Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Car-Sales-Plunge-92-On-Coronavirus-Fears.html

This article is the real potential problem for the U.S. if this virus starts to show up here. Terrorism isn't about the actual damage it causes. Terrorism is about the affects it has on the society upon which it is unleashed. For instance, 13 guys (or whatever) flew 3 planes into 3 buildings and the result is Trillions and Trillions of dollars in expense to the U.S. 

With this virus, the fear of the virus can cause devastating economic calamity in the U.S. if it gets any sort of grip in the states. This is why I keep pointing to the flu and comparing the two. The hype and fear around this virus can absolutely sink the U.S. economy. Not from people getting sick, but from people NOT participating in the economy. 

Can you imagine what would happen if there was a 92% reduction in ANY economic unit in the U.S. for ... let's say an entire Summer. So 92% of people stop buying cars for the Summer because they are scared they might get sick.  92% of people stop making home improvements. 92% of people stop shopping for a house. 92% of people don't go on vacation. 92% of companies stop sending their people anywhere on a plane. 

The flu kills 60,000 Americans but it has little to no impact on the economy. If a dozen people Americans die from this virus and a dozen major cities show an expansion of cases then it will crater the economy... not because people dying from a virus is a problem... people die from viruses every day... young people, old people, men, women... that's life.  But because of the panic caused by the media and the general Stupid nature in which people react to a new fear.  An old fear?  NO PROBLEM... they forget it even exists. 90 people will die in a car accident TODAY... 32,000 will die in car accidents this year. But people keep driving.  Not only that, they drive and eat and put on makeup and check the weather on their phone and don't even think about it. They aren't driving old cars.  They are driving the exact same car you drive on the exact same roads in the exact same way as you drive... but Nothing... not a blink... not a care. 

But if 12 people die from this virus and 12 major cities show increasing numbers of cases we will take a 1% GDP hit. I think it is unconscionable how the media is treating this. If 10x more Americans die from the Coronavirus than have died in China so far... Ten Times... let's say 25,000 Americans die.  We will have NO Economy... yet 2.5 times that many die from the flu every year and 1.5 times that many die in car accidents every year.

Here's the truly Ironic thing ... IF 10,000 Americans (4 x the number in China) die from the Coronavirus then it could reduce miles driven by Americans to the point that 10,000 lives will be SAVED from car accidents. The non-ironic thing is that the U.S. economy would crash, a million Americans would lose their homes and unemployment would go to 20%.... 

That's nothing to SNEEZE at. 

Edited February 24, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[wrs + 893]

So why is it that the market isn't expecting the production from the ME to be affected by COVID-19?  It's just a matter of time before it arrives in KSA as it's already in Oman, Iran and Iraq.  How will it be possible to maintain shipments with quarantines in place?

Does anyone not expect KSA to invoke even stronger quarantine measures than China?  It is a totalitarian society so will it succeed if it tries?  What an excuse to cut production as well.  Everyone has ample storage so why not?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 2/3/2020 at 7:59 PM, William Edwards said:

Until price and production coordination are implemented (currently 50 years waiting in the wings), each producer is a threat to oil markets and global economics. The coronovirus is simply one of the many trading triggers --  short term and meaningless. If you neither understand what I say nor do not accept its validity, that is OK. Don't sweat it. Just enjoy $30 oil.

So free market capitalism is not to be allowed to play out? 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 2/3/2020 at 8:52 PM, Marcin2 said:

This is infortunately the dark secret of this outbreak.

There are 2 scenarios:

- the recovered people numbers are so low ( not much higher than fatalities) because of some gross data inaccuracies, possibility but i do not think so,

- this virus is a very nasty and slow killer of human beings.

Just look at the detailed data about the fatalities that Chinese revelead to WHO.

It could take 20 or even 60 days for the virus to kill individual.

I also heard recently that it can recur in the same person. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

1 hour ago, wrs said:

So why is it that the market isn't expecting the production from the ME to be affected by COVID-19?  It's just a matter of time before it arrives in KSA as it's already in Oman, Iran and Iraq.  How will it be possible to maintain shipments with quarantines in place?

Does anyone not expect KSA to invoke even stronger quarantine measures than China?  It is a totalitarian society so will it succeed if it tries?  What an excuse to cut production as well.  Everyone has ample storage so why not?

Bahrain has put up restrictions, extending to anyone coming from SEA. And Bahrain is a vassal state to KSA.

Now a supertanker, they leave the crew on the water, they are a bit off shore for loading/unloading. The shipments impact I wouldn't worry about much. But the army of people who come to and fro for other reasons, that will have an impact. Harder to measure.

[BJblue + 12]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3051981/coronavirus-did-not-originate-wuhan-seafood-market-chinese

Well now, let's see here. If it didn't originate @ the Seafood Market and was imported from outside, as these scientists state, I just wonder where a "new" unique virus like this would(could) have been imported from? Surely they would not have anything like this up in that new P4 lab of theirs?

 

[Otis11 + 551]

21 hours ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Car-Sales-Plunge-92-On-Coronavirus-Fears.html

This article is the real potential problem for the U.S. if this virus starts to show up here. Terrorism isn't about the actual damage it causes. Terrorism is about the affects it has on the society upon which it is unleashed. For instance, 13 guys (or whatever) flew 3 planes into 3 buildings and the result is Trillions and Trillions of dollars in expense to the U.S. 

With this virus, the fear of the virus can cause devastating economic calamity in the U.S. if it gets any sort of grip in the states. This is why I keep pointing to the flu and comparing the two. The hype and fear around this virus can absolutely sink the U.S. economy. Not from people getting sick, but from people NOT participating in the economy. 

