Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies

[BJblue + 12]

I saw this today just scrolling on FB, and had to post it. I have already seen and heard this on this forum. I am still waiting on hearing CCPs side of this. But the HIV...they started "treating patients" with a current HIV MED soon after it broke out over there. Am am still wondering if they did not already know the exact profile of this virus, before it broke out?

 

 https://news4achange.com/scientists-discover-hiv-like-mutation-which-makes-coronavirus-extremely-infectious/?fbclid=IwAR1P_Ak3TWu4pxi1E6r1jFqx7syRBmJPaZ_8QV80Q7dz0wAM0eBvxNJw3rU

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

10 minutes ago, J.mo said:

Isnt that basically the message the US is relaying? Unless symptoms are severe stay home and self quarantine. Same thing china fed their people. 

Meanwhile In Washington state, 6 deaths have now occurred out of 18 cases. Which is not the 2% the world claims..

Rational answer : The real number of cases is probably higher but they have not been identified.

Conspirationist answer : It's because the virus is a bioweapon specially created by the Chinese/Russians/Reptilians (choose your favorite enemy) to kill Americans, so the fatality is higher with US citizens.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

37 minutes ago, BJblue said:

I saw this today just scrolling on FB, and had to post it. I have already seen and heard this on this forum. I am still waiting on hearing CCPs side of this. But the HIV...they started "treating patients" with a current HIV MED soon after it broke out over there. Am am still wondering if they did not already know the exact profile of this virus, before it broke out?

 

 https://news4achange.com/scientists-discover-hiv-like-mutation-which-makes-coronavirus-extremely-infectious/?fbclid=IwAR1P_Ak3TWu4pxi1E6r1jFqx7syRBmJPaZ_8QV80Q7dz0wAM0eBvxNJw3rU

Yep, ZeroHedge published this article a few days ago.  It is speculation, but there may be some truth in it.  Nobody really knows though.

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

Theses from President Putin at a meeting on the problems of the Russian economy with the heads of oil and gas companies (March 1, 2020):
- the outbreak of coronavirus and its economic impact requires a special assessment of the response to what is happening on the part of Russia;
- against the background of the problems of the leading economies of the world and the general drop in demand, Brent oil quotes fell to $ 50 per barrel by February 28, 2020, whereas at the beginning of the year they were at $ 70 per barrel;
- today it is difficult to predict how long-term this trend will become, but in any case it is important for us to be prepared for a variety of scenarios;
- for the Russian economy and its budget, the current level of oil prices is acceptable;
- in the framework of our macroeconomic policy (budget rule) in 2020, $ 42.4 per barrel was taken as the base level for the price of Brent oil;
- Moreover, our accumulated reserves, incl. The National Welfare Fund (NWF) is sufficient to ensure a stable situation, the fulfillment of all budgetary and social obligations, even with the possible deterioration of the situation in the global economy.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Andrew Neopalimy

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

17 minutes ago, Andrew Neopalimy said:

ОПЕК + РОССИЯ встретятся в Вене 5-6 марта
- Российская Федерация определила свою позицию - накопленные резервы достаточны, а уровень цен на бренд остается приемлемым для российской экономики (президент России В.В. Путин).

1 марта В.В. Путин обсудил с руководителями нефтегазовых компаний влияние эпидемии коронавируса на мировую экономику и рынок нефти. Он сказал, что ситуация на рынке нефти приемлема для России.
Тезисы В. Путина о российской экономике:

• вспышка коронавируса и его экономическое воздействие требуют особой оценки реакции на происходящее со стороны России
• на фоне проблем экономического мира и мира. При общем снижении спроса на нефть марки марки Brent до 28 февраля 2020 года были выделены до 50 долларов за баррель.
• Мы не можем предсказать эту тенденцию.
• текущий уровень цен на нефть приемлемый,
• в рамках нашей макроэкономической политики на 2020 год цены на нефть марки Brent достигли 42,4 доллара за баррель.
• Более того, наши накопленные запасы, в т.ч. Фонд национального благосостояния (ФНБ) достаточно для обеспечения стабильной ситуации, выполнения всех бюджетных и социальных обязательств даже при возможном ухудшении ситуации в мировой экономике.

