Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies

[GunnysGhost + 157]

The only potential benefit I can see to Communism is if they wholesale banned the grinding up of endangered species because it promotes health / libido / whathaveyou. 

Everywhere else it's useless.  And since they haven't done so yet, Communism is useless in China as well. 

[GunnysGhost + 157]

9 hours ago, notsonice said:

These are numbers from the The Beijinger

Total reported coronavirus cases in China (as of 1.17am Fri Jan 31)

• 8,163 confirmed
• 12,167 suspected
• 136 recovered
• 171 deaths

Please note the Dead are beating the Live (recovered) 171 to 136

Good luck to all in China and hope the spread worldwide is stopped fast and hard

 

So... just so I'm clear on this.... are those that contract (8000 yeasterday probably 12000 now).... STILL INFECTED?  

I've never heard of a 2-week old infection for which only 136 fevers would have broken out of 8000.  

That's the stuff of biochem horror novels.  

I hope I'm missing something 

[0R0 + 6,251]

"Beijing has sent more than 7,000 medical workers to Hubei to help fight the disease. As of Thursday, the province had reported 5,806 confirmed cases, with 32,340 people still under observation for infection. A total of 804 patients were in severe condition and 290 in critical condition."

9816 confirmed, 213 dead. 187 recovered.

SCMP

Note that there were 60k under observation only 2 days ago. So they are screening rapidly. other source I didn't bookmark gave 12K suspected cases. 

We still don't know how understated these official numbers are. 

If you have the 290 critical patients die and half of those in the severe condition category then you have likely 900 dead from the population confirmed, so about the same lethality as SARS and already about 20k infected. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

30 January  Note that the numbers are likely massively under-reported by the Chinese government.

 

Note how massively skewed the graph at the bottom is, straight out of the classic book "How To Lie With Statistics"

 

Speculation from a couple days ago:

 

Twitter feeds to monitor for local Chinese pix and vids of the situation:

Authoritative info (more or less):

https://twitter.com/search?q= %40CoronaVirusInfo&src=typd

https://twitter.com/search?q=%40PneumoniaWuhan&src=typd

Citizen journalism, reports, info, reactions:

https://twitter.com/search?q= %40CoronaVirusFlu&src=typd

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23coronavirus&src=typeahead_click

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23WuhanCoronavirus&src=typd

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23WuhanCoronavirusOutbreak&src=typeahead_click

 

[Rob Plant + 2,618]

First 2 confirmed cases in the UK!!!

[GunnysGhost + 157]

If you want to see a sea of facemasks, walk through an international airport right now (or rather don't). 

China's lies in the form of 'it's contained' may have screwed many people around the world. 

 

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

China is having a conniption about people replacing the stars on the Chinese flag with Coronaviris.  It's actually pretty witty, in my opinion.

 

Here's a better one, with a bat in the big star:

 

Dictatorships can't handle satire or humor very well.

[Bob D + 562]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12304547

 

Quote

Doubts have been raised about the official death toll, however, with claims Chinese authorities have been cremating bodies in secret.

Chinese-language news outlet Initium interviewed people working at local cremation centres in Wuhan, who said bodies were being sent directly from hospitals without being properly identified and added to the official record.

 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

What-ever slight API poll from last week showing slight demand now on this very last day of January, has reversed its-self into a monster glut as fear mongering on beer-virus has some nations locked down. So supply side will be good (hang-over), as consumption level is going to be key come next weeks usage report. My guess with China alone adds 3mbd extra to store on a daily basis.  Anyone have predictions for Tuesdays API and Wednesdays numbers??  Just curios as 10:30 am Friday sub 52bbl WTI and sub 57bbl Brent. 

[Bob D + 562]

Corona Virus lands in NYC!!!

Bloomberg TV    Headline Alert

 

EDIT - NYC Denies Asian man has corona virus.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/new-york-health-department-denies-report-of-possible-coronavirus-patient-in-city

Edited January 31, 2020 by Bob D

[0R0 + 6,251]

12 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23WuhanCoronavirusOutbreak&src=typeahead_click

The video of the drive along Wuhan streets with bodies laying on the sidewalks is chilling. The numbers are obviously on a greater order of magnitude than reported, particularly deaths, People are not making it to the hospital. Perhaps now that there is a dedicated facility some more of the ill will seek help there and be counted. 