Can you imagine what would happen if there was a 92% reduction in ANY economic unit in the U.S. for ... let's say an entire Summer. So 92% of people stop buying cars for the Summer because they are scared they might get sick.  92% of people stop making home improvements. 92% of people stop shopping for a house. 92% of people don't go on vacation. 92% of companies stop sending their people anywhere on a plane. 

The flu kills 60,000 Americans but it has little to no impact on the economy. If a dozen people Americans die from this virus and a dozen major cities show an expansion of cases then it will crater the economy... not because people dying from a virus is a problem... people die from viruses every day... young people, old people, men, women... that's life.  But because of the panic caused by the media and the general Stupid nature in which people react to a new fear.  An old fear?  NO PROBLEM... they forget it even exists. 90 people will die in a car accident TODAY... 32,000 will die in car accidents this year. But people keep driving.  Not only that, they drive and eat and put on makeup and check the weather on their phone and don't even think about it. They aren't driving old cars.  They are driving the exact same car you drive on the exact same roads in the exact same way as you drive... but Nothing... not a blink... not a care. 

But if 12 people die from this virus and 12 major cities show increasing numbers of cases we will take a 1% GDP hit. I think it is unconscionable how the media is treating this. If 10x more Americans die from the Coronavirus than have died in China so far... Ten Times... let's say 25,000 Americans die.  We will have NO Economy... yet 2.5 times that many die from the flu every year and 1.5 times that many die in car accidents every year.

Here's the truly Ironic thing ... IF 10,000 Americans (4 x the number in China) die from the Coronavirus then it could reduce miles driven by Americans to the point that 10,000 lives will be SAVED from car accidents. The non-ironic thing is that the U.S. economy would crash, a million Americans would lose their homes and unemployment would go to 20%.... 

That's nothing to SNEEZE at. 

Well, 60k deaths is a record year (it's happened, but not often), more typically 20-30k...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

But see, I don't think it will stop there. I believe the numbers in China are being significantly under-reported and that the situation is dramatically worse than we're being led to believe. For those of us that are healthy non-smokers under 50 here in the US, I agree - despite my belief that the risk is higher than you seem to think - I think economic impacts are a higher risk to this group. Those over 50? Smokers? Have other health conditions? I think this bug justifies their reactions. (Oddly, the reactions I actually see are the opposite...)

Anyway - Appreciated your well thought out reply. Thanks for that!

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

This article has some very important information that I haven't read or heard anywhere else:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

Particularly what it says is that really experienced epidemiologists believe that Covid-19 will likely end up being widely distributed and even become a "normal" seasonal virus to go along with The Cold and Flu.

The reason for this is it's low mortality and it's ability to create a high percentage of non-symptomatic cases. The logic (again from experts) is that a highly morbid virus like SARS is much easier to contain.  This one has many asymptomatic cases and will have enough people who carry the virus but show no symptoms whatsoever that it will get through any screening process. 

The article states that 40-70% of the world's population WILL CATCH Covid-19. The expert thinks that there are probably already 200 cases in the U.S. that are undetected. 

My personal opinion - after thinking about likely outcomes - is that once it hits Mexico the U.S. will have no way to contain it. Mexico is mostly a failed state and we cannot close the border. It's too important for trade. And there is still a good amount of both legal and illegal crossings. I don't see how the US could keep it out once Mexico get it. We will probably get it before that from plenty of other sources, but this article says we aren't going to dodge it. 

40% of the U.S. is 146 million people. Even at the FLU's mortality rate of 0.1% that's 146,000 deaths. Let's say he's off by a factor of 100.  That's 1,460,000 cases.  At the low end mortality rate of 1% for Covid-19, that's one out of 100 (1,460 dead). What does Dallas do if they have 4%-40% infection rate 240,000 - 2.4 million with a 1% mortality rate of 240 - 2,400 people.  Who will send their kid to school?

At the beginning of this thread I didn't think Cornonavirus would be a big economic impactor.  Now I'm 180 degrees the other way. 

[Otis11 + 551]

14 hours ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

This article has some very important information that I haven't read or heard anywhere else:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

Particularly what it says is that really experienced epidemiologists believe that Covid-19 will likely end up being widely distributed and even become a "normal" seasonal virus to go along with The Cold and Flu.

The reason for this is it's low mortality and it's ability to create a high percentage of non-symptomatic cases. The logic (again from experts) is that a highly morbid virus like SARS is much easier to contain.  This one has many asymptomatic cases and will have enough people who carry the virus but show no symptoms whatsoever that it will get through any screening process. 

The article states that 40-70% of the world's population WILL CATCH Covid-19. The expert thinks that there are probably already 200 cases in the U.S. that are undetected. 

My personal opinion - after thinking about likely outcomes - is that once it hits Mexico the U.S. will have no way to contain it. Mexico is mostly a failed state and we cannot close the border. It's too important for trade. And there is still a good amount of both legal and illegal crossings. I don't see how the US could keep it out once Mexico get it. We will probably get it before that from plenty of other sources, but this article says we aren't going to dodge it. 

40% of the U.S. is 146 million people. Even at the FLU's mortality rate of 0.1% that's 146,000 deaths. Let's say he's off by a factor of 100.  That's 1,460,000 cases.  At the low end mortality rate of 1% for Covid-19, that's one out of 100 (1,460 dead). What does Dallas do if they have 4%-40% infection rate 240,000 - 2.4 million with a 1% mortality rate of 240 - 2,400 people.  Who will send their kid to school?

At the beginning of this thread I didn't think Cornonavirus would be a big economic impactor.  Now I'm 180 degrees the other way. 

