as world leader.

Is he a good leader well that's another story I never went there, only time will tell. Its hard to pick any good world leaders, in my lifetime I believe to have experienced one and the recoil of another those being Lady Magaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. I would challenge anyone to deny that these two icons were not good world leaders.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

2 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Is he a good leader well that's another story I never went there, only time will tell. Its hard to pick any good world leaders, in my lifetime I believe to have experienced one and the recoil of another those being Lady Magaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. I would challenge anyone to deny that these two icons were not good world leaders.

James you’re soooo right you should have 10 purple trophies for that!

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 1/21/2020 at 8:38 PM, Marcin2 said:

Employment rate is number of employed persons divided by total working age population.

To avoid lumping together retirees with working age folks. Use the working age group. That way you get a better idea of economic conditions. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Trump's Counsel rips apart every single Democrat talking point piece by piece.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

And the full 2 hours, 2 minutes and 16 seconds of the President's Counsel team. 

Trump defense presents arguments in Senate impeachment trial Day 5

Trump defense presents arguments in Senate impeachment trial Day 5

Chief justice to Trump's team: "you have 24 hours to state your defense".
Team Trump: "we'll just need 2"
Democrats had 36 hours of Opening statements

The Liberal Media is awfully quiet today.

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 1/21/2020 at 7:00 PM, Boat said:

We all love Tom but sometimes one has to take on his disinformation campaign. When Obama took office unemployment was at 4.7% which was historically good. Of course the big economic crash engineered by GW and the Republicans had just started. 
In 2 years unemployment had reached 10% before hitting bottom. In the ensuing 6 years the economy recovered along with unemployment which was back to 4.7% which as I mentioned before as historically good. 
What we were led to believe is that when the economy is good, that is the time to eliminate the deficit and work on debt. What happened is Trump took an economy that was recovered and humming along and threw a massive tax break at it. So sure unemployment is now doing great but at huge cost to the deficit and national debt. Long gone are the T-party folks who preached austerity for the Obama administration. Long gone is the third rail of being a Republican who claimed debt was a core priority. These same politicians who refused more money in the financial recovery now find no problem cutting taxes and spending to inflate a false bubble that is not sustainable. 

There are 3 major components to the creation of the great financial crisis. NONE of them were primarily political, no president and not congress made it happen. They only contributed a slight bit by repealing Glass Steagall and putting in the community reinvestment act, both of which are Clinton era changes. Everything else was outside the US or political hands, but was central bank policy.

1. The China -> commodity bubble. China used low exchange rates after its devaluation in 1995's bank recapitalization, to generate loss making export led economic growth where the only item of account was oil contract and physical oil reserve accumulation. 

2. Tight monetary policy in the US and EMU trying to fend off inflation generated by China's externalization of its enormous monetary expansion. Which resulted in overwhelming capital flows into the US. Those filled the demand for garbage mortgages, not the US banks.

3. Regulatory policy from the Fed and ECB and the Basel III accords that applied volatility based asset pricing models to regulation, particularly a fictional mark to market rule that tied all bank's balance sheets into one, making interbank trade impossible. There was no replacement for the regulatory function of commercial banks supplying credit to investment banks when the repeal of Glass Steagall made them competitors rather than clients. Thus funding shifted to wholesale money markets. The final nail in the coffin was Dodd Frank in the US and the imposition of a cap on FDIC insurance and the "bail in" of failed banks in EMU with the massive demonstration project of Cypress and Iceland where large depositors lost 30% of their account balances. Thus suspending deposit insurance. With devastating results for banks and the economy.  

China monetary policy resulted in enormous growth of money supply and reserves. Reserves created cash on Eurodollar banks' balance sheets, which they levered up by lending everywhere. US markets received their usual share. The reserves were also posted as collateral for forwards and futures on commodities, particularly oil. Thus creating the commodity bubble which destroyed business margins across the globe and thus pressed down corporate profits and real wages, as China produced exports without regard to profits. . 

China M3 + reserves in dollars vs. US M2 (US has no meaningful reserves)

Growth rates for both.

This was not a new invention. It was copied from Japan, S. Korea, Italy, Spain, Greece etc. who had monetary growth of 20-30% for decades during the 1970s commodities bubble (1965-1985). Volcker invented the incorrect response of tightening US monetary policy to evacuate US competitive demand in order to suppress price inflation. Which had mostly to do with OTHER countries' monetary inflation, NOT American inflation. The inflation broke because of oil projects coming online to compete with OPEC. Volcker delayed funding for them and made things worse. He gets the credit for creating the Rust Belt in America. The Bundesbank of the time was that much worse.  Bernanke, having written extensively about such errors, repeated them with an even tighter hand.

In the business margin sphere: You can see the evaporation of unit margins and then employment as the China commodity bubble crushed business globally.

 

With Chinese reserves levered up in the Eurodollar bank system along with the parallel petrodollars recirculating in it (the cash paid for reserves + the reserve assets posted for collateral for oil contracts + the petrodollars created as a result = 3X leverage, or $12 Trillion of additional assets in the Eurodollar system just from China policy alone over a decade's time). With higher than market rates in the US imposed by Bernanke doing precisely what he warned against, capital flows gushed in. Average flows were 10% of US GDP per year 2003-2007, peaking at 17% of US GDP SAAR for one quarter in the US.

Acting as if the Eurodollar market didn't exist, Bernanke kept raising rates well above market, and paid no attention to the shrinking of money supply growth and the resultant elimination of clearing cash (checkable accounts) from US holders, as they all were used by Eurodollar correspondent banks directly or through repos. The FREE clearing cash for the US banking system and economy shrank under Bernanke from <$700 billion to $188 B at the start of the Great Financial Crisis. As you can see in the chart Eurodollar banks sucked out the cash that the QE reserve injections provided. only a marginal portion stayed in US hands till 2014 when US banks started to expand and not lose all the cash to transfers to the Eurodollar system via payments for oil imports. 

In credit leverage to money supply, it was immensely irresponsible for Bernanke and Greenspan before him to respond to inflation caused by China with tightening of US rates. The foreign capital flows crowding out US banks for nearly 3 decades created a Debt/money supply ratio that was destined to collapse. The "Minsky Moment" came when the credit to cash ratio  hit 4.4. Higher than it was when Japan's bubble collapsed in 1989, which they are still trying to fix ever since. . 

 

So you can argue all you like about the political contribution of the various folks in office, but it wasn't them, but the professional Administrative Class, in the global central banking and regulatory structures that did it as an incorrect response to wild reckless monetary expansion in China, being exported as thin global manufacturing margins, high oil prices and enormous capital flows. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

The Liberal Media is awfully quiet today.

In Major Deal, The Babylon Bee Purchases Competing Satire Site CNN