 

[notsonice + 1,069]

One has to be thankful to all those that are dealing with those who are sickened, dying or dead. I am glad I am not one that has to risk my life trying to stop the evil little virus. A big thanks to those fighting the battle

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

The Babylon Bee Explains: Coronavirus

Well, this can't be good: the coronavirus is spreading faster than support for socialism, and it's only slightly less deadly. It's important to take precautions to avoid both the coronavirus and socialism, so we've thrown together this little explainer to help you navigate this frightening potential pandemic. We asked for advice from a lady who sells essential oils at our church and a woman on Facebook who posts about "gut health" a lot, so you can be sure this is incredibly accurate.

What is the coronavirus?

An alt-right conspiracy theory invented by Russian hackers to distract us all from the historic impeachment proceedings.

How can I tell if I have the coronavirus?

Go to WebMD and search your symptoms. You probably have either the coronavirus or cancer.  ...  

 

...  Will the coronavirus affect the economy?

Yes, many fear the coronavirus will take away the jobs of many hardworking, locally made viruses.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

“ If China contained the result of their own perversions, that would be one thing, but they're endangering the population of the world. More sanctions, Mr. Trump? “

So, the Chinese are apparently “endangering the world”, yet it is up to America/Trump to apply pressure to the Chinese government?

This is beginning to sound like a broken record. I guarantee you that if Trump took ANY action, that the rest of the world would crucify him and America in general.

Here is a novel idea, if YOUR country or citizens are being affected by this virus, then get YOUR county’s government to apply pressure!

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Gentlemen, keep a pinch of common sense. I spent the last month in West Africa from Senegal to Ghana and Togo.

At that time, I was for some period on a trip organized for one week from a respected Polish travel agency and then stayed on my own because charter flight with these agency cost me both ways only 400 dollars not more than 1500 dollars.

In the world, 200 million people suffer from malaria every year, and 0.5 million die mainly in Africa.

On my 20-person trip, 2 people took the malaria medicine, so only me and my brother. Conversations with a whole bunch of Europeans showed that maybe 10-15% of people were taking malarone as a prophylactic drug for malaria. Malaria can be infected at any time if you are unlucky and even as a result of using repellents, a mosquito will bite you. But a lot of  people don't use even these repellents.

I used Saharan outfit very light during that time to shield my body from mosquitoes. But a whole bunch of Europeans wore shorts and t-shirts.

Generally, few people care about malaria, and among the inhabitants of Africa it's probably almost nobody.

If I still haven't convinced someone in Sierra Leone and Liberia a few years ago there was an Ebola epidemic and the mess is so terrible that it may erupt again.

The fact is that in the year of the outbreak of Ebola there was a decline in tourists to West Africa, but a year later the situation returned to normal.

So far, the death rate of a new virus is about 2% and I think you have similar chances of developing malaria and a new virus, and the chances of death because of it are similar, and yet a Belgian from a charity organization told me that people are stupid enough hardly anyone cares about it, although in her mission in Gambia only three people died of malaria for the last year.

In addition, young Europeans do not avoid especially if they are properly oriented sexual contact with beautiful African young women and it just so happens that HIV can be infected in this way much easier than at home.

I omit a whole lot of diseases specific to underdeveloped Africa, which rarely anyone gets vaccinated because it costs at least $ 500 in Poland.

Well, but it's only known for centuries malaria and other severe African diseases and not a supernova virus with a mortality rate of 2%

Edited February 1, 2020 by Tomasz

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 1/27/2020 at 8:31 AM, luca mattei said:

China testing HIV drug (Aluvia) as treatment for new coronavirus, AbbVie says

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-abbvie-hiv-idUKKBN1ZP0Q8

 

Don't seem good news.
Like they're looking around to find something to solve the problem, but without concrete scientific basis.
Maybe for the hurry to do something...

There may well be more concrete basis than you knew. 

This virus has HIV insertions. More fuel to the fire saying it's a bio engineered weapon

[luca mattei + 15]

10 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

There may well be more concrete basis than you knew. 

This virus has HIV insertions. More fuel to the fire saying it's a bio engineered weapon

You're right, I was reading about this just a few hours ago ...

[Marcin2 + 724]

Most of people are not aware, how lucky we actually are, that it is China that was affected by this tragedy, and not any other of the densely populated Asian countries. (What if it happened in India, Indonesia or Bangladesh)

- Gene sequenced the genome and made it public on 10 Jan 2020, about 10 days after outbreak was identified as epidemy on 30-31 December 2019,

- Quarantined 50 million people on 23 Jan 2020,

- Mobilized vast medical, material and economic resources to fight the disease.