Now you've come to my line of thinking...

Flu is normally 0.05% mortality, give or take. 0.1% in a particularly bad year... and only hits roughly 10% of the US population in any given year as it's not terribly contagious.

If you bump that to 1-2% (most reasonable estimates I've seen - some are significantly higher, but this seems reasonable and illustrates the point), and say that this is significantly more contagious than the flu, so 40% of the population will get it (again, lower estimate), we're looking at 0.4-0.8% of the population not surviving this. Indications are that these are mostly those over 50, smokers, and those with underlying health issues, but that's still an awful lot of people. We're talking 1.5 Million people in the US alone. Just this year. (Now keep in mind, if it does become endemic odds are this will likely shrink as immune systems build immunity against similar 'old' strains)

So what impact will that have? Well, first, it causes people to panic - seeing parents/grandparents dying en mass is not great for peoples psyche. Discontent with governments and centralized institutions (even employers) in general is likely to grow substantially (depending on spin - I anticipate governments using this to justify why we need 1 world government, but don't expect the people to buy that... only time will tell). 

This is unlikely to have much effect on the majority of working age population, nor the young based on what I've seen, so the vast majority of the economic impact will be limited to people panicking, but I see that having a significant impact on the market - especially long lead items, complex supply chains, and retail/entertainment/travel. Those markets are going to hurt. Consumer products and durable goods will bounce back quickly if people keep their jobs - if this sparks a main street recession, this may not be as accurate. 

(And as dark as it is to think, this may actually help save Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid from a budget standpoint... and a social support standpoint. Fewer people to support, and the most expensive - aka sickest - patients are removed from the pool.)

All that said, I think real impact to economy could be as low as 3-5% based on actual loss of life, however due to panic and just general uncertainty, I think the market's going to dip significantly (been saying 20-40% from highs 2 weeks ago), though if limited to this, it should be a V and have a quick recovery. If this spills over from Wallstreet to Main street and people start loosing jobs, houses, cars, etc - we're looking at a bigger impact on both economical and social standpoint, with 30%-60% drop and a much longer, slower recovery.

 

And keep in mind this is all with small numbers! If those numbers are closer to 3-4% fatality rate (especially as hospitals get over-run, possibly even getting up to 8% in certain areas), and 60% of people are infected, we're potentially looking at 6 Million people in the US alone. (I assume this extrapolates to Europe. South America and Africa I don't have as good of a sense of culture, average health and infrastructure to be able to extrapolate - aka WAG - like this. May not be terribly different, might have factors that make it less severe. Potentially worse, but I don't expect that - but maybe I'm naiive)

Regardless, I think this is bad... but honestly the best thing anyone can do is prepare (stock up on dry/canned goods, fluids, medications, etc - in case of supply disruptions), and not panic. If you're in the market, just hold on, the recovery will come. Trying to get out now is risky.

If you're over 50 (especially over 60 or 70), have a significant health condition (especially respiratory or cardio vascular), or a heavy smoker (or have some other reason your lungs are impacted) - while you are statistically likely to be fine, the odds are high enough to warrant additional precautions and potentially getting your affairs in order (aka, go make a will). I wish you and your family the best, I know I have family and friends in these categories, but be aware of the risks and make decisions accordingly.

And remember, this hasn't currently shown a trend of hitting kids to terribly hard. They're likely massive spreaders, but will make it through just fine. At least take comfort in that.

 

So that's my whole current outlook, not that anybody asked...
(I sincerely hope I'm wrong...)

[0R0 + 6,251]

The US is not going to respond like China with massive shutdowns.

First of all, far more Americans can work from home since they just don't really need to be in the office physically in order to do their work. It is largely a management urban legend that people at home will be playing computer games rather than work. Not really how it is. So being forced to stay at home will finally put a final nail in that coffin of physical office work.

Second, Americans don't use crowded public transport as much. Most of those that do use public transport can drive a car instead. 

Restaurants can survive just fine on delivery business. Only wait staff will be affected if they can't perform deliveries. 

In physical work in manufacturing and construction, little is crowded. Only restaurant and commissary kitchens are close quarters work. Keeping non line workers at home reduces the count on the shop floor. But there is no reason to shut down. 

School closings are likely where infections show up. Events will surely be cancelled, as would sit down restaurant dining areas and other entertainment venues. 

Mass quarantines are just not necessary in the US. 

Delivery services can substantially solve most retail issues, but not all, and not without a significant dent in the economy. 

I don't know to expect losses in people's travel vs. increased deliveries volumes affecting oil demand to fall substantially, or bad but not "that bad".

The still very unknown impact of great scale in the US is how much damage the supply chain will bring in from China. Today's CNBC CFO survey shows 100% expected some effect on their business. 24% are concerned about obtaining China parts and materials as well as final goods. 38% are concerned with China demand for their products, direct or indirect. 

 

 

If you are being spooked by the Stock "crash" then consider that the marginal news headlines were Bernie Sanders running at the top of the Dem ticket, as much as it is the first confirmed case of community infection. The slide started with the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Italy Korea and Iran. At the same time Sanders was winning at the primaries. It isn't obvious that it is predominantly a problem of covid-19 itself.

Technicals on the sp5oos indicate a short term bump after a wash out tomorrow. So there is a potential short term bottom to trade at/near Fri close or Monday morning, if the spill on Fri doesn't rebound just before the close. Valuations were elevated, so there is potential for more damage. Note the rebound on the Shanghai from its initial plunge on Feb opening trade. I am sure it is a function of the lower official numbers of new infections and monetary policy stimulus which as usual allows greater margin leverage and low margin rates. 