Тезисы В. Путина об ОПЕК +:

• эффективный механизм формата ОПЕК +,
• Этот механизм, который мы создали вместе с другими ведущими нефтяными странами, уже давно порекомендовал себя как эффективный инструмент обеспечения долгосрочной стабильности на мировых энергетических рынках,
• Мы должны были инвестировать в перспективные девелоперские проекты.

 

Please repost this in English.

[Marcin2 + 725]

1. 0R0 what is your opinion about total impact of COVID-19 on Chinese GDP in 2020 ?

A lot of small service businesses, would go bust.  I think it could be 10% in Q1 and 3% in Q2-Q4. 

2. I am afraid about South Korea and other densely populated countries. Intensity of COVID-19 spread in South Korea is already over Chinese at the peak of the epidemy, at about 10 new cases per 1 million citizens, it would be 14,000 in comparison in China.

Are they going to quarantine Daegu ? If it goes to Seoul it would be a disaster. The dense cities over 5 million people in urban core cannot function without metro. In US it is only New York and perchaps Chicago so the risk is low. In South Korea Seoul is 20% of population, you paralize Seoul you paralize whole South Korea.

In Italy it is less concentrated, and the cities: Milan, Torino, Roma, Napoli are relatively small with small urban cores.

3. I do not have time to follow COVID-19 in different news, is there any dedicated site with sth over media hype.

I find wikipedia useful in daily statistics, for example it shows number of new cases, recoveries and deaths ( and how COVID-10 was and is concentrated in Hubei and Wuhan, I think quarantine was instrumental).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_in_February_2020

Edited March 3, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[Marcin2 + 725]

3 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

Please repost this in English.

 

The post concentrates on impact of coronavirus on oil prices and thus on Russian economy, and that impact will not be very adverse as in Russian economic policy assumptions (budget) the level of crude oil prices for 2020 was below current 50, at 42.4, and that they have cushion of foreign reserves.

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

59 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

1. 0R0 what is your opinion about total impact of COVID-19 on Chinese GDP in 2020 ?

A lot of small service businesses, would go bust.  I think it could be 10% in Q1 and 3% in Q2-Q4. 

 

I know this was aimed at Oro but I think its too early to tell until we know the full impact on the Chinese economy and just how devastating and prolonged this virus is going to be.

I did find this but its beyond me how anyone can provide an accurate forecast with out the facts at hand with the current situation.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/forecast

I totally agree that many small to medium sized businesses most likely wont survive. I did post this 2 months ago based on one of my colleagues discussions with dozens of factory owners who were in deep s*it back then.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Worth watching, especially when Dr. Kim starts talking to Mr. Trump about how they built a vaccine IN 3 HOURS after getting the sequence. Apparently trying to start a human trial in April. Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence are backing it. (PS: The stock INO is up 70% today). 

 

https://www.c-span.org/video/?469926-1/president-trump-meeting-pharmaceutical-executives-coronavirus&vod

[Hotone + 412]

On 2/28/2020 at 9:40 PM, Anthony Okrongly said:

Wait... what?  There's a YOUTUBE vido?!? I didn't know there was a YOUTUBE video!  WOW!!! A real one? Unbelievable. Then the truth is out!  They've cracked the code.  Someone figured out how to make a YOUTUBE video! Have other people clicked on it?  I mean if someone went through all the trouble to make a youtube video AND other people have clicked on it... Then there's no argument against that. Rock Solid!!  It's a Chinese suicide weapon!  You see China decided there were too many people and their economy was doing too good.  They realized that the one thing they were missing was a complete shutdown on shipments and they had too many people going to work at their factories. So they magically developed a super virus (which no one has ever done) in their secret bunker lab with their Fu Manchu mustaches. Those dirty Commies! Let's nuke em!

Disclaimer... I'm not saying you're an idiot.  I'm just saying that anyone who would post this video is an idiot. Anyone who would believe this video is an idiot.  The only one who isn't is the guy getting revenue off the video.  He's a genius... probably a dirty Chinese communist posing as an American idiot.

I admit that the video is lame. I was disappointed when I received the link. I shouldn't have reposted it here

[GeoSciGuy + 74]

Does anybody know if the IMO 2020 regulations have been suspended during this outbreak?  

It would be interesting to know if the bureaucrats care more about IMO 2020 compliance than moving cargo as cheaply and quickly as possible during this global pandemic.