- Closed schools, factories, public transportation etc.

Per WHO assessment it was the best and most aggressive counter-reaction to the virus outbreak EVER. It probably saved millions of lives.

The virus outbreak happened at the worst place and the worst time (at top global transportation hub at a time of largest global seasonal holiday travel). The worst scenario possible.

The coincidence of these "worsts" have even caused the rise of many conspiracy theories: United States spread the virus in Wuhan as a bioweapon against Chinese rise (Russian's favourite), Rouge virus escaped from Wuhan lab that worked on bioweapons (all others favourite).

The data we have at present show that virus is very difficult to fight for some human organisms, and at the moment isolation is unfortunately  the only viable solution. The very low numbers of people that recovered (they get all these antiviral medicines, yet they are not helping much) show that individual fight wih the virus is relatively long as for virus infection. It is worse than most flu types.

We are lucky that the virus is not as contagious as typical flu.

Recent data show that we are reaching peak of epidemy intensity. Fortunately everything stayed in a relatively low numbers.

Epidemy of this type is the most dangerous for densely populated, large urban centers, with high people mobility.

That is why Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan (apart from China) are taking so aggressive measures.

I think all countries should have mandatory testing for all people coming from China, at gates, at airports.

Anybody that refuses testing should be put under 14 days quarantine.

[GunnysGhost + 157]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

...

I think all countries should have mandatory testing for all people coming from China, at gates, at airports.

Anybody that refuses testing should be put under 14 days quarantine.

I think the issue is now whether or not we'll see a spike if it establishes itself in another 3rd world country. 

A few cases in US / Britain are less worrying than a country that won't have quite the ability to quarantine.

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by GunnysGhost

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

Most of people are not aware, how lucky we actually are, that it is China that was affected by this tragedy, and not any other of the densely populated Asian countries. (What if it happened in India, Indonesia or Bangladesh)

- Gene sequenced the genome and made it public on 10 Jan 2020, about 10 days after outbreak was identified as epidemy on 30-31 December 2019,

- Quarantined 50 million people on 23 Jan 2020,

- Mobilized vast medical, material and economic resources to fight the disease.

- Closed schools, factories, public transportation etc.

Per WHO assessment it was the best and most aggressive counter-reaction to the virus outbreak EVER. It probably saved millions of lives.

The virus outbreak happened at the worst place and the worst time (at top global transportation hub at a time of largest global seasonal holiday travel). The worst scenario possible.

The coincidence of these "worsts" have even caused the rise of many conspiracy theories: United States spread the virus in Wuhan as a bioweapon against Chinese rise (Russian's favourite), Rouge virus escaped from Wuhan lab that worked on bioweapons (all others favourite).

The data we have at present show that virus is very difficult to fight for some human organisms, and at the moment isolation is unfortunately  the only viable solution. The very low numbers of people that recovered (they get all these antiviral medicines, yet they are not helping much) show that individual fight wih the virus is relatively long as for virus infection. It is worse than most flu types.

We are lucky that the virus is not as contagious as typical flu.

Recent data show that we are reaching peak of epidemy intensity. Fortunately everything stayed in a relatively low numbers.

Epidemy of this type is the most dangerous for densely populated, large urban centers, with high people mobility.

That is why Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan (apart from China) are taking so aggressive measures.

I think all countries should have mandatory testing for all people coming from China, at gates, at airports.

Anybody that refuses testing should be put under 14 days quarantine.

Umm I'm going to guess that Bangladesh, Indonesia and India don't have 5% of the airline traffic China does, nor the upwardly mobile affluent population who have no trouble flying across the country for New Years celebration. It could have been contained to a couple of villages there. 

[GunnysGhost + 157]

52 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Umm I'm going to guess that Bangladesh, Indonesia and India don't have 5% of the airline traffic China does, nor the upwardly mobile affluent population who have no trouble flying across the country for New Years celebration. It could have been contained to a couple of villages there. 

They also might not have the ability to observe, report, respond the way China does.

China has a huge presence in Eastern Africa right now.  Don't you find it odd that there are no reports of 'catching' it at customs?  0 cases on that continent (of very lucrative business) yet 4 different ports of entry in Australia, 2 in US, 1 in each of 8 EU countries. 