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

7 hours ago, Otis11 said:

Now you've come to my line of thinking...

Flu is normally 0.05% mortality, give or take. 0.1% in a particularly bad year... and only hits roughly 10% of the US population in any given year as it's not terribly contagious.

If you bump that to 1-2% (most reasonable estimates I've seen - some are significantly higher, but this seems reasonable and illustrates the point), and say that this is significantly more contagious than the flu, so 40% of the population will get it (again, lower estimate), we're looking at 0.4-0.8% of the population not surviving this. Indications are that these are mostly those over 50, smokers, and those with underlying health issues, but that's still an awful lot of people. We're talking 1.5 Million people in the US alone. Just this year. (Now keep in mind, if it does become endemic odds are this will likely shrink as immune systems build immunity against similar 'old' strains)

So what impact will that have? Well, first, it causes people to panic - seeing parents/grandparents dying en mass is not great for peoples psyche. Discontent with governments and centralized institutions (even employers) in general is likely to grow substantially (depending on spin - I anticipate governments using this to justify why we need 1 world government, but don't expect the people to buy that... only time will tell). 

This is unlikely to have much effect on the majority of working age population, nor the young based on what I've seen, so the vast majority of the economic impact will be limited to people panicking, but I see that having a significant impact on the market - especially long lead items, complex supply chains, and retail/entertainment/travel. Those markets are going to hurt. Consumer products and durable goods will bounce back quickly if people keep their jobs - if this sparks a main street recession, this may not be as accurate. 

(And as dark as it is to think, this may actually help save Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid from a budget standpoint... and a social support standpoint. Fewer people to support, and the most expensive - aka sickest - patients are removed from the pool.)

All that said, I think real impact to economy could be as low as 3-5% based on actual loss of life, however due to panic and just general uncertainty, I think the market's going to dip significantly (been saying 20-40% from highs 2 weeks ago), though if limited to this, it should be a V and have a quick recovery. If this spills over from Wallstreet to Main street and people start loosing jobs, houses, cars, etc - we're looking at a bigger impact on both economical and social standpoint, with 30%-60% drop and a much longer, slower recovery.

 

And keep in mind this is all with small numbers! If those numbers are closer to 3-4% fatality rate (especially as hospitals get over-run, possibly even getting up to 8% in certain areas), and 60% of people are infected, we're potentially looking at 6 Million people in the US alone. (I assume this extrapolates to Europe. South America and Africa I don't have as good of a sense of culture, average health and infrastructure to be able to extrapolate - aka WAG - like this. May not be terribly different, might have factors that make it less severe. Potentially worse, but I don't expect that - but maybe I'm naiive)

Regardless, I think this is bad... but honestly the best thing anyone can do is prepare (stock up on dry/canned goods, fluids, medications, etc - in case of supply disruptions), and not panic. If you're in the market, just hold on, the recovery will come. Trying to get out now is risky.

If you're over 50 (especially over 60 or 70), have a significant health condition (especially respiratory or cardio vascular), or a heavy smoker (or have some other reason your lungs are impacted) - while you are statistically likely to be fine, the odds are high enough to warrant additional precautions and potentially getting your affairs in order (aka, go make a will). I wish you and your family the best, I know I have family and friends in these categories, but be aware of the risks and make decisions accordingly.

And remember, this hasn't currently shown a trend of hitting kids to terribly hard. They're likely massive spreaders, but will make it through just fine. At least take comfort in that.

 

So that's my whole current outlook, not that anybody asked...
(I sincerely hope I'm wrong...)

Let's keep agreeing. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

30-40 million cases of the flu in the coming year.  Covid-19 has already been determined to be more virulent. So it will be More than the flu.  Will it be twice as many? 4x as many?  Let's assume 30% infection rate (which is below estimates but higher than flu). 70% don't require hospitalization. Why? Because there is nothing they can do for you except quarantine you.  There is NO treatment protocol unless you have respiratory distress. Of the cases that require hospitalization about 30% get oxygen by mask. 30% require mechanical respiration and 12% need "tracheal respiration" or something like that (basically they die)   That's the 2% mortality. The average age of contraction is 51. Males are slightly more susceptible.  Kids seem to skip it. 

As you said, pre-existing conditions (diabetes, COPD, lung issues, lifetime smokers) are more likely to die. And old people. 

Right now Americans really don't think it's going to be a real thing. But it will be. The only reason our cases are so low is because no one is being tested unless they were in China and show symptoms.  This stuff is very catchable and has no symptoms at first. So, yes, it's OUT int he wild. 

The hardest thing is going to be isolating the infected who do not need hospitalization.  It'll keep spreading. Then it will die down in the summer (after just a few thousand cases) and we will think we're out of the woods. Then in the Fall it's going to come back with a vengeance

Japan shut their schools down over just 200 cases. There's no way this bubble wrapped generation is going to send their kids to school. People will go to work because everyone has a mortgage, rent, car payments and bills.  My guess is that restaurants (Starbucks, Fast food) will close their dining rooms and go to to drive thru only.  

I bought stocks at the end of the day today. They will go down more, but it's time to start buying back in.  In 2 years this will be seen as the best buying opportunity since 2008. It will be endemic by then and we will mostly ignore it and talk about the kitty that fell down a well or whatever celebrity got hit by a car. 

We will all catch it!  Or enough of us that it will be common.  Some of us will die. But people have to keep paying their bills.  It will be a W shaped recession Down Spring, Up summer, Down Fall, Up when we just get tired of worrying about it and the "vaccine" comes out. 

We are the few who are actually deeply thinking about this.  Everyone else just thinks it's a News Story and they have no idea what is going to happen.  They are going to freak the fuck out when it actually hits their town. Hand sanitizer, cough suppressant and disinfectant... plus pain reliever.  That's really all you need.  That and information. Hand sanitize to try to not get it.  Cough suppressant and pain reliever when you do, and disinfectant to try to keep the rest of the family from catching it. 

There will be HUGE political recriminations, claims and counter claims... legislative investigations... and all that bullshit.  They will conclude that the party in power did everything wrong and it would have been better if the other party had done it. Same shit different day. 

IF you don't have the money to keep paying your bills with a 30-60 day disruption in your income then you're screwed if you get it!  You're screwed if a family member gets it.  Because there will be forced in-home quarantines. They will bring you food, or you an order from Walmart or whatever.  There won't be food shortages.  But, if you can't go 30-60 days without going to work it won't matter. There may be federal relief if you can keep from being evicted until then. 

The flood gates will open from the federal standpoint.  At least a trillion if not two will pour into the economy like a waterfall. The economic boost will be extreme for those of us who live through it.  And yes, no one will say it - and if they do they will get kicked off TV - but if you take a 40% infection rate for those over 65 and a 15% mortality rate then 48 million people x 40% x 15% = almost 3 million people off Social Security and Medicare. That's a big move... do that (with slightly lower numbers) 3 years in a row and you've just cut senior entitlements by 20%.

If this disease takes a lot of "chronic" and medically expensive people out then it will make a substantial impact on future budgets. Also, when 50% of Europe was taken out by the Plague it created the Renaissance.Killing off lots of old people makes tons of space for new people, new ideas, new opportunities. "But death is bad." We all die. Some of us just take a long time and cost a ton in medical expense before we do it. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

17 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The US is not going to respond like China with massive shutdowns.

First of all, far more Americans can work from home since they just don't really need to be in the office physically in order to do their work. It is largely a management urban legend that people at home will be playing computer games rather than work. Not really how it is. So being forced to stay at home will finally put a final nail in that coffin of physical office work.

Second, Americans don't use crowded public transport as much. Most of those that do use public transport can drive a car instead. 

Restaurants can survive just fine on delivery business. Only wait staff will be affected if they can't perform deliveries. 

In physical work in manufacturing and construction, little is crowded. Only restaurant and commissary kitchens are close quarters work. Keeping non line workers at home reduces the count on the shop floor. But there is no reason to shut down. 

School closings are likely where infections show up. Events will surely be cancelled, as would sit down restaurant dining areas and other entertainment venues. 

Mass quarantines are just not necessary in the US. 

Delivery services can substantially solve most retail issues, but not all, and not without a significant dent in the economy. 

I don't know to expect losses in people's travel vs. increased deliveries volumes affecting oil demand to fall substantially, or bad but not "that bad".

The still very unknown impact of great scale in the US is how much damage the supply chain will bring in from China. Today's CNBC CFO survey shows 100% expected some effect on their business. 24% are concerned about obtaining China parts and materials as well as final goods. 38% are concerned with China demand for their products, direct or indirect. 

 

 

If you are being spooked by the Stock "crash" then consider that the marginal news headlines were Bernie Sanders running at the top of the Dem ticket, as much as it is the first confirmed case of community infection. The slide started with the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Italy Korea and Iran. At the same time Sanders was winning at the primaries. It isn't obvious that it is predominantly a problem of covid-19 itself.

Technicals on the sp5oos indicate a short term bump after a wash out tomorrow. So there is a potential short term bottom to trade at/near Fri close or Monday morning, if the spill on Fri doesn't rebound just before the close. Valuations were elevated, so there is potential for more damage. Note the rebound on the Shanghai from its initial plunge on Feb opening trade. I am sure it is a function of the lower official numbers of new infections and monetary policy stimulus which as usual allows greater margin leverage and low margin rates. 

This is what everyone is pretending is going to happen. You live in a white collar world.  When you stay home there's a 15% chance that your company realize that you don't actually do anything most of the day and just lays you off. Most white collar workers don't do much. 

You're going to catch this from you adult children who come over to see "if you're OK." They will be non-symptomatic carriers. You're going to catch this from family and friends... Particularly YOU are going to catch it because you don't understand it. 

The economy will do what it does.  The government will do what it does.  But people are going to panic when this hits their town. That's guaranteed.  If you don't think schools will shut down you're crazy. 30% of people won't send their kids to school. 30% of the teachers will be sick. There's no way this doesn't cause major disruptions to social structures. You just don't believe it can because you don't believe we're "gonna get it." We already have it. We just don't know it because we aren't testing for it. 

The Summer might give us a reprieve.  We'll see. But, no... you are completely wrong, completely uninformed, and in complete denial.  Go read the CDC website section for medical professionals and you will get a picture of what is really going to happen. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^

Would you just stop it already! Nobody knows what this sucker is going to do. Nobody!

We know what it does in China, and S. Korea, but we have no earthly idea what it's going to do over here. 

Spring is almost here. I'm with Trump: when warm weather and sunshine hit, there goes the virus. Sure it comes back in the fall, but we'll have a vaccine soon enough. Maybe even a treatment. For Pete's sake, son, this is America, we're not going to be kowtowed by some little pissant virus. 

I only have one functioning lung and I'm definitely in your death category, but you know what? I'll muddle through. I'll survive because I still get a kick out of life and I want to see the look on the solar and wind boy's faces when they find out the Chinese haven't manufactured their panels and windmill blades. And oh yeah their batteries too. 