If it enters less stable countries, they won't know they even have an outbreak unless western observers report it is my guess.

Edited February 1, 2020 by GunnysGhost

[notsonice + 1,069]

Modeling the Spread of 2019-nCoV

By Lauren Gardner, January 26, 2020

Collaborators

This work is being led by Lauren Gardner at Johns Hopkins University CSSE, in collaboration with Aleksa Zlojutro and David Rey at rCITI at UNSW Sydney, and Ensheng Dong at JHU CSSE. At JHU, we have previously developed an interactive dashboard mapping the outbreak in real-time, and a written a blog.

 

Model Implementation

We implemented a previously published model that integrates both outbreak dynamics and outbreak control into a decision-support tool for mitigating infectious disease pandemics at the onset of an outbreak through border control Only a subset of U.S. airports are listed in the top 100 globally. A stochastic metapopulation epidemic simulation tool is used to simulate global outbreak dynamics, and the border control mechanism considered is passenger screening upon arrival at airports (entry screening), which is used to identify infected or at-risk individuals. More detail on the model is available in the supplementary file.

Our metapopulation model is based on a global network of local, city-level, populations connected by edges representing passenger air travel between cities. At each node of the network, we locally model outbreak dynamics using a discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. IATA monthly passenger travel volumes for all travel routes connecting airport pairs (including stopovers) is used to construct the weighted edges. The SEIR parameters are defined based on a 10 day period from exposure to recovery, aligning with a previously published report, divided into a 5 day latent period and 5 day recovery period. The effective contact rate corresponds to a reproductive number of 2, which aligns with an estimate from Imperial College London, reporting a  range between 1.5 and 3.5. We assume initial cases of 2019-nCoV are only present in Wuhan, and no border control is accounted for. The model results presented are based on an average of 250 runs.

Results

The simulation model is run for a time period between the start of the outbreak, up until January 25. We then estimate the expected number of cases in mainland China, as well as the global distribution of the infected travelers.

We estimate 40 cases of 2019-nCoV to have been exported outside of mainland China by January 25, as was reported, at which point we believe the number of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China are likely much higher than that reported throughout January. Specifically, we estimate there to be around 20,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China on January 25 (at which time closer to 2000 were reported). We also estimate there were already hundreds of human cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan in early December. The estimated verses confirmed cases during January are presented in Figure 1. Our estimates are slightly higher than those from two other modeling exercises, namely, a report out of Imperial College estimated 4000 cases in mainland China on January 18, and a report out of Northeastern University estimated 12,700 on January 24. However, there was a substantial and rapid increase in reported cases outside of China during these dates, which is still occurring, and likely to lead to higher estimates than those in this study.

Figure 1. Estimated vs. Reported Cases of 2019 n-CoV cases globally.

The simulation provides the expected number of imported cases arriving at each airport globally (based on final travel destinations of travelers) as of Jan 25.  By aggregating this over all airports in a country we can estimate the total number of imported cases in each country. Figure 2 below illustrates our estimated number of imported cases arriving in each country compared with the number of 2019-nCoV reported cases as of January 26.  The results align with the number of air travel reported cases outside of mainland China early in the outbreak. Specifically, the 12 countries/regions we identify at highest risk have all reported at least one case.

Figure 2. List of Countries/Regions with highest risk of imported 2019-nCoV cases.

We further present the results at the airport level (based on their final travel destination), to identify the set of cities inside and outside China at highest risk of case importation. The top 50 airports in China and outside of China are illustrated in Figure 3 and 4 below, respectively, and listed in Table 1 and 2 in the supplementary file. The cities at highest risk are generally those in China that receive high direct or indirect travel from WUH. While many of the cities outside China that we identify at high risk have already reported cases, these cities should be prepared for additional cases to be reported over the coming days, likely in travelers whom departed Wuhan before the travel ban was implemented on January 23. In the U.S., our high risk airports have already been designated for screening by the CDC, namely LAX, JFK, SFO, ATL and ORD. By considering complete travel paths (with stopover airports), we identify additional airports that are at risk of exposure to infected travelers, and suggest the international airports in Seattle, Washington-Dulles, Newark, Detroit, Boston, Houston, Las Vegas, Dallas Fort Worth and Honolulu in the U.S., also be considered for enhanced screening and security.

Figure 3. Map of the 50 Highest risk airports for 2019-nCoV arriving travelers within mainland China.