For years I worked on a double-stranded Reovirus. I read all these reports about Africans dying of a tumor called Burkitt's lymphoma. I couldn't figure out why my lab partner and I didn't get anything like that (only the GI back door trots). Until I got a call from Dr. Burkitt. He informed me that only people between a certain longitude and latitude got the tumor. Then he asked me to come work with him. He was working in the tumor zone. I said no thank you, I'm happy where I am. So I'm in the coward category too.

This virus hits badly damaged lungs! Period! I've looked at a million microscope slides of smokers and those who worked in high industrial pollution areas (think China and S. Korea). The alveolar cells are damaged and leak protoplasm and contain carbon micro-particles. In America, most of our over-70 crowd don't smoke and never did, so they're mostly going to feel like hell for about a week and then get well and never eat Chinese food again in their lives. I plan on being in that category.

If I suddenly go radio-silent, you'll know that it was a bit worse than I expected. (Or I might just do it to trick you, make you feel bad that you scared the piss out of me.) 

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

48 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The US is not going to respond like China with massive shutdowns.

First of all, far more Americans can work from home since they just don't really need to be in the office physically in order to do their work. It is largely a management urban legend that people at home will be playing computer games rather than work. Not really how it is. So being forced to stay at home will finally put a final nail in that coffin of physical office work.

Second, Americans don't use crowded public transport as much. Most of those that do use public transport can drive a car instead. 

Restaurants can survive just fine on delivery business. Only wait staff will be affected if they can't perform deliveries. 

In physical work in manufacturing and construction, little is crowded. Only restaurant and commissary kitchens are close quarters work. Keeping non line workers at home reduces the count on the shop floor. But there is no reason to shut down. 

School closings are likely where infections show up. Events will surely be cancelled, as would sit down restaurant dining areas and other entertainment venues. 

Mass quarantines are just not necessary in the US. 

Delivery services can substantially solve most retail issues, but not all, and not without a significant dent in the economy. 

I don't know to expect losses in people's travel vs. increased deliveries volumes affecting oil demand to fall substantially, or bad but not "that bad".

The still very unknown impact of great scale in the US is how much damage the supply chain will bring in from China. Today's CNBC CFO survey shows 100% expected some effect on their business. 24% are concerned about obtaining China parts and materials as well as final goods. 38% are concerned with China demand for their products, direct or indirect. 

 

 

If you are being spooked by the Stock "crash" then consider that the marginal news headlines were Bernie Sanders running at the top of the Dem ticket, as much as it is the first confirmed case of community infection. The slide started with the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Italy Korea and Iran. At the same time Sanders was winning at the primaries. It isn't obvious that it is predominantly a problem of covid-19 itself.

Technicals on the sp5oos indicate a short term bump after a wash out tomorrow. So there is a potential short term bottom to trade at/near Fri close or Monday morning, if the spill on Fri doesn't rebound just before the close. Valuations were elevated, so there is potential for more damage. Note the rebound on the Shanghai from its initial plunge on Feb opening trade. I am sure it is a function of the lower official numbers of new infections and monetary policy stimulus which as usual allows greater margin leverage and low margin rates. 

This is what everyone is pretending is going to happen. You live in a white collar world.  When you stay home there's a 15% chance that your company realize that you don't actually do anything most of the day and just lays you off. Most white collar workers don't do much. 

You're going to catch this from you adult children who come over to see "if you're OK." They will be non-symptomatic carriers. You're going to catch this from family and friends... Particularly YOU are going to catch it because you don't understand it. 

The economy will do what it does.  The government will do what it does.  But people are going to panic when this hits their town. That's guaranteed.  If you don't think schools will shut down you're crazy. 30% of people won't send their kids to school. 30% of the teachers will be sick. There's no way this doesn't cause major disruptions to social structures. You just don't believe it can because you don't believe we're "gonna get it." We already have it. We just don't know it because we aren't testing for it. 

The Summer might give us a reprieve.  We'll see. But, no... you are completely wrong, completely uninformed, and in complete denial.  Go read the CDC website section for medical professionals and you will get a picture of what is really going to happen. 

 

P.S. Trump is a Genius for putting Pence in charge... Whatever goes wrong will be Pence's fault, whatever goes right will be Trump's Accomplishment. 

 

[Hotone + 412]

On 2/25/2020 at 10:50 AM, BJblue said:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3051981/coronavirus-did-not-originate-wuhan-seafood-market-chinese

Well now, let's see here. If it didn't originate @ the Seafood Market and was imported from outside, as these scientists state, I just wonder where a "new" unique virus like this would(could) have been imported from? Surely they would not have anything like this up in that new P4 lab of theirs?

 

Disclaimer: I am not saying that this is true, but a claim has been going around that there is a 99% chance of this virus being manmade in one of United States’ many bioweapon laboratories around the world.

There is youtube video about this.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Hotone
Grammar

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Just now, Hotone said:

Disclaimer: I am not saying that this is true, but it had been going around that there is a 99% chance of this virus being manmade in one of United States’ many bioweapon laboratories around the world.

Well, that right there is just utter horse-shit, my friend, and you can take that to your local communist bank.

[Hotone + 412]

35 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, that right there is just utter horse-shit, my friend, and you can take that to your local communist bank.

I am not Communist and I am not claiming it to be true.  It had landed on a few of the chat groups that I am on.  People will believe strongly in what suits them in this post truth world, so I think it's worth being aware of  alternative convictions.

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Hotone

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

This is what everyone is pretending is going to happen. You live in a white collar world.  When you stay home there's a 15% chance that your company realize that you don't actually do anything most of the day and just lays you off. Most white collar workers don't do much. 

You're going to catch this from you adult children who come over to see "if you're OK." They will be non-symptomatic carriers. You're going to catch this from family and friends... Particularly YOU are going to catch it because you don't understand it. 

The economy will do what it does.  The government will do what it does.  But people are going to panic when this hits their town. That's guaranteed.  If you don't think schools will shut down you're crazy. 30% of people won't send their kids to school. 30% of the teachers will be sick. There's no way this doesn't cause major disruptions to social structures. You just don't believe it can because you don't believe we're "gonna get it." We already have it. We just don't know it because we aren't testing for it. 

The Summer might give us a reprieve.  We'll see. But, no... you are completely wrong, completely uninformed, and in complete denial.  Go read the CDC website section for medical professionals and you will get a picture of what is really going to happen. 

 

P.S. Trump is a Genius for putting Pence in charge... Whatever goes wrong will be Pence's fault, whatever goes right will be Trump's Accomplishment. 

 

I agree that it has spread already and quite thoroughly, particularly in LA SF Valley and SD CA, Seattle and NY. I posted some days back that the CDC is "not looking". Since they are not testing by symptoms but by exposure history, meaning that they can't identify community spread. So the one case of community transfer was caught because the doctors went against CDC guidelines and tested a patient with no known exposure history. 

The CDC is showing every sign of being a brain dead bureaucracy at the top. Playing with control instead of open discussion and broad distribution of test reagents to the plethora of testing labs. If Singapore could do it, why can't they? I guess because the competent people stay in the labs and the hacks go to management. 

Outside of the big cities, where a large chunk of the workers can work from home to reduce density at work, bit where most people use public transportation, Most Americans live in suburbia and most of them work there too. Meaning that they don't use public transportation because they have to, don't go through apartment building stairs and elevators, and the many white collar workers who can work at home. And with deliveries they can minimize contact with others.  US average per capita housing is 65 sqm. You don't have to come in contact with your family members if you don't want to. Keep the kids at home while the contagion rampages, use disinfectant on bathroom surfaces before and after use, and you will reduce your chances of infection by orders of magnitude compared to dense Chinese Japanese and Korean cities where disease expansion was rampant. I don't know what the areas in Italy and Iran where infection has popped up in a big way are like as far as density and types of work. 

There is active discussion of stay at home strategies for businesses' employees, and for schooling, and retail and foodservice are gearing up to close dining rooms and perk up deliveries, which are likely to be the major portion of street traffic for a month or two. Deliveries should pay well for a while because of the elevated exposure risk of being the common contact transfer between work and residences.  

[Marcin2 + 724]

4 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, that right there is just utter horse-shit, my friend, and you can take that to your local communist bank.

Do not blame Hotone, the idea is stupid, but becomes one of Urban legends. Nobody creates bioweapon with such characteristics.

[NickW + 2,714]

11 hours ago, 0R0 said:

The US is not going to respond like China with massive shutdowns.

First of all, far more Americans can work from home since they just don't really need to be in the office physically in order to do their work. It is largely a management urban legend that people at home will be playing computer games rather than work. Not really how it is. So being forced to stay at home will finally put a final nail in that coffin of physical office work.

Second, Americans don't use crowded public transport as much. Most of those that do use public transport can drive a car instead. 

Restaurants can survive just fine on delivery business. Only wait staff will be affected if they can't perform deliveries. 

In physical work in manufacturing and construction, little is crowded. Only restaurant and commissary kitchens are close quarters work. Keeping non line workers at home reduces the count on the shop floor. But there is no reason to shut down. 

School closings are likely where infections show up. Events will surely be cancelled, as would sit down restaurant dining areas and other entertainment venues. 

Mass quarantines are just not necessary in the US. 

Delivery services can substantially solve most retail issues, but not all, and not without a significant dent in the economy. 

I don't know to expect losses in people's travel vs. increased deliveries volumes affecting oil demand to fall substantially, or bad but not "that bad".

The still very unknown impact of great scale in the US is how much damage the supply chain will bring in from China. Today's CNBC CFO survey shows 100% expected some effect on their business. 24% are concerned about obtaining China parts and materials as well as final goods. 38% are concerned with China demand for their products, direct or indirect. 

 

 

If you are being spooked by the Stock "crash" then consider that the marginal news headlines were Bernie Sanders running at the top of the Dem ticket, as much as it is the first confirmed case of community infection. The slide started with the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Italy Korea and Iran. At the same time Sanders was winning at the primaries. It isn't obvious that it is predominantly a problem of covid-19 itself.

Technicals on the sp5oos indicate a short term bump after a wash out tomorrow. So there is a potential short term bottom to trade at/near Fri close or Monday morning, if the spill on Fri doesn't rebound just before the close. Valuations were elevated, so there is potential for more damage. Note the rebound on the Shanghai from its initial plunge on Feb opening trade. I am sure it is a function of the lower official numbers of new infections and monetary policy stimulus which as usual allows greater margin leverage and low margin rates. 

yeah right....

 

[wrs + 893]

On 2/24/2020 at 2:29 PM, ronwagn said:

So free market capitalism is not to be allowed to play out? 

It's not the best price setting mechanism for producers.

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

10 hours ago, Hotone said:

Disclaimer: I am not saying that this is true, but a claim has been going around that there is a 99% chance of this virus being manmade in one of United States’ many bioweapon laboratories around the world.

There is youtube video about this.