Figure 4. Map of the 50 Highest risk airports for 2019-nCoV arriving travelers outside mainland China.

Limitations

There are multiple modeling assumptions and limitations that should be noted regarding the results presented.

• In the day after this analysis was completed, travel reported cases increased by 40%, from 40 to 56. Therefore, it is likely the estimated number of cases reported in this study are a lower bound.
• There is still uncertainty about the transmission of 2019-nCoV, specifically surrounding the reproductive number and incubation period. The parameters chosen in this analysis fall in the uncertainty intervals provided to date. However, the substantial increase in cases being reported in late January indicate the parameters we used are too conservative, and the incubation period may be longer than we specified here, thus we are underestimating risk. More data will help us finer tune our estimates.
• Asymptomatic infections are not considered. If asymptomatic infections prove capable of spreading the virus, then these results would be further underestimating risk.
• The model only accounts for passenger air travel, and excludes mobility within and between cities via other modes of transport. Therefore, the spreading risk between regions connected via alternatives modes of travel is underestimated. This is most applicable to spread within China, which we are underestimating.
• The SEIR parameters used to model the outbreak within each city are deterministic. However, the spread of infected travelers moving between cities is modeled stochastically.
• Arrival passenger screening at airports and the complete air travel ban implemented in Wuhan on January 23 are not accounted for in this analysis. However, it is unlikely these policies impact the results presented, which are based on the start of the outbreak until January 25.
• No local control mechanisms (prophylaxtics, vaccines, school closures, quarantine efforts) within cities are accounted for. Thus, the reproductive number is assumed to be constant over time, and across all locations.
• We are using 2015 Travel data, because that is the most recent complete (airport-to-airport) data we had available in the lab. 

[notsonice + 1,069]

the above article should scare the crap out of everyone especially the comment

Specifically, we estimate there to be around 20,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China on January 25 (at which time closer to 2000 were reported). We also estimate there were already hundreds of human cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan in early December.

 

[Marcin2 + 724]

5 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Gentlemen, keep a pinch of common sense. I spent the last month in West Africa from Senegal to Ghana and Togo.

In the world, 200 million people suffer from malaria every year, and 0.5 million die mainly in Africa.

The fact is that in the year of the outbreak of Ebola there was a decline in tourists to West Africa, but a year later the situation returned to normal.

So far, the death rate of a new virus is about 2% and I think you have similar chances of developing malaria and a new virus, and the chances of death because of it are similar, and yet a Belgian from a charity organization told me that people are stupid enough hardly anyone cares about it, although in her mission in Gambia only three people died of malaria for the last year.

Well, but it's only known for centuries malaria and other severe African diseases and not a supernova virus with a mortality rate of 2%

Actually 1 million people a year die out of malaria, mainly in Subsaharan Africa, vast majority of them kids under 5.

but people's lives have different media value, economic value and political value, on the basis of the country/region they come from.

It is very sad but it is true.

Death of 1 kid out of malaria, age under 5  in Subsaharan Africa is 0 media value, -10,000 USD economic value and 0 political value.

Nobody cares. Really.

Chinese (but only since Donald Trump elevated China to equal to the United States superpower status through his proChina PR campaign and later trade and technology conflict) are tier 1 nationalities now, like Americans, in media value and in political value.

Because China is still upper middle income country, the economic value is not equal to US life economic value, but still about 1 million US dollars.

So 258 Chinese lives matter.

(I do not know exact data, ask your local insurer or government agency, they need such data for planning, of health care costs in particular)

[GunnysGhost + 157]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

the above article should scare the crap out of everyone especially the comment

Specifically, we estimate there to be around 20,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China on January 25 (at which time closer to 2000 were reported). We also estimate there were already hundreds of human cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan in early December.

 

Agreed.  There are a lot of assumptions in the 'quarantine' argument.  Namely that it hadn't spread from Wuhan province, and therefore only flights out of Wuhan should be halted.

The problem is we know for a fact that it had spread to every region of China.  And those ports of exit have not halted flights.  US and EU airports are accepting thousands / millions of folks from these high-risk areas of China.  But the bigger worry in regards to 'global pandemic' are places like Africa, S. America, etc.  I think it is safe to assume there are unreported / undetected cases there.  Whether the disease gets established in more than one region or not is to be seen.

Edited February 2, 2020 by GunnysGhost