Wait... what?  There's a YOUTUBE vido?!? I didn't know there was a YOUTUBE video!  WOW!!! A real one? Unbelievable. Then the truth is out!  They've cracked the code.  Someone figured out how to make a YOUTUBE video! Have other people clicked on it?  I mean if someone went through all the trouble to make a youtube video AND other people have clicked on it... Then there's no argument against that. Rock Solid!!  It's a Chinese suicide weapon!  You see China decided there were too many people and their economy was doing too good.  They realized that the one thing they were missing was a complete shutdown on shipments and they had too many people going to work at their factories. So they magically developed a super virus (which no one has ever done) in their secret bunker lab with their Fu Manchu mustaches. Those dirty Commies! Let's nuke em!

Disclaimer... I'm not saying you're an idiot.  I'm just saying that anyone who would post this video is an idiot. Anyone who would believe this video is an idiot.  The only one who isn't is the guy getting revenue off the video.  He's a genius... probably a dirty Chinese communist posing as an American idiot.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[GunnysGhost + 157]

3 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Wait... what?  There's a YOUTUBE vido?!? I didn't know there was a YOUTUBE video!  WOW!!! A real one? Unbelievable. Then the truth is out!  They've cracked the code.  Someone figured out how to make a YOUTUBE video! Have other people clicked on it?  I mean if someone went through all the trouble to make a youtube video AND other people have clicked on it... Then there's no argument against that. Rock Solid!!  It's a Chinese suicide weapon!  You see China decided there were too many people and their economy was doing too good.  They realized that the one thing they were missing was a complete shutdown on shipments and they had too many people going to work at their factories. So they magically developed a super virus (which no one has ever done) in their secret bunker lab with their Fu Manchu mustaches. Those dirty Commies! Let's nuke em!

Disclaimer... I'm not saying you're an idiot.  I'm just saying that anyone who would post this video is an idiot. Anyone who would believe this video is an idiot.  The only one who isn't is the guy getting revenue off the video.  He's a genius... probably a dirty Chinese communist posing as an American idiot.

😂😂

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

I'm a dog trainer.  I'm not in finance.  I'm not in medicine. I'm a dog trainer in East Texas. I got my first Cornoavirus related cancellation this morning. It was a dog I was supposed to pick up on March 5th.  Previous Client.  Here's her response to my text:

"Hey Tony! You have impeccable timing. I just got an email this morning letting me know that all of our company travel is grounded due to Coronavirus, so I am staying in town now.  Thank you for Following Up!"

   this was followed by

"We are making a call on whether to cancel our own annual conference today as well - will keep you updated!"

This is not speculation. It's not guessing.  This is hard reality.  It was $550. A 25% hit for this week. Most bookings are $1,200. Business and vacation travel are a big part of Board and Train dog training.  It will be an impact on my real economy. Will I pick up other dogs due to people being quarantined in their homes and they want the dog out of the way?  No way to know. 

I'll be fine. I have no debt, no mortgage, no car payments, no credit cards, solar supplemented electricity, no HOA fees, 10 acres, the milk I drank this morning came from milking my goats last night. I have months worth of food on hand. I have medicine, masks, santitizers, etc. etc.  But, I'm an extreme exception.  Most people can't go long with a reduced income. They can go as long as their Visa and Discover cards hold out. 

***

This is medicinal and social management's 9/11. 9/11 happened and everyone said "why weren't we prepared" we had the previous WTC bombing, the attack on the Cole, etc. etc. etc.   And yet we had Zero warning, and basically no response. We made it up as we went.  This will happen with Covid-19. We had ebola, we had SARS, we had MERS... and yet we have Zero actual response.  Larry Kudlow (who was thrown into the White House briefing room this morning with ZERO notification of the media... he literally just walked in and started talking to the backup crews that were sitting there). He said they are taking this "day to day." He said they are "monitoring EVERYTHING" Really?  That's impossible. That's an impossible statement.  What does that mean? Monitoring everything?  How does that help?

This was completely unexpected, completely unplanned for, and completely par for the course for the Federal, State and local governments. Prepare for nothing, plan to plan after the disaster happens. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

The attached chart shows the death percentage rates for the Spanish Flu in 1918. First it had a 28% infection rate - similar to Covid-19. It had a 1%-1.5% death rate in the Spring FEB - April... Then only 0.5% in for a while in the Summer ("Hey look the cure is working, we're out of the woods.")  Then a 2%-2.5% death rate in September - December. 

(technically June was the first occurance, then the big spike then the rebound 1-1.5% spike, then it disappeared)

Just like this one it traveled worldwide in just a month (without air travel). And although claims can be made about how it was affected by WWI or crowding... it was indiscriminate in killing from Alaska to Brazil and around the globe (except amazingly enough in China, where some think it originated and where they may have had partial natural immunity). But that's just speculation. 

This flu is more likely to be historic than not. 28% infection rate in the U.S. is 102 million. There is no "quarantine" facility for that.  People will be told to quarantine inside their house. Plus 15% of these cases (at least) will be asymptomatic so they will just be free walking carriers. There will be no containment. This leads to 36 million hospitalizations mostly in October - January.  That's about 9 million per month on top of seasonal flu. And 3-5 million deaths. 

"That can't happen here!" Why not? "Because we have the best healthcare in the world." A. That's not true, we have crappy healthcare. and B. There are almost no treatments for viruses and there is NO treatment for this virus. Cortosteroids actually make death happen faster. It's just math.

The same math is true of seasonal flu.  It's just less virulent and less deadly (and even WITH a "proven" vaccine tens of thousands of Americans die every year). This is  no different.  It's a math exercise in Virus vs Humans. This virus is better at spreading and better at causing respiratory failure (just like the 1918 virus). 

This is not a media exercise.  It is not a reality TV show. It's not a THEM problem (like us blowing people up or genocide). This is a NO SHIT (enter the name of the street that you live on) This Year problem